Baseball trivia

Trivia

The Baseball Crank, playing with Baseball-Reference's Play Index, came up with a trivia question this morning: "11 Hall of Fame pitchers have had a season with an ERA of 5.00 or higher in enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. One of those did it twice in his career. Name him."
(The whole list is here.)

I didn't get it (nor did I really expect to). But it, and the comments, started me thinking about a couple of things.

League Context

One commenter noted that, "I was amazed at how many times Eckersley showed up in the 4.00 - 5.00 range"

That, it seems to me, is largely a function of league context. Eckersley pitched in the 1980s and 1990s, and it was a lot easier to put up a 5.00 ERA in the AL in the 1980s than it was to put up a 5.00 in the NL in the 1960s. (There were 7 pitchers who qualified for ERA titles with an ERA of 5+ in the NL from 1960-1969 - there were 23 pitchers who qualified for ERA titles with an ERA of 5+ in the AL from 1980-1989. From 1990-1999, when Eckersley was still pitching, there were 68 AL pitchers qualifying for ERA titles with ERAs of 5.00 or more, including 8 pitchers over 6.00.) If you account for context by sorting on ERA+ rather than ERA, you see that Eckersley's 1983 season, the 3rd worst by ERA for a Hall of Fame pitcher, drops down to 8th. And Eckersley is currently the only Hall of Fame pitcher who spent any significant amount of time as a starter (thus qualifying for the ERA title) whose career started after 1966. Eckersley made his debut in 1975, nine years after Don Sutton and Nolan Ryan. Eckersley is the only current Hall of Famer whose career spans the 1980s and 1990s. (Obviously, Clemens, Maddux and Glavine will join him, eventually.)

Below average pitching seasons from HoF pitchers

So, just out of curiousity, I decided to see how many below average pitching seasons were compiled by Hall of Fame pitchers.

There have been 136 seasons with an ERA+ of 99 or less, and enough innings pitched to qualify for the ERA title, compiled by pitchers who are currently in the Hall of Fame. Four of them are Dennis Eckersley's, which is tied with 7 others - Catfish Hunter, Chief Bender, Gaylord Perry, Herb Pennock, Robin Roberts, Rube Marquard and Vic Willis. Nolan Ryan and Burleigh Grimes each had five below-average seasons. Red Ruffing and Pud Galvin had six each. Don Sutton had seven. And Early Wynn did it eight times in 23 seasons.

Early Wynn (and Bert Blyleven)

Which raises another question - how did Early Wynn get into the Hall of Fame? Well, the answer to that, I think, is pretty straightforward. He won exactly 300 games, one of the magic numbers that gets players inducted. And certainly, there's tremendous value to being able to pitch for 23 seasons, even if over 1/3 of them were below average. Just looking at the numbers (and that's pretty much all I can do, since his last season was the year I was born), he doesn't look like a great pitcher. He looks like a good pitcher for a long time. But consider these lines:

Pitcher Comparison

	W	L	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	K/BB	ERA	*lgERA	*ERA	WHIP
Pitcher A	300	244	691	612	4564	4291	2037	1796	338	1775	2334	1.31	3.54	3.77	107	1.329
Pitcher B	287	250	692	685	4970	4632	2029	1830	430	1322	3701	2.80	3.31	3.9	118	1.198

These were both long, productive careers. But pitcher B allowed fewer runs in more innings, had more strikeouts and fewer walks, and compiled a better raw ERA in tougher run prevention environments, for a significantly better ERA+. Pitcher A is Hall of Famer Early Wynn. Pitcher B is the guy that the BBWAA has not yet inducted, Bert Blyleven. The only real advantage that Wynn has is in wins and losses, and that is far more likely to be a result of team performance rather than pitching performance. Wynn pitched for teams that finished with an average record of 82-73, a .530 winning percentage. Blyleven pitched for teams that averaged 80-78, a .507 winning percentage. Wynn's .551 winning percentage exceeds his team's winning percentage by 4.2%, while Blyleven's .534 exceeds his team's winning percentage by 5.4%.

This did not, by the way, start out as another "Bert Blyleven should be in the Hall of Fame" argument. It just ended up there... ;-)

Best and worst baseball names - current prospects

The Baseball Crank has identified the best and worst names of current MLB prospects, and it's a lot of fun.

From the "worst" list:
1. Billy Buckner (P-KC). Might as well legally add "no relation" to the end of his name.


And, from the best list:
6. Nick Noonan (2B-SF). Admit it: you want to add "Private Eye" at the end. The streets of San Francisco are his beat.

Timing is everything - AL Cy Young edition

I made a comment following game 1 of the ALCS that no potential Cy Young winner ever benefited more from the ballots being cast before the post-season started than C.C. Sabathia did this year. Game 5 just exacerbates that. When the balloting happened, I suspect that Sabathia won, though we won't know for a while. If they were to vote today, I think Beckett wins, and it isn't close. It is almost astounding how much things have changed over just three starts.

Post-season performance

	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	IP/G
Sabathia	3	15 1/3	8.8	2.283	5.11
Beckett	3	23	1.17	0.609	7.67

This is where they were before the post-season started.

Through the end of the regular season

	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	IP/G
Sabathia	34	241	3.21	1.141	7.09
Beckett	30	200 2/3	3.27	1.141	6.69

Based on ERA+, strikeout rate and some other stuff, I think Beckett pitched better than Sabathia, but not a lot better. And Sabathia had a huge innings advantage. But they've each taken the mound three times since balloting ended.

Through Game 5 of the ALCS

	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	IP/G
Sabathia	37	256 1/3	3.55	1.24	6.93
Beckett	33	223 2/3	3.06	1.11	6.78

Look at how much those numbers have changed based on just three more starts. Sabathia went from a very small raw ERA advantage to a pretty big disadvantage. Beckett closed the innings gap without closing the games started gap. Just an enormous difference, and if the Cy Young voting took place today, based on everything that's happened so far, it's a no-brainer that Beckett should win.

Monday Pythagorean - 10/1

The Boston Red Sox are the 2007 AL East division Champions.

- When Okajima and Papelbon blew that 7-2 lead against the Yankees two weeks ago, it resulted in a last week and a half that was a little bit tenser than it otherwise might have been. But the other thing that happened was it put me off by one game on each the Red Sox and Yankees from my pre-season predictions.
"My prediction: The Red Sox win 97 games and the AL East. The Yankees win 93 and the AL Wild Card."

Me, 4/2/07

Final record: The Red Sox win 96 games and the AL East. The Yankees win 94 and the AL Wild Card. Had Okajima and Papelbon held that game, I'd have been exactly right. That NEVER happens...

- I've said repeatedly that you can't predict what will happen in any short series. I believe it. That said, I think that the Red Sox are a better team than the Angels right now, I like the Red Sox offense better, I like the Red Sox starters better and I like the home field advantage. I think that the Red Sox are likely to win this series. But there will be four different divisional playoffs over the course of the next two weeks, and there is no team who will win that will surprise me. That's the way baseball works.

- Over at Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver has updated the "Secret Sauce" rankings. The BP Secret Sauce consists of three pitching/defense related statistics that have been shown to correlate with post-season success. The best team in baseball? Your Boston Red Sox.

According to the Secret Sauce standings, the ALCS should be Boston vs. New York. Again. The NLCS should be Chicago vs. Philadelphia. And the Red Sox should beat the Cubs in the World Series.

