tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-116701452024-03-15T21:09:31.190-04:00LyfLinesThoughts on the Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics, Politics, Movies, and whatever else happens to cross my mind.Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.comBlogger3308125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-37266891846815735032015-08-10T07:15:00.002-04:002015-08-10T07:15:44.942-04:00Monday Pythagorean - 8/10/2015
Kind of sad that a 3-3 week where they're only outscored by one is a good week, but for this team, that's where we are...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>8/4 - @New York 13 - Boston 3 - Highly-touted Boston left-hander Henry Owens makes his Major League debut and is effective, taking a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the 9th. But the first two runners reach, and the bullpen allows them to score, plus one more, and then 9 more in the 7th, so he takes the loss.</li><br><br>
<li>8/5 - Boston 2 - @New York 1 - For the second night in a row, a top pitching prospect makes his debut, pitches well through five innings, but takes the loss anyway. This time that's the fate for the Yankees' Luis Severino, who gets matched up against Boston knuckle-baller Steven Wright who is dominant, allowing only four hits and one run through eight innings.</li><br><br>
<li>8/6 - @New York 2 - Boston 1 - Eduardo Rodriguez pitches well, but the Boston bats are silent. Jacoby Ellsbury's 7th-inning HR breaks a 1-1 tie and provides the eventual winning run.</li><br><br>
<li>8/7 - Boston 7 - @Detroit 2 - Joe Kelly manages to limit his bad inning to two runs, and the Red Sox score early and often en route to a 7-2 win in Detroit. In the process, the Sox lose Koji Uehara on the last play of the game, as he takes a ball off of his pitching forearm. Preliminary indications are that it's not serious.</li><br><br>
<li>8/8 - @Detroit 7 - Boston 6 - Boston scores first, Detroit scores last, as a Victor Martinez HR in the bottom of the 7th provides the last lead-change in a game full of them. Wade Miley pitched well through four innings and OK through five, but not particularly well through six, and the bullpen struggles continue.</li><br><br>
<li>8/9 - Boston 7 - @Detroit 2 - Jackie Bradley, Jr., has a dominant day, combining a couple of spectacular catches in the outfiield with driving in five runs with a HR and a bases-loaded triple, providing all of the offense necessary for Henry Owens to pick up his first Major League win.</li><br><br>
</ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>Congratulations to Henry Owens, for picking up his first Major League win in his second of two pretty good starts this, his Major League debut week.</li><br><br>
<li>Mike Napoli did some great things in a Boston uniform. But not this year or last. In the long-run, the flag from 2013 will always be there, and so will my affection for him as a Boston fan.</li><br><br>
<li>David Ortiz hit two monster home runs this week. The one in New York on Wednesday night was measured at 441 feet, the one in Detroit on Friday night was even further.</li><br><br>
<li>Ortiz' vesting option for next year kicked in, so we will see his 14th season in a Boston uniform next year. He's 11 HR away from 500, which he'll almost certainly get to either in September or early in the 2016 season. And 432 of those have come in a Boston uniform, so he's 18 away from 450 in a Boston uniform, and only 20 behind Yaz' 452. So there's a strong likelihood that a year from now, we'll have seen his 500th, his 450th in a Boston uniform, and Ortiz move into second place on the Red Sox All-Time home run list.</li><br><br>
<li>Can Jackie Bradley hit Major League pitching? The question remains to be answer, but he sure did yesterday... </li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - <b>David Ortiz</b> (.304/.407/.739/1.147, 6.40 runs created, 10.00 RC/25 outs) went deep three times (very deep), and, in the process, locked in his contract for next year.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - <b>Steven Wright</b> pitched eight outstanding innings in New York, giving up only four hits and one run.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/10/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.28<TD>(1)<TD>4.14<TD>(7)<TD>0.61<TD>(1)<TD>69<TD>44<TD>61<TD>52<TD>-8<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.42<TD>(5)<TD>3.73<TD>(1)<TD>0.577<TD>(2)<TD>65<TD>48<TD>61<TD>52<TD>-4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.33<TD>(7)<TD>3.75<TD>(2)<TD>0.565<TD>(3)<TD>62<TD>48<TD>66<TD>44<TD>4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.81<TD>(2)<TD>4.25<TD>(9)<TD>0.556<TD>(4)<TD>61<TD>49<TD>61<TD>49<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.4<TD>(6)<TD>3.92<TD>(6)<TD>0.553<TD>(5)<TD>61<TD>49<TD>56<TD>54<TD>-5<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.18<TD>(10)<TD>3.78<TD>(3)<TD>0.546<TD>(6)<TD>60<TD>50<TD>59<TD>51<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.1<TD>(11)<TD>3.79<TD>(4)<TD>0.536<TD>(7)<TD>61<TD>52<TD>51<TD>62<TD>-10<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.71<TD>(15)<TD>3.79<TD>(5)<TD>0.49<TD>(8)<TD>55<TD>57<TD>56<TD>56<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.02<TD>(12)<TD>4.21<TD>(8)<TD>0.479<TD>(9)<TD>53<TD>57<TD>51<TD>59<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.48<TD>(3)<TD>4.77<TD>(13)<TD>