Thursday, July 09, 2009

Lies and the lying liars who write them

Politics is obviously a profession in which a certain amount of dishonesty is accepted, as people "spin" events or policies, trying to always "frame" their own candidates and policies in the best possible light. But flat-out lying is generally frowned upon, as indefensible statements call all of the other ones into doubt.

In Politico this morning, Democratic pollster Mark Penn writes about the problems facing the Obama administration, and how 10% unemployment could act as a "tripwire" to politically damage the administration. The piece is filled to the brim with selective history and self-serving declarations. But there's as blatant a lie as you'll ever see in a political piece, and really destroys whatever credibility Penn thinks he's bringing.
The Republicans are now on record in opposition to any stimulus.

Please. The Republicans obviously are on record as opposed to the stimulus passed in February. As well they should be - it was a non-stimulating disaster, an economic destruction measure of biblical proportions. But the Republicans have supported any number of true "stimulus" policies, and would do so again if given the opportunity. To suggest that Republicans would not support a payroll tax reduction, or extension of the Bush tax cuts is to suggest nonsense. It's not a "political fib," it's not "spinning," it's a blatant lie.


(H/T: Chris Lynch)

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Politics involved? No, just stimulus...

Arnold Kling, back in February:
it is a reparations bill, not a stimulus bill. People who pay income taxes tend to vote Republican. People who live off taxes tend to vote Democratic. To the Democrats, the Bush tax cuts were a heinous evil, comparable to Germany's violation of Belgian neutrality in World War I. Now, they are demanding reparations, with hundreds of billions of dollars to be paid into teachers unions and other members of the coalition that won the election.

There were lots of reason to believe that it was a bill which would benefit Democrat constituencies, rather than stimulating the economy. And they'd even admit it, albeit anonymously ("this is a once-in-a-25-year opportunity to [implement] a lot of our agenda," a top House Democratic aide says").

So there really shouldn't be much surprise at this:
Counties that supported Obama last year have reaped twice as much money per person from the administration's $787 billion economic stimulus package as those that voted for his Republican rival, Sen. John McCain, a USA TODAY analysis of government disclosure and accounting records shows. That money includes aid to repair military bases, improve public housing and help students pay for college. The reports show the 872 counties that supported Obama received about $69 per person, on average. The 2,234 that supported McCain received about $34.

Anger? Sure. Outrage? Absolutely appropriate. Surprise? Nope...

Maybe it's just an accident. After all, the White House is quick to assure us that "there's no politics at work when it comes to spending for the recovery." That's believable, right? There's a tremendous pile of money being distributed by politicians, but "there's no politics at work."

(Once again, the contempt in which this administration holds the populace is one its least attractive characteristics. Do they really believe that people are stupid enough to buy that? "Beware of politicians" is obviously a truism, but when those politicians claim not to be involved in politics, that's even more disingenuous than usual...)

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What could possibly go wrong?

From Tigerhawk comes the scariest statistic yet about an administration filled with them:
Because its efforts have been broken into separate initiatives with different justifications, few people other than news junkies have noticed how extraordinary Barack Obama's agenda is. Perhaps a number will help: 35%. That is the aggregate percentage of United States GDP produced by the three industries that the Democrats hope to restructure from the top down: Health care (17% of GDP), energy (9.8% of GDP), and financial services (8% of GDP). Think about that. Without even considering the transformational impact of proposed anti-business laws of general application, such as the Orwellian "employee free choice act," the Obama administration wants to redesign 35% of gross domestic product from the center. And he proposes to do it all in a rush this summer, lest the decline in his popularity and that of the Congressional Democrats erodes his power to do so.

Well, central control of the economy has worked well everywhere else, right?

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Idle thought

On Hell's sports radio station, the morning show will be hosted1 by Michael Felger and John Meterperel2.



1 - I'm sure that they'd take this as a compliment if they saw it. It isn't.
2 - If you don't know who these people are, count your blessings.

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Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Whose house is it anyway?

I was not happy with the House of Representatives voting for the Waxman-Markey energy tax bill. Well, it turns out that the bill is much, much worse than I was even aware:
The program requires that states label their buildings so that we can all know how efficient every building (that includes residential and non-residential buildings) is and it requires that the information be made public. To that end, the bill suggests a number of circumstances under which the states could inspect a building, including:

(A) preparation, and public disclosure of the label through filing with tax and title records at the time of--

(i) a building audit conducted with support from Federal or State funds;

(ii) a building energy-efficiency retrofit conducted in response to such an audit;

(iii) a final inspection of major renovations or additions made to a building in accordance with a building permit issued by a local government entity;

(iv) a sale that is recorded for title and tax purposes consistent with paragraph (8);

(v) a new lien recorded on the property for more than a set percentage of the assessed value of the property, if that lien reflects public financial assistance for energy-related improvements to that building; or

(vi) a change in ownership or operation of the building for purposes of utility billing; or

(B) other appropriate means.

