Monday, June 29, 2015

Monday pythagorean - 6/29/2015

A team with a big lead can afford to alternate wins and losses for a while. A team with a big deficit is ill-positioned to play that way. Like the [LWLWLW] Red Sox...

The Week That Was:

  • 6/23 - Baltimore 6 - @Boston 4 - In what will be his last Major League start for a while, Joe Kelly allows four runs in the second inning, and the bullpen allows a fifth when he's pulled with two outs in the fourth. Boston scores single runs in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 9th, but can't put up a "crooked number," and the attempted comeback falls short.


  • 6/24 - @Boston 5 - Baltimore 1 - Another excellent start from Clay Buchholz, who strikes out seven while walking one, and allows only one run over seven innings. All of the runs score in the sixth inning, as Baltimore breaks a scoreless tie with one in the top half, and the Red Sox respond with six in the bottom half.


  • 6/25 - Baltimore 8 - @Boston 6 - For the second time in the three game series, Boston's starter fails to finish the fourth. Eduardo Rogriguez is perfect and unhittable for the first 3 1/3 innings, and then allows seven consecutive hits to the next seven batters, including two doubles and a HR. He finishes his day having allowed six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings pitched. Boston fights back, scoring three themselves in the bottom of the fourth and a couple more in the seventh, but cannot climb all the way out of the early hole.


  • 6/26 - Boston 4 - @Tampa 3 - For the first time since May 16 in Seattle, a stretch covering six starts, Rick Porcello starts a game for the Red Sox and doesn't end up with a loss. He gives them a mediocre (albeit "quality) start, allowing 3 runs in six innings, and the bullpen holds the Rays scoreless for four as Brock Holt drives in Mookie Betts with the winning run in the top of the 10th.


  • 6/27 - @Tampa 4 - Boston 1 - Another strong start - 6 1/3, 2 runs - from Wade Miley, who has been consistently good since the middle of April, is wasted as the offense is limited to two hits and one run, and the bullpen gives up two more to prevent the tying run from ever getting to the plarte.


  • 6/28 - Boston 5 - @Tampa 3 - Justin Masterson returns to the Major League rotation with five strong innings, allowing only one uneared run, and the offense hits three HR and scores five runs against Chris Archer as the Red Sox win the series in Tampa.








Thoughts and commentary...

  • With Sunday's win in Tampa, Boston won a series against one of its AL East rivals for the first time since taking 2-of-3 from Toronto at the end of April. They had lost six consecutive series in the division, once to the Yankees and Rays, and twice each to the Blue Jays and Orioles.


  • In the last two weeks, Boston's only had one streak of any kind, and it only lasted for two games. They won on the 18th in Atlanta and on the 19th in Kansas City. Every other win has been followed by a loss; every loss has been followed by a win.


  • They've had several weeks in which they failed to score as many runs as they "created," with their actual run-scoring falling short, sometimes well short, of what their component offense suggested they should have scored. This week, the opposite occured, as they did not hit well, at all, but scored more (25) than they created (21).


  • On April 11, the Red Sox and Yankees played into the seventeenth inning on a Saturday afternoon in the Bronx, and Clay Buchholz, who normally has four days rest between starts, was warming up in the bullpen, in preparation for pitching the 18th, late in the game. The following night he started, and was shelled, allowing 10 runs, 9 earned, in just 3 1/3 innings, raising his ERA to 7.84, and reinforcing all of the negative Buchholz stereotypes. But in his other 14 starts this year, excluding the one following his bullpen-relief preparatory session, his ERA is 2.61 in over 6 1/3 innings per start. In other words, he has been a very good starter this year.


  • It's safe to say that Mookie Betts (.167/.259/.250/.509, 1.71 runs created, 2.14 RC/25 outs) won't be the AL Player of the Week this week.


  • He still had a better week than the recently recalled, again, Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.214/.200/.214/.414, .48 runs created, .99 RC/25 outs).


  • A nice return to the Majors for Justin Masterson (1 unearned run over 5 innings).


  • A difficult Major League debut for Jonathan Aro, who allowed 3 runs in 1 1/3 innings over two appearances.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Only one candidate worth discussing this week, but it only takes one, and Alejandro De Aza (.353/.389/.941/1.330, 4.67 runs created, 8.98 RC/25 outs) is he.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Clay Buchholz continues to pitch very well, allowing only one run over seven innings in his start against the Orioles this week.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/29/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto5.45(1)4.31(9)0.606(1)47304136-6
Kansas City4.39(6)3.58(2)0.592(2)432944281
Baltimore4.64(3)3.92(4)0.577(3)43324134-2
Houston4.44(5)3.81(3)0.569(4)443444340
Oakland4.46(4)3.95(6)0.556(5)43353444-9
NY Yankees4.78(2)4.46(13)0.531(6)403641351
Tampa Bay3.68(13)3.47(1)0.527(7)413642351
Minnesota4.17(9)4.12(8)0.506(8)383740352
Detroit4.36(7)4.4(11)0.496(9)373839362
Texas4.29(8)4.33(10)0.496(10)383838380
LA Angels3.89(12)3.95(5)0.494(11)383839371
Cleveland3.93(11)4.46(12)0.443(12)334133410
Boston4.08(10)4.66(15)0.439(13)344334430
Seattle3.36(15)4.03(7)0.417(14)324434422
Chicago Sox3.47(14)4.57(14)0.377(15)284632424
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Kansas City9963
Houston9171
Baltimore8973
Tampa Bay8874
NY Yankees8775
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Kansas City9765
Toronto9369
Houston9270
Baltimore9171
NY Yankees8775
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Baltimore5.17(4)3(3)0.73(1)42511
Toronto4.5(7)2.83(1)0.7(2)42420
Kansas City4.17(8)2.83(1)0.669(3)42511
Houston4.57(6)3.14(4)0.665(4)5234-2
Minnesota5.5(2)4.33(10)0.607(5)4233-1
Oakland4.83(5)4(7)0.586(6)4233-1
Detroit5.67(1)5.33(11)0.528(7)33421
Boston4.17(8)4.17(9)0.5(8)33330
NY Yankees5.29(3)5.57(13)0.476(9)34340
Tampa Bay3.17(11)3.67(6)0.433(10)3324-1
Seattle2.83(14)3.33(5)0.426(11)3324-1
LA Angels2.83(14)4(7)0.347(12)24422
Chicago Sox4.17(8)6.33(15)0.317(13)24240
Cleveland3.17(11)5.5(12)0.267(14)2415-1
Texas3.17(11)6.17(14)0.228(15)15150

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