0.471<TD>(10)<TD>52<TD>58<TD>55<TD>55<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.19<TD>(9)<TD>4.5<TD>(12)<TD>0.467<TD>(11)<TD>52<TD>59<TD>55<TD>56<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.43<TD>(4)<TD>4.82<TD>(15)<TD>0.462<TD>(12)<TD>51<TD>60<TD>54<TD>57<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.74<TD>(14)<TD>4.26<TD>(10)<TD>0.441<TD>(13)<TD>49<TD>63<TD>52<TD>60<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.21<TD>(8)<TD>4.8<TD>(14)<TD>0.44<TD>(14)<TD>49<TD>63<TD>50<TD>62<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.74<TD>(13)<TD>4.41<TD>(11)<TD>0.425<TD>(15)<TD>46<TD>63<TD>51<TD>58<TD>5<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>97<TD>65<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.67<TD>(12)<TD>3.67<TD>(3)<TD>0.5<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>3.71<TD>(11)<TD>4.86<TD>(11)<TD>0.38<TD>(12)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>1<TD>6<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>3.43<TD>(14)<TD>3.86<TD>(6)<TD>0.446<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>4<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.14<TD>(5)<TD>1.86<TD>(1)<TD>0.866<TD>(1)<TD>6<TD>1<TD>7<TD>0<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>7.17<TD>(1)<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>0.744<TD>(2)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>5.67<TD>(3)<TD>5.67<TD>(13)<TD>0.5<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.83<TD>(6)<TD>3.83<TD>(4)<TD>0.604<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>6<TD>(2)<TD>4.33<TD>(9)<TD>0.645<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>5.5<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>0.642<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.33<TD>(8)<TD>4.5<TD>(10)<TD>0.483<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.5<TD>(7)<TD>3.83<TD>(4)<TD>0.573<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>3.67<TD>(12)<TD>5.33<TD>(12)<TD>0.335<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>3.86<TD>(10)<TD>8.57<TD>(15)<TD>0.188<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>6<TD>1<TD>6<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>4.17<TD>(9)<TD>6<TD>(14)<TD>0.339<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>2.83<TD>(15)<TD>2.67<TD>(2)<TD>0.528<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
</TABLE>Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com67tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-51098049988455469132015-08-03T07:45:00.000-04:002015-08-03T07:45:24.933-04:00Monday pythagorean - 8/3/2015
If the opposition is scoring in the first inning of every game (ok, there was one in which they didn't), it's hard to expect much better than 3-4...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>7/27 - Chicago 10 - @Boston 8 - Joe Kelly's struggles continue, as he allows four runs to Chicago in the top of the first. Boston, in doing what has been very unusual during the 2015 season, battles back, taking one run leads in the bottoms of the 4th and 5th innings, but neither lasts as Craig Breslow and Robbie Ross perform nearly as ineffectively as Kelly, and the White Sox win 10-8.</li><br><br>
<li>7/28 - Chicago 9 - @Boston 4 - The night after Joe Kelly allowed four runs to the White Sox in the top of the first, Wade Miley allows five. Before the Red Sox sent a single batter to the plate, the White Sox had already scored more runs than the Red Sox would manage as they fell 9-4.</li><br><br>
<li>7/29 - Chicago 9 - @Boston 2 - Rick Porcello allows as many runs scored as batters he retires, leaving after 2+ innings with a 6-0 deficit. Boston's initial offensive attempts in the game end with a runner thrown out, by a wide margin, with none out, as third base coach Brian Butterfield adds his contribution to the offensive ineptitude.</li><br><br>
<li>7/30 - @Boston 8 - Chicago 2 - For the fourth consecutive game, the White Sox take a lead in the top of the first. This time, however, Stephen Wright, and the bullpen, manage to hold them off the board the rest of the way, while the Red Sox are putting up 8 of their own for the second time in the series. Tonight, it's enough.</li><br><br>
<li>7/31 - @Boston 7 - Tampa 5 - Eduardo Rodriguez struggles through five, but never allows a big inning, holding the Rays to one run in each of the first three innings and nothing in the next two. Boston's 'pen outpitches the Rays', and Mike Napoli's 2 run HR in the bottom of the 7th after Tampa took its only lead in the top, results in a Boston win.</li><br><br>
<li>8/1 - @Boston 11 - Tampa 7 - For the first, and only, game this week, Boston bats without the opposition having scored in the top of the first. Joe Kelly is dominant for three innings as Tampa gets a Porcellish start from Matt Moore and Boston builds an early 6-0 lead. Kelly nearly gives it all away, but the offense continues producing, and the game ends with the Red Sox evening their record for the week at 3-3.</li><br><br>
<li>8/2 - @Tampa 4 - Boston 3 - With a chance to end the week with a win and a winning record, the Red Sox get a strong performance from Wade Milay and take a 3-2 lead into the 8th inning. But Junichi Tazawa gives up two, and the Sox don't score again, falling 4-3 in the game and on the week.</li><br><br>
</ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>The Red Sox retired Pedro's number twice - first, in English, on Tuesday night and then, in Spanish, on Wednesday night. I know NESN had Tuesday's, but I was in the park on Wednesday. Very cool to see Pedro and El Tiante on the mound together...</li><br><br>
<li>Quite a day for Travis Shaw on Saturday. He's not a real prospect at this point, but it's always nice to see someone who has toiled for years in the minors have a moment of glory in The Show. Two HR, four hits, five runs scored - that's a better day than many players who will have better careers will ever have.</li><br><br>
<li>Sorry, but I just haven't got much more to say. It's been a trainwreck from the start. They've not only been not good, they've been not interesting.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Hard to believe, with just two games of action, but <b>Travis R Shaw</b> (.750/.778/1.625/2.403, 6.10 runs created, 76.22 RC/25 outs), in those two games, produced more than anyone else on the team this week. He had one walk to go with his 6-8 with a double and 2 HR.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - Stephen Wright was effective on Friday, but I am going to dock him some for allowing runs in the first inning and putting the team in a whole. So I'm going to go with <b>Craig Breslow</b>, who threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings over three appearances, including getting out of a first-and-third, no out situation that Porcello handed him on Wednesday night.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/3/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.29<TD>(1)<TD>4.29<TD>(10)<TD>0.595<TD>(1)<TD>63<TD>43<TD>54<TD>52<TD>-9<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.46<TD>(4)<TD>3.65<TD>(1)<TD>0.591<TD>(2)<TD>63<TD>43<TD>60<TD>46<TD>-3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.32<TD>(7)<TD>3.75<TD>(2)<TD>0.564<TD>(3)<TD>59<TD>45<TD>62<TD>42<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.92<TD>(2)<TD>4.35<TD>(12)<TD>0.557<TD>(4)<TD>58<TD>46<TD>59<TD>45<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.38<TD>(6)<TD>3.92<TD>(6)<TD>0.55<TD>(5)<TD>57<TD>47<TD>53<TD>51<TD>-4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.21<TD>(8)<TD>3.79<TD>(5)<TD>0.548<TD>(6)<TD>57<TD>47<TD>55<TD>49<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.14<TD>(11)<TD>3.78<TD>(3)<TD>0.541<TD>(7)<TD>57<TD>49<TD>47<TD>59<TD>-10<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.21<TD>(8)<TD>4.23<TD>(9)<TD>0.498<TD>(8)<TD>52<TD>52<TD>54<TD>50<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.61<TD>(15)<TD>3.78<TD>(3)<TD>0.479<TD>(9)<TD>51<TD>55<TD>52<TD>54<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.48<TD>(3)<TD>4.79<TD>(13)<TD>0.469<TD>(10)<TD>49<TD>56<TD>51<TD>54<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.39<TD>(5)<TD>4.8<TD>(14)<TD>0.46<TD>(11)<TD>48<TD>56<TD>51<TD>53<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.84<TD>(12)<TD>4.22<TD>(8)<TD>0.456<TD>(12)<TD>47<TD>57<TD>48<TD>56<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.21<TD>(10)<TD>4.82<TD>(15)<TD>0.438<TD>(13)<TD>46<TD>60<TD>47<TD>59<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.63<TD>(14)<TD>4.18<TD>(7)<TD>0.436<TD>(14)<TD>46<TD>60<TD>48<TD>58<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.72<TD>(13)<TD>4.32<TD>(11)<TD>0.432<TD>(15)<TD>44<TD>59<TD>50<TD>53<TD>6<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>97<TD>65<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>86<TD>76<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>84<TD>78<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>6<TD>(4)<TD>2.83<TD>(1)<TD>0.798<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>8.86<TD>(1)<TD>5.14<TD>(8)<TD>0.73<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.5<TD>(5)<TD>3.67<TD>(4)<TD>0.677<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.86<TD>(7)<TD>4<TD>(5)<TD>0.588<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>5<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>5.33<TD>(6)<TD>4.5<TD>(6)<TD>0.577<TD>(5)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.43<TD>(13)<TD>3<TD>(3)<TD>0.561<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>3<TD>(14)<TD>2.83<TD>(1)<TD>0.526<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>6.71<TD>(2)<TD>7<TD>(15)<TD>0.481<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>4<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>6.14<TD>(3)<TD>6.57<TD>(13)<TD>0.469<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.29<TD>(9)<TD>5.57<TD>(10)<TD>0.382<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.71<TD>(12)<TD>4.86<TD>(7)<TD>0.38<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.14<TD>(11)<TD>5.71<TD>(11)<TD>0.357<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>3<TD>4<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.17<TD>(10)<TD>5.83<TD>(12)<TD>0.351<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.86<TD>(7)<TD>6.86<TD>(14)<TD>0.347<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>4<TD>3<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>2.5<TD>(15)<TD>5.33<TD>(9)<TD>0.2<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>0<TD>6<TD>-1<TD>
</TABLE>Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-64320948715055890252015-07-27T08:04:00.002-04:002015-07-27T08:04:31.101-04:00Monday pythagorean - 7/27/2015