Pay close attention to (iii), (iv), and (vi) because those hit you right where you live. What that's saying is the state will be empowered to inspect your home if you want to 1) renovate your house in any way that requires a building permit, 2) sell your house, or 3) change the name of the person responsible for any utility bill.

You think that the housing market's bad now? If this were to pass, well, you ain't seen nothing yet...

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"Maybe they'll die before the next election..."

I don't know anything about LA Times blogger Andrew Malcolm, but I can't come up with any reading of this that isn't very unpleasant.
In other numerical revelations, just 4% of Americans say that Wall Street or credit card companies are honest or trustworthy. A majority of young people still approve of Obama's job performance, but a majority of seniors over 64 now don't (54%). Maybe they'll die before the next election.

Ha. Ha.

The absolute best case construction that you can put on it is that he's being flippant without recognizing how unpleasant it sounds. Maybe this was just an accident, but I'm long past the point of giving anyone in the mainstream press much in the way of benefit of the doubt...

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US on the wrong side again...

For all those who didn't realize before the election that Barack Obama was a fan of leftist dictators, we follow the spectacles of the US being wrong on Venezuela and Iran with the US being wrong on Honduras.:
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with ousted Honduran President Miguel Zelaya in Washington Tuesday, signaling unequivocal US support for Mr. Zelaya’s return to office.

Let's re-write that slightly, to make the situation clear:
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with [legally and democratically] ousted Honduran President Miguel Zelaya [and aspirant leftist dictator] in Washington Tuesday, signaling unequivocal US support for [unrepentant leftist] Mr. Zelaya’s [illegal and unconstitutional] return to office [against the Honduran Constitution and the wishes of the Honduran people].


Matthew Hoy has it right...
The insanity of this policy by the Obama administration cannot be understated. It used to be the GOP that was (oftentimes rightly) criticized for propping up tyrants and despots because they were “our” tyrants and despots. At the height of the Cold War, a valid defense for that realpolitik position could be made. But where is the greater evil on the horizon that we are willing to sacrifice the Honduran people for? It is no longer the Soviet Union and worldwide communism.

In fact, the main evil we face in much of the world today is the thugocratic regimes like Iran and Venezuela, wacko nut-jobs like North Korea, and communist China. Yet, in this situation, we’ve actually allied ourselves with Venezuela’s Chavez!

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Monday, July 06, 2009

Monday Pythagorean, 7/6/2009

When the bad weeks are .500, that's not a horrible thing. But make no mistake about it - this was a bad week for the Boston Red Sox.

  • The dramatic comeback on Wednesday, scoring four in the 9th to tie it and winning in 11, doesn't make up for the hideous meltdown on Tuesday. The weather obviously played a part, cutting Smoltz' performance down to four innings, but there's no excuse for a bullpen as good as this one to give up 10 runs in two innings.


  • The Yankees and Red Sox each scored 6 runs per game this week, and each allowed 5 runs per game. The Red Sox went 3-3 - the Yankees went 5-1. That's the result of ... luck. Luck plays a bigger part in one run games than any other, and the Red Sox went 1-3 this week in games determined by one run, while the Yankees went 1-0.


  • The Red Sox now have the best Pythagorean winning percentage in the American League, as the Rays struggled mightily this week. They're now seven games back in the loss column, six back of the Yankees in the Wild Card race, and reaching a point where they need to get closer quickly in order to have a legitimate possibility of post-season baseball.


  • On Monday morning, May 18, I said "I continue to disbelieve in the Toronto Blue Jays. At some point, they're going to have to play Boston and New York and Tampa, and I don't think that they represent a serious threat to win the division or the Wild Card." Since that point, they've compiled a 16-27 record, and lost 11 games in the standings vs. the Red Sox, 11 1/2 vs. the Yankees and 8 1/2 vs. the Rays. They've a better record than the Royals and a worse record than every other AL team. The crystal ball was well focused that day, but it was a pretty easy prediction to make.


  • The Sox averaged 6 runs per game this week, yet it felt as if the offense were struggling mightily. And, for the most part, it was. They scored 8 on Sunday (in a win) and 10 on Tuesday (in a loss) and didn't do much the rest of the week.


  • One of the reasons that a team can struggle offensively, or at least feel as if it's struggling offensively, is that its middle of the order difference makers struggle. Kevin Youkilis (.214/.241/.536/.777) had a bad week. And it was spectacular compared to the week that Jason Bay (.080/.207/.120/.327) had. Bay actually struck out in more than half of his at-bats, with 13 Ks in 25 at-bats.


