2014 Boston Red Sox - Predictions on the eve of opening day...

Looking back, to look forward...

What was it that Dave O'Brien called the 2013 season? "An unexpected gift of a season"? Truer words were never spoken. Following the meltdown of September 2011 and the complete disaster that was 2012, expectations were relatively low for the Boston Red Sox entering the 2013 season. And yet they spent just two days in third place and 16 more in second. The rest of the season, they had at least a share of first place in the AL East. Their biggest deficit in the division was three games in early May. They held at least a share of the lead on every day from July 31 on, and took sole possession for good on August 25. In September, they built their lead in the division up to nine and a hald games before winning the division by six games.

They tied with the St. Louis Cardinal for the best record in baseball at 97-65. They led all of baseball in runs scored (853) and run differential (197). That they did this appears not to have been a fluke - they won three rounds of playoff baseball without being forced to a potential elimination game. They actually underperformed their expected won-loss percentage. In one-run games, a category in which fluky or lucky teams tend to do extremely well (see the 2012 Baltimore Orioles), the Red Sox were 21-21.

There's a tendency to look at a team that performed the way Boston did and proclaim that "everything went right for them." But that's not the case.

• Their best starting pitcher, Clay Buchholz, hurt his neck/shoulder and missed three months, not appearing in a game between June 8 and September 10.
• They traded for a closer (Joel Hanrahan) and lost him for the season on May 6.
• They moved to their previous closer (Andrew Bailey) and lost him for the season on July 12.
• Their All-Star second baseman, who had averaged 16 HR and a .470 SLG percentage over the previous five seasons, tore a ligament in his thumb on opening day, and finished with 9 HR and a .416 SLG.
• Their rookie 3rd baseman, of whom they had high expectations, had a dismal .227/.271/.425/.696 season, and ended up spending a third of it in Pawtucket.
• Their best left-handed reliever, Andrew Miller, was lost for the season on July 7.

On the other hand, given what they got from Koji Uehara, you could argue that the loss of their closers ended up being a good thing, but that's certainly not what they had planned on. David Ortiz will age at some point, but 2013 was not that point. They got far more from Jose Iglesias than they had any right to expect when Drew and then Middlebrooks were hurt, and managed to trade him at peak value. They got 134 games of outstanding production from Jacoby Ellsbury, 122 from Shane Victorino and 137 from David Ortiz.

All things considered, the 2013 Boston Red Sox were a very good team with some good luck and some bad luck, which generally evened out to produce a very good season.

So, what should we expect from the 2014 Red Sox?

Offense:

In 2013, the Boston Red Sox led all of Major League baseball with 853 runs scored. In the offseason, however, they lost three players who were among the best, offensively, at their positions, as Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Stephen Drew have all moved on.

The following players have all left:

Jacoby Ellsbury (.298/.355/.426/.781, 93.69 runs created, 5.52 RC/25 outs)
Stephen Drew (.253/.333/.443/.777, 66.07 runs created, 4.82 RC/25 outs)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.273/.338/.466/.804, 65.90 runs created, 5.16 RC/25 outs)
Jose Iglesias (.330/.376/.409/.785, 33.05 runs created, 5.47 RC/25 outs)
Pedro Ciriaco (.216/.293/.353/.646, 5.72 runs created, 3.41 RC/25 outs)
Quintin Berry (.625/.667/1.000/1.667, 4.52 runs created, 37.68 RC/25 outs)
John McDonald (.250/.333/.250/.583, .75 runs created, 3.14 RC/25 outs)
Jonathan Diaz (.000/.000/.000/.000, -.40 runs created, -2.50 RC/25 outs)
Gone (.283/.347/.437/.784, 269.00 runs created, 5.21 RC/25 outs)

In the aggregate, that's about 30% of Boston's 2013 offense production, which makes sense as they've lost, essentially, three of their nine starting offensive players. They've lost 66% of their triples, but only 22% of their home runs.

As to their replacements, it's hard to see what a realistic projection would be. The CF slot will be filled by some combination of Grady Sizemore and Jackie Bradley Jr. Sizemore, at his peak, is a better player than Ellsbury. But he's two years removed from played Major League baseball and four years removed from that peak. And we don't know, yet, whether Bradley's going to hit in the majors. At catcher, they're replacing Jarrod Saltalamacchia with AJ Pierzynski, which is probably a slight downgrade. And at SS, Drew, who was better last year than many people want to give him credit for, is being replaced by Xander Bogaerts, for whom the sky is apparently the limit. It may represent a significant upgrade, but as good as he was last fall, he's still got fewer than 100 Major League plate appearances, and we just don't know.

Best case - improvement at CF, big improvement at SS and about the same at C. Worst case - big drop-off in CF, drop-off at SS, big drop-off at catcher. Likeliest scenario - similar offensive production at those three spots, in the aggregate, to what they had last year, with a little more power, and many fewer stolen bases.

And the following players are all returning:

David Ortiz (.309/.395/.564/.959, 105.94 runs created, 6.90 RC/25 outs)
Dustin Pedroia (.301/.372/.415/.787, 97.15 runs created, 5.02 RC/25 outs)
Mike Napoli (.259/.360/.482/.842, 83.23 runs created, 5.39 RC/25 outs)
Daniel Nava (.303/.385/.445/.831, 78.99 runs created, 5.76 RC/25 outs)
Shane Victorino (.294/.351/.451/.801, 78.54 runs created, 5.50 RC/25 outs)
Jonny Gomes (.247/.344/.426/.771, 47.19 runs created, 4.80 RC/25 outs)
Mike Carp (.296/.362/.523/.885, 40.35 runs created, 6.38 RC/25 outs)
William Middlebrooks (.227/.271/.425/.696, 36.49 runs created, 3.18 RC/25 outs)
David Ross (.216/.298/.382/.681, 11.25 runs created, 3.31 RC/25 outs)
Ryan Lavarnway (.299/.329/.429/.758, 9.96 runs created, 4.29 RC/25 outs)
Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.189/.280/.337/.617, 9.41 runs created, 3.02 RC/25 outs)
Xander Bogaerts (.250/.320/.364/.684, 5.38 runs created, 3.84 RC/25 outs)
Brock Holt (.203/.275/.237/.513, 4.81 runs created, 2.27 RC/25 outs)
Brandon Snyder (.180/.212/.360/.572, 3.69 runs created, 2.25 RC/25 outs)
Still Here (.276/.352/.453/.805, 611.87 runs created, 5.11 RC/25 outs)

Everyone ages. Ortiz cannot continue forever, but he's not shown any sign of decline yet. Is this the year? The big question is, does he age relatively gradually, in which case he's a productive player for a couple more years, or does he hit a cliff, Jim Rice style. For now, the likeliest scenario seems to be slightly reduced performance. Nava, Napoli, Victorino and Gomes are, likewise, all past the point where we would expect improvement. But neither should we expect any precipitous declines from them.

Will Middlebrooks is either going to be much better than he has been, or they are going to find a new third baseman. The power is prodigious, but he has to demonstrate greater plate discipline and reach base more often to be valuable. Dustin Pedroia played with a hand injury all of last year, and is likely to hit for more power this season while maintaining the batting average.

Prediction:

Boston will get similar production, on the whole, from its offense as it got in 2013, scoring 850 runs.



Pitching:

In 2013, Boston pitching allowed 656 runs, 6th best in the AL. The pitching staff, unlike the offense, returns largely intact. The injured closers (Hanrahan and Bailey) are gone, but they had gone by the All Star break last year anyway. The only pitcher with significant innings last year who is gone is Dempster, who was replaced by Peavy.

The 2014 starting rotation started 115 of Boston's 162 games last year, throwing 731 1/3 innings (6.35 per game) with an ERA of 3.45. The remainder of the starts went to pitchers who threw 252 2/3 innings (5.38 per game) with an ERA of 4.98. The projected starters won't make all of the starts, of course, so next in line are Brandon Workman, Chris Capuano and Allen Webster.

The bullpen returns with all of the key contibutors from the end of the season and the post-season. It was strong then; it looks strong now. It's extremely unlikely that Uehara will pitch a perfect game in relief again, but it's also extremely unlikely that he wouldn't be a very effective pitcher if healthy.

On the whole, I see no reason not to expect the Red Sox pitching to be similar, or possibly even slightly better than last year's staff.

Prediction:

Boston pitching will allow 660 runs in 2014.



Season record:

If they score 860 runs (seven more than 2013) and allow 640 (16 fewer), their pythagorean projection would be for a .633 winning percentage and a record of 103-59. If they score 810 (43 fewer) and allow 700 (44 more), their pythagorean projection would be for a .567 winning percentage and a 92-70 record. If they score 850 and allow 660, just about what they did last year, they would project to a 99-63 season.