Go ahead. Put money on it. I dare you... ;-)

- I'll have more over the next couple of weeks...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 10/1/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.35	(3)	4.06	(1)	0.624	(1)	101	61	96	66	-5
New York	5.98	(1)	4.8	(7)	0.599	(2)	97	65	94	68	-3
Cleveland	5.01	(6)	4.35	(3)	0.564	(3)	91	71	96	66	5
Los Angeles	5.07	(4)	4.51	(5)	0.553	(4)	90	72	94	68	4
Detroit	5.48	(2)	4.92	(9)	0.549	(5)	89	73	88	74	-1
Toronto	4.65	(10)	4.31	(2)	0.534	(6)	87	75	83	79	-4
Minnesota	4.43	(12)	4.48	(4)	0.496	(7)	80	82	79	83	-1
Oakland	4.57	(11)	4.68	(6)	0.49	(8)	79	83	76	86	-3
Seattle	4.9	(7)	5.02	(10)	0.489	(9)	79	83	88	74	9
Texas	5.04	(5)	5.21	(12)	0.485	(10)	79	83	75	87	-4
Kansas City	4.36	(13)	4.8	(8)	0.456	(11)	74	88	69	93	-5
Baltimore	4.67	(9)	5.36	(13)	0.437	(12)	71	91	69	93	-2
Tampa Bay	4.83	(8)	5.83	(14)	0.415	(13)	67	95	66	96	-1
Chicago	4.28	(14)	5.18	(11)	0.413	(14)	67	95	72	90	5

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	96	66
Cleveland	96	66
New York	94	68
Los Angeles	94	68
Detroit	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	96	66
Cleveland	96	66
New York	94	68
Los Angeles	94	68
Detroit	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	5.67	(5)	2.83	(1)	0.78	(1)	5	1	3	3	-2
Boston	5.83	(4)	3.83	(3)	0.683	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Cleveland	4.57	(8)	3.29	(2)	0.647	(3)	5	2	4	3	-1
Texas	5.67	(5)	4.17	(5)	0.637	(4)	4	2	3	3	-1
Toronto	6.14	(3)	4.71	(7)	0.619	(5)	4	3	5	2	1
New York	7.43	(1)	5.71	(12)	0.618	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Chicago	4.83	(7)	4.33	(6)	0.55	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Seattle	4.14	(10)	3.86	(4)	0.533	(8)	4	3	5	2	1
Baltimore	6.29	(2)	8	(14)	0.391	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Tampa Bay	4.5	(9)	6	(13)	0.371	(10)	2	4	2	4	0
Kansas City	2.86	(11)	4.71	(7)	0.286	(11)	2	5	2	5	0
Minnesota	2.86	(11)	4.86	(9)	0.275	(12)	2	5	3	4	1
Oakland	2.8	(14)	5	(10)	0.257	(13)	1	4	1	4	0
Los Angeles	2.83	(13)	5.33	(11)	0.239	(14)	1	5	2	4	1

Monday Pythagorean - 9/24

One more week of the regular season, and all that remains is setting rotations, resting players, re-integrating returning players. Oh, and deciding the play-off seeding.

• With 6 games remaining for Boston and 7 for New York, the Red Sox have a 1 game lead in the loss column. The Yankees win the East if they tie. So basically, the situation is this. If the Red Sox lose more games than the Yankees this week, the Yankees win the east. Otherwise, the Red Sox do.



• Boston, New York, Anaheim and Cleveland will be the four AL playoff teams. Boston cannot play New York in the first round, but everything else is up for grabs. Each one of those teams has 63-65 losses. Any of the four could finish with the best record in baseball, any could finish with the 4th best record in the AL.



• It is clear that the four best records in the AL are going to be playing post-season ball. It is also very likely that absent the Wild Card, one of the two best teams would be sitting home.



• I had some things to say about last week's action, but I've pretty much already said them...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/24/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.33	(3)	4.06	(1)	0.622	(1)	97	59	92	64	-5
New York	5.91	(1)	4.75	(7)	0.598	(2)	93	62	90	65	-3
Los Angeles	5.16	(4)	4.48	(5)	0.564	(3)	88	68	92	64	4
Cleveland	5.03	(5)	4.39	(3)	0.561	(4)	87	68	92	63	5
Detroit	5.47	(2)	5	(9)	0.541	(5)	84	72	85	71	1
Toronto	4.58	(11)	4.3	(2)	0.529	(6)	82	73	78	77	-4
Minnesota	4.5	(12)	4.46	(4)	0.505	(7)	78	77	76	79	-2
Oakland	4.63	(9)	4.67	(6)	0.496	(8)	78	79	75	82	-3
Seattle	4.94	(7)	5.07	(10)	0.488	(9)	76	79	83	72	7
Texas	5.01	(6)	5.25	(13)	0.479	(10)	75	81	72	84	-3
Kansas City	4.43	(13)	4.81	(8)	0.462	(11)	72	83	67	88	-5
Baltimore	4.59	(10)	5.24	(12)	0.44	(12)	68	87	66	89	-2
Tampa Bay	4.84	(8)	5.82	(14)	0.416	(13)	65	91	64	92	-1
Chicago	4.26	(14)	5.21	(11)	0.408	(14)	64	92	68	88	4

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	96	66
Los Angeles	96	66
Cleveland	96	66
New York	94	68
Detroit	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	96	66
Cleveland	96	66
Los Angeles	95	67
New York	94	68
Detroit	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	7.5	(1)	4.5	(6)	0.718	(1)	4	2	5	1	1
Chicago	5	(4)	3.29	(1)	0.683	(2)	5	2	4	3	-1
Toronto	6.17	(2)	4.67	(8)	0.625	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Seattle	5.57	(3)	4.29	(5)	0.618	(4)	4	3	5	2	1
Cleveland	5	(4)	4.17	(4)	0.583	(5)	3	3	5	1	2
Los Angeles	4.57	(6)	3.86	(3)	0.577	(6)	4	3	5	2	1
Minnesota	4.5	(7)	3.83	(2)	0.573	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Detroit	4.5	(7)	5	(10)	0.452	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Boston	4.17	(10)	4.67	(8)	0.448	(9)	3	3	2	4	-1
Texas	3.71	(11)	4.57	(7)	0.406	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Oakland	4.33	(9)	5.67	(12)	0.38	(11)	2	4	1	5	-1
Baltimore	3.57	(12)	5.71	(14)	0.297	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Tampa Bay	3.5	(13)	5.67	(12)	0.293	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
Kansas City	3.14	(14)	5.14	(11)	0.289	(14)	2	5	3	4	1

Red Sox Magic Number - September 23 - Play-off berth clinched

The Red Sox victory over Tampa Bay on Saturday night, combined with the Tigers' loss to Kansas City, means that Boston becomes the the first team to clinch a play-off berth in 2007. (The Angels are guaranteed at least a tie for the AL West and/or the Wild Card and the Indians are guaranteed at least a tie for the AL Central, but Boston has actually clinched one of the four play-off spots.)

The magic number for the Red Sox to win the AL East is 6, with seven games remaining.

If Boston goes 6-1 (.857), they win the East
If Boston goes 5-2 (.714), Yankees need to go 7-1 (.875) to win.
If Boston goes 4-3 (.571), Yankees need to go 6-2 (.750) to win.
If Boston goes 3-4 (.429), Yankees need to go 5-3 (.625) to win.
If Boston goes 2-5 (.286), Yankees need to go 4-4 (.500) to win.
If Boston goes 1-6 (.143), Yankees need to go 3-5 (.375) to win.
If Boston goes 0-7 (.000), Yankees need to go 2-6 (.250) to win.

Power outage

The Baseball Crank has been looking at the power decline in the Major Leagues this year, and has some interesting stuff...

Eric Gagne's trail of woe

On July 31, the Red Sox acquired closer Eric Gagne from Texas, adding to a strength, as they already had the most effective bullpen in the AL. The idea was to bolster the bullpen, shorten the game, and give Okajima and Papelbon a little more rest. The move was universally praised. I thought that it was a smart move - I still think that it was a smart move. There will be second-guessers mocking the front office for this one, but I won't be one of them. You judge a move based on what you know at the time. It looked like a good idea.