  • I do understand its appeal, but the "Tim Wakefield makes the All Star Team" story would be a much better story if he deserved to make the All Star team. I've said it already but he didn't. At ESPN.com, Keith Law says, correctly, that
    the selection of Tim Wakefield is disgraceful. Sure, it's a feel-good story, but there's the minor fact of him posting a 4.30 ERA, good for just 29th in the AL, with nothing in his peripherals to suggest that he's pitched better than his ERA would indicate...Wakefield is here because of the idiotic fascination that people have with win totals...The inclusion of Wakefield...comes at the expense of his far superior teammate, Jon Lester. Lester has been extraordinarily unlucky this year...and still has a lower ERA than Wakefield, and he has more than double Wakefield's strikeout total in only four more innings.

    By definition, when someone who doesn't deserve to go gets a spot, it takes it away from someone who does deserve to go. I understand people being happy for Wakefield, but he's been given something unearned, something that should rightfully have gone to someone else, and I can't celebrate that.


  • Certainly, he wasn't the first mistaken All Star, or the last, or the only one this year.


  • I'm convinced that the "Wakefield needs a win to get to the All Star game" story also cost the Red Sox a game this week, as Francona let it affect his pitching decisions, and sent Wakefield out to give up another run in a game that they ended up losing in extra innings.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week: Going with co-players of the week, Jacoby Ellsbury (.375/.423/.667/1.090) who also stole four bases and J.D. Drew (.318/.423/.682/1.105) who also drew four walks. Both outstanding.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: Jon Lester, who, in two starts, threw 13 2/3 innings and allowed four runs, three of which were unearned. He struck on 17 while walking 3. Lester was hurt by poor defense behind him earlier in the year, poor defense resulting in earned run, not unearned, and his ERA was inflated. In his last 9 starts, dating back to mid-May, he has struck out 69 batters in 59 innings, with an ERA of 2.29.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/6/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.27(3)4.33(2)0.589(1)483349321

Tampa Bay5.41(2)4.51(5)0.583(2)48354439-4

New York5.57(1)4.81(11)0.566(3)463548332

Texas4.99(6)4.56(8)0.541(4)433745352

Toronto4.95(7)4.53(6)0.541(5)45384241-3

Minnesota4.78(8)4.39(3)0.54(6)45384340-2

Los Angeles5.21(4)4.89(12)0.529(7)423845353

Detroit4.75(9)4.56(7)0.519(8)423944372

Chicago4.45(11)4.41(4)0.504(9)414142401

Seattle3.95(13)4.17(1)0.475(10)384342394

Cleveland5.14(5)5.49(14)0.47(11)39443350-6

Oakland4.19(12)4.75(10)0.443(12)35453446-1

Baltimore4.67(10)5.45(13)0.43(13)354736461

Kansas City3.94(14)4.72(9)0.418(14)344735461




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9864

New York9666

Texas9171

Los Angeles9171

Detroit8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9765

New York9468

Tampa Bay9072

Texas8973

Los Angeles8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago5.57(5)3.14(1)0.74(1)52520

Texas6.67(1)4(4)0.718(2)42511

Minnesota4.67(9)3.67(3)0.609(3)42420

Los Angeles6.57(2)5.43(11)0.587(4)43430

Boston6(3)5(8)0.583(5)33330

New York6(3)5(8)0.583(5)33512

Cleveland5.17(6)5.5(12)0.471(7)3324-1

Seattle4.83(8)5.33(10)0.455(8)33330

Oakland4.17(10)4.83(7)0.433(9)33330

Toronto3.67(12)4.67(6)0.391(10)2415-1

Kansas City2.71(13)3.57(2)0.377(11)34340

Baltimore4.86(7)7(14)0.339(12)25250

Detroit3.83(11)5.67(13)0.328(13)24240

Tampa Bay2.5(14)4.5(5)0.254(14)24240

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Mixed emotions

This causes very mixed emotions.
The Celtics pulled out all the stops when their campaign to sign free agent forward Rasheed Wallace started last week. And the tactics paid off as Wallace committed to sign with the Celtics, a league source said yesterday.

There's is not a single NBA player for whom I'm less inclined to root than Rasheed Wallace. I don't like him - I don't like his appearance, I don't like what I perceive as his personality, or his past behaviors. I don't want to root for Rasheed Wallace.

But.

I think he certainly makes the Celtics a better team. And I like to root for the Celtics.

Mixed emotions...

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Saturday, July 04, 2009

Happy Independence Day!

233 years ago...



IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

The 56 signatures on the Declaration appear in the positions indicated:

Column 1
Georgia:
Button Gwinnett
Lyman Hall
George Walton


Column 2
North Carolina:

William Hooper
Joseph Hewes
John Penn

South Carolina:
Edward Rutledge
Thomas Heyward, Jr.
Thomas Lynch, Jr.
Arthur Middleton


Column 3
Massachusetts:

John Hancock

Maryland:
Samuel Chase
William Paca
Thomas Stone
Charles Carroll of Carrollton

Virginia:
George Wythe
Richard Henry Lee
Thomas Jefferson
Benjamin Harrison
Thomas Nelson, Jr.
Francis Lightfoot Lee
Carter Braxton


Column 4
Pennsylvania:

Robert Morris
Benjamin Rush
Benjamin Franklin
John Morton
George Clymer
James Smith
George Taylor
James Wilson
George Ross

Delaware:
Caesar Rodney
George Read
Thomas McKean


Column 5
New York:

William Floyd
Philip Livingston
Francis Lewis
Lewis Morris

New Jersey:
Richard Stockton
John Witherspoon
Francis Hopkinson
John Hart
Abraham Clark


Column 6
New Hampshire:

Josiah Bartlett
William Whipple

Massachusetts:
Samuel Adams
John Adams
Robert Treat Paine
Elbridge Gerry

Rhode Island:
Stephen Hopkins
William Ellery

Connecticut:
Roger Sherman
Samuel Huntington
William Williams
Oliver Wolcott

New Hampshire:
Matthew Thornton

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Government monopoly? No problem!

Yet another preview of government run health care.
[Washington] State workers are scrambling to fix a distribution problem that has crimped the flow of alcohol to customers across the state, as liquor stores and restaurants are gearing up for one of the busiest weekends of the year.

"For us, the timing is really brutal," said Anthony Anton, president and CEO of the Washington Restaurant Association, who said some restaurants have been unable to get key ingredients for their most popular cocktails. "For a small-margin industry like ours, where every sale counts, that's an issue."

Dozens of "temporarily out of stock" signs dot the shelves of some state liquor stores, and store managers say they're not sure when their complete product line will again be available.

State officials blame the difficulties on a glitch in a new software system that controls the movement of 18,000 cases of liquor a day through the state's distribution center on East Marginal Way South in Seattle.

...the pinch is compounded by the fact that a state alcohol surcharge takes effect Aug. 1, which will force bar owners to increase prices.

The surcharge, which will add between $1 and $3 to the price of most bottles of booze, was enacted to raise about $80 million to replace money legislators took from a liquor-reserve fund to balance the state budget.

I don't drink, so even if I lived in Washington, this story would have no impact on me. But that's not the point. The point is, if a company operated this way, it would go out of business. The state provides services inefficiently, with no competition to improve behavior and no incentive for workers to satisfy customers. I spent an hour at the Registry of Motor Vehicles a week ago pondering this. A business with a waiting line like that...well, it wouldn't have a waiting line like that. It would put more workers on, or it would open another branch, or it would have the workers moving more quickly, taking fewer break, doing less wandering and chatting. Or it would go out of business. But the state is a monopoly, a monopoly that requires its "customers" patronize it.

Well, if that's true for getting a driver's license, why would anyone expect it to be any better when it comes to getting an x-ray or an appendectomy or a radiation treatment? Government provided health care is the destruction of the health care system, as has been shown wherever it's been tried. How can you think that the federal government will provide health care any more efficiently than the Washington government provides alcohol?

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Friday, July 03, 2009

Giving one away...

I'm a big fan of Terry Francona, as I've made clear before. I think that he's done a very good job. I also think that he's hurt the Red Sox tonight. I understand what (I think) he's doing, and it might be that, in the long run, it helps the team as it increases the players' loyalty to him, and responsiveness to him. But I think it was for a bad reason, and it hurt them tonight.

Tim Wakefield had thrown 95 pitches through seven innings and allowed four runs. They played in the afternoon two days ago and didn't play yesterday, so the bullpen is completely rested. But they were trailing, 4-3. Wakefield went back out to start the 8th, not pitching a great game, with 6 better pitchers rested and available. And he went back out there, I'm convinced, for one reason, and one reason only - Terry Francona wants to get him a win, in the misguided belief that that would make him a good choice for the AL All Star team. Which he isn't.

As I said, I don't think it's a good reason, though it may not be, in the long term, a bad thing for the team. But it hurt them tonight, whether they come back and win it or not...

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Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Red Sox - June Audit

The season started with the expectation that the three best teams in the American League were all in the East, and the three would be battling for two playoff spots. The month of June saw expectations met on the field.