It makes me a little uncomfortable, a little fanboyish to project a 100-win season coming off of the World Series. But this looks like a good team, and nothing about last year's performance looks like a fluke or unsustainable. So I'm going to predict good thing again, maybe a little bit on the conservative side to account for luck that might be a little bit worse.

My prediction - The 2014 Boston Red Sox will win 95 games and repeat as AL East champions.

Opening day, 2012

On April 15, 2011, Americans filed their taxes and the Red Sox lost to the Toronto Blue Jays to fall to 3-10. On September 6, 2011, nearly five months later, they beat the Toronto Blue Jays to run their record to 85-56. So, for 5/6 of the 2011 season, they went 82-46, a tremendous .640 winning percentage which, if it had lasted for the entire season, would have resulted in 104 wins. They clearly weren't ready for the regular season when it arrived, and they had a catastrophic collapse down the stretch. But that 2011 Red Sox team was extremely talented, and most of that talent is still here...


I've spent less time following the offseason and pre-season moves of the Red Sox, and everyone else, than at any time in the last 30 years. I have not got a set of projections ready to go. So bear that in mind when reading the following predictions.

• The 2011 Red Sox led the AL in runs scored. They may or may not repeat that performance, but the bulk of the offensive talent is still here. They'll finish in the top three in runs scored.
• The top three starters - Lester, Buchholz and Beckett - will see their ERA (3.23 in 2011) go up, but not a lot. But they'll also start more games (than 75) and pitch more innings (than 467).
• Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront will be more effective in the 4-5 starter roles than Lackey, Miller, Wakefield and Matsuzaka were last year (5.49 ERA).
• They'll miss Papelbon. Occasionally. But not nearly as much as some people are currently expecting them to.
• They'll work harder at stopping opposing running games. This will appear to be effective, as they allow fewer stolen bases. Whether it will actually be more effective, as the pitchers give up more hits through concentrating on base runners, will be impossible to know with any certainty.

The big prediction is this - the people (and they appear to be legion) writing this team off are wrong to do so. They will finish either first or second in the AL East, and be one of the AL's playoff teams again.

Odds and ends...

A couple of sports topics...

• I watched very little college football this year, and none with either LSU or Alabama. Until last night. My reaction to what I saw of the BCS National Championship game is bewilderment as to how that LSU team could possibly have entered the game undefeated. Alabama may have the best defense in the history of defence - it still wouldn't justify the ineptitude of what I saw from the LSU offense last night.
• Congratulations to Barry Larkin, who deserves to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. I think it's surprising that he's the only one, though. It looks like Jack Morris is going to make it in (mistake) and that Mark McGwire isn't (mistake). And I'd love to know why the people not voting for Tim Raines aren't voting for Tim Raines. If they're leaving his name off because of cocaine allegations in the mid-80s, well, that's their right (though there are a lot of users in already). If it's because they think he wasn't good enough, that's not right. Because he was.
• I'm a little bit surprised (bewildered?) by the response from some quarters that the return of Josh McDaniels to the Patriots coaching staff this week somehow gives New England an unfair advantage, and should have been prevented by the league. What would that advantage consist of how? How would it manifest itself? I don't see it...
• I don't trust the Patriots defense. At all. At the same time, the AFC team that I was most scared of was Pittsburgh, and they're gone. I said a week ago that I wouldn't be surprised if the won the Super Bowl and I wouldn't be surprised if they lost their first game. Well, I now would be surprised if they lost their first game. Not that Denver isn't capable of winning in New England (or, more accurately, that New England isn't capable of losing to Denver) but I don't expect them to.
• Yes, the Packers put up the best record in football. Yes, they beat the Giants in New York not too long ago. Yes, they should be favored at home this weekend. But, while it would be an upset, it would not be a shocking upset if the Giants were to win in Lambeau on Sunday.
• Would it even be a surprise if New Orleans won in San Francisco? Yes, they've been a lot better at home than on the road, and the 49ers are an outstanding defensive team. Still, I'm not sure that the Saints aren't the best team in football right now, and I don't think the 49ers can score enough to stay with them.
• Which units are going to score more in Baltimore - the Ravens and Texans offenses, or the Ravens and Texans defenses?

Monday Pythagorean 9/26/2011

One way or another, for good or for ill, this regular season is going to be over before the week is. One way or another, for good or for ill, the Red Sox cannot get out of this September soon enough...

• How dismal has this 6-18 month been? They lost two games between wins on the 3rd and 6th. They lost two games between wins on the 13th and 16th. That's as close as they came to a winning streak.
• The Red Sox played baseball games on five days this week. They lost a game on all five. The two wins were both the second halves of double headers.
• Jekyll or Hyde? In two stretchs (2-10 to start, 6-18 in September) they played .222 ball for 36 games. In the 123 games in between, they were a .659 team, 81-42.
• The second game In New York on Sunday was only the second time in the month of September that the Red Sox won a game without scoring 12 or more runs. It was also the first time all month that they scored between 5 and 10 runs.
• The Red Sox' magic number is three. They need Tampa lose at least as many games at home against New York as the Red Sox lose in Baltimore against the Orioles. If the Sox go 3-0, it doesn't matter what the Rays do. If the Sox lose 1, they need the Rays to lose 1. If Boston loses 1 more than Tampa, they'll have a playoff game on Thursday. If Boston loses two more than Tampa, the Rays win the Wild Card. (All of this assumes that the Angels lose one or the Red Sox win one. If Boston loses three, the Angels win three and the Rays lose two, there will be a three-way tie, and I'm not going to go through the playoff scenarios that result from that right now. If Boston and Tampa get swept and the Angels sweep, the Sox and Angels would have a one-game playoff on Thursday.)
• Tough to overstate the importance of Beckett pitching well tonight. The importance of the game in the standings goes without saying, but, in addition to that, the bullpen threw 12 innings yesterday. Beckett needs to pitch well and pitch long.
• Some offense would help, too...
• Red Sox Player of the Week - Jacoby Ellsbury hit .382/.400/.765/1.165, and capped off his week with the 14th inning three-run HR that was crucial to getting out of New York with a lead in the playoff hunt.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - When the best start of the week comes from John Lackey, you know that none of the starters are getting it. So the award splits this week, between Alfredo Aceves (6 1/3) and Scott Atchison (7 1/3), who combined for 13 2/3 innings of scoreless relief.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.38	(2)	4.02	(3)	0.63	(1)	100	59	97	62	-3
Texas	5.3	(3)	4.22	(5)	0.603	(2)	95	63	92	66	-3
Boston	5.42	(1)	4.53	(9)	0.581	(3)	92	67	89	70	-3
Tampa Bay	4.36	(9)	3.78	(1)	0.565	(4)	89	69	88	70	-1
Detroit	4.8	(4)	4.42	(8)	0.538	(5)	85	73	91	67	6
Los Angeles	4.18	(10)	3.88	(2)	0.534	(6)	84	74	86	72	2
Toronto	4.66	(5)	4.77	(12)	0.49	(7)	77	81	79	79	2
Kansas City	4.55	(6)	4.75	(11)	0.481	(8)	76	82	69	89	-7
Cleveland	4.39	(7)	4.61	(10)	0.478	(9)	76	83	80	79	4
Oakland	4.01	(12)	4.27	(6)	0.472	(10)	75	83	71	87	-4
Chicago	4.09	(11)	4.35	(7)	0.471	(11)	74	84	77	81	3
Seattle	3.49	(14)	4.17	(4)	0.42	(12)	66	92	66	92	0
Baltimore	4.37	(8)	5.33	(14)	0.411	(13)	65	93	67	91	2
Minnesota	3.85	(13)	4.99	(13)	0.384	(14)	61	98	61	98	0

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	99	63
Texas	94	68
Detroit	93	69
Boston	91	71
Tampa Bay	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	99	63
Texas	94	68
Detroit	93	69
Boston	91	71
Tampa Bay	90	72

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	7.4	(1)	3.2	(1)	0.823	(1)	4	1	4	1	0
Kansas City	7.25	(2)	3.75	(2)	0.77	(2)	3	1	2	2	-1
New York	5.75	(8)	4.13	(4)	0.647	(3)	5	3	6	2	1
Los Angeles	5.33	(9)	3.83	(3)	0.647	(4)	4	2	3	3	-1
Tampa Bay	5.17	(10)	4.17	(5)	0.597	(5)	4	2	3	3	-1
Cleveland	6.75	(4)	5.63	(9)	0.583	(6)	5	3	5	4	0
Detroit	6.4	(5)	6.2	(12)	0.515	(7)	3	2	2	3	-1
Seattle	5.83	(7)	6	(11)	0.487	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Baltimore	7	(3)	7.43	(14)	0.473	(9)	3	4	5	2	2
Chicago	4.33	(12)	4.67	(7)	0.466	(10)	3	3	3	3	0
Minnesota	4.86	(11)	5.43	(8)	0.449	(11)	3	4	2	6	-1
Boston	6	(6)	6.71	(13)	0.449	(12)	3	4	2	5	-1
Oakland	3.8	(14)	4.4	(6)	0.433	(13)	2	3	2	3	0
Toronto	4	(13)	5.67	(10)	0.346	(14)	2	4	2	4	0

Monday Pythagorean 9/19/2011

Staggering to the finish line? If they make it there at all after another 2-4 week...

