Monday, June 15, 2015

Monday pythagorean - 6/15/2015

That sound we hear, in the distance, but approaching rapidly, is Dandy Don Meredith and Maria Callas singing a duet of "Turn Out The Lights, The Party's Over..."

The Week That Was:

  • 6/9 - @Baltimore 1 - Boston 0 - Another outstanding performance from Eduardo Rodriguez, and another pathetic performance from the Red Sox offense.


  • 6/10 - @Baltimore 5 - Boston 2 - The offensive struggles, and Rick Porcello's unimpressive performance, result in another desultory loss in Baltimore.


  • 6/11 - @Baltimore 6 - Boston 5 - After pitching very well for a month and a half, Wade Miley struggles, as the Orioles score in each of the first innings. The Red Sox fight back, repeatedly, but never completely close the gap as the Orioles complete the sweep.


  • 6/12 - Toronto 13 - @Boston 10 - In a season filled with lowest points, we reach another, as the Red Sox take an early 8-1 lead back at home against the Blue Jays, and watch it disappear in an epic 7th inning in which the first 9 Toronto batters reach and score. The Red Sox do get the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the inning, but Mike Napoli strikes out to end any reasonable hopes of a comeback.


  • 6/13 - Toronto 5 - @Boston 4 - Buchholz gives up 3 in the second, putting the Red Sox in a hole, again. Toronto scores the first four runs of the game, but Boston comes back with three of their own in the bottom of the fourth, and ties it in the 6th. But they don't score again, and an 11th inning HR from Russel Martin gives the Blue Jays the winning margin.


  • 6/14 - Toronto 13 - @Boston 5 - Eduardo Rodriguez' string of spectacular starts ends at three, as the Blue Jays score six in the fourth, and four more in the process of knocking him out of the game in the fifth.








Thoughts and commentary...

  • In consecutive home innings (7 in the 8th on Sunday, 5 in the first on Friday), the Red Sox scored 12 runs. In 27 innings in between in Baltimore, they scored 7.


  • They got to 10 on Friday night, the first time in the 2015 season that they had scored double-digit runs. They allowed 13 and lost.


  • They continue to lose in every way possible. They lost a game this week in which they allowed only one run. They lost another in which they scored 10. They lose with bad defense, with bad offense, with bad pitching, with great opponent offense, with great opponent defense, with great opponent pitching - any way that there is to lose a game, they find it and use it.


  • I didn't want them to sign Pablo Sandoval, and I didn't like the contract. But I did acknowledge that it was my opinion that no team in baseball upgraded any single position over the offseason as much as the Red Sox upgraded at third base. That appears not to have been the case.


  • That said, he had a much better week than many that he's had thus far. Pablo Sandoval (.348/.348/.652/1.000, 4.51 runs created, 7.05 RC/25 outs)


  • I really expected great things from Mike Napoli, too. Wow, was I wrong. What a week - Mike Napoli (.063/.059/.063/.121, -1.02 runs created, -1.60 RC/25 outs) - ugh.


  • Red Sox Goat of the Week - This one is shared. The Red Sox led Toronto 8-4 on Friday night when Matt Barnes came in to pitch the seventh. Three hits later, he was replaced by Junichi Tazawa. Four hits and one error later, he was replaced by Tommy Layne, who allowed a HR to the first batter he faced. It was the ninth Toronto batter of the inning, and the ninth batter to score. Barnes and Tazawa allowed the 8 men that they faced to reach and score, turning (with the help of one pitch from Layne) a four-run seventh inning lead into a five-run seventh inning deficit. They did not retire a single batter.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - He insists that he's not done, and for one week anyway, that looks to be true. David Ortiz (.333/.455/.833/1.288, 6.16 runs created, 12.83 RC/25 outs) had a great, albeit meaningless in the long run, week.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - None. Three relief pitchers - Heath Hembree, Alexi Ogando and Koji Uehara, allowed 0 runs. Everyone else on the staff had an ERA of 5.79 or worse.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/15/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto5.56(1)4.45(13)0.6(1)38263430-4
Kansas City4.25(6)3.49(2)0.589(2)35243425-1
Houston4.27(5)3.84(3)0.548(3)352936281
NY Yankees4.63(2)4.26(10)0.538(4)332934281
Tampa Bay3.69(13)3.47(1)0.528(5)343035291
Baltimore4.27(4)4.03(6)0.527(6)33293131-2
Oakland4.2(8)3.97(5)0.526(7)34312639-8
Texas4.59(3)4.41(12)0.518(8)333033300
Detroit4.19(9)4.13(7)0.507(9)323133301
Minnesota4.24(7)4.21(9)0.503(10)313134283
LA Angels3.94(11)3.97(4)0.496(11)313232311
Cleveland4.18(10)4.34(11)0.483(12)30322933-1
Seattle3.43(15)4.14(8)0.414(13)263728352
Chicago Sox3.62(14)4.49(14)0.403(14)253628333
Boston3.86(12)4.8(15)0.402(15)263827371
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Kansas City9369
Houston9171
NY Yankees8973
Tampa Bay8973
Minnesota8973
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Kansas City9567
Toronto9369
Houston9072
NY Yankees8874
Tampa Bay8775
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto8.83(1)4.5(10)0.775(1)51601
Oakland4.17(8)2.17(2)0.768(2)5133-2
Baltimore5.83(2)3.17(4)0.754(3)51510
Houston4.67(4)3.17(4)0.67(4)4224-2
Kansas City2.8(14)2(1)0.649(5)32320
Detroit5(3)3.6(7)0.646(6)32320
Chicago Sox3.5(11)3(3)0.57(7)33330
LA Angels3.83(9)3.33(6)0.564(8)33421
Texas4.33(6)4.33(8)0.5(9)33330
Tampa Bay3.67(10)4.33(8)0.424(10)33421
NY Yankees4.4(5)5.8(13)0.376(11)23230
Cleveland2.83(13)4.67(11)0.286(12)24240
Boston4.33(6)7.17(15)0.285(13)2406-2
Seattle3.33(12)5.83(14)0.264(14)24331
Minnesota2.67(15)5.33(12)0.22(15)15150

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