2-6 is never going to get it done, unless you're in the last week with a magic number of one. The Red Sox aren't...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>7/20 - @LAAnaheim 11 - Boston 1 - In the first game of a day-night doubleheader, making up for the game which was rained out on Sunday night, Eduardo Rodriguez gets hammered, allowing 7 runs in the second inning, and leaving after only retiring five batters. The Boston offense finally scores it's first post-All Star break run in the 4th inning of their third game in Anaheim, but it obviously is irrelevant to the final outcome.</li><br><br>
<li>7/20 - @LAANaheim 7 - Boston 3 - Steven Wright allows home runs to Albert Pujols and Mike Trout as the Angels take a 5-0 lead into the 6th inning. Boston does eventually score a couple of runs, but are never in the game, being swept in the double-headed by a combined score of 18-4.</li><br><br>
<li>7/21 - @Houston 8 - Boston 3 - Brian Johnson makes his Major League debut, and it's somewhat less than a roaring success, as he allows four runs while only pitching 4 1/3 innings. The Red Sox, for the first time on the road trip and the first time in over a week, actually held a lead 3-1 into the bottom of the 5th, but the Astros tie the game as an attempt to throw out a runner stealing second with runners on 1st and 3rd ricochets off of the sliding runners forearm into no-man's land in left field, and two runs score. They score two more off of Johnson and reliever Justin Masterson, and the Red Sox fail to do anything offensive en route to their 6th straight loss.</li><br><br>
<li>7/22 - @Houston 4 - Boston 2 - Joe Kelly's return to the Major Leagues, and to the Red Sox starting rotation, is better than some of his outings, but not great, as he allows four runs in 5 1/3 innings pitched. He keeps the team in the game, but the offensive struggles continue, and Boston falls again.</li><br><br>
<li>7/23 - @Houston 5 - Boston 4 - The losing streak runs to 8 games as the road trip finishes the way it began - with the bullpen surrendering a walk-off HR in the bottom of the 9th inning of a tie game. This time it's Jose Altuve homering off of Craig Breslow, as Boston's longest winless road trip in 64 years comes to a painful end.</li><br><br>
<li>7/24 - @Boston 2 - Detroit 1 - In a battle of former rotation-mates, Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander each allow one run in the third inning and nothing else. Porcello's seven inning, one run performance is his best in months and one of his best in a Red Sox uniform. The game remains tied into the 11th and Xander Bogaerts drives in Mookie Betts to end the game and the 8-game losing streak.</li><br><br>
<li>7/25 - Detroit 5 - Boston 1 - Boston's offensive ineptitude continues, and Steven Wright continues to demonstrate the knuckle-ballers traditional susceptibility to home runs and passed balls as the Tigers score in the first and Boston trails the entire way.</li><br><br>
<li>7/26 - @Boston 11 - Detroit 1 - The week ends similar to the way in which it strarted - with Eduardo Rodriguez starting a game which ends 11-1. This time, it's the Red Sox offense doing the damage, led by two home runs from David Ortiz, as Boston takes two of three from the Tigers.</li><br><br>
</ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>For those of us harboring hopes of a second-half surge, the post-All Star break road trip brought them to a quick and painful end. Two weeks ago, they entered the break just 6 1/2 games back - this morning it's 12. And over. </li><br><br>
<li>The only questions remaining for 2015 are these - can they avoid their second consecutive, and third in four years, last place finish? And what can they do in 2015 to make 2016 less likely to result in another disaster?</li><br><br>
<li>The anatomy of a disaster: The Red Sox 0-7 road trip was the longest winless road trip for the team since the 1951 Red Sox lost its last 8 road games.
<blockquote>Angels/Astros 39
Boston 13
Boston offense - (.204/.249/.296/.545, 14.89 runs created, 1.97 RC/25 outs)
Opposition - (.245/.333/.523/.856, 37.18 runs created, 5.44 RC/25 outs)</blockquote>
</li><br><br>
<li>A big part of the problem on the trip was the top of the order. Top 3 (Betts, Holt, Pedroia) (.111/.152/.175/.326, -.40 runs created, -.17 RC/25 outs)</li><br><br>
<li>I am of the opinion that there is no hitter in MLB who has been more negatively effected by the stretching of the strike zone than Mike Napoli. Napoli's skill set is look at a lot of pitches, take the ones that he can't hit, and hammer the ones that he can. It seems that the umpires, by widening the zone, have made it possible for pitchers to throw a lot more pitches that are simultaneously a) not hittable by Napoli and b) strikes. Is he finally adjusting?</li><br><br>
<li>I very rarely have much interest in what any athlete has to say in an interview. There are exceptions, and Pedro Martinez was one. Always insightful, always interesting, and he was again yesterday.</li><br><br>
<li>ESPN put up a graphic last night, comparing Pedro to Koufax over their best four-year peaks. If you don't know anything about context, it looked like Koufax was better. He wasn't. Taking into account ballpark and league offensive context, Pedro was much better. Koufax' ERA+ from 1963-1966 was 172. Pedro's, from 1997-2000, was 219. Pedro was the greatest.</li><br><br>