Standings:

June arrived with the New York Yankees in first place, Boston 1/2 a game back, and the Rays 5 1/2 out. It ends with Boston up by 2 1/2 over New York and 4 over the Rays. So Tampa was 1 game better than Boston in June, and 4 games better than the Yankees.



AL East - End of May vs. end of June
Tm W L W-L% GB RS RA pythW-L%

NYY 29210.58-- 2832630.533

BOS 29220.5690.52672360.556

TOR 29240.5471.52702410.552

TBR 25280.4725.52942600.556

BAL 23280.4516.52502880.436

WLW-L% GBRS RA pythW-L%

BOS4730.610--405332.590

NYY4432.5792.5423365.567

TBR4435.5574442349.606

TOR4138.5197391356.543

BAL3542.45512360412.439



For the season, the Red Sox have the best record in the American League and the second-best Pythagorean record, behind the Rays. Tampa has significantly underperformed its Pythagorean.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/1/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Tampa Bay5.64(1)4.51(5)0.601(1)46314235-4

Boston5.21(3)4.28(2)0.589(2)443146292

New York5.53(2)4.8(10)0.565(3)423343321

Toronto5.05(6)4.52(6)0.551(4)42354136-1

Detroit4.83(8)4.47(4)0.535(5)403542332

Minnesota4.79(9)4.44(3)0.535(6)41363938-2

Texas4.85(7)4.61(8)0.524(7)393540341

Los Angeles5.08(5)4.84(12)0.523(8)383541323

Chicago4.35(11)4.53(7)0.481(9)363937381

Seattle3.88(14)4.08(1)0.477(10)363939363

Cleveland5.14(4)5.49(14)0.47(11)36413146-5

Oakland4.19(12)4.74(9)0.443(12)33413143-2

Baltimore4.65(10)5.31(13)0.44(13)334234411

Kansas City4.05(13)4.82(11)0.421(14)314332421


For the month of June, as for the season as a whole, Tampa put up the best Pythagorean, followed by the Red Sox and Yankees. Unlike the rest of the season, their actual record pretty much matched their Pythagorean record.



AL Pythagorean - June
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Tampa Bay5.69(1)3.42(2)0.717(1)1971970

Boston5.31(4)3.69(4)0.66(2)1791881

New York5.38(3)3.92(5)0.641(3)1791511-2

Los Angeles5.69(1)4.62(10)0.595(4)15111792

Minnesota4.15(9)3.44(3)0.584(5)16111512-1

Seattle3.96(12)3.36(1)0.575(6)141115101

Chicago4.68(6)4.32(7)0.536(7)151315130

Toronto4.65(7)4.42(8)0.523(8)14121214-2

Oakland4.11(10)3.93(6)0.52(9)15131315-2

Baltimore4.23(8)4.77(11)0.445(10)121412140

Cleveland4.78(5)5.63(14)0.425(11)1116918-2

Texas3.81(13)4.5(9)0.424(12)111511150

Detroit4(11)4.79(12)0.419(13)121615133

Kansas City3.69(14)5(13)0.365(14)91710161


  • I know that Toronto still looks like they are in the race. I still don't buy it.


  • All three of the AL East competitors have played more games on the road than at home.


    AL East - Home v. Road
    Games PlayedGames Remaining

    EASTHomeAwayHomeAway

    Boston35424639

    NY Yankees36404541

    Tampa Bay39404241



  • The most frustrating loss for the Red Sox, before last night, came on June 18, as they trailed Florida 2-1 after 5 1/2 innings when the rains came in a game that was never resumed. June 30 was pain of an entirely different sort, though it was related to the rains once more. John Smoltz was pitching very well when rain stopped the game after 4 1/2. When play resumed an hour and a half later, the bullpens came in, and for one night, the dominant Boston 'pen ... wasn't, losing a game that they led 10-1 after 6 1/2 innings.


Offense:

This table contains some standard offensive numbers and a couple of more advanced metrics. The last two columns are Bill James' Runs Created, and Runs Created per 25 outs, an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would score with nine hitters performing the way that hitter performed. (The fact that it can end up negative is, indeed, an indicators that these are estimates.)

The Red Sox scored 138 runs in June over 26 games, an average of 5.31 runs per game. That makes June the best offensive month of the season thus far for Boston. Boston has had the 3rd best offense in the AL for the season, and it was 4th best in the AL in June.