• We've a wonderful example here of averages lying. The Red Sox scored 6 runs per game this week, 2nd in the AL. But. 18 of the 36 runs they scored came in one blowout win. In the other five games, they averaged 3.6 runs per game, and went 1-4.
• If the Red Sox end up missing the playoffs, these last two weekends will be largely responsible, as they've gone 1-6 vs. Tampa. One more in one of those six losses, and they've be in pretty good shape still. (And frankly, they're still in pretty good shape. With 10 games left, it's much better to be two up than two back.)
• There have been some injury problems, and the pitching hasn't been great. It would be nice to have a healthy Youkilis. It would have been nice to have another start from Beckett, and a good performance from Lester, and maybe a couple of Bedard starts instead of Wakefield and/or Weiland. But. The guys who are there have been bad. The eight regulars who've played in all seven of those games (six of seven in the case of Saltalamacchia) hit .216/.283/.319/.602 over the two weekends. Shockingly, the only one of the eight who was decent was Crawford. The rest were abysmal.
  

  Carl Crawford                 .364/.391/.455/.846
  Jacoby Ellsbury               .276/.290/.448/.739
  David Ortiz                   .250/.357/.292/.649
  Josh Reddick                  .278/.350/.278/.628
  Marco Scutaro                 .200/.222/.320/.542
  Dustin Pedroia                .192/.250/.231/.481
  Adrian Gonzalez               .048/.259/.190/.450
  Jarrod Saltalamacchia         .100/.143/.300/.443
  

  Pathetic.
• Boston has seven remaining with Baltimore and three with New York. Tampa has seven remaining with New York and three with Toronto.
• Boston's magic number is seven.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - None
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Josh Beckett returned and pitched well in their only victory against the Rays, one of the biggest wins of the year.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.36	(2)	4.01	(3)	0.629	(1)	95	56	91	60	-4
Texas	5.24	(3)	4.25	(5)	0.594	(2)	91	62	88	65	-3
Boston	5.39	(1)	4.43	(9)	0.589	(3)	90	62	87	65	-3
Tampa Bay	4.33	(7)	3.76	(1)	0.564	(4)	86	66	85	67	-1
Detroit	4.75	(4)	4.36	(8)	0.539	(5)	83	70	89	64	6
Los Angeles	4.13	(10)	3.88	(2)	0.529	(6)	80	72	83	69	3
Toronto	4.68	(5)	4.73	(11)	0.496	(7)	75	77	77	75	2
Oakland	4.02	(12)	4.26	(6)	0.473	(8)	72	81	69	84	-3
Chicago	4.08	(11)	4.34	(7)	0.471	(9)	72	80	74	78	2
Kansas City	4.48	(6)	4.77	(12)	0.471	(10)	73	81	67	87	-6
Cleveland	4.27	(8)	4.55	(10)	0.47	(11)	71	79	75	75	4
Seattle	3.4	(14)	4.1	(4)	0.415	(12)	63	89	63	89	0
Baltimore	4.25	(9)	5.23	(14)	0.406	(13)	61	90	62	89	1
Minnesota	3.8	(13)	4.97	(13)	0.38	(14)	57	94	59	92	2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	98	64
Detroit	94	68
Texas	93	69
Boston	93	69
Tampa Bay	91	71

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	98	64
Detroit	94	68
Texas	93	69
Boston	93	69
Tampa Bay	91	71

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	6	(2)	3.17	(2)	0.763	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Kansas City	6.67	(1)	4	(7)	0.718	(2)	4	2	5	1	1
Detroit	5	(5)	3	(1)	0.718	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Tampa Bay	4.71	(8)	3.71	(5)	0.607	(4)	4	3	4	3	0
New York	4	(11)	3.5	(4)	0.561	(5)	3	3	3	3	0
Baltimore	4.67	(9)	4.17	(8)	0.552	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Los Angeles	4.83	(7)	4.33	(9)	0.55	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Boston	6	(2)	5.83	(10)	0.513	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Oakland	3.14	(13)	3.29	(3)	0.48	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Cleveland	5.33	(4)	6.83	(13)	0.389	(10)	2	4	3	3	1
Toronto	5	(5)	6.6	(11)	0.376	(11)	2	3	3	2	1
Seattle	2.83	(14)	3.83	(6)	0.365	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Chicago	4.29	(10)	7.71	(14)	0.254	(13)	2	5	1	6	-1
Minnesota	3.6	(12)	6.8	(12)	0.238	(14)	1	4	0	5	-1

Monday Pythagorean 9/12/2011

I don't even have a rant this week. They were not only bad, they were unwatchably bad, and my only commentary was that I found it impossible to sit through the entirety of any of those games. Even the one win was bad baseball, because it was over very early...

• Even with the Yankees losing four straight to Baltimore and LAnaheim, the deficit continued to increase. If they haven't been eliminated from the division yet, and they haven't, neither have they locked up the Wild Card. This was about as bad a week of baseball as they've played all year, and the fact that they are still in a playoff spot is due to good work that they did earlier, not anything that they've done recently.
• In the cold light of reason, I must now say this - they are still likely to make the playoffs. They've got four more home games and five fewer road games remaining than the Rays, and they've been a better team all year, and the race has gotten close as Tampa's had a hot streak that coincided with a dreadful Boston slump. Neither of those things is likely to continue much longer.
• Of course, neither has to go much longer for Tampa to pass Boston...
• The offense looked much better than it actually was, as they scored a ton of runs in games where it did them no particular good (14 runs in a shutout win, 10 more in a loss - they could have gone 1-1 in those games scoring 1 as opposed to 24.) But they couldn't seem to get enough hits at the right times to take the battered pitching staff off the hook. And when they did get a well-pitched game, they didn't score at all, losing 1-0 in 11 innings.
• They actually outscored Toronto by over two runs per game in the course of losing 3-of-4.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - Marco Scutaro (.464/.500/.714/1.214) was outstanding against his former team, the Blue Jays, and kept up his hot streak through the weekend in Tampa.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - I'm open to nominations. Ok, no, I'm really not. The pitching was awful this week, and the few guys who were effective, weren't effective enough for long enough to warrant awarding.
• Red Sox Goat of the Week - I feel the need to mention two who warrant special mention. And I hate to do it, because as two of the better and more important players on the team, each is a big part of the reason that they are still in a playoff spot right now. But each was bad enough this week to warrant "special" mention. First, for the offense, we have Dustin Pedroia (.097/.125/.129/.254) with about as offensive a performance as you'll ever see. Capable of getting very, very hot, he's also capable of the opposite. He's stranding runners, killing innings, and just crippling their ability to come back. And Daniel Bard not gave up six runs in only three innings of work, he's almost single-handedly responsible for me having to listen to more "when will Tim Wakefield win his 200th game" talk.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.41	(1)	4.03	(3)	0.631	(1)	92	53	88	57	-4
Boston	5.36	(2)	4.37	(8)	0.593	(2)	87	59	85	61	-2
Texas	5.2	(3)	4.3	(6)	0.586	(3)	86	61	83	64	-3
Tampa Bay	4.31	(7)	3.77	(1)	0.562	(4)	81	64	81	64	0
Detroit	4.74	(4)	4.42	(9)	0.531	(5)	78	68	84	62	6
Los Angeles	4.1	(10)	3.86	(2)	0.528	(6)	77	69	80	66	3
Toronto	4.67	(5)	4.67	(11)	0.501	(7)	74	73	74	73	0
Chicago	4.07	(11)	4.18	(5)	0.488	(8)	71	74	73	72	2
Cleveland	4.22	(9)	4.46	(10)	0.475	(9)	68	76	72	72	4
Oakland	4.06	(12)	4.31	(7)	0.473	(10)	69	77	66	80	-3
Kansas City	4.39	(6)	4.8	(12)	0.459	(11)	68	80	62	86	-6
Seattle	3.42	(14)	4.11	(4)	0.417	(12)	61	85	61	85	0
Baltimore	4.23	(8)	5.28	(14)	0.401	(13)	58	87	58	87	0
Minnesota	3.81	(13)	4.9	(13)	0.386	(14)	56	90	59	87	3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	98	64
Boston	94	68
Detroit	93	69
Texas	91	71
Tampa Bay	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	99	63
Boston	94	68
Detroit	93	69
Texas	92	70
Tampa Bay	91	71

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	5.83	(2)	2.67	(2)	0.807	(1)	5	1	6	0	1
Los Angeles	4	(10)	2.17	(1)	0.754	(2)	5	1	4	2	-1
Texas	6.83	(1)	3.83	(7)	0.742	(3)	4	2	3	3	-1
Tampa Bay	5.33	(3)	3.5	(5)	0.684	(4)	4	2	5	1	1
Chicago	4.38	(8)	3.13	(4)	0.649	(5)	5	3	5	3	0
Baltimore	4.86	(6)	5	(9)	0.487	(6)	3	4	3	4	0
Seattle	2.86	(13)	3	(3)	0.478	(7)	3	4	3	4	0
Kansas City	4	(10)	4.43	(8)	0.454	(8)	3	4	4	3	1
Boston	5.14	(4)	5.86	(12)	0.441	(9)	3	4	1	6	-2
New York	4.43	(7)	5.14	(10)	0.432	(10)	3	4	3	4	0
Toronto	4.29	(9)	5.57	(11)	0.382	(11)	3	4	5	2	2
Oakland	5	(5)	7.67	(14)	0.314	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Cleveland	4	(10)	6.29	(13)	0.304	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Minnesota	1.86	(14)	3.71	(6)	0.22	(14)	2	5	1	6	-1

Don't have time for the full rant...