<li>There are a few athletes that I feel privileged to have been able to watch. Tom Brady. Larry Bird. And Pedro Martinez. </li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Mike Napoli (.400/.444/.680/1.124, 6.36 runs created, 9.94 RC/25 outs) is finally showing signs that he might still be able to hit. Xander Bogaerts (.455/.441/.485/.926, 6.73 runs created, 8.86 RC/25 outs) continues to be effective both at the plate and in the field. But the award goes to <b>David Ortiz</b> (.357/.400/.857/1.257, 8.57 runs created, 11.90 RC/25 outs), whose two home runs on Sunday night brought him up to 485 for his career, just 15 away from 500.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - <b>Rick Porcello</b> threw seven innings of one-run ball against his former team, and former teammate Justin Verlander, leading the Red Sox to a 2-1 win that broke their 8 game losing streak.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/27/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.28<TD>(1)<TD>4.33<TD>(12)<TD>0.59<TD>(1)<TD>59<TD>41<TD>50<TD>50<TD>-9<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.33<TD>(7)<TD>3.61<TD>(1)<TD>0.583<TD>(2)<TD>57<TD>40<TD>59<TD>38<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.37<TD>(4)<TD>3.7<TD>(3)<TD>0.576<TD>(3)<TD>58<TD>42<TD>55<TD>45<TD>-3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.32<TD>(8)<TD>3.69<TD>(2)<TD>0.571<TD>(4)<TD>56<TD>42<TD>55<TD>43<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.34<TD>(6)<TD>3.92<TD>(6)<TD>0.547<TD>(5)<TD>53<TD>44<TD>48<TD>49<TD>-5<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.21<TD>(10)<TD>3.84<TD>(5)<TD>0.542<TD>(6)<TD>54<TD>46<TD>44<TD>56<TD>-10<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.64<TD>(2)<TD>4.29<TD>(10)<TD>0.536<TD>(7)<TD>52<TD>45<TD>55<TD>42<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.21<TD>(9)<TD>4.13<TD>(9)<TD>0.509<TD>(8)<TD>50<TD>48<TD>52<TD>46<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.49<TD>(3)<TD>4.73<TD>(15)<TD>0.476<TD>(9)<TD>47<TD>51<TD>48<TD>50<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.51<TD>(14)<TD>3.74<TD>(4)<TD>0.471<TD>(10)<TD>47<TD>53<TD>49<TD>51<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.36<TD>(5)<TD>4.65<TD>(13)<TD>0.471<TD>(11)<TD>46<TD>51<TD>47<TD>50<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.87<TD>(12)<TD>4.31<TD>(11)<TD>0.45<TD>(12)<TD>44<TD>53<TD>45<TD>52<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.63<TD>(13)<TD>4.13<TD>(8)<TD>0.441<TD>(13)<TD>44<TD>55<TD>46<TD>53<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.07<TD>(11)<TD>4.7<TD>(14)<TD>0.435<TD>(14)<TD>43<TD>56<TD>44<TD>55<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.5<TD>(15)<TD>4.13<TD>(7)<TD>0.425<TD>(15)<TD>41<TD>55<TD>46<TD>50<TD>5<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>99<TD>63<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>86<TD>76<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>97<TD>65<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>5.5<TD>(4)<TD>2.67<TD>(1)<TD>0.79<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>4<TD>2<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>6.38<TD>(2)<TD>3.38<TD>(4)<TD>0.762<TD>(2)<TD>6<TD>2<TD>5<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>3.83<TD>(8)<TD>2.67<TD>(1)<TD>0.66<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5.33<TD>(5)<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>0.611<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>0.601<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>7.33<TD>(1)<TD>6.17<TD>(14)<TD>0.579<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>3.57<TD>(10)<TD>3.14<TD>(3)<TD>0.558<TD>(7)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>5.57<TD>(3)<TD>5.71<TD>(13)<TD>0.488<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>4<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.57<TD>(7)<TD>5.14<TD>(11)<TD>0.446<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>3.17<TD>(12)<TD>3.67<TD>(6)<TD>0.433<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>3.67<TD>(9)<TD>4.67<TD>(9)<TD>0.391<TD>(11)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>2.33<TD>(13)<TD>3.5<TD>(5)<TD>0.323<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>3.38<TD>(11)<TD>5.25<TD>(12)<TD>0.308<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>6<TD>2<TD>6<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>2.33<TD>(13)<TD>5<TD>(10)<TD>0.199<TD>(14)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>2.17<TD>(15)<TD>6.5<TD>(15)<TD>0.118<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-65345260804811829692015-07-20T07:07:00.003-04:002015-07-20T07:07:48.344-04:00Monday pythagorean - 7/20/2015
Outscored 4-0 over two games doesn't provide much fodder for commentary. After you say that the pitching was pretty good but they didn't hit, what's left to say? Not much...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li><li>7/17 - @LAAnaheim 1 - Boston 0 - Wade Miley makes his second consecutive start, thanks to the four-day All Star break, and is outstanding, taking a no-hitter into the sixth and allowing only 2 hits and no runs in seven plus innings of work. But it all goes for naught as the Red Sox do nothing offensively, and Mike Trout breaks a personal 0-5 against Koji Uehara with a 2-out 9th inning HR for a 1-0 Angels win.</li><br><br>
<li>7/18 - @LAANaheim 3 - Boston 0 - Rick Porcello allows three runs (two earned) over five, and Justin Masterson pitches three strong shutout innings out of the bullpen, but, for the second consecutive night, the Red Sox are held scoreless by Angel pitching.</li><br><br>
</ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>Due to the All Star break, they played two games. Due to the All Star break and awful performances, they scored 0 runs. The pitchers were fine, in general. Miley was excellent in particular.</li><br><br>
<li>There's really not much more to say.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - They scored 0 runs on the week. 'Nuff said...</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - I almost left this unawarded, too, but <b>Wade Miley</b> was so good on Friday that I'm going to give it out. In seven plus innings of work, he walked 2 and allowed 1 hit. He was perfect through five innings and had a no-hitter through six. That he, and the team, didn't get a win has nothing whatsoever to do with his efforts.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/20/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.3<TD>(1)<TD>4.35<TD>(12)<TD>0.589<TD>(1)<TD>55<TD>39<TD>47<TD>47<TD>-8<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.39<TD>(6)<TD>3.64<TD>(1)<TD>0.584<TD>(2)<TD>53<TD>37<TD>55<TD>35<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.4<TD>(5)<TD>3.77<TD>(4)<TD>0.571<TD>(3)<TD>54<TD>40<TD>51<TD>43<TD>-3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.33<TD>(7)<TD>3.77<TD>(4)<TD>0.563<TD>(4)<TD>53<TD>41<TD>43<TD>51<TD>-10<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.42<TD>(4)<TD>3.93<TD>(6)<TD>0.553<TD>(5)<TD>50<TD>41<TD>46<TD>45<TD>-4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.13<TD>(10)<TD>3.72<TD>(2)<TD>0.548<TD>(6)<TD>49<TD>41<TD>50<TD>40<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.59<TD>(2)<TD>4.3<TD>(11)<TD>0.531<TD>(7)<TD>48<TD>43<TD>50<TD>41<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.25<TD>(8)<TD>4.1<TD>(8)<TD>0.517<TD>(8)<TD>48<TD>44<TD>50<TD>42<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.98<TD>(12)<TD>4.16<TD>(9)<TD>0.479<TD>(9)<TD>44<TD>47<TD>44<TD>47<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.59<TD>(13)<TD>3.76<TD>(3)<TD>0.479<TD>(10)<TD>45<TD>49<TD>47<TD>47<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.48<TD>(3)<TD>4.7<TD>(15)<TD>0.478<TD>(11)<TD>44<TD>47<TD>45<TD>46<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.16<TD>(9)<TD>4.55<TD>(13)<TD>0.46<TD>(12)<TD>42<TD>49<TD>43<TD>48<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.13<TD>(11)<TD>4.65<TD>(14)<TD>0.446<TD>(13)<TD>41<TD>50<TD>42<TD>49<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.48<TD>(14)<TD>4.01<TD>(7)<TD>0.435<TD>(14)<TD>40<TD>52<TD>42<TD>50<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.37<TD>(15)<TD>4.22<TD>(10)<TD>0.398<TD>(15)<TD>36<TD>54<TD>42<TD>48<TD>6<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>99<TD>63<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>97<TD>65<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>2<TD>(13)<TD>0<TD>(1)<TD>1<TD>(1)<TD>2<TD>0<TD>2<TD>0<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>4<TD>(5)<TD>1.67<TD>(2)<TD>0.832<TD>(2)<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>5.67<TD>(2)<TD>2.67<TD>(4)<TD>0.799<TD>(3)<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>6.33<TD>(1)<TD>3<TD>(7)<TD>0.797<TD>(4)<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>5<TD>(3)<TD>3.33<TD>(9)<TD>0.677<TD>(5)<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>3.75<TD>(6)<TD>2.75<TD>(6)<TD>0.638<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>1<TD>3<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>5<TD>(3)<TD>4.33<TD>(12)<TD>0.565<TD>(7)<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>3<TD>(8)<TD>2.67<TD>(4)<TD>0.554<TD>(8)<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>2.67<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>(7)<TD>0.446<TD>(9)<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>2.75<TD>(10)<TD>3.75<TD>(10)<TD>0.362<TD>(10)<TD>1<TD>3<TD>1<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>3.33<TD>(7)<TD>5<TD>(13)<TD>0.323<TD>(11)<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3<TD>(8)<TD>6.33<TD>(15)<TD>0.203<TD>(12)<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>2.67<TD>(11)<TD>5.67<TD>(14)<TD>0.201<TD>(13)<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>1.67<TD>(14)<TD>4<TD>(11)<TD>0.168<TD>(14)<TD>1<TD>2<TD>1<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>0<TD>(15)<TD>2<TD>(3)<TD>0<TD>(15)<TD>0<TD>2<TD>0<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-45227560212294331302015-07-13T07:26:00.000-04:002015-07-13T07:26:07.629-04:00Monday pythagorean - 7/13/2015
While 3-2 isn't a bad week, this particular 3-2 week was a week with a squandered opportunity to close the gap in the East...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>7/7 - @Boston 4 - Miami 3 - There is some second-guessing after John Farrell sends Wade Miley back to the mound in the 7th inning of a one-one game, and he gives up back-to-back extra base hits as the Marlins take a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 7th. But Boston loads the bases with two outs, and Xander Bogaerts, on the 8th pitch of his at-bat, clears the bases on a single to provide the final, and winning, runs in a 4-3 Boston win.</li><br><br>
<li>7/8 - @Boston 6 - Miami 3 - The Red Sox take a 4-0 lead in the third inning and hang on for a 6-4 win as Rick Porcello breaks a -ersonal 8-game winless streak (0-7) and, on their 4th attempt to do so, Boston becomes the last Major League team to put together a 4-game winning streak in 2015.</li><br><br>