But it has been a disaster. A complete and total disaster. The magnitude of the problem can be understood when you say that they'd have been far better off had Gagne gotten hurt before ever taking the mound for the team. While it's rare that you can ever blame one player for a loss, a late inning reliever has to take that responsibility when he blows it. This team has four losses for which Gagne is directly responsible.

1. Friday, August 10 - Boston's bats rally in the 8th at Baltimore, and they take 5-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th. Gagne comes in and allows 4 runs while retiring one batter. Boston loses, 6-5.


2. Sunday, August 12 - Two days later, Boston takes a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th. Gagne comes in, walks the first batter, gives up a 2-run homer to the third. Boston loses in 10, 6-3.


3. Friday, August 17 - Five days after that, poised to take a double-header from the Angels after the Red Sox batters against score 4 in the bottom of the 8th, Gagne comes out to protect a 5-4 lead. He gives up 3 runs after retiring the first batter, and Boston loses 7-5.


4. Tuesday, September 18 - An excellent performance by Jon Lester brings the Red Sox to the 8th inning with a 2-1 lead. Gagne retires the first two Toronto batters in the bottom of the 8th. Walk, single, walk loads the bases. Walk ties the game. Double drives in two more. Boston scores one in the 9th, but loses 4-3.

And the magic number is still 9, and the lead is down to 2 in the loss column, and there are four games which they almost certainly would have won had they not made the deadline trade for Gagne, and there aren't any games to point at on the plus side, games where he has made a positive difference.

He has allowed at least one run in 7 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed the tying or go-ahead run in 4 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed one or more baserunners in 14 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed 30 baserunners in just 14 innings. He's allowed 14 runs, for an ERA of 9.00.

He has, in short, been a disaster.

Update: Baseball Crank emails: "Eric Gagne is French for Calvin Schiraldi."

Monday Pythagorean - 9/17

The Red Sox lost 3 times this week, the Yankees lost twice. They go into the last two weeks with Boston up 4 1/2, 4 in the loss column, with a magic number of 9.

• Many people conceded the AL East to the Red Sox back in May, some even in April. I was not one of them. Had they won last night, I'd have called it this morning. But they didn't. And, again, because of last night, New York wins the season series, and wins the division if they finish in a tie. So I'm not willing to call it yet. I still believe that Boston holds on and wins the East, but they need to keep winning, at least a little bit longer.



• I had a debate a couple of weeks ago with someone who thought Francona had done a poor job with the pitching staff this year, leaving starters in too long. I disagreed, but Schilling shouldn't have been pitching the 8th last night. That was a mistake.



• The week could have been better, as two of the best relief pitchers in baseball this year had their least effective outings of the season on the same night Friday. On the other hand, it could easily have been worse, as they were down by 7 early on Tuesday, and down to their last out on Wednesday before winning both of those games. On the whole, they needed to get through the week with their lead intact, and they basically did. They went into the weekend needing 1 win to maintain control of the division, and they did that.



• In the race for the best record in baseball (the top 4 teams are all in the AL), Boston currently leads both Cleveland and LAnaheim by 2 1/2, 2 in the loss column.



• Three in Toronto, three in Tampa Bay this week, and that will close the road portion of the Red Sox schedule.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/17/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.38	(3)	4.04	(1)	0.628	(1)	94	56	90	60	-4
New York	5.85	(1)	4.77	(7)	0.592	(2)	88	61	85	64	-3
Los Angeles	5.19	(4)	4.51	(5)	0.564	(3)	84	65	87	62	3
Cleveland	5.03	(6)	4.4	(3)	0.56	(4)	83	66	87	62	4
Detroit	5.51	(2)	5	(9)	0.544	(5)	82	68	83	67	1
Toronto	4.52	(11)	4.28	(2)	0.524	(6)	78	71	74	75	-4
Minnesota	4.5	(12)	4.48	(4)	0.502	(7)	75	74	72	77	-3
Oakland	4.64	(9)	4.63	(6)	0.501	(8)	76	75	74	77	-2
Texas	5.07	(5)	5.28	(12)	0.482	(9)	72	77	70	79	-2
Seattle	4.91	(7)	5.11	(10)	0.481	(10)	71	77	78	70	7
Kansas City	4.49	(13)	4.79	(8)	0.47	(11)	70	78	64	84	-6
Baltimore	4.64	(10)	5.22	(11)	0.447	(12)	66	82	64	84	-2
Tampa Bay	4.89	(8)	5.83	(14)	0.421	(13)	63	87	63	87	0
Chicago	4.22	(14)	5.3	(13)	0.397	(14)	59	90	64	85	5

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	97	65
Los Angeles	95	67
Cleveland	95	67
New York	92	70
Detroit	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	98	64
Los Angeles	94	68
Cleveland	94	68
New York	93	69
Detroit	90	72

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Cleveland	5.33	(6)	3.33	(1)	0.703	(1)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	6.83	(2)	4.67	(6)	0.668	(2)	4	2	3	3	-1
Los Angeles	6.67	(3)	4.83	(7)	0.643	(3)	4	2	3	3	-1
Oakland	7.71	(1)	5.86	(11)	0.623	(4)	4	3	5	2	1
Detroit	4.86	(8)	4	(2)	0.588	(5)	4	3	6	1	2
Tampa Bay	5.43	(5)	5	(8)	0.538	(6)	4	3	3	4	-1
New York	4.5	(9)	4.17	(3)	0.535	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Chicago	4.5	(9)	5	(8)	0.452	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Texas	6.14	(4)	6.86	(13)	0.45	(9)	3	4	2	5	-1
Minnesota	3.67	(12)	4.17	(3)	0.442	(10)	3	3	2	4	-1
Baltimore	5.17	(7)	7.33	(14)	0.345	(11)	2	4	3	3	1
Kansas City	3.17	(14)	4.5	(5)	0.345	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Toronto	3.57	(13)	5.14	(10)	0.339	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Seattle	3.86	(11)	6.29	(12)	0.29	(14)	2	5	3	4	1

Red Sox Magic Number - September 16

Well, post-game September 15, anyway. The Magic Number is down to 9.

If Boston goes 9-4 (.692), they win the East
If Boston goes 8-5 (.615), Yankees need to go 14-0 (1.000) to tie.
If Boston goes 7-6 (.538), Yankees need to go 13-1 (.929) to tie.
If Boston goes 6-7 (.462), Yankees need to go 12-2 (.857) to tie.
If Boston goes 5-8 (.385), Yankees need to go 11-3 (.786) to tie.
If Boston goes 4-9 (.308), Yankees need to go 10-4 (.714) to tie.
If Boston goes 3-10 (.231), Yankees need to go 9-5 (.643) to tie.
If Boston goes 2-11 (.154), Yankees need to go 8-6 (.571) to tie.
If Boston goes 1-12 (.077), Yankees need to go 7-7 (.500) to tie.
If Boston goes 0-13 (.000), Yankees need to go 6-8 (.429) to tie.

Red Sox Magic Number - September 14

Toronto's 2-1 win over New York on Thursday raised Boston's lead in the AL East to 5 1/2 games, 5 in the loss column. Their magic number for winning their first division title in 12 years is now 11.


If Boston goes 11-4 (.733), they win the East
If Boston goes 10-5 (.667), Yankees need to go 16-0 (1.000) to tie.
If Boston goes 9-6 (.600), Yankees need to go 15-1 (.938) to tie.
If Boston goes 8-7 (.533), Yankees need to go 14-2 (.875) to tie.
If Boston goes 7-8 (.467), Yankees need to go 13-3 (.813) to tie.
If Boston goes 6-9 (.400), Yankees need to go 12-4 (.750) to tie.
If Boston goes 5-10 (.333), Yankees need to go 11-5 (.688) to tie.
If Boston goes 4-11 (.267), Yankees need to go 10-6 (.625) to tie.
If Boston goes 3-12 (.200), Yankees need to go 9-7 (.563) to tie.
If Boston goes 2-13 (.133), Yankees need to go 8-8 (.500) to tie.
If Boston goes 1-14 (.067), Yankees need to go 7-9 (.438) to tie.
If Boston goes 0-15 (.000), Yankees need to go 6-10 (.375) to tie.