...but wanted to note this anyway. "Wins" are a lousy metric for evaluating starting pitchers. Here's just another little nugget of evidence.

On two consecutive nights, the Red Sox starting pitcher allows five runs in five innings. And the game stories in the Globe aren't even similar.
Thursday:

Wakefield handed an 8-5 lead to the bullpen.

Friday:

Miller was better this time, allowing five runs in five innings. But that was far from good enough.

Monday Pythagorean 9/5/2011

One good week, one bad week. Many more like this one, and they'll be the Wild Card...

• Really, I've got nothing to say about this week. They played badly, both offensively and defensively (Which means, in a baseball context, primarily pitching.) They played two of their likely playoff opponents and got their butts kicked. They repeatedly failed to get a big hit, or many small ones. They repeatedly failed to get a big out, or many small ones. It was a teamwide failure, and made for just dismal watching most of the way. When they led, it felt tenuous; when they trailed, it felt insurmountable. I suspect my feelings about the week are even more negative than the week was, as they went 2-4, not 0-6, and they lost 3 1/2 in the standings rather than 5 1/2. Be that as it may, there was about 10 minutes of this week that I enjoyed.
• Start the week 2 games up, finish the week 1 1/2 games back. And this was one of the stretches where they had the schedule advantage, as they played six at home and the Yankees played three at home, four on the road. The schedule advantage that Boston had is not gone, because the Yankees still have that trip west, but they squandered a big part of it on this very disappointing 4-5 homestand.
• Thank goodness they at least won one of the games against New York. The Yankees would have been 7-0 otherwise. And I suspect that the Blue Jays are going to put up more of a fight for the next four days in Rogers Center (nee Skydome) than they did over the past three in Yankee Stadium.
• It's nice that Youkilis is back. It'd be even better if he remembered how to hit.
• It's nice that Crawford hit a couple of home runs, but he continues to be an out machine.
• Crawford's OBP for the week? .318. And this was one of his good weeks. OBP for the season? .286. Unspeakably hideous. JD Drew took a lot of abuse from the Boston fan base for his disappointing 2007, his first in a Red Sox uniform, and it started early. Certain opinion makers in the Boston market didn't like the signing, and he was a target for abuse and dissatisfaction from the start. But if you look at his stats on September 5, 2007 and look at Crawford's today, you'll see that Drew was much more productive during his first five months in Boston than Crawford has been. And played just as much as Crawford has. But no one's said much about Crawford yet, other than to note that he hasn't been good. No one's putting his name on a list of "worst signings ever," which people were doing with Drew from the start. I'm not going to do that, either, but he hasn't been bad this year - he's been horrible, dreadful, hideously awful, and it warrants pointing out.
• Right this minute, I do not have the confidence that this team is as good as its record. I don't know why that is, I don't suspect that it's fair, but that's the way I feel about it. They're obviously going to the playoffs, but are they going to beat the Rangers or Tigers in a five game series? Yes, I know, it's a crapshoot, and I know that, but I don't feel good about them. I'm concerned that they can't seem to get a dominant performance out of Lester against anyone. His ERA is great for the last three months, but he struggles to get through six, leaving a lot of innings for the bullpen. I don't want to see John Lackey or Tim Wakefield or Andrew Miller start a playoff game. I worry that midnight has struck for Matt Albers, Dan Wheeler's done nothing, I don't trust Franklin Morales as far as I could throw him, and Bard and Papelbon can't give them four innings every night.
• OK, they're still a pretty good team. They're still going to be playing October baseball. Anything can still happen. But I'm in a Red Sox grumpy mood this morning.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - Ellsbury had another outstanding week, including a huge HR in one of the two wins. But the best performance of the week was from David Ortiz (.368/.520/.579/1.099), who continues to demonstrate that reports of his demise as an offensive force were greatly exaggerated. Or at the very least, premature.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Uh, no. No one. Yes, Lester did only allow one run, but only pitched five. Bedard allowed three over six (and earned his first Win in a Red Sox uniform in the process), which is a Quality Start, but not a great one. The rest of the starting performances were all worse. And the bullpen tended to come in and turn competitive games into non-competitive games. No pitcher of the week. (Don't like it, guys? Maybe give up fewer than seven [7] runs per game, and see what happens...)

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.46	(1)	3.98	(3)	0.641	(1)	88	50	85	53	-3
Boston	5.37	(2)	4.29	(7)	0.601	(2)	84	55	84	55	0
Texas	5.13	(3)	4.32	(8)	0.578	(3)	82	59	80	61	-2
Tampa Bay	4.27	(7)	3.78	(1)	0.555	(4)	77	62	76	63	-1
Los Angeles	4.11	(10)	3.94	(2)	0.519	(5)	73	67	76	64	3
Detroit	4.69	(4)	4.5	(10)	0.519	(6)	73	67	78	62	5
Toronto	4.69	(4)	4.62	(11)	0.507	(7)	71	69	69	71	-2
Cleveland	4.23	(8)	4.36	(9)	0.486	(8)	67	70	70	67	3
Oakland	4.02	(12)	4.16	(4)	0.484	(9)	68	72	64	76	-4
Chicago	4.05	(11)	4.24	(6)	0.479	(10)	66	71	68	69	2
Kansas City	4.41	(6)	4.82	(12)	0.459	(11)	65	76	58	83	-7
Seattle	3.45	(14)	4.17	(5)	0.415	(12)	58	81	58	81	0
Baltimore	4.2	(9)	5.29	(14)	0.396	(13)	55	83	55	83	0
Minnesota	3.91	(13)	4.96	(13)	0.392	(14)	55	84	58	81	3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	100	62
Boston	98	64
Texas	92	70
Detroit	90	72
Tampa Bay	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	100	62
Boston	98	64
Texas	92	70
Tampa Bay	89	73
Detroit	89	73

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	4.71	(9)	2.71	(1)	0.733	(1)	5	2	4	3	-1
Texas	6.33	(2)	3.67	(4)	0.731	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Detroit	7.86	(1)	5.14	(8)	0.685	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
New York	5	(7)	3.43	(2)	0.666	(4)	5	2	6	1	1
Toronto	6	(3)	4.71	(6)	0.609	(5)	4	3	3	4	-1
Kansas City	5.71	(4)	5	(7)	0.561	(6)	4	3	3	4	-1
Los Angeles	5.71	(4)	5.14	(8)	0.548	(7)	4	3	4	3	0
Tampa Bay	3.57	(12)	3.43	(2)	0.519	(8)	4	3	3	4	-1
Cleveland	3.86	(11)	4	(5)	0.483	(9)	3	4	5	2	2
Minnesota	5.5	(6)	6	(11)	0.46	(10)	3	3	2	4	-1
Boston	4.83	(8)	7	(13)	0.337	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Chicago	4.67	(10)	8	(14)	0.272	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Seattle	3.29	(13)	5.86	(10)	0.258	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Baltimore	3	(14)	6.43	(12)	0.199	(14)	1	6	2	5	1

Monday Pythagorean 8/29/2011

Well, that went well. There are circumstances under which 5-2 isn't good enough (none of which are in play here), but 5-2 is always a good week...