<li>7/10 - New York 5 - @Boston 1 - Having played themselves back on to the edges of the division race, with a chance to go into the All Star break with momentum, the last thing that Boston needs is a loss to first-place New York in which Clay Buchholz leaves the game in the 4th inning with an injury. But that's what happens, as Boston's defense struggles, as does its offense, and the winning streak ends, and the deficit in the division goes back up to 6 1/2.</li><br><br>
<li>7/11 - @Boston 5 - New York 3 - For the second consecutive night, Alex Rodriguez goes deep in the top of the first to give the Yankees an early lead. The Red Sox tie it in the second on a ground ball, and take a lead they'll not relinquish in the third when Hanley Ramirez goes deep with a man on. Eduardo Rodriguez pitches well for 6 1/3, allowing two solo HR, and the Red Sox increase their lead with two in the 7th before holding on to a 5-3 win.</li><br><br>
<li>7/12 - New York 8 - @Boston 6 - Boston ties for its high runs scored total on the week with six, but Wade Miley leaves in the 6th after alliowing five, the bullpen allows another inherited runner to score, and then two more in the 9th, as they come up short yet again, to end the "first half" on a down note.</li><br><br>
</ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>The Boston Red Sox enter the All Star break 6 1/2 games out in the AL East with 73 games left to play, including 10 remaining against the first-place Yankees. </li><br><br>
<li>They had a chance to get the deficit in the division down to 4 1/2 game twice this week. Each time, they lost to the Yankees.</li><br><br>
<li>There will be many, I am certain, who will claim that Ortiz was not sick yesterday, just unwilling to play first base. I am not one of them, but they'll be out there. I expect that Boston sports talk radio will be fairly toxic today.</li><br><br>
<li>In his last 9 appearances, each one inning, Koji Uehara has thrown a 2-hitter, with no walks and no runs allowed, while striking out 10. I made a comment earlier in the year to the effect that I had been happy to have them sign him and bring him back, but was concerned that it had been a mistake. Well, they were right and I was wrong. He's been spectacular for most of the year.</li><br><br>
<li>Whether your position was that they should trade Buchholz (not mine) or hold on to him (mine), him leaving the game during the fourth inning on Friday night hurt your position. It made it impossible for them to trade him, and it made his presence on the roster pointless and unhelpful, at least for the next few weeks.</li><br><br>
<li>They scored some runs this week, other than Friday, which is interesting, because other than David Ortiz, there were not any particularly good offensive performances.</li><br><br>
<li>One of the great at-bats of the year came on Tuesday night, when Xander Bogaerts faced the Marlins' Carter Capps with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 7th, and Boston trailing 3-1. Capps has a delivery which is borderline legal at best (in my opinion it's on the wrong side of the line and not particularly close to it), which involves him pushing off rubber and sliding his plant foot forward before completing his windup and releasing the ball. As a result, he's not only thrown 99 MPH, he's doing so from 1 1/2-2 feet closer to home plate, which increases the effective velocity. If the normal release point is ~58 feet from home plate, and Capps release is ~56 feet from home plate, than Capps' 99 MPH fast-ball looks like ~102.5 MPH. And Bogaerts fought off several of them before drilling one in to right field to score all three runners, including Betts who had, with a full count and two outs, been off from first with the pitch.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Pre-All Star Break</b> - This will be a controversial choice, I'm sure, but I'm going with <b>Mookie Betts</b> (.277/.328/.464/.792, 54.49 runs created, 5.24 RC/25 outs). OK, maybe it's not controversial. On per-plate appearance basis, a few others - Pedroia, Holt, de Aza - were more productive, and in that sense, hitting lead-off every night helps Mookie. But he worked through an early slump and adjustment period, and has been productive both offensively and defensively, and for the past two months has been outstanding.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Pre-All Star Break</b> - <b>Clay Buchholz</b>. His second start was a disaster, and it took a long time for his ERA to come down from that disaster. He's also had very little run support, resulting in a 7-7 record. But he has consistently been effective, with a 3.26 ERA for the season, more than 6 innings pitched per start for his 18 starts, and an excellent 4.65 K/BB ratio. As bad as this stretch has been, it could have been much worse, and it's largely due to Buchholz that it hasn't been.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - I am tempted not to award it, because the only really good week came from <b>David Ortiz</b>(.308/.438/.692/1.130, 3.77 runs created, 10.47 RC/25 outs), who only played in four games. But the team only played five, so Ortiz it is.