Chris' take on the Red Sox magic number 11

Monday Pythagorean - 9/10

Red Sox go 5-2, Yankees go 5-1. The lead goes from 6 to 5 1/2, the magic number drops from 20 to 14.

• There is one big concern in Red Sox nation right now. Daisuke Matsuzaka's last three starts have seen him allow 20 earned runs in just 14 1/3 innings. Has the league figured him out? Has he got an injury? Is he just worn down? Whatever has caused it, this is a major problem if they don't get him straightened out. He won't keep them from making the play-offs (the magic number to eliminate Detroit and Seattle is 10 with 18 to play) but if he can't pitch effectively, their odds of winning in the post-season drop significantly.



• This coming weekend, New York travels to Boston for the last 3 of this season's head-to-head games. In the regular season. A Yankee sweep would put the division in play, a Red Sox sweep would effectively end it. Even 2-of-3 by the Sox would probably put it out of reach. We'll know, a week from now, whether the division race is essentially over, or if we have a two-week sprint for the crown.



• Three up against the Devil Rays. Once again, they get Kazmir. The best pitcher they've got, does he ever miss a series against Boston? Most of the times, teams play 3 game series, so there's about a 60% chance of seeing a team's best pitcher in any given series. Tonight's game will be Kazmir's fifth start against Boston this year. They hit him last time - the two appearances before that, he held them scoreless for 6. It would be nice to sweep this series, guaranteeing that the lead is at least 5 1/2 when the Yankees come in on Friday, but I'm not willing to predict it.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/10/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.32	(3)	4.01	(1)	0.626	(1)	90	54	87	57	-3
New York	5.9	(1)	4.79	(7)	0.594	(2)	85	58	81	62	-4
Los Angeles	5.13	(4)	4.5	(4)	0.56	(3)	80	63	84	59	4
Cleveland	5.01	(6)	4.45	(3)	0.555	(4)	79	64	83	60	4
Detroit	5.54	(2)	5.05	(9)	0.542	(5)	78	65	77	66	-1
Toronto	4.56	(10)	4.24	(2)	0.534	(6)	76	66	72	70	-4
Minnesota	4.54	(12)	4.5	(4)	0.504	(7)	72	71	70	73	-2
Oakland	4.49	(13)	4.57	(6)	0.492	(8)	71	73	69	75	-2
Seattle	4.96	(7)	5.05	(10)	0.492	(9)	69	72	75	66	6
Texas	5.02	(5)	5.2	(12)	0.484	(10)	69	73	68	74	-1
Kansas City	4.54	(11)	4.8	(8)	0.475	(11)	67	75	62	80	-5
Baltimore	4.62	(9)	5.13	(11)	0.452	(12)	64	78	61	81	-3
Tampa Bay	4.87	(8)	5.87	(14)	0.415	(13)	59	84	60	83	1
Chicago	4.21	(14)	5.31	(13)	0.395	(14)	56	87	61	82	5

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	98	64
Los Angeles	95	67
Cleveland	94	68
New York	92	70
Detroit	87	75

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	98	64
Los Angeles	95	67
Cleveland	94	68
New York	92	70
Detroit	87	75

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	7.17	(1)	3.67	(2)	0.773	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Cleveland	5	(9)	3.29	(1)	0.683	(2)	5	2	5	2	0
Tampa Bay	6.67	(2)	5	(6)	0.629	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Detroit	5.17	(7)	4.5	(4)	0.563	(4)	3	3	4	2	1
Texas	6.17	(3)	5.5	(9)	0.552	(5)	3	3	5	1	2
Boston	5.86	(4)	5.43	(8)	0.535	(6)	4	3	5	2	1
Los Angeles	4.43	(14)	4.43	(3)	0.5	(7)	4	3	4	3	0
Toronto	5.33	(6)	5.33	(7)	0.5	(7)	3	3	2	4	-1
Chicago	4.5	(13)	4.67	(5)	0.483	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Kansas City	4.67	(12)	5.5	(9)	0.425	(10)	3	3	1	5	-2
Oakland	4.83	(10)	6.5	(11)	0.368	(11)	2	4	1	5	-1
Minnesota	4.83	(10)	6.5	(11)	0.368	(11)	2	4	1	5	-1
Baltimore	5.14	(8)	7	(13)	0.363	(13)	3	4	2	5	-1
Seattle	5.5	(5)	8	(14)	0.335	(14)	2	4	2	4	0

Red Sox Magic Number

With the Red Sox 7-6 victory over the Orioles last night, Baltimore becomes the second team officially eliminated in the AL East. Tampa Bay was the first, last weekend. Those two are the only two teams in baseball who have been officially eliminated so far, though the White Sox cannot finish ahead of Cleveland. The Indians magic number to eliminate Chicago is 1.

Boston now has a magic number of 10 to eliminate Toronto, and 16 to eliminate New York, with 21 games remaining to play.

Monday Pythagorean - 9/3

What a disaster! The Red Sox got swept in New York! That means that the last two weeks have seen the Yankees cut the Red Sox lead from four all the way down to...six!

• The first elimination of the season took place yesterday. Boston's win over Baltimore officially eliminated Tampa Bay from the AL east race.



• There were people ready to jump off bridges again when the Red Sox got swept in New York. I wasn't one of them. Was I happy about it? No, obviously not. But that's why you try to win them all - sometimes things don't work out, and you end up with a series like that. If you've played well and built a big lead, well, you've still got it afterwards.



• One of the reactions that irritated me was posted by someone whom I normally agree with on the Sox usenet group. To the effect that (paraphrasing), "it's obvious that the Red Sox were a better team earlier in the season and the Yankees are a better team now." No, it's not obvious at all, not unless it's also obvious that Tampa Bay and Detroit are currently better teams than New York. Three game series rarely tell you anything about anything outside those three games. The Yankees certainly played better than the Red Sox for those three days. Beyond that, I think you can draw nothing in the way of conclusions from those games.



• When the series in New York was over, the Red Sox had finished a stretch of 26 of 36 on the road. They had a 7-game road trip, a 9-game road trip, and a 10-game road trip, and one of the two home series was three games, so that's almost like another one - they had seven consecutive series in seven different cities. Over that 5 1/2 weeks, they went 21-15, .583 ball, a 95 win pace. (For a little more perspective, there are currently 2 major league teams, Boston and Anaheim, with a winning percentage higher than .583.) There were some bad teams in that stretch, but they also visited Cleveland, Anaheim, Seattle and New York, and played Anaheim in one of the three home series. That's a great stretch of baseball. The Yankees made up ground by playing a home-heavy schedule of the little sisters of the poor, but that's a great stretch by the Red Sox, and people should be aware of it. The Red Sox weren't folding or collapsing or anything like it - they played a brutal stretch, and they played it very well.



• There are 25 games to go. The magic number is 20. If the Red Sox go 20-5, it doesn't matter what the Yankees do. If the Red Sox go 15-10, the Yankees have to go 21-4 to tie.



• .428/.487/.714/1.201 - That's the line from four recent products of the Sox farm system (Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Brandon Moss) over the weekend.



• 18 innings, 1.00 ERA, .89 WHIP - That's the line from four recent products of the Sox farm system (Manuel Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Lester, Jonathan Papelbon) over the weekend.



• That's a big weekend for the player development folks...



