Monday, April 20, 2015

Monday pythagorean - 4/20/2015

When you score runs and stop the other team from scoring, you win games. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, this was a week in which they failed to score runs or stop the other team from scoring, at least on too many occasions...

The Week That Was:
  • 4/13 - @Boston 9 - Washington 4. Tom Brady throws out the first pitch as the Red Sox open at Fenway on a beautiful day in Boston. Mookie Betts makes a HR-saving catch, steals 2nd and 3rd on the same play with the defense shifted against Ortiz, scores the first run of the day, and then hit a three-run HR to give Boston a 4-0 lead, all before the 2nd inning ends.


  • 4/14 - @Boston 8 - Washington 7. The Red Sox take a 5-1 lead with Justin Masterson outpitching Steven Strasburg through four innings. Masterson falls apart in the fifth, and Washington goes up 7-5. The Nationals' defense then falls apart, for the second day in a row, as Boston scores three runs in the 8th on a combination of walks and errors and defensive mental breakdowns to take the 8-7 lead which Koji Uehara, in his first appearance of the season, would protect.


  • 4/15 - Washington 10 - @Boston 5. Wade Miley gives up two in the first, then six more in the third, which he didn't get through, as Boston spends the entire afternoon trying - unsuccessfully - to come from behind. The 2 1/3 inning stint is the 3rd shortest start of Miley's MLB career.


  • 4/17 - @Boston 3 - Baltimore 2. Boston catches a break when Ubaldo Jimenez is thrown out of the game after intentionally hitting Pablo Sandoval in the 4th, Ryan Hanigan's 2-run HR ties the game in the 7th, and they collect their first walk-off win of the season when Xander Bogaert's bloop hit to right drives in Mike Napoli in the 9th.


  • 4/18 - Baltimore 4 - @Boston 1. Clay Buchholz allows only two runs in six innings of work, but the Boston offense does nothing, and the Robbie Ross' gives up a two-run HR in the top of the 9th to put it away for the Orioles.


  • 4/19 - Baltimore 8 - @Boston 3. For the third consecutive game, the Red Sox fall behind the Orioles 2-0, but Hanley Ramirez gives Boston the lead with a 3-run HR in the bottom of the first. The lead is short-lived as Porcello gives up another run in the top of the 2nd, then 2 more in the 5th and 3 more in the 6th for his first bad outing of the year, as the Sox lose consecutives games for the first time and fail to win a series for the first time on the young season.




Thoughts and commentary...
  • While down 2-1 against the Orioles, the Red Sox have not yet lost the series, as they played the wraparound Patriots' Day game this morning, weather permitting.


  • From Monday: "[W]e've got an early leader in the Player Of The Week Competition. So far, Betts has a 3-run HR, 2 runs scored, 1 walk, 1 hit and 2 stolen bases. And a 2-run catch. And they're not out of the 2nd inning yet..." Unfortunately for him (and the team), what Mookie's done best so far is hit line drives to outfielders on the warning track.


  • If you're concerned about Hanley Ramirez' defense in left field, you can find lots of people to join you in that concern, and commiserate with you, and spend time beating up on Hanley and his defense and his attitude with you. But you'll find them elsewhere, not here. As far as I'm concerned, Hanley's here to hit, and to catch the easy fly balls in left, and to track down and pick up and throw to second on the rest of them. Anything that goes beyond that does not interest me in the slightest.


  • Nothing good comes of competing with Washington on April 15.


  • There's been a lot of grousing - much of it well deserved - about the starting pitching during the second trip through the rotation. But they've lost 2-3 to Baltimore because they haven't hit. The Orioles have outscored them 14-7. They've gotten good pitching in 2 of the 3 games. Buchholz gave up two runs in six innings on Saturday, and Boston lost 4-1.


  • There has also been concern expressed about the bullpen. Thus far the relief pitching has been very good, or better.