Red Sox Offense - June, 2009
PlayerGamesGSABRuns Hits 2B3BHRRBIBBHBPKSBCSSHSFGDPBAOBASPctOPSRCOutsRC/25

David Ortiz 2422751324407181201801011.320.409.6531.06218.5548.6

Jacoby Ellsbury 2322801125123119210120012.313.391.488.87917.2587.4

J.D. Drew 2120721421423121712020001.292.433.528.96117.1528.2

Kevin Youkilis 2625901722614141932631003.244.393.467.86016.9725.9

Jason Bay 25251001223314201012701022.230.301.400.70111.7823.6

Dustin Pedroia 252510816247001490861001.222.282.287.5699.5862.8

Jason Varitek 2020641215701101211300012.234.359.391.7509.4524.5

Nick Green 252173121740311421800014.233.288.411.6987.5613.1

Rocco Baldelli 15730710002550400002.333.429.533.9626.1226.9

Mark Kotsay 17842313101220601000.310.341.405.7465.5304.6

Mike Lowell 191768514102680601012.206.286.309.5955.3582.3

Julio Lugo 1162679200330810110.346.400.423.8235.0196.5

George Kottaras 962356400320500010.261.308.435.7423.3184.6

Jeff Bailey 11433010010000000.750.8001.2502.0502.7167.4

Josh Beckett 52511001100300000.200.200.8001.0001.046.0

Tim Wakefield 51201000000100000.500.500.5001.000.4111.1

Hideki Okajima 130100000000000000.000.000.000.000-.11-2.5

Ramon Ramirez 100100000000100000.000.000.000.000-.11-2.7

Daisuke Matsuzaka 41200000000000000.000.000.000.000-.22-2.5

John Smoltz 21200000000200000.000.000.000.000-.22-2.7

Jon Lester 52300000000200200.000.000.000.000-.25-1.2

Brad Penny 52500000000000000.000.000.000.000-.55-2.5


Total31023487613822844731130113101782463920.260.348.433.781135.06864.9


  • The big individual story for the month of June is clearly the resurrection of David Ortiz. There's no way that he can put together a productive season, but if what he did in June represents his actual performance level now, then he's going to have just a bad season, and he'll be a strong asset from now 'til the end of the year.


  • Jacoby Ellsbury has thrived down in the bottom third of the order. Which is just fine and dandy with me. I keep hear people talking about how the Red Sox best lineup has Ellsbury at the top, and I don't agree. I think that he's more valuable in the 7th spot. Speed is relatively more valuable when the following hitters are relatively less likely move runners. Likewise, On-Base Percentage is relatively more valuable when the following hitters are relatively more likely to move runners. (By move runners, I don't mean "bunt" - I mean draw walks and get hits and get extra-base hits.) A fast runner can score with fewer subsequent hits - at the bottom of the order, there are likely to be fewer subsequent hits. The object of the lineup construction isn't to maximize Ellsbury's runs scored, but the team's runs scored, and I think their better off with the higher OBP guys (Pedroia, Drew) in the first couple of spots, and Ellsbury down low.


  • Pedroia had a rotten month (.222/.282/.287/.569). So did Jason Bay (.230/.301/.400/.701). And Nick Green (.233/.288/.411/.698). And Mike Lowell (.206/.286/.309/.595).


  • Youkilis finally had a down month (.244/.393/.467/.860). His plate discipline is so good, however, that he's able to keep his OBP at a very good level while only hitting .244.


  • And people are still talking about what a disappointment J.D. Drew (.292/.433/.528/.961) is, and what an awful contract he had. Do I think that the Sox would love to have more HR from Drew? Sure. But since a 3-month "adjustment" period (with a hospitalized child), he's been an extremely productive hitter in Boston, and I bet that they're happy to have him. They should be.



Pitching:

The Red Sox allowed 96 runs in June for an average of 3.69 runs per game. This was 4th in the AL for the month. For the season, they're allowing 4.31 runs per game, which is second in the AL behind Seattle.

For June, 88 of the 96 runs were earned, for a staff ERA of 3.44. The starters compiled a 3.27 ERA - the bullpen's was 3.82.



Red Sox Pitching - June, 2009
PlayerGamesGSW L SvShoIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIPK/BB

Josh Beckett 55410135.672510614351.51.818.75

Jon Lester 55310034237726401.85.856.67

Brad Penny 55120028.33281110310213.181.342.10

Tim Wakefield 55400031.3334121215123.451.242.40

John Smoltz 220100910660276.001.333.50

Daisuke Matsuzaka 44120018.6731161648197.712.092.38

Starters262613701157151625711351343.271.183.83

Manny Delcarmen 100100099440554.001.561.00

Jonathan Papelbon 1301060121111169.751.421.50

Takashi Saito 11021009.676441693.721.241.50

Daniel Bard 10000101098607105.401.601.43

Hideki Okajima 130100012127723125.251.254.00

Justin Masterson 90000012.33127614154.381.303.75

Ramon Ramirez 100000087333373.381.252.33

Bullpen760517073663431834673.821.371.97


Total1022618871230217968819692013.441.242.91


  • Matsuzaka struggled and went to the DL. Smoltz came off of his rehab assignment, made his first appearance in the Majors in a year, and struggled mightily in his first inning of work. Other than that, the starting pitching was outstanding.
    • Josh Beckett allowed exactly 0 earned runs in 4 of his 5 starts on the month.