• What a fantastic performance from young Mr. Buchholz on Saturday night. Tremendous composure, great stuff, and he got the one play that a no-hitter needs when Pedroia robbed Tejada in the 7th. And he did it in only 115 pitches, saving everyone the stress and strain that would have come in to play if he'd gotten to 120 with an out or two still to go.



• Remaining schedule - 15 home, 10 away. Three with New York (currently at .555), six with Toronto (.515), four with Minnesota (.504), two with Oakland (.493), four with Baltimore (.437), six with Tampa Bay (.409). That's 13 with teams at or above .500, 12 with teams below .500. New York is the only competition left that's legitimately in play-off contention. (Toronto's 5 1/2 back in the wild card, but three teams are in front of them.)



• If they go 13-12, New York has to go 19-6 to tie. It's not over yet, but it sure seems to be getting close...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/3/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.29	(3)	3.94	(1)	0.632	(1)	87	50	82	55	-5
New York	5.85	(1)	4.84	(8)	0.586	(2)	80	57	76	61	-4
Los Angeles	5.16	(4)	4.5	(5)	0.562	(3)	76	60	80	56	4
Cleveland	5.01	(5)	4.51	(6)	0.549	(4)	75	61	78	58	3
Detroit	5.55	(2)	5.07	(11)	0.541	(5)	74	63	73	64	-1
Toronto	4.53	(11)	4.19	(2)	0.535	(6)	73	63	70	66	-3
Minnesota	4.53	(12)	4.41	(3)	0.512	(7)	70	67	69	68	-1
Seattle	4.93	(7)	4.92	(9)	0.501	(8)	68	67	73	62	5
Oakland	4.48	(13)	4.49	(4)	0.499	(9)	69	69	68	70	-1
Texas	4.97	(6)	5.19	(12)	0.48	(10)	65	71	63	73	-2
Kansas City	4.54	(10)	4.77	(7)	0.477	(11)	65	71	61	75	-4
Baltimore	4.59	(9)	5.03	(10)	0.459	(12)	62	73	59	76	-3
Tampa Bay	4.79	(8)	5.91	(14)	0.405	(13)	56	81	56	81	0
Chicago	4.2	(14)	5.34	(13)	0.391	(14)	54	83	58	79	4

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	97	65
Los Angeles	95	67
Cleveland	93	69
New York	90	72
Seattle	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	98	64
Los Angeles	95	67
Cleveland	92	70
New York	91	71
Detroit	87	75

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	6	(3)	3.71	(3)	0.706	(1)	5	2	3	4	-2
Tampa Bay	7.86	(1)	5	(9)	0.696	(2)	5	2	5	2	0
Los Angeles	7.33	(2)	4.83	(8)	0.682	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Toronto	5	(6)	3.5	(1)	0.658	(4)	4	2	5	1	1
Cleveland	5.57	(5)	4.14	(4)	0.632	(5)	4	3	6	1	2
Kansas City	4.71	(8)	3.57	(2)	0.624	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Texas	5.83	(4)	4.67	(6)	0.601	(7)	4	2	5	1	1
Boston	4.5	(9)	4.17	(5)	0.535	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Chicago	3.71	(12)	4.71	(7)	0.393	(9)	3	4	2	5	-1
Oakland	4.17	(10)	5.33	(10)	0.389	(10)	2	4	3	3	1
Minnesota	3.86	(11)	5.57	(11)	0.338	(11)	2	5	2	5	0
Baltimore	4.83	(7)	8.17	(14)	0.277	(12)	2	4	1	5	-1
New York	3.71	(12)	6.43	(12)	0.268	(13)	2	5	4	3	2
Seattle	3.29	(14)	6.43	(12)	0.226	(14)	2	5	0	7	-2

Monday Pythagorean - 8/27

"They need to have another 5+ win week. They haven't done it in a while, and this is the week to do it."
- Me, last week.

Do it they did. In stunning fashion, assisted tremendously by the Chicago White Sox, who appear to be waiting for their tee times. The one loss of the week was by one run - the wins were, on the whole, by much bigger margins.

• It's very rare, over the course of seven games, to see the Pythagorean say that a team should be undefeated. I don't remember ever actually seeing it before. That's how dominant the weekend in Chicago was - the Red Sox went 6-1 on the week and underperformed their Pythagorean winning percentage.



• Apparently, the Red Sox streak of four straight games scoring in double-digits is the first such streak for the team since 1950. I suspect that this team won't follow up the way that one did, however. From June 2-June 5, 1950, the Red Sox scored 11, 11, 17 and 12. They lost their next game, scoring only four, and then did something almost unimaginable. They beat the St. Louis Browns 20-4 on the 7th and then beat them 29-4 on the 8th, setting the single game record that Texas broke this week. So over the course of 7 games, they scored 104 runs, almost 15 runs per game - for a week!



• How bad was Chicago's pitching? Texas not only scored 30 runs in a game, setting a new AL record, they scored 9 in the second game of that double-header. And the Red Sox still outscored the Rangers on the week.



• When I did this report 5 weeks ago, on July 23, the lead was 7 1/2 games over the Yankees. And I pointed out that "there is reason to think that it might get closer over the next few weeks. The Red Sox are on the road for 16 of the next 19, with 10 of those at the Indians, Angels and Mariners, the teams with the 3rd, 4th and 5th best records in baseball. Over that same stretch, the Yankees have got 7 with the Royals, 3 with the White Sox, 3 with the Orioles, 3 with the Blue Jays." It did get closer, and the Yankee trolls went into a frenzy about the Red Sox "collapse," and how the Yankees were going to go sailing past them on their way to the division crown. But funny what's happened now that New York has started playing real competition again - their numbers aren't quite as prolific, the pitching that they're getting is not quite as good, and now they're 5-5 in their last 10, and the lead is ... 7 1/2. That's right - the Yankees have made up 0 games in the last 5 weeks. And that's with Eric Gagne turning 3 Red Sox wins into Red Sox losses.



• There's still a perception that the Red Sox were great early and have been a .500 team since. Actually, they're nine games over .500 since the All Star break, the second best record in the AL. And they've got the best Pythagorean winning percentage in the league over that span. The Red Sox have underperformed by 3 and the Yankees have overperformed by 2, so New York's got a better actual record. If Gagne hadn't blown those three games, the Red Sox record would match their Pythagorean, and they'd have the best AL record since the All Star Break. This team isn't an illusion - it is legitimately the best team in baseball, and has been all year. The Detroit Tigers, who swept Boston just before the break, who many people were talking about being the best team in baseball, and evidence that Boston "can't beat the good teams," is 18-26 over that period, and should be 17-27 - the Red Sox are 27-17, and should be 30-14.



• There's been a lot of (justified) concern about the offense. The last few days have skewed that a little bit, but they've outscored everyone in baseball other than the Yankees since the break. For the season, the Yankees, Tigers and Phillies are the only teams that have scored more runs than the Red Sox.



• If the Yankees win their next 4, they'll go into the weekend exactly where they were a week ago, four games back. The Red Sox will be in first place next Monday no matter what happens this week.



• The Red Sox magic number is 25. Any combination of Red Sox wins and Yankee losses totalling 25 results in the Red Sox clinching the AL East. (Or at least clinching a better record than the Yankees.)



• The Red Sox have reached the point were they don't need to play .500 to win 95 games - 15-16 the rest of the way does it.