• A week ago, I said that if the Red Sox got to today only one game back, they'd have had a good week ("at least relatively"). Well, they sure did have a good week, taking 3 of 4 in Texas, and then, under grueling conditions, 2 of 3 from Oakland. But I assumed the Yankees weren't going lost two to Oakland and two more in Baltimore. But they did, and the Sox enter the week 2 games up - three up in the win column and one up in the loss column. I was wrong - they'd have to had a bad week to be one game back this morning.
• There's been a lot of concern expressed, in various places, over Adrian Gonzalez' lack of power, as he'd gone 84 at-bats between HR. He promptly hit five in three games in Texas.
• Oakland's reliever after the rain delay in the second of Saturday's games prompts the following. Name as destiny: What else could a Josh Outman have grown up to be, other than a pitcher? [Ed.: Hunter, fisher, nature guide? LB: No, it's Outman, not Outdoorsman. Ed.: Well, he could have been an umpire, right? LB: OK, that's enough out of you...]
• If the rain in the 5th inning on Saturday night had held off for five more minutes, I believe they wouldn't have started up again and played nine.
• There have been a couple of times during this eternal "Waiting for Mr. Wakefield" stretch where he's pitched well enough, and hasn't gotten run support, or has had leads blown by the bullpen. But he hasn't been great, either, and he was awful in his start this week. Are the questions about it actually affecting the team? I don't know but, as a fan, they're affecting me. The sooner this is done, the better, because I really don't want to listen to it any more.
• If the Red Sox are going to open a gap in the AL East, this is the likeliest time for it to happen. They're hosting the Yankees, with New York coming in having played three games in two days, while the Sox have had two scheduled days off. (Scheduled in the sense that they knew, leaving the park on Saturday night, that they weren't playing either Sunday or Monday.) They'll start the series with at least a 1 1/2 game lead, meaning that a sweep would have them at least 4 1/2 up on Friday morning.
• Getting swept, on the other hand, would leave them only 1 1/2 back, and still with the schedule advantage and the tie-breaker. If the Yankees want to win the division, this series is much more important for them than it is for the Sox.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - When the team left Texas and Gonzalez had performed his heroics, it was pretty much a no-brainer that the award would be his, and his .393/.452/.964/1.416 is certainly impressive. Most weeks, that's good enough. But the return of David Ortiz (.550/.571/1.200/1.771) was even better. And enough better to pretty much make up for the two games that he missed on the week.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - This week, I'm giving out two co-awards. First, in his second straight strong appearance, Andrew Miller gave the team its best start of the week, allowing the Rangers only three hits and two walks over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. And, in three scoreless, and hitless, relief appearances, covering 5 2/3 innings, Alfredo Aceves continued making key contributions.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.49	(1)	4.01	(3)	0.64	(1)	84	47	79	52	-5
Boston	5.4	(2)	4.17	(6)	0.616	(2)	82	51	82	51	0
Texas	5.08	(3)	4.35	(8)	0.571	(3)	77	58	76	59	-1
Tampa Bay	4.3	(7)	3.8	(1)	0.557	(4)	74	58	73	59	-1
Los Angeles	4.02	(11)	3.87	(2)	0.517	(5)	69	64	72	61	3
Detroit	4.53	(5)	4.47	(10)	0.506	(6)	67	66	73	60	6
Toronto	4.62	(4)	4.62	(11)	0.501	(7)	67	66	66	67	-1
Chicago	4.02	(10)	4.07	(4)	0.495	(8)	65	66	66	65	1
Cleveland	4.25	(9)	4.38	(9)	0.486	(9)	63	67	65	65	2
Oakland	3.98	(12)	4.24	(7)	0.472	(10)	63	70	60	73	-3
Kansas City	4.34	(6)	4.81	(12)	0.453	(11)	61	73	55	79	-6
Seattle	3.46	(14)	4.08	(5)	0.426	(12)	56	76	56	76	0
Baltimore	4.27	(8)	5.23	(14)	0.408	(13)	53	78	53	78	0
Minnesota	3.83	(13)	4.92	(13)	0.388	(14)	52	81	56	77	4

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	100	62
New York	98	64
Texas	91	71
Tampa Bay	90	72
Detroit	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	100	62
New York	99	63
Texas	91	71
Tampa Bay	90	72
Detroit	88	74

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Baltimore	5.86	(5)	2.43	(1)	0.834	(1)	6	1	6	1	0
Tampa Bay	4.29	(9)	2.43	(1)	0.739	(2)	5	2	4	3	-1
Boston	6.86	(2)	4.14	(5)	0.715	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Detroit	4.14	(10)	3.14	(3)	0.624	(4)	4	3	5	2	1
Los Angeles	6.6	(3)	5.6	(9)	0.575	(5)	3	2	3	2	0
New York	7.33	(1)	6.33	(11)	0.567	(6)	3	3	2	4	-1
Kansas City	4.67	(8)	4.17	(6)	0.552	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Chicago	4	(12)	3.6	(4)	0.548	(8)	3	2	3	2	0
Seattle	4.86	(7)	4.86	(7)	0.5	(9)	4	3	3	4	-1
Oakland	6.5	(4)	8.17	(14)	0.397	(10)	2	4	3	3	1
Cleveland	4.14	(10)	5.57	(8)	0.368	(11)	3	4	3	4	0
Texas	5	(6)	7.14	(13)	0.342	(12)	2	5	3	4	1
Toronto	3.33	(13)	7	(12)	0.205	(13)	1	5	1	5	0
Minnesota	2.86	(14)	6	(10)	0.205	(13)	1	6	1	6	0

Remaining schedule analysis - Boston vs. New York - 8/26

It's a strange and different schedule that Major League Baseball has put together this year, a season that started on a Friday and finishes on a Wednesday. There are just under five weeks left, and the AL East is "too close to call." (Not that it seems to matter much, as, again, the Red Sox and Yankees are both going to the playoffs [barring some miraculous intervention].) So, as we head down the home stretch, it's time to start looking at the remaining schedules.

First, a look at the overall home/away schedules.

Red Sox/Yankees Schedule Comparison - 8/26/2011

	Boston	New York
total remaining	32	33
home	19	13
away	13	20

The Red Sox have a clear advantage here. They've got one more off-day than the Yankees do in the last month, and they've got many more home games, and many fewer away games, than the Yankees. [Note: The Yankees also have one more home game against the Tampa Bay Rays that was post-poned and has not been re-scheduled. It will likely not be played until and unless it becomes necessary for resolving the standings.]

Head-to-head:

3 in Boston, 3 in New York

Common games:

	3 in Baltimore, 3 in Toronto, 3 in Tampa
	3 hosting Baltimore, 2 hosting Toronto, 3 hosting Tampa

As division rivals, a lot of the schedule actually looks pretty similar. They've got six left head-to-head, three in each stadium, so there's no advantage there. And they've each got home and away series remaining with each of the other teams in the AL East, so that part all looks the same.

Differences:

		Boston	New York
		Away
		Toronto (1)	LAAngels (3)
			Seattle (3)
			Baltimore (2)
		Home
		Oakland (3)	Minnesota (1)
		Texas (3)	Toronto (1)
		Baltimore (1)
		Tampa (1)

And there we see the real differences. Take away the head-to-head and common games, and the Yankees have eight on the road, six on the West Coast, where Boston only has one in Toronto. (Note - most of the 1-game series listed in this section aren't actually 1-game series - they're just differences between the length of series that the two teams are playing at the various sites. Boston isn't going to Toronto for one game - they're going for four, but New York's only going for three.) Boston has eight home games, New York has only two.

Advantage - BIG advantage - Boston.

In the last five weeks, New York's got to travel ~8500 miles on seven flights, Boston's got to travel ~3500 on five. Boston has two extended homestands (nine and 10 games, respectively) where they don't have any travel at all. New York's two home stands are (obviously) shorter (six and seven). Unless you believe that six at home vs. Texas and Oakland is worse than six on the road against LAA and Seattle, there's no aspect of the schedule that doesn't favor the Red Sox right now.

Not that this means that the Red Sox are going to win the East. Given the remaining schedules, and the fact that they've already got a lead, the Red Sox have got to be favored, but it's not a foregone conclusion. It would make for a very interesting September, I suspect, if it mattered. Were it not for the Wild Card, we might be looking at a re-play of 1978, the two best teams in the league battling down the stretch for the division. As it is, the battle's not particularly interesting, because the real question is whether or not they're both going to win in the first round and play in the ALCS...

It's almost that time of year...

Magic. Numbers. Are coming...

Actually, they're already here. But the relevant ones are still a couple of weeks away from being interesting. What's going to happen in the next week or so is that teams are going to start getting eliminated. The Baltimore Orioles are likely to be the first. Any combination of Baltimore losses and Boston wins equal to seven (or Baltimore losses and New York wins equal to nine [or, since the Red Sox and Yankees have to share six more losses, just five Baltimore losses]) mathematically eliminates the Orioles from contention in the AL East. (They were realistically eliminated long ago.)

Boston's magic number to win the East vs. the Yankees - 34. (Actually, 33, because in the case of a tie, the Red Sox win the division on the strength of winning the season series [and assuming, as I do, that the second place team will win the Wild Card])

New York's magic number to win the East vs. the Red Sox - 36.