    • Jon Lester allowed 3 runs once, 2 runs once, 1 run twice and 0 runs once.

    • Those two combined to strike out 75 batters while walking 10.

    • Brad Penny seems to have found himself, coming back from injury, making 5 starts with a 3.18 ERA.

    • Wakefield recovered from his May struggles, to post a 3.45 ERA in 5 starts.


  • The bullpen ERA jumped by over a full run in the last 2 innings of the month. Through 71 innings in June, the bullpen allowed 21 earned runs for a 2.66 ERA. In the last two innings, they allowed 10, raising the bullpen ERA for the month to 3.82.


  • Papelbon is not pitching the way he has in the past. He's allowing more baserunners, more walks and fewer strikeouts. But he's still getting the job done the vast majority of the time. One can speculate that, "wow, he really knows how to bear down and get those last outs." Or one can say, "hmm, maybe that job really doesn't need to be as specialized as it has become - most pitchers pitch most innings without allowing two runs."

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Monday, June 29, 2009

Early (pre-judicial) restraint from the CJ

I said that I'd have nothing more to say about Michael Jackson, and that's basically true. Let me just say, though, that this story does nothing but increase my affection for Chief Justice Roberts...
Mr. Jackson had visited the White House on May 16, 1984, and appeared with Mr. Reagan at an event on efforts against drunken driving...A correspondence aide at the White House, James K. Coyne, drafted a somewhat goofy letter that he proposed having Mr. Reagan sign....

Mr. Roberts expressed acid disapproval in a June 22, 1984, memorandum to Mr. Fielding:

I recognize that I am something of a vox clamans in terris in this area, but enough is enough. The Office of Presidential Correspondence is not yet an adjunct of Michael Jackson’s PR firm. “Billboard” can quite adequately cover the event by reproducing the award citation and/or reporting the President’s remarks. (As you know, there is very little to report about Mr. Jackson’s remarks.)

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Monday Pythagorean, 6/29/2009

Another 4-2 week, as the roll continues. Sort of.

  • 2-of-3 from Washington, even on the road, is a disappointment. 2-of-3 from the Braves on the road probably shouldn't be, but given that they won the first two, was anyway. It feels different to lose the first and win the next two than to have a chance as the sweep and fail to get it. Which they did this week. Twice.


  • With the AL East playing the NL East, 4-2 wasn't good enough to maintain their lead, as they lost a game in the standings to both the Yankees and Rays. Each of those teams lost their first game, and finished the week with a five game winning streak.


  • We all knew that the AL East was loaded. Well, Pythagoras thinks that the four best teams in the AL are all in the East, and I don't necessarily disagree. The Blue Jays may well finish the season as one of the four best teams in the league while at the same time finishing fourth in their division.


  • The way that the Mets lay down for the Yankees this year was pathetic. Yes, they did win one of the six games, but they had the first one won also and lost it on a dropped pop-up. After taking the second game, they lost the next four by a combined score of 33-3. I hate the Mets, of course, and have no objections to them humiliating themselves, but would rather have had the Yankees lose at least one more of those games.


  • Speaking of ugly losses, Atlanta avoided one yesterday. Bobby Cox's head may have exploded if Ellsbury had gone deep in the ninth yesterday. The game should have ended on Ortiz' ground ball to second, but Braves' second baseman Kelly Johnson inexplicably ran at Youkilis instead of just tossing the ball to second to start the double play. When Youkilis stopped, he had to throw to first to get Ortiz, then Youkilis avoided the rundown and the game continued. Varitek drove in Youkilis with a single, and Ellsbury could have put the Sox ahead with a home run. I'm guessing that Cox "spoke" to Johnson after the game...


  • The Red Sox pitching for the week was, with one (Smoltz) exception, excellent. The offense, on the other hand...wasn't.


  • As to the Smoltz start, let me just say this about that: I saw a lot to be encouraged about. Yes, the first inning was a disaster. It was his first Major League inning in a year, and he clearly struggled - badly - with his command. Once that was out of the way, however, he looked pretty good to dominant over the next four innings. If the latter was more representative of what we can expect to see than the former, then it was a great signing.