  • Bad weeks (offense): Mike Napoli (.217/.280/.304/.584, 2.01 runs created, 2.79 RC/25 outs), Xander Bogaerts (.222/.300/.222/.522, 1.31 runs created, 2.34 RC/25 outs), Shane Victorino (.182/.400/.182/.582, 1.05 runs created, 2.62 RC/25 outs), Daniel Nava (.100/.100/.100/.200, -.72 runs created, -1.65 RC/25 outs). Yeah, Sandy Leon and Ryan Hanigan and Allen Craig were bad, too, but I expect that and will rarely bother pointing it out.


  • That was a quick hook on Jimenez on Friday night. And probably benefitted the Red Sox. I didn't have much of a problem with it, though. I thought that he intentionally threw at Sandoval, and it was close to his head. It was the kind of pitch that should lead to ejections, but usually doesn't. The fact that it usually doesn't is what leads me to label it both quick and questionable. If umpires consistently tossed guys for intentional pitches at the shoulder and head, I'd be fine with it.


  • Red Sox Goat of the Week - Justin Masterson was aiming for this, giving up 7 runs in just 4 2/3 innings, but Wade Miley matched him in runs while getting only half the number of outs.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - On a per-at-bat basis, it was Brock Holt (.412/.412/.471/.882, 3.29 runs created, 8.22 RC/25 outs), followed by David Ortiz (.375/.474/.625/1.099, 3.72 runs created, 7.75 RC/25 outs) (when he wasn't getting tossed for whining about calls.) For best cumulative performance, and Player of the Week, it's Dustin Pedroia(.333/.409/.556/.965, 3.88 runs created, 6.92 RC/25 outs).


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The bullpen was, on the whole, effective, albeit with no standout performances. The starters, on the whole, were not, with a couple of performances that stood out. But not for good reasons. And there is no pitcher awarded this week.






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/19/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.67(1)2.92(1)0.771(1)931021
Kansas City5.67(1)3.33(3)0.725(2)93930
Oakland5.15(6)3.31(2)0.692(3)9467-3
Baltimore5.08(7)4.42(7)0.564(4)75750
Toronto5.38(3)4.69(9)0.563(5)7667-1
NY Yankees5.33(4)4.67(8)0.561(6)7566-1
Boston5.25(5)5.33(15)0.493(7)66751
LA Angels3.58(11)4.17(5)0.431(8)57570
Houston2.83(15)3.33(3)0.426(9)57661
Tampa Bay3.92(8)4.85(11)0.405(10)58671
Texas3.92(8)5.08(13)0.384(11)58580
Cleveland3.18(14)4.18(6)0.378(12)47470
Seattle3.92(10)5.17(14)0.376(13)57570
Chicago Sox3.45(12)4.73(10)0.36(14)47470
Minnesota3.25(13)4.92(12)0.319(15)48571


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit13527
Kansas City12240
Baltimore9567
Boston9567
NY Yankees8181


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit12636
Kansas City11844
Oakland10953
Baltimore9270
Toronto9072


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
NY Yankees5.5(1)3.83(7)0.659(1)42420
Baltimore5(2)3.5(3)0.658(2)42420
Oakland4(10)2.83(1)0.653(3)4233-1
LA Angels4.5(6)4(8)0.554(4)33330
Kansas City4.67(4)4.17(9)0.552(5)33330
Detroit3.5(12)3.17(2)0.546(6)33421
Chicago Sox4(10)3.8(6)0.523(7)3223-1
Minnesota4.33(9)4.33(10)0.5(8)33421
Toronto4.57(5)4.86(11)0.472(9)3425-1
Seattle4.5(6)5.17(13)0.437(10)3324-1
Boston4.83(3)5.83(15)0.415(11)24331
Texas4.5(6)5.5(14)0.409(12)24240
Houston3(14)3.67(5)0.409(13)24331
Cleveland2.6(15)3.6(4)0.355(14)23230
Tampa Bay3.29(13)5.14(12)0.306(15)25341

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