• The Baseball Prospectus play-off odds report has the Red Sox at 97.5% winning the east and 99.8% making the play-offs.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/27/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.33	(3)	3.93	(1)	0.636	(1)	83	48	80	51	-3
New York	5.96	(1)	4.75	(7)	0.602	(2)	78	52	72	58	-6
Los Angeles	5.06	(4)	4.48	(5)	0.555	(3)	72	58	76	54	4
Cleveland	4.98	(6)	4.53	(6)	0.544	(4)	70	59	72	57	2
Detroit	5.53	(2)	5.15	(11)	0.533	(5)	69	61	70	60	1
Toronto	4.51	(12)	4.22	(2)	0.53	(6)	69	61	65	65	-4
Minnesota	4.56	(10)	4.35	(3)	0.522	(7)	68	62	67	63	-1
Seattle	5.02	(5)	4.84	(8)	0.517	(8)	66	62	73	55	7
Oakland	4.49	(13)	4.45	(4)	0.505	(9)	67	65	65	67	-2
Texas	4.93	(7)	5.22	(12)	0.474	(10)	62	68	58	72	-4
Baltimore	4.58	(9)	4.88	(10)	0.471	(11)	61	68	58	71	-3
Kansas City	4.53	(11)	4.84	(9)	0.47	(12)	61	68	57	72	-4
Chicago	4.22	(14)	5.38	(13)	0.391	(13)	51	79	56	74	5
Tampa Bay	4.62	(8)	5.95	(14)	0.386	(14)	50	80	51	79	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	99	63
Los Angeles	95	67
Seattle	92	70
New York	90	72
Cleveland	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	100	62
Los Angeles	94	68
New York	91	71
Seattle	91	71
Cleveland	90	72

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	8.71	(1)	2.14	(1)	0.929	(1)	7	0	6	1	-1
Texas	8.14	(2)	5	(6)	0.709	(2)	5	2	4	3	-1
Cleveland	5	(9)	3.33	(2)	0.677	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Minnesota	6.43	(4)	4.29	(4)	0.677	(4)	5	2	5	2	0
Seattle	5.57	(6)	4.29	(4)	0.618	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
Tampa Bay	6.14	(5)	5.14	(8)	0.581	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Los Angeles	5.57	(6)	5.43	(10)	0.512	(7)	4	3	4	3	0
New York	6.67	(3)	7.17	(12)	0.467	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Toronto	3.43	(13)	4	(3)	0.43	(9)	3	4	2	5	-1
Detroit	4.5	(10)	5.33	(9)	0.423	(10)	3	3	3	3	0
Oakland	5.29	(8)	6.29	(11)	0.421	(11)	3	4	4	3	1
Kansas City	3.5	(12)	5	(6)	0.342	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Chicago	3.14	(14)	8.29	(13)	0.145	(13)	1	6	2	5	1
Baltimore	3.71	(11)	10.29	(14)	0.134	(14)	1	6	1	6	0

Monday Pythagorean - 8/20

Red Sox 4-3. Yankees 4-3. Similar schedules. Advantage goes to the team ahead, which is Boston.

• They need to have another 5+ win week. They haven't done it in a while, and this is the week to do it.



• There was a long debate in the Red Sox usenet group just over a year ago about the Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena trade. There were some people who looked at two months of stats from each of the two players and were willing to declare the traded a disaster. Others of us thought that the trade was risky but made sense. But the key point that I kept trying to make was that I evaluated the trade at the time it was made, based on the information available at the time, and wouldn't change my opinion of whether the trade made sense or not based on how it turned out.
  
  The Eric Gagne trade made sense. It has also, almost certainly, cost them three games directly in the standings. They need to have him pitch well in the post-season on the way to a World Series win for that trade not to turn out disastrously. The trade made sense, it was a good trade, but wow, has it turned out badly so far.



• Some people are more concerned about the offense than they were before. I'm feeling better about it. Yesterday was frustrating, but they've started to put some pressure on teams late in games, which they really haven't done much this season. This wasn't a great week for the offense, but they were facing some good pitching, too. Somehow, they always end up with Kazmir when they play Tampa, as they will again tonight. But they kept grinding, and took leads late, which they weren't doing earlier.



• There's a perception that the Red Sox got out to a hot start and have been treading water since then. That's not really true. Over the last 13 weeks, they've had the second-best pythagorean in the AL (behind NY). They've had the 5th best offense and 2nd best pitching/defense. They have underperformed by 3 games so they've played 44-37 (an 88-win pace) instead of 47-34 (a 94-win pace.)



• But it really is time to start playing better, again.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/20/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.93	(1)	4.64	(8)	0.61	(1)	76	48	70	54	-6
Boston	5.14	(3)	4.03	(1)	0.609	(2)	76	48	74	50	-2
Los Angeles	5.03	(4)	4.43	(5)	0.558	(3)	69	54	72	51	3
Cleveland	4.98	(6)	4.59	(7)	0.538	(4)	66	57	68	55	2
Detroit	5.58	(2)	5.14	(11)	0.538	(5)	67	57	67	57	0
Toronto	4.57	(10)	4.24	(2)	0.535	(6)	66	57	63	60	-3
Seattle	4.99	(5)	4.87	(10)	0.512	(7)	62	59	69	52	7
Minnesota	4.46	(12)	4.35	(4)	0.511	(8)	63	60	62	61	-1
Oakland	4.45	(13)	4.34	(3)	0.511	(9)	64	61	61	64	-3
Baltimore	4.63	(8)	4.57	(6)	0.506	(10)	62	60	57	65	-5
Kansas City	4.58	(9)	4.83	(9)	0.475	(11)	58	65	55	68	-3
Texas	4.75	(7)	5.23	(13)	0.456	(12)	56	67	54	69	-2
Chicago	4.28	(14)	5.21	(12)	0.411	(13)	51	72	54	69	3
Tampa Bay	4.54	(11)	6	(14)	0.375	(14)	46	77	47	76	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	97	65
Los Angeles	95	67
Seattle	92	70
New York	91	71
Cleveland	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	97	65
Los Angeles	94	68
New York	93	69
Seattle	90	72
Cleveland	89	73

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Minnesota	3.83	(9)	2.33	(1)	0.713	(1)	4	2	4	2	0
Baltimore	5.5	(1)	3.5	(6)	0.696	(2)	4	2	3	3	-1
Kansas City	5	(3)	3.43	(5)	0.666	(3)	5	2	4	3	-1
Cleveland	4	(7)	2.8	(3)	0.658	(4)	3	2	3	2	0
Boston	4.86	(5)	3.71	(7)	0.62	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
Oakland	4.71	(6)	4.14	(9)	0.559	(6)	4	3	5	2	1
Texas	2.83	(13)	2.5	(2)	0.557	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Toronto	3.14	(12)	3	(4)	0.521	(8)	4	3	4	3	0
New York	5	(3)	5.43	(11)	0.462	(9)	3	4	4	3	1
Seattle	5.17	(2)	5.67	(13)	0.458	(10)	3	3	4	2	1
Los Angeles	3.57	(10)	4.71	(10)	0.376	(11)	3	4	3	4	0
Chicago	4	(7)	6.33	(14)	0.301	(12)	2	4	0	6	-2
Detroit	3.43	(11)	5.57	(12)	0.291	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Tampa Bay	2.17	(14)	3.83	(8)	0.26	(14)	2	4	2	4	0

Monday Pythagorean - 8/13

Ugh.

Some weeks, these little reports are a lot more fun than others. This week falls into that category of "others."

I say again, ugh.

2-4 on the week, as the Yankee rampage continues. The lead, seven when the week started, is down to four.

Ugh-ly...

• The most frustrating part of the lost weekend in Baltimore is the way that they lost those two games. All season long, the bullpen has been one of the real strengths of the team. They've absolutely shut people down. Now, with the acquisition of Eric Gagne at the trade deadline, they've gone ahead and strengthened it. Theoretically. The fact is, they almost certainly win both of those games if they hadn't made the trade. The big mid-season trade to put them over the top has directly cost them two games in the standings in the last three days.