  • I wrote about this yesterday, but let me mention it here again - as good as story as it might be, there is no legitimate case to be made for Tim Wakefield as an All Star.


  • You can all look forward to the June audit on Wednesday, as the month finishes Tuesday, and there are some players who have struggled - badly - this month. Struggled the way that Ortiz struggled in April and May. For today, let's just say that the offensive performance this week, as a team, was unimpressive. At best. Yes, they scored a bunch of runs against the Washington bullpen on Tuesday. After that, however, it was 6-3-4-1-1, for an average of 3 runs per game. That's weak. That they went 3-2 in those five is a tribute to the pitching.


  • How good was the pitching? In three games in Atlanta, the starters went 19 innings, and allowed a total of 2 runs. The bullpen allowed 1 run, a solo HR which Papelbon gave up with a four-run lead. This pitching excellence is, of course, the source of the aforementioned disappointment with only taking 2 of 3 against the Braves. The Red Sox went in to Atlanta, allowed only 3 runs in 3 games, and still couldn't manage the sweep.


  • I know that a lot of people have developed significant man-crushes on Nick Green, and God knows, he has given them far, far more than they had any right to expect when the season began. (Everyone get that? This is not a Green-bash - he's given them more or less consistent, nearly average defense at SS with some offensive production. He's not been a gaping hole, and he's done more than they could possibly have expected.) That said, all of the objective evidence continues to suggest that he's a below average defensive shortstop, and that he cannot maintain his offensive performance. His Major League OPS right now is exactly what his career Minor League OPS is. Some would suggest that that means he's playing to his level - I'd suggest that it means he's over his head. His career Major League OPS+ is 76, and that includes the 92 he's put up in Boston. It was 72 coming into this season. Rather than rooting for him to keep the job, Sox fans should be hoping that Jed Lowrie returns before Green completely turns in to a pumpkin.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week: Not a lot of great performances. Mark Kotsay had some production in few at-bats, Varitek had a decent week, Youkilis took some walks to put together a decent OBP. The prize goes, again, to Mr. Papi, David Ortiz, who hit .333/.389/.733/1.122 with 2 HR on the week. He's got two games left to finish off what has been an outstanding month of June.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: Beckett was awesome again, with 7 scoreless innings on Friday. Wakefield threw 6 scoreless on Saturday. The bullpen was excellent. But the award goes to Brad Penny, who threw 2 good starts, allowing five runs in 11 2/3 innings over two starts. They won one and lost one, but he pitched well enough for them to have won both.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/29/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Tampa Bay5.64(1)4.51(5)0.601(1)46314235-4

Boston5.21(3)4.28(2)0.589(2)443146292

New York5.53(2)4.8(10)0.565(3)423343321

Toronto5.05(6)4.52(6)0.551(4)42354136-1

Detroit4.83(8)4.47(4)0.535(5)403542332

Minnesota4.79(9)4.44(3)0.535(6)41363938-2

Texas4.85(7)4.61(8)0.524(7)393540341

Los Angeles5.08(5)4.84(12)0.523(8)383541323

Chicago4.35(11)4.53(7)0.481(9)363937381

Seattle3.88(14)4.08(1)0.477(10)363939363

Cleveland5.14(4)5.49(14)0.47(11)36413146-5

Oakland4.19(12)4.74(9)0.443(12)33413143-2

Baltimore4.65(10)5.31(13)0.44(13)334234411

Kansas City4.05(13)4.82(11)0.421(14)314332421




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9963

New York9369

Detroit9171

Los Angeles9171

Tampa Bay8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9765

Tampa Bay9369

New York9270

Detroit8973

Toronto8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York6.17(2)3(1)0.789(1)51510

Tampa Bay5.5(4)3.67(4)0.677(2)42511

Minnesota4.67(8)3.17(2)0.67(3)42420

Los Angeles7(1)4.83(9)0.663(4)42511

Boston4.33(10)3.17(2)0.64(5)42420

Chicago6(3)4.83(9)0.598(6)42420

Seattle5.17(5)4.33(6)0.58(7)33421

Toronto5(7)5(12)0.5(8)33330

Texas4.67(8)4.67(7)0.5(8)33330

Baltimore5.17(5)5.33(13)0.485(10)3324-1

Detroit4.17(12)4.67(7)0.448(11)33421

Kansas City3(14)3.67(4)0.409(12)24331

Cleveland4.33(10)5.67(14)0.38(13)24240

Oakland3.5(13)4.83(9)0.356(14)2415-1

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Michael Jackson

"Beat It" was far and away his best song as a solo artist. Both it and the video for it were pretty good.

de mortuis nil nisi bonum...

This will be my last comment on Michael Jackson.

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