Monday, April 27, 2015

Monday pythagorean, 4/27/2015

The first poor week of the season, as they lose back-to-back series on the road in the division en route to a 3-4 week... The Week That Was:
  • 4/20 - @Boston 7 - Baltimore 1 - In the rain on Patriots' Day, Justin Masterson pitches well and Wei-yin Chen does not. Boston breaks a 1-1 tie with four in the 3rd, making it a 5-1 game, with all five of Boston's runs being unearned, and the Red Sox eventually win a rain-shortened seven inning game.


  • 4/21 - Boston 1 - @Tampa 0 - Wade Miley's start is significantly better than his last one, as he allows no runs in 5 2/3, Alexi Ogando comes in to get the last out of the 6th with the bases loaded, and the Red Sox score yet another unearned run on yet another opponent error for Miley's first win in a Boston uniform.


  • 4/22 - @Tampa 7 - Boston 5 - Joe Kelly has an effective start as the Red Sox take a 5-1 lead into the bottom of the 6th. But he struggles and the bullpen comes in to pour gas on the fire, as Tampa scores four in the 6th and two more in the 7th.


  • 4/23 - @Tampa 2 - Boston 1 - The Red Sox lose their first series of the year as the offense fails to support a strong effort from Clay Buchholz. Each team scores one in the 2nd, and the Rays walk-off with another in the 9th.


  • 4/24 - Boston 7 - @Baltimore 5 - A mediocre performance from Rick Porcello is overcome by the offense, as Ortiz (3 runs) and Ramirez go back-to-back in the 5th, and then Brock Holt breaks a 4-4 tie with a 3-run HR in the 8th, as Boston continues its streak of winning the first game of each series it has played in 2015.


  • 4/25 - @Baltimore 5 - Boston 4 (10) - In a game that they've no business winning, Boston is aided by Baltimore base-running and defensive lapses as they tie it in the 9th, and then take a 4-3 lead on a Xander Bogaerts HR in the top of the 10th. But then Koji Uehara comes in to close it out, and gives up a lead-off triple, aided by an Allen Craig diving catch attempt, a sacrifice fly and a HR to lose the game.


  • 4/26 - @Baltimore 18 - Boston 7 - Pablo Sandoval hits his first Boston HR and Hanley Ramirez hits two more, but The Red Sox get another disaster start from Wade Miley as things start badly and go downhill from there.




Thoughts and commentary...

  • Three times this week, the Red Sox scored 7 runs in a game. In those games, in which they were 2-1, they were outscored by three.


  • Three times, they had a starter go at least five and allow only fewer than two runs. They were 2-1 in those two games.


  • So they were 1-3 when scoring fewer than 7 runs. They were 1-4 when allowing more than 1 run.


  • On the positive front - Pablo Sandoval and Mike Napoli each hit their first home runs of the 2015 season.


  • Hanley Ramirez continues to hit, with three more HR this week, bringing his total to eight on the young season.


  • I fully expect the "we need an Ace! We need more starting pitching!" brigade to be in full-voice mode this morning on the heels of another disaster start from Mr. Miley. It's worth noting, though, that in the first six games of the week, the starters had gone at least five, and averaged almost six, with an ERA of 3.63. That should be plenty good enough for this team, but they combined untimely offense (2-1 loss on Thursday) and untimely bullpen problems (4-3 loss on Saturday) to put up an under .500 week that could easily have been better.


  • Yes, they were outscored by six runs on the week, but they were outscored by 11 on Sunday in one disaster start. They outscored the opposition by five in going 3-3 during the first six games of the week, and each of the three losses could have easily been a win.


  • Nothing has happened yet to alleviate my fear that the Uehara re-signing was a mistake. I didn't dislike the signing, but felt uneasy, worried that it was more of a "wow, he was great in 2013 and we love him" move than a cold-hearted, "it's not personal, just business" move. Belichick wouldn't have done it. So it was concerning to listen to Don and Jerry discussing his velocity during the Adam Jones at-bat in the 10th inning on Saturday night, and while feelings of impending doom are not always and inevitably followed by said doom arriving, it was disturbing and disappointing to see that inning go so badly so quickly.


  • It's one thing for a pitcher to be up-and-down. A team doesn't need everyone of its starters to be great every time out. But what will kill you is the disaster starts, a start where a starter give up 7 or more without getting out of the third inning. Wade Miley's done that in two of his last three starts.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - The Brock Star [Brock Holt (.364/.533/.636/1.170, 3.79 runs created, 11.85 RC/25 outs)] had another great week as he's off to another tremendous start. But the player of the week award goes to the big money free agent who was brought in to hit and is doing so, Hanley Ramirez (.391/.440/.783/1.223, 7.16 runs created, 12.78 RC/25 outs)


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The best start of the week came from Clay Buchholz, who allowed only one run in six innings in a loss in Tampa on Wednesday. But Justin Masterson was effective twice, allowing four runs in 12 innings, while coming one Uehara breakdown away from leading Boston to two wins vs. division rival and defending AL East champions Baltimore.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/27/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Kansas City4.94(5)3.28(1)0.68(1)1261260
NY Yankees5.21(3)4.11(7)0.607(2)127118-1
Detroit4.74(7)4(4)0.577(3)1181362
Oakland4.8(6)4.25(9)0.555(4)119812-3
Houston3.89(11)3.56(2)0.541(5)1081171
Tampa Bay4.26(8)4(4)0.529(6)1091181
Toronto5.26(2)5.05(13)0.519(7)109910-1
Baltimore5.47(1)5.37(14)0.509(8)109910-1
LA Angels3.95(9)3.89(3)0.506(9)109910-1
Boston5(4)5.37(14)0.468(10)9101091
Cleveland3.76(12)4.18(8)0.453(11)89611-2
Chicago Sox3.53(14)4.06(6)0.436(12)710891
Texas3.94(10)4.78(11)0.413(13)7117110
Seattle3.72(13)4.94(12)0.373(14)7117110
Minnesota3.33(15)4.5(10)0.366(15)7118101
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit11151
Kansas City10854
Houston9963
NY Yankees9468
Tampa Bay9468
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Kansas City11052
NY Yankees9864
Detroit9567
Houston8973
Oakland8775
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay5(3)2.17(1)0.822(1)51510
NY Yankees5(3)3.14(3)0.7(2)52520
Houston6(2)4(7)0.677(3)42511
LA Angels4.57(7)3.43(5)0.629(4)43430
Chicago Sox3.67(11)2.83(2)0.616(5)42420
Cleveland4.83(6)4.17(9)0.567(6)3324-1
Kansas City3.5(12)3.17(4)0.546(7)33330
Texas4(10)4(7)0.5(8)3223-1
Minnesota3.5(12)3.67(6)0.479(9)33330
Baltimore6.14(1)7(15)0.441(10)3425-1
Toronto5(3)5.83(12)0.43(11)33330
Boston4.57(7)5.43(11)0.422(12)34340
Seattle3.33(14)4.5(10)0.366(13)24240
Oakland4.14(9)6(14)0.337(14)25250
Detroit3.14(15)5.86(13)0.242(15)25341

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