• Meanwhile, that team in the Bronx has continued to thrash the lesser teams, and is now moving on to beating up better teams that are struggling. Cleveland scored 6 runs in 3 days against the Yankees. Great New York pitching? Well, they'd only scored 19 in the previous 6 games, one of which went 13 innings, so they were already cold. And pathetic.



• Once again, we listened to a game where Joe Castiglione and Dave O'Brien talked about how it felt more comfortable than it was, how the Red Sox had lots of base-runners but not much to show for them. They continue to significantly underperform their statistics. Using Bill James' Runs Created formula, they've created 636 runs so far, but only scored 603. The Yankees have created 698 and scored 700. They've definitely done a better job reaching base than scoring.



• Despite the ugliness of the weekend, and the willingness of some to throw their hands up in despair, the race isn't over, and they haven't lost it. They're coming off their toughest stretch of the season, with 16 of the last 19 on the road, and the schedule is definitely in their favor now. They just have to play better.



• It doesn't help, of course, that now they finally get a series against the Devil Rays and the Ray's best two pitchers are matched up against the weak spots in the Boston rotation. Would anyone be shocked to see them shut down by Shields tonight or Kazmir tomorrow? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?
  
  I didn't think so...



• For the first time since May, they need to actually win some games this week to maintain first place.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/13/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.98	(1)	4.59	(6)	0.619	(1)	72	45	66	51	-6
Boston	5.15	(3)	4.05	(1)	0.608	(2)	71	46	70	47	-1
Los Angeles	5.12	(4)	4.41	(4)	0.568	(3)	66	50	69	47	3
Detroit	5.71	(2)	5.11	(11)	0.55	(4)	64	53	65	52	1
Toronto	4.66	(9)	4.31	(2)	0.535	(5)	62	54	59	57	-3
Cleveland	5.03	(5)	4.66	(8)	0.534	(6)	63	55	65	53	2
Seattle	4.98	(6)	4.83	(9)	0.515	(7)	59	56	65	50	6
Oakland	4.43	(13)	4.36	(3)	0.508	(8)	60	58	56	62	-4
Minnesota	4.49	(12)	4.45	(5)	0.503	(9)	59	58	58	59	-1
Baltimore	4.59	(10)	4.63	(7)	0.496	(10)	58	58	54	62	-4
Kansas City	4.55	(11)	4.91	(10)	0.465	(11)	54	62	51	65	-3
Texas	4.85	(7)	5.37	(13)	0.453	(12)	53	64	51	66	-2
Chicago	4.3	(14)	5.15	(12)	0.418	(13)	49	68	54	63	5
Tampa Bay	4.66	(8)	6.11	(14)	0.378	(14)	44	73	45	72	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	97	65
Los Angeles	96	66
Seattle	92	70
New York	91	71
Detroit	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	97	65
Los Angeles	95	67
New York	94	68
Detroit	90	72
Cleveland	89	73

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Los Angeles	6.67	(3)	3.5	(2)	0.765	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Seattle	7.83	(1)	4.33	(4)	0.747	(2)	4	2	5	1	1
New York	6.67	(3)	4.5	(5)	0.672	(3)	4	2	5	1	1
Texas	5.67	(6)	4.83	(7)	0.572	(4)	3	3	3	3	0
Toronto	4.67	(10)	4	(3)	0.57	(5)	3	3	3	3	0
Oakland	7.5	(2)	7.33	(13)	0.51	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Tampa Bay	4.71	(9)	4.71	(6)	0.5	(7)	4	3	3	4	-1
Detroit	6.14	(5)	7	(12)	0.441	(8)	3	4	4	3	1
Boston	4.83	(7)	5.67	(11)	0.428	(9)	3	3	2	4	-1
Kansas City	2.67	(13)	3.17	(1)	0.422	(10)	3	3	3	3	0
Chicago	3.83	(11)	4.83	(7)	0.396	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Cleveland	3.29	(12)	4.86	(9)	0.328	(12)	2	5	3	4	1
Baltimore	4.83	(7)	7.5	(14)	0.309	(13)	2	4	2	4	0
Minnesota	2.57	(14)	4.86	(9)	0.238	(14)	2	5	1	6	-1

The last to win 300?

A couple of pieces of media commentary:


More than likely, [X] will be the last 300-game winner

When [X] wins his next game -- which might be in his next start... -- that's probably going to be it. When [X] wins his next game, whenever that is, in all likelihood you're looking at the last 300-game winner.

[Y] Could Be Last Man To Reach 300-Win Mark

One of the more intriguing questions about [Y]'s 300th victory is whether the milestone ever will be reached again...It never has been tougher to win 300. Pitchers seldom get more than 35 starts because of the five-man rotation (consider that Old Hoss Radbourn was 60-12 in 73 starts for Providence in 1884); 20-game winners are decreasing (15 in 1969, three in 1989); increasingly, rules favor the hitters; and the amount of money commanded these days by a pitcher talented enough to win 300 is a disincentive to stay in the game long enough to accomplish it.

Current comments inspired by Tom Glavine's milestone victory the other night? Well, they could be. There has certainly been a lot of commentary to that effect. But no, neither quote is about Glavine.

X is Greg Maddux. John Donovan of SI wrote that just three years ago. No, Greg Maddux wasn't the last to win 300.

Y is Nolan Ryan. That piece ran in the Omaha World-Herald in August of 1990. At the time, Roger Clemens had 109 wins. Maddux had 52. Glavine had 29.

Meanwhile, Randy Johnson is just 16 away, one good season's worth of wins. Does anyone really think he's walking away this winter? No chance. If Barry Zito averages 15 for the next 5 years, he becomes a 35-year old with 200 wins. He won't have a chance?


In my opinion, it's a silly argument to make. There have NEVER been a lot of 300 game winners. And, while it's true that current pitching usage - 5 man rotations, pitch counts and bullpen specialists - make it harder to accumulate large win totals in a single season, those same factors, along with medical advances, also make it more likely that good pitchers will be capable of having longer careers.

And the money argument, in my opinion, is totally backwards. Many of us love the idea of being set for life and retiring from jobs that we don't love. Professional athletes are where they are because they're ultra-competitive. Many, if not most, do not walk away just because they've got enough - they need to be dragged, kicking and screaming, away from the game. With the money as a scorecard metric, that's just more incentive to keep going.

But when Johnson wins his 300th, in August of '08 or June of '09, bet big bucks that we'll see the same stories again. And when it happens again, in 12 years or 30, we'll see them again...

UPDATE: I meant to link to this post from the Baseball Crank the other day. He's looked at the average victory pace for 300-game winners, and identified the current pitchers who are at least close to it. Lots of good information, and emphasizes the silliness of supposing Glavine (and Maddux and Ryan) to be the last...

Monday Pythagorean - 8/6

Another 4-2 week. This time, the Yankees made up a game by going 5-1. The lead stands at 7 with 51 left to play. The magic number is 45.

• Two weeks ago, I talked about the schedule, and how they were entering a 3-week span which had the Red Sox on the road for 16 of 19 against the iron of the AL, while the Yankees were playing the Little Sisters of the Poor. 2/3 of the way through that stretch, the lead has dropped by 1/2 game. I said that they needed to "find a way to keep the lead at 5 or more by the end of August 12." If they go 4-2 this week, that guarantees they'll have done it, regardless of what the Yankees do.



• Schilling's back tonight, and, from all indications, as good as new. That's a boost. They got great work from Kason Gabbard, but they managed to sell high, and they're much better off with a healthy Schilling in that spot.



• I also pointed out two weeks ago that they were still scoring runs, just not efficiently using them, and that it was unlikely to continue. Since then, they're 9-4, matching their Pythagorean of 9-4. After losing 9-of-10 in one-run games, they've won 3-of-4.



• When people were writing off the Yankees back in May, I kept saying that it was a mistake.
  
  

  It's never over until it's over (ask the 2004 Yankees about that) and this isn't over, and won't be for a while. The Yankees have got too much talent to continue to flounder this way.
  
