Monday, May 18, 2015

Monday pythagorean - 5/18/2015

So, since they've apparently fixed the pitching that everyone was so upset about, things must be just hunky-dory right now. Right?

The Week That Was:

  • 5/11 - Boston 5 - @Oakland 4 (11) - Rick Porcello pitches fairly well, but three times the A's take a one-run lead, and three times the Red Sox come back, twice to tie, and then to take the lead. Boston's one-run lead in the 7th also does not hold up, but Pablo Sandoval leads off the top o f the 11th with a HR and Matt Barnes completes the game, pitching the last two innings and collecting his first Major League win.


  • 5/12 - @Oakland 9 - Boston 2 - Justin Masterson gives up 3 in the first, 1 in the second and 2 more in the third before leaving the game and heading to the disabled list with "fatigue."


  • 5/13 - Boston 2 - @Oakland 0 - Wade Miley outpitches one of the ALs leading Cy Young candidates, Sonny Gray, and needed to, as the Red Sox only 2 runs for the second consecutive day en route to winning two of three in Oakland.


  • 5/14 - Boston 2 - @Seattle 1 - For the third consecutive day, the Red Sox score 2 runs. For the second consecutive day, they allow fewer, and despite the excellent performance by Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes garners his second win in four days, and the second win of his career, as Boston opens the series in Seattle with a win.


  • 5/15 - @Seattle 2 - Boston 1 - The Red Sox offensive struggles continue, as they are held under three runs for the fourth time in five games on the week. They suffer a walk-off loss in the 9th, as Nelson Cruz is pitched to by Junichi Tazawa, and Cruz wins the battle.


  • 5/16 - Boston 4 - @Seattle 2 - With Porcello pitching very well, the Red Sox get solo HR from Pablo Sandoval and David Ortiz, and add a victory over Felix Hernandez to their west coast results.


  • 5/17 - @Seattle 5 - Boston 0 - Steven Wright fills in for the DLed Justin Masterson and is not ineffective, allowing 3 over five innings, but the Boston bats do absolutely nothing, and they leave Seattle with a 2-2 split.






Thoughts and commentary...

  • The Good News - the Red Sox league ranking in runs allowed per game has almost caught up with their league ranking in runs scored per game! The Bad News - it's more because of the dismal performance of the latter than the scintillating performance of the former.


  • The pitching has been much improved over the past couple of weeks, but the offense has completely disappeared. They averaged 5.14 runs/game in 22 games in April. In 16 games in May, thus far, they're averaging just 2.375 runs/game. Just stunning.


  • While "fatigue" was the official diagnosis as Justin Masterson headed to the DL, one suspects it more on the part of John Farrell's and Ben Cherington's eyes than Masterson's arm and shoulder.


  • You all know that I'm not a huge fan of bashing managers for tactical decisions. And I am not a big fan of intentional walks. But giving Nelson Cruz a pitch to beat you with, with one on and two out in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game is not a smart thing to do.


  • How bad was the offense?
    • They scored 16 runs in 7 games, 2.286 runs/game.


    • They hit .212/.280/.303/.583 (18.60 runs created, 2.41 RC/25 outs) as a team.


    • They scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 of their 7 games.


  • How bad has May been?
    • Mookie Betts is leading the team in Runs Created. He's hitting .210/.250/.452/.702 (7.64 runs created, 3.74 RC/25 outs) for the month...


    • You don't expect much offense behind the plate, but you need more than this: Catchers (.167/.196/.241/.437, 1.54 runs created, .80 RC/25 outs)


    • The "power positions", where you're paying big money to big-time offensive producers have not been quite that bad, but, position-adjusted, they may have been worse: Corner infielders, corner outfielders, DH (.202/.288/.322/.610, 22.36 runs created, 2.50 RC/25 outs)


  • I'm concerned that I've seen some of this before...
    David Ortiz (39) (.236/.322/.402/.723, 15.40 runs created, 3.67 RC/25 outs)
    Mike Napoli (33) (.162/.269/.282/.551, 8.06 runs created, 1.97 RC/25 outs)
    Jim Rice (36) ['89] (.245/.272/.374/.646, 14.07 runs created, 3.11 RC/25 outs)

    Too early to pull the plug? Yes. Too early to start getting very worried? Not at all...


  • One suspects that young Mr. Barnes may have made his last trip on the Pawtucket shuttle for a while. It seems quite likely that he's one of the 10 best Major League pitchers in the organization right now.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - In his return from the DL, Shane Victorino (.353/.421/.588/1.009, 4.23 runs created, 9.61 RC/25 outs) had a very good week. Had he not, this award would have been vacant for the week.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Wade Miley went 6 1/3 scoreless in a head-to-head matchup with Sonny Gray, albeit walking the tightrope the entire way. Matt Barnes picked up his first two Major League wins with four effective innings of relief over three appearances. Koji Uehara pitched 3 2/3 hitless innings while saving 3 of the Sox 4 wins on the week. But Clay Buchholz was dominant on Friday night, giving up only 1 solo HR and two other hits, while striking out 11 and walking none. That he didn't win had nothing to do with him, and everything to do with the offense.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/18/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Kansas City5.05(2)3.61(3)0.65(1)25132414-1
Houston4.45(7)3.84(4)0.567(2)221625133
Detroit4.47(5)3.95(5)0.557(3)211723152
Tampa Bay4(11)3.56(2)0.553(4)22172118-1
NY Yankees4.38(9)4(6)0.542(5)211822171
Toronto5.13(1)4.87(14)0.523(6)20191722-3
LA Angels3.62(15)3.49(1)0.517(7)191819180
Minnesota4.5(4)4.45(9)0.505(8)191921172
Baltimore4.46(6)4.43(8)0.503(9)18171619-2
Oakland4.56(3)4.69(11)0.487(10)19201326-6
Seattle3.78(14)4.11(7)0.462(11)172017200
Cleveland4.42(8)4.97(15)0.446(12)16201422-2
Texas4.16(10)4.68(10)0.446(13)17211622-1
Boston3.97(12)4.84(13)0.411(14)162218202
Chicago Sox3.88(13)4.74(12)0.41(15)142017173
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Houston10755
Kansas City10260
Detroit9864
NY Yankees9171
Minnesota9072
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Kansas City10557
Houston9567
Detroit9270
Tampa Bay8973
NY Yankees8973
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
LA Angels3.2(12)1.6(1)0.78(1)41410
Detroit5.33(3)2.83(3)0.761(2)5142-1
Seattle3.83(10)2.5(2)0.686(3)4233-1
Kansas City5.14(4)4(6)0.613(4)43430
Chicago Sox5.5(1)4.33(8)0.607(5)42511
Tampa Bay5(5)4(6)0.601(6)43430
Houston4.83(6)4.33(8)0.55(7)33512
Texas5.43(2)5.14(12)0.525(8)4334-1
Cleveland4.17(7)4.33(8)0.482(9)33330
Oakland4.17(7)4.5(11)0.465(10)3315-2
Baltimore3(14)3.67(5)0.409(11)24331
Toronto4(9)5.29(13)0.375(12)3416-2
Boston2.29(15)3.29(4)0.34(13)25432
NY Yankees3.14(13)5.29(13)0.279(14)25250
Minnesota3.33(11)5.67(15)0.275(15)24331

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