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - In the absence of a good starting pitching candidate - ok, Eduardo Rodriguez was good, albeit unspectacular - I'm going to choose this week to recognize <b>Koji Uehara</b>, who has been outstanding again. In three appearances this week, he allowed one hit while striking out five and walking none.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/13/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.34<TD>(1)<TD>4.44<TD>(12)<TD>0.584<TD>(1)<TD>53<TD>38<TD>45<TD>46<TD>-8<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.42<TD>(4)<TD>3.69<TD>(1)<TD>0.582<TD>(2)<TD>50<TD>36<TD>52<TD>34<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.34<TD>(6)<TD>3.79<TD>(3)<TD>0.562<TD>(3)<TD>51<TD>40<TD>49<TD>42<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.29<TD>(8)<TD>3.8<TD>(4)<TD>0.555<TD>(4)<TD>50<TD>41<TD>41<TD>50<TD>-9<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.4<TD>(5)<TD>3.95<TD>(6)<TD>0.548<TD>(5)<TD>48<TD>40<TD>44<TD>44<TD>-4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.18<TD>(11)<TD>3.81<TD>(5)<TD>0.543<TD>(6)<TD>48<TD>40<TD>48<TD>40<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.65<TD>(2)<TD>4.35<TD>(11)<TD>0.53<TD>(7)<TD>47<TD>41<TD>48<TD>40<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.3<TD>(7)<TD>4.04<TD>(7)<TD>0.528<TD>(8)<TD>47<TD>42<TD>49<TD>40<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.65<TD>(13)<TD>3.75<TD>(2)<TD>0.488<TD>(9)<TD>44<TD>47<TD>46<TD>45<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.52<TD>(3)<TD>4.69<TD>(14)<TD>0.483<TD>(10)<TD>43<TD>45<TD>44<TD>44<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.94<TD>(12)<TD>4.16<TD>(9)<TD>0.476<TD>(11)<TD>42<TD>46<TD>42<TD>46<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.2<TD>(10)<TD>4.49<TD>(13)<TD>0.47<TD>(12)<TD>41<TD>47<TD>42<TD>46<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.22<TD>(9)<TD>4.71<TD>(15)<TD>0.451<TD>(13)<TD>40<TD>49<TD>42<TD>47<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.51<TD>(14)<TD>4.04<TD>(7)<TD>0.435<TD>(14)<TD>39<TD>50<TD>41<TD>48<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.4<TD>(15)<TD>4.24<TD>(10)<TD>0.399<TD>(15)<TD>34<TD>52<TD>41<TD>45<TD>7<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>98<TD>64<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>96<TD>66<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>5.33<TD>(4)<TD>3.67<TD>(5)<TD>0.665<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>2.29<TD>(15)<TD>3.29<TD>(3)<TD>0.34<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>6<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>3<TD>(12)<TD>3.83<TD>(7)<TD>0.39<TD>(11)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>3.71<TD>(8)<TD>4.29<TD>(8)<TD>0.435<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.14<TD>(11)<TD>2.86<TD>(2)<TD>0.543<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>4.86<TD>(6)<TD>6<TD>(14)<TD>0.405<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>2.83<TD>(14)<TD>4.83<TD>(12)<TD>0.273<TD>(15)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3.2<TD>(10)<TD>4.4<TD>(9)<TD>0.358<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>3<TD>1<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.71<TD>(8)<TD>5.29<TD>(13)<TD>0.344<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>3<TD>4<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.4<TD>(7)<TD>4.4<TD>(9)<TD>0.5<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>2<TD>3<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>7<TD>(1)<TD>4.57<TD>(11)<TD>0.686<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>6<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>5.57<TD>(3)<TD>6<TD>(14)<TD>0.466<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>6.14<TD>(2)<TD>3.43<TD>(4)<TD>0.744<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>6<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>(1)<TD>0.677<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5<TD>(5)<TD>3.67<TD>(5)<TD>0.638<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-12247529092780355642015-07-07T14:05:00.000-04:002015-07-07T14:05:07.518-04:00"The socialist surge "<br />
So, a media outlet is willing to actually acknowledge that <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/bernie-sanders-socialist-surge-119785.html">the American Democratic party is not a centrist</a> party.<br />
<blockquote><i>Democratic primaries have always featured liberal insurgent candidates, but perhaps none quite so liberal or insurgent as the socialist senator from Vermont. Sanders’ comments are a reminder of just how far the second-place Democratic presidential candidate stands from the American mainstream on some issues, and <b>the looming reckoning Democrats face with their party’s leftward drift.</b></i></blockquote>I've got several FB friends and relations who would argue any allegation that Barack Obama is a socialist, and I always wonder, if pressed, if they could name a single issue on which Bernie Sanders is any further left than Barack Obama.<br />
<br />
I can't, and I suspect that they couldn't either, because I don't think that there is any such issue...Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com81tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-31991833243734726142015-07-06T07:55:00.000-04:002015-07-07T08:59:02.407-04:00Monday pythagorean - 7/6/2015
You can play yourself into a situation in which a 5-2 week is not good enough to help, but it's always a good week, and the Red Sox haven't gotten to that situation - quite - yet...