How likely is it that either New York or Boston fails to make the playoffs? Well, let's look at the Red Sox for a minute. They've got 33 games remaining. Their worst 33-game stretch of the season consisted of their first 33, when they lost six straight and 10-of-12. If they repeat that to close the season, which is unlikely (they haven't had a 33-game stretch worse than 19-14 that didn't include those first six losses) but possible, they'll finish at 94-68. If they do that, the Yankees will almost certainly win the East, by going 18-17 or better in their last 35. The Red Sox would then need to finish ahead of the third place team in the East and the second place teams in the other divisions to make the playoffs.

To get to 94-68, the second place team in the Central, Cleveland, would have to go 31-4 (.885). Forget the Central.

To get to 94-68, the second place team in the West, the LAA Angels, would have to go 23-9 (.719). The third place team in the East, the Tampa Bay Rays, would have to go 24-10 (.706). Either of those results is possible; neither of those results is likely.

Nor, frankly, is the Red Sox going 15-18.

If there's going to be any drama in the AL results this year (unless you think there's great drama in which of the Red Sox or Yankees is the division winner and which is the Wild Card), it's going to come in the West or the Central. Or as a result of a complete melt-down by Boston or New York. Or a mini-meltdown accompanied by a historic stretch from the Angels or Rays. Not impossible. But not at all likely...

Monday Pythagorean 8/22/2011

Chapter 21 - In which the 2011 Red Sox play the role of the 2010 Red Sox and consistently run out a lineup with many of their best players missing...

• The week started with David Ortiz missing from the lineup with bursitis in his heel. The good news continued when Kevin Youkilis joined him on the sidelines with a sore back. And then they spent the weekend sans Ellsbury after getting plunked and bruising his back.
• Then toss in the remain superstars - Dustin Pedroia (.240/.321/.280/.601) and Adrian Gonzalez (.160/.241/.240/.481) - slumping through the week and you end up with the dominant offense in baseball scoring 3.7 runs per game, and being held to three hits in three consecutive games at Fenway.
• It hasn't been just the offense, of course. When the Royals scored first on Friday night, that marked the tenth consecutive game in which the opposition put the first run on the board, dating back to the previous Monday in Minnesota. They finally broke that stretch on Saturday, and then the pitching melted down in one 8-run inning for the Royals that cost the Sox a chance at the sweep.
• The single biggest reason that I'm rooting for Tim Wakefield to collect his 200th career win is so that I can stop hearing about how Tim Wakefield is going for his 200th career win.
• I believed that Boston was a better team than New York. They have not been. The Yankees have had a better run differential most of the way, because they've allowed many fewer runs (I will confess to being shocked by how good their pitching has been), but as of today, they've outscored the Red Sox, too. Against the rest of baseball, New York is 8 1/2 games ahead of the Red Sox. If the Red Sox hadn't taken 10-of-12 (so far), the division race would be basically over. (Most of New York's advantage comes against two teams - they're 13-4 against Texas and Chicago, while the Red Sox are 2-7).
• The schedule for the upcoming week is not favorable, either. Each team has three home games against the A's. Aside from that, Boston has four in Texas, while New York has three in Baltimore and an off-day. If the Sox are only one back next Monday morning, they'll have had a good week, at least relatively.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - There wasn't one. Jacoby Ellsbury (.294/.381/.765/1.146) was pretty good in five games before leaving with an injury and not finishing the week, and Ryan Lavarnway (.333/.412/.400/.812 in his first Major league action) and Darnell McDonald (.294/.316/.588/.904, which isn't great but vastly exceeds what he'd done so far this year) warrant mention, but it's my award, and I don't have to give it if I think no one deserves it. And that's what I think.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - In two starts, both of which the Red Sox won, Jon Lester gave up two runs in 13 innings of work.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.4	(1)	3.9	(3)	0.645	(1)	81	44	77	48	-4
Boston	5.32	(2)	4.17	(7)	0.609	(2)	77	49	77	49	0
Texas	5.09	(3)	4.2	(8)	0.587	(3)	75	53	73	55	-2
Tampa Bay	4.3	(7)	3.87	(2)	0.548	(4)	69	56	69	56	0
Toronto	4.69	(4)	4.5	(10)	0.518	(5)	66	61	65	62	-1
Los Angeles	3.92	(11)	3.8	(1)	0.514	(6)	66	62	69	59	3
Detroit	4.55	(5)	4.54	(11)	0.501	(7)	63	63	68	58	5
Cleveland	4.26	(8)	4.32	(9)	0.494	(8)	61	62	62	61	1
Chicago	4.02	(10)	4.09	(6)	0.493	(9)	62	64	63	63	1
Oakland	3.87	(13)	4.06	(5)	0.478	(10)	61	66	57	70	-4
Kansas City	4.33	(6)	4.84	(12)	0.449	(11)	57	71	52	76	-5
Seattle	3.38	(14)	4.03	(4)	0.421	(12)	53	72	53	72	0
Minnesota	3.89	(12)	4.86	(13)	0.4	(13)	50	76	55	71	5
Baltimore	4.18	(9)	5.39	(14)	0.386	(14)	48	76	47	77	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	100	62
Boston	99	63
Texas	92	70
Tampa Bay	89	73
Los Angeles	87	75

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	101	61
Boston	99	63
Texas	93	69
Tampa Bay	89	73
Los Angeles	86	76

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	5	(4)	2.33	(1)	0.801	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Detroit	6.67	(1)	4.17	(7)	0.703	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Toronto	4.57	(6)	3	(2)	0.684	(3)	5	2	4	3	-1
New York	6.14	(2)	4.29	(8)	0.659	(4)	5	2	5	2	0
Chicago	4.67	(5)	4	(5)	0.57	(5)	3	3	3	3	0
Los Angeles	5.14	(3)	4.57	(9)	0.554	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Boston	3.71	(13)	3.57	(4)	0.518	(7)	4	3	4	3	0
Texas	4.14	(10)	4.14	(6)	0.5	(8)	4	3	4	3	0
Oakland	3.29	(14)	3.43	(3)	0.481	(9)	3	4	4	3	1
Kansas City	4.29	(8)	5.86	(11)	0.361	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Minnesota	4.29	(8)	5.86	(11)	0.361	(10)	3	4	3	4	0
Cleveland	4	(11)	5.5	(10)	0.358	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Baltimore	4.5	(7)	6.67	(13)	0.328	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
Seattle	3.83	(12)	7	(14)	0.249	(14)	1	5	1	5	0

Monday Pythagorean, 8/15/2011

A relentlessly mediocre week, in which they did nothing very well and nothing very poorly, ends up with the expected 3-3 record...

• The offense had one of those weeks, with excellent production from Ortiz and Gonzalez, and not much else. Some of the backups had good performances in few at-bats, but there wasn't a lot of production from anyone else, and it showed, as they lost three games in which they only allowed five runs. Not that five runs is a great pitching performance, but you'd expect a team with this team's offense to win more often than not when allowing five. This week, they were 1-3 when the opposition scored 5+.
• That's not to say that only the offense wasn't good, because the pitching wasn't good, either. If it seemed as if they were playing from behind every day, well, that's because they were pretty much playing from behind every day. The starters finished the week with a 5.17 ERA and just over six innings of work per game.
• They've had their share of good luck this year. They had a couple of different pieces of bad luck yesterday. One was the "safe" call at second base yesterday when Lowrie may (or may not) have missed the bag. Whether one likes it or not, that call virtually always goes to the fielder, even in cases much more egregious than that one. And it may not have even been technically correct, as Lowrie claims to have touched the bag, and there's no visual evidence disproving that. A bad call, and it helped produce a three-run lead that they never quite overcame.
• The other piece of bad luck came in the Bronx, when the Yankees-Rays game was rained out, meaning that a) New York missed a game against James Shields and b) the Red Sox picked up a game against James Shields.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - David Ortiz (.500/.577/.955/1.531) had far and away the most productive week of the position players.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - No blowout wins, no great starting performances, so, as much as I don't care for "saves" as a stat, this looks like Jonathan Papelbon's week. He saved all three of their wins, giving up only one hit in three innings of work with three strikeouts. With two 2-run leads and a 1-run lead, all three games were losable, but he allowed almost nothing, and closed them quickly. (With "quickly" being a relative term with Papelbon on the mound...)