  

  5/21/2007

  
  

  Why am I still focused on the Yankees, when they're behind Baltimore and Toronto? Beyond the fact that they are the Yankees, I still believe them to be the 2nd best team in the division."
  
  

  5/28/2007

  
  

  But they're still a very good team, as I pointed out while the yahoos were declaring the race over three weeks ago. It wasn't over then, and it's not over now."
  
  

  6/11/2007

  
  

  
  Right now, New York is tied with Seattle, 1/2 game behind Wild-Card leader Detroit, and has to be considered heavy favorites to make the post-season yet again. I don't think that they'll catch Boston, but I do think that Boston and New York are both playing October baseball again this year.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/6/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.17	(3)	3.96	(1)	0.619	(1)	69	42	68	43	-1
New York	5.95	(1)	4.59	(7)	0.616	(2)	68	43	61	50	-7
Detroit	5.68	(2)	4.99	(10)	0.559	(3)	61	49	61	49	0
Los Angeles	5.04	(5)	4.46	(5)	0.555	(4)	61	49	64	46	3
Cleveland	5.14	(4)	4.65	(8)	0.545	(5)	61	50	62	49	1
Toronto	4.65	(8)	4.33	(3)	0.533	(6)	59	51	56	54	-3
Minnesota	4.61	(11)	4.43	(4)	0.518	(7)	57	53	57	53	0
Baltimore	4.57	(12)	4.47	(6)	0.51	(8)	56	54	52	58	-4
Oakland	4.27	(14)	4.2	(2)	0.508	(9)	57	55	53	59	-4
Seattle	4.83	(6)	4.85	(9)	0.497	(10)	54	55	60	49	6
Kansas City	4.65	(8)	5.01	(11)	0.466	(11)	51	59	48	62	-3
Texas	4.8	(7)	5.4	(13)	0.447	(12)	50	61	48	63	-2
Chicago	4.32	(13)	5.17	(12)	0.419	(13)	46	65	52	59	6
Tampa Bay	4.65	(8)	6.2	(14)	0.372	(14)	41	69	42	68	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	99	63
Los Angeles	94	68
Detroit	90	72
Cleveland	90	72
New York	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	100	62
Los Angeles	93	69
New York	92	70
Detroit	90	72
Cleveland	90	72

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	10.67	(1)	5.17	(10)	0.79	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Toronto	4.5	(5)	3.5	(3)	0.613	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	5.33	(3)	4.17	(7)	0.611	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Oakland	4.14	(7)	3.57	(4)	0.567	(4)	4	3	4	3	0
Los Angeles	4.29	(6)	3.86	(5)	0.548	(5)	4	3	3	4	-1
Minnesota	2.83	(14)	2.67	(1)	0.528	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Cleveland	3.17	(13)	3	(2)	0.525	(7)	3	3	2	4	-1
Baltimore	4.83	(4)	4.67	(8)	0.516	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Tampa Bay	4	(8)	4	(6)	0.5	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Chicago	5.67	(2)	7.17	(14)	0.394	(10)	2	4	4	2	2
Texas	3.67	(10)	5.17	(10)	0.348	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Detroit	3.33	(12)	4.83	(9)	0.336	(12)	2	4	1	5	-1
Seattle	3.67	(10)	5.33	(12)	0.335	(13)	2	4	3	3	1
Kansas City	3.83	(9)	7	(13)	0.249	(14)	1	5	1	5	0

Monday Pythagorean - 7/30

As frustrating as yesterday was, 5-2 on the road is a good week. A very good week. And they picked up a game on the Yankees, despite NY having an easier schedule. That's a good thing.

• It looks like only a half game, but one of the Yankee wins was a 2-inning conclusion to a game that they essentially won a month ago against the Orioles. The Red Sox went 5-2 on the week, the Yankees went 4-3. During the games played during the week.



• Josh Beckett, in his last 3 starts, has gone 8 innings and allowed 2 runs, gone 8 innings and allowed 1 run, and gone 6 innings and allowed 3 runs. The worst of those three starts resulted in a "win" for Beckett, the other two resulted in "losses." I've said it before, I'll say it again - the idea of judging starting pitchers on won/loss record is just silly, and no one would ever propose it today if people hadn't been doing it for a hundred years.



• This is another week with a big schedule advantage for the Yankees. Boston has three at home against Baltimore and three at Seattle. New York has six at home, against the White Sox and Royals. Frankly, the Red Sox shouldn't expect the Yankees to lose this week, so they really need to go 4-2, at least. But if they can get through the next nine with the lead at 6 or 7, they'll be in good shape, because this may be the worst 9-day stretch of the season from a comparative schedule point of view.
  
  
  

  Boston	NY
  BAL - 3	CHW - 3
  @SEA - 3	KC - 3
  @LAA - 3	@TOR - 3

  
  



• Pitching's been very good. Offense is starting to wake up. Still the best team in baseball. This is all good...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/30/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.16	(4)	3.95	(1)	0.62	(1)	65	40	64	41	-1
New York	5.68	(2)	4.56	(7)	0.599	(2)	63	42	56	49	-7
Detroit	5.82	(1)	5	(11)	0.569	(3)	59	45	60	44	1
Los Angeles	5.09	(5)	4.5	(5)	0.555	(4)	57	46	61	42	4
Cleveland	5.25	(3)	4.74	(8)	0.546	(5)	57	48	60	45	3
Toronto	4.66	(11)	4.38	(3)	0.529	(6)	55	49	52	52	-3
Minnesota	4.71	(8)	4.53	(6)	0.518	(7)	54	50	53	51	-1
Baltimore	4.56	(12)	4.46	(4)	0.51	(8)	53	51	49	55	-4
Seattle	4.89	(6)	4.83	(9)	0.506	(9)	52	51	57	46	5
Oakland	4.28	(13)	4.24	(2)	0.504	(10)	53	52	49	56	-4
Kansas City	4.7	(9)	4.89	(10)	0.482	(11)	50	54	47	57	-3
Texas	4.87	(7)	5.41	(13)	0.452	(12)	47	58	46	59	-1
Chicago	4.25	(14)	5.06	(12)	0.421	(13)	44	61	48	57	4
Tampa Bay	4.69	(10)	6.33	(14)	0.367	(14)	38	66	39	65	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	99	63
Los Angeles	96	66
Detroit	93	69
Cleveland	93	69
Seattle	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	99	63
Los Angeles	94	68
Detroit	93	69
Cleveland	91	71
New York	90	72

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	5.5	(7)	2	(1)	0.864	(1)	5	1	4	2	-1
Boston	6	(3)	3.43	(2)	0.736	(2)	5	2	5	2	0
Baltimore	6.17	(2)	4.17	(3)	0.672	(3)	4	2	5	2	1
Los Angeles	8.33	(1)	5.83	(10)	0.658	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
New York	6	(3)	4.57	(5)	0.622	(5)	4	3	5	3	1
Kansas City	5.14	(9)	4.43	(4)	0.568	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Seattle	5.5	(7)	5.13	(7)	0.532	(7)	4	4	3	5	-1
Oakland	6	(3)	6.14	(11)	0.489	(8)	3	4	3	4	0
Chicago	4.88	(10)	5.25	(8)	0.466	(9)	4	4	5	3	1
Cleveland	3.57	(12)	4.57	(5)	0.389	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Detroit	6	(3)	8.25	(14)	0.358	(11)	3	5	2	6	-1
Texas	3.86	(11)	5.57	(9)	0.338	(12)	2	5	4	3	2
Tampa Bay	3.33	(13)	6.67	(13)	0.22	(13)	1	5	1	5	0
Minnesota	2.67	(14)	6.5	(12)	0.164	(14)	1	5	2	4	1