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.36	(2)	3.87	(2)	0.644	(1)	76	42	72	46	-4
Boston	5.41	(1)	4.21	(8)	0.613	(2)	73	46	73	46	0
Texas	5.14	(3)	4.2	(7)	0.592	(3)	72	49	69	52	-3
Tampa Bay	4.27	(8)	3.95	(4)	0.536	(4)	64	55	64	55	0
Los Angeles	3.85	(13)	3.76	(1)	0.511	(5)	62	59	65	56	3
Toronto	4.69	(4)	4.59	(11)	0.51	(6)	61	59	61	59	0
Cleveland	4.27	(7)	4.26	(9)	0.502	(7)	59	58	60	57	1
Chicago	3.99	(10)	4.09	(5)	0.489	(8)	59	61	60	60	1
Detroit	4.44	(5)	4.56	(10)	0.488	(9)	59	61	64	56	5
Oakland	3.9	(11)	4.09	(5)	0.478	(10)	57	63	53	67	-4
Kansas City	4.33	(6)	4.79	(12)	0.454	(11)	55	66	50	71	-5
Seattle	3.36	(14)	3.88	(3)	0.434	(12)	52	67	52	67	0
Minnesota	3.87	(12)	4.8	(13)	0.402	(13)	48	71	52	67	4
Baltimore	4.16	(9)	5.32	(14)	0.389	(14)	46	72	46	72	0

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	99	63
Boston	99	63
Texas	92	70
Tampa Bay	87	75
Los Angeles	87	75

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	100	62
Boston	99	63
Texas	93	69
Tampa Bay	87	75
Los Angeles	86	76

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	7	(1)	3.33	(3)	0.795	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Cleveland	4.4	(7)	2.4	(1)	0.752	(2)	4	1	4	1	0
New York	5.8	(2)	4.2	(6)	0.644	(3)	3	2	3	2	0
Tampa Bay	4.17	(10)	3.17	(2)	0.623	(4)	4	2	5	1	1
Chicago	4.71	(5)	4.14	(5)	0.559	(5)	4	3	5	2	1
Toronto	4.83	(4)	4.83	(9)	0.5	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Boston	4.5	(6)	4.67	(8)	0.483	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Baltimore	5	(3)	5.29	(10)	0.475	(8)	3	4	2	5	-1
Minnesota	3.4	(13)	4	(4)	0.426	(9)	2	3	1	4	-1
Seattle	4.33	(8)	5.33	(11)	0.406	(10)	2	4	3	3	1
Detroit	4.17	(10)	5.5	(12)	0.376	(11)	2	4	3	3	1
Oakland	4.33	(8)	5.83	(13)	0.367	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Los Angeles	4.17	(10)	6	(14)	0.339	(13)	2	4	2	4	0
Kansas City	2.86	(14)	4.29	(7)	0.323	(14)	2	5	1	6	-1

Monday Pythagorean, 8/8/2011

Another 4-3 week, and the division lead erodes again...

• On August 7th, Boston clinched the season series against the Yankees, running their head-to-head record against New York to 10-2. If the two teams finish the season with identical records, the Red Sox win the AL East. (OK, not necessarily. It's still mathematically possible for a second place team from one of the other divisions to finish ahead of both, which would mean that whoever didn't win the East would not be the Wild Card, and they'd have to have a playoff to determine the division winner. I am discounting that possibility, as I find it very unlikely.)
• Statistics line of the week:
  

  CC Sabatha - 2011

  	GS	W	L	IP	BFP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	ERA	WHIP	IP/game
  vs. All	25	16	6	182.67	744	162	64	57	8	46	168	5	2.81	1.17	7.31
  vs. Boston	4	0	4	25.00	117	33	20	20	2	10	21	3	7.20	1.84	6.25
  vs. Everyone else	21	16	2	157.67	627	129	44	37	6	36	147	2	2.11	1.06	7.51





• A cautionary note for Sox fans who want to read too much into those Sabathia numbers...
  

  Josh Beckett vs. Yankees

  	GS	W	L	IP	BFP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
  2010	5	1	2	26	134	40	31	29	9	13	26	10.04	2.15
  2011	4	3	0	27	105	16	3	3	2	7	30	1.00	1.00





• One more sobering thought for Red Sox fans. The Red Sox are eight games ahead of the Yankees in head-to-head play. The Yankees are seven games ahead of Boston vs. the rest of baseball. And the Yankees still have the best run differential in the game.




• Here's another interesting line - Jarod Saltalamacchia reached base safely just four times this week, with two hits and two walks. And yet he scored five runs. (One of those was as a pinch-runner.)




• Red Sox Player of the Week - The obvious choice for the award this week was Jacoby Ellsbury (.276/.313/.552/.864) but he actually had a good, not great, week. It looked great, though, because his few hits came in memorable circumstances, with his one-fers on Tuesday and Wednesday both ending the games, and then his three-run homer on Saturday giving Boston a big cushion against Sabathia. But the best performance of the week came from Carl Crawford (.429/.448/.679/1.127), whose 12 hits included one HR and four doubles.




• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - He didn't get a win in either game, but they won both of his starts, largely on the strength of Josh Beckett's performances. Over 12 innings, he allowed three runs, going six strong twice during the week.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.53	(2)	4	(3)	0.644	(1)	73	40	69	44	-4
Boston	5.66	(1)	4.34	(7)	0.619	(2)	70	43	70	43	0
Texas	5.23	(3)	4.4	(8)	0.578	(3)	67	48	64	51	-3
Tampa Bay	4.43	(7)	4.14	(5)	0.531	(4)	60	53	59	54	-1
Los Angeles	3.97	(13)	3.77	(1)	0.523	(5)	60	55	63	52	3
Toronto	4.85	(4)	4.75	(11)	0.51	(6)	58	56	58	56	0
Detroit	4.62	(5)	4.67	(10)	0.495	(7)	56	58	61	53	5
Cleveland	4.43	(8)	4.5	(9)	0.492	(8)	55	57	56	56	1
Oakland	3.98	(12)	4.11	(4)	0.486	(9)	55	59	51	63	-4
Chicago	4.09	(10)	4.24	(6)	0.484	(10)	55	58	55	58	0
Kansas City	4.58	(6)	4.99	(12)	0.461	(11)	53	61	49	65	-4
Seattle	3.4	(14)	3.91	(2)	0.437	(12)	49	64	49	64	0
Minnesota	4.03	(11)	5.01	(13)	0.401	(13)	46	68	51	63	5
Baltimore	4.26	(9)	5.52	(14)	0.384	(14)	43	68	44	67	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	100	62
New York	99	63
Texas	90	72
Los Angeles	89	73
Detroit	87	75

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	101	61
Boston	100	62
Texas	91	71
Los Angeles	88	74
Tampa Bay	85	77

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Seattle	4.17	(9)	2.33	(1)	0.743	(1)	4	2	4	2	0
New York	6.14	(1)	3.71	(3)	0.715	(2)	5	2	5	2	0
Cleveland	5.43	(2)	4.86	(9)	0.551	(3)	4	3	3	4	-1
Kansas City	4.5	(5)	4.17	(5)	0.535	(4)	3	3	3	3	0
Tampa Bay	4.83	(4)	4.5	(7)	0.533	(5)	3	3	3	3	0
Texas	5.33	(3)	5	(10)	0.529	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Los Angeles	3.33	(13)	3.17	(2)	0.523	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Boston	4.43	(7)	4.29	(6)	0.515	(8)	4	3	4	3	0
Detroit	4	(11)	4	(4)	0.5	(9)	3	3	4	2	1
Oakland	4.5	(5)	5.17	(11)	0.437	(10)	3	3	2	4	-1
Baltimore	4.33	(8)	5.17	(11)	0.42	(11)	3	3	2	4	-1
Toronto	4	(11)	4.83	(8)	0.414	(12)	2	4	3	3	1
Chicago	4.14	(10)	5.43	(13)	0.379	(13)	3	4	3	4	0
Minnesota	2.83	(14)	5.67	(14)	0.22	(14)	1	5	1	5	0

Monday Pythagorean, 8/1/2011

4-3, given where they are is a) disappointing, given the competition and b) perfectly acceptable...

• The lead over the Yankees dropped by one game this week. Of course, as feeble as the Red Sox' competition was, it was much better than the competition the Yankees faced, with seven - at home - against Baltimore and Seattle. Losing two of those was as bad as Boston's losing three to KC and Chicago.
• I hated the Harden trade. Not that Lars Anderson is ever going to get a chance to do anything in a Boston uniform, but you ought to be able to get something useful for him, and it's hard to imagine getting anything from Harden at this point. After looking at his medical information, they apparently came to the same conclusion, and the deal fell through.
• I have no strong feelings about the Bedard trade. He has, at times, been an effective Major League pitcher. He missed all of 2010, and, before Friday night's awful start, hadn't pitched in a month, but before going down with a sprained knee, he'd been excellent. [Ignore the 4-6 W-L record - Seattle can't score.] It's impossible to say for sure what he's got left, but if Buchholz is done for the season (and at this point, that's a legitimate concern), Bedard is one of the few available starters that has the potential to be a difference maker. On the other side, I've got no strong opinions about any of the minor leaguers they gave up for him. A cursory glance reveals no reason to expect any of the four to ever make an impact in the Majors (though Chiang, who is hitting .338/.399/.647/1.046 in his second year in Portland, may spend some time in the show, and I know some people who think highly of Fife.) In fact, it's fair to say that, as I finish making this comment, I like the trade better - much better - than I did when I started it.
• The Red Sox finish the month of July with a stellar 20-6 record on the backs of a few outstanding individual performances. The best of these was probably Dustin Pedroia's .411/.465/.723/1.188 (looking for another MVP?), while Adrian Gonzalez (.373/.449/.500/.949) continued hot. But the most encouraging, to me, was Jacoby Ellsbury, whose .382/.430/.700/1.130 was a better month than I ever expected him to put together. He's definitely exceeded my expectations, and is living up to, if not exceeding, the hopes and dreams of the organization.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - The players that had great Julys were great this week, led by Dustin Pedroia, who continued to play stellar defense while putting up a .433/.457/.733/1.190 line.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - A couple more scoreless innings from Daniel Bard, a couple of clutch outings from Alfredo Aceves, and the bullpen just keeps on rolling. But the big news was the successful return of Jon Lester, who allowed only three runs in 13 1/3 innings in two excellent starts on the week, showing no rust or other ill effects of his stint on the DL.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.28	(2)	3.87	(2)	0.639	(1)	68	38	64	42	-4
Boston	5.53	(1)	4.18	(7)	0.625	(2)	66	40	66	40	0
Texas	5.03	(3)	4.2	(8)	0.581	(3)	63	46	61	48	-2
Tampa Bay	4.24	(7)	3.96	(5)	0.531	(4)	57	50	56	51	-1
Los Angeles	3.86	(12)	3.67	(1)	0.523	(5)	57	52	59	50	2
Toronto	4.72	(4)	4.56	(11)	0.516	(6)	56	52	55	53	-1
Detroit	4.48	(5)	4.54	(10)	0.494	(7)	53	55	57	51	4
Chicago	3.93	(11)	4	(6)	0.492	(8)	52	54	52	54	0
Oakland	3.84	(13)	3.94	(4)	0.489	(9)	53	55	49	59	-4
Cleveland	4.19	(8)	4.3	(9)	0.488	(10)	51	54	53	52	2
Kansas City	4.42	(6)	4.85	(13)	0.457	(11)	49	59	46	62	-3
Seattle	3.26	(14)	3.89	(3)	0.42	(12)	45	62	45	62	0
Minnesota	3.94	(10)	4.79	(12)	0.412	(13)	45	63	50	58	5
Baltimore	4.1	(9)	5.33	(14)	0.381	(14)	40	65	42	63	2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	101	61
New York	98	64
Texas	91	71
Los Angeles	88	74
Detroit	86	76

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	101	61
New York	100	62
Texas	92	70
Los Angeles	87	75
Tampa Bay	85	77

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	6.71	(2)	3.57	(1)	0.76	(1)	5	2	5	2	0
Boston	6.43	(3)	4.14	(3)	0.691	(2)	5	2	4	3	-1
Oakland	7.71	(1)	5	(9)	0.689	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Texas	6	(4)	4.71	(7)	0.609	(4)	4	3	3	4	-1
Kansas City	5.71	(5)	5.29	(10)	0.536	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
Los Angeles	4	(11)	4	(2)	0.5	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Toronto	4.17	(9)	4.17	(4)	0.5	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Tampa Bay	5.43	(6)	5.43	(11)	0.5	(6)	4	3	3	4	-1
Detroit	4.57	(8)	4.71	(7)	0.486	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Chicago	3.33	(12)	4.17	(4)	0.399	(10)	2	4	3	3	1
Minnesota	5.43	(6)	7.71	(14)	0.345	(11)	2	5	3	4	1
Baltimore	4.14	(10)	6.57	(13)	0.301	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Seattle	2.83	(13)	5.67	(12)	0.22	(13)	1	5	2	4	1
Cleveland	2.17	(14)	4.33	(6)	0.22	(14)	1	5	2	4	1

Red Sox Jeopardy

A: Kevin Youkilis
Q: Who was the only one of the top seven hitters in the Red Sox lineup not to homer in their 10-4 win over the Orioles?


The Red Sox were fortunate, though, taking advantage of a bad call by the first base umpire to take a 4-3 lead in the 4th. Once again, it's a foolish situation for baseball to be in. Before Buck Showalter had even made it out to start arguing the call, millions of people had seen three conclusive replays demonstrating that the call was wrong. It makes no sense for baseball not to hire someone to watch those replays professionally and call down to the umps. Not everything is clear, and so you can't fix everything. But it's silly not to fix the ones that are fixable, as that so clearly was.

Monday Pythagorean, 7/4/2011

Not many style points accumulated, and it looked and felt kind of iffy, but 4-2 is almost always a productive week, and this wasn't one of the exceptions...

• Busy week. Little commentary.
• Many of the Red Sox seemed to feel that Jon Lester was snubbed in the All Star selection process. I think I'm as big a Lester guy as there is, and I don't see it. He's been good so far, but not great, as his 3.43 ERA is not in the top 10 in the AL. He certainly hasn't been as good as Beckett or Weaver or Verlander or Haren or Masterson or Sabathia or Shields or Humber. When you can name eight AL starters who have been clearly better, there's not much of a case to be made that he's been snubbed.
• Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz are clearly good choices. And I don't have a problem with Ellsbury going either. He's been excellent, and while I'm not certain that he's been one of the three best outfielders in the AL thus far, I'm not certain that he hasn't, either.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - Since having his knee examined and medically cleared, Dustin Pedrioa has been on a tear. That continued this week, as he hit .304/.429/.478/.907 with a home run and five doubles.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The best individual game by the numbers was Josh Beckett's gem on Sunday afternoon, but he also had a bad start, and an eight-inning shutout of the Astros is less impressive than a seven-inning shutout of the Phillies. So the pitcher of the week is Jon Lester, who wasn't snubbed, but was still outstanding in his only start of the week, allowing only two hits and two walks in seven scoreless innings against Philadelphia.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.28	(1)	3.8	(4)	0.646	(1)	53	29	50	32	-3
Boston	5.23	(2)	4.13	(7)	0.606	(2)	50	33	49	34	-1
Tampa Bay	4.25	(8)	3.82	(5)	0.548	(3)	46	38	47	37	1
Texas	4.75	(3)	4.49	(9)	0.526	(4)	45	40	44	41	-1
Cleveland	4.34	(7)	4.15	(8)	0.521	(5)	43	39	44	38	1
Los Angeles	3.8	(11)	3.71	(3)	0.511	(6)	43	42	44	41	1
Toronto	4.52	(5)	4.51	(10)	0.501	(7)	43	42	41	44	-2
Detroit	4.59	(4)	4.61	(11)	0.498	(8)	42	43	45	40	3
Chicago	4.04	(10)	4.08	(6)	0.495	(9)	42	43	42	43	0
Seattle	3.4	(14)	3.48	(1)	0.491	(10)	41	43	41	43	0
Oakland	3.52	(13)	3.65	(2)	0.483	(11)	41	44	38	47	-3
Kansas City	4.4	(6)	5.04	(14)	0.439	(12)	37	47	34	50	-3
Baltimore	4.09	(9)	4.84	(13)	0.423	(13)	34	47	36	45	2
Minnesota	3.77	(12)	4.71	(12)	0.4	(14)	33	49	36	46	3

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	99	63
Boston	96	66
Tampa Bay	91	71
Cleveland	87	75
Detroit	86	76

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	102	60
Boston	97	65
Tampa Bay	90	72
Cleveland	86	76
Texas	84	78

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.67	(1)	1.67	(1)	0.904	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Los Angeles	4.33	(7)	2.5	(2)	0.732	(2)	4	2	5	1	1
Cleveland	5.17	(3)	3.67	(8)	0.652	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	4.17	(8)	3.17	(6)	0.623	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Chicago	3.17	(11)	2.67	(4)	0.578	(5)	3	3	4	2	1
Seattle	2.83	(14)	2.5	(2)	0.557	(6)	3	3	2	4	-1
Tampa Bay	3.83	(10)	3.5	(7)	0.542	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Texas	5.67	(1)	5.33	(10)	0.528	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Oakland	3.17	(11)	3	(5)	0.525	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Toronto	4	(9)	4.86	(9)	0.412	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Minnesota	4.83	(4)	6	(12)	0.402	(11)	2	4	4	2	2
Kansas City	4.67	(6)	6.33	(13)	0.364	(12)	2	4	1	5	-1
Detroit	4.71	(5)	8	(14)	0.275	(13)	2	5	3	4	1
Baltimore	3	(13)	5.5	(11)	0.248	(14)	1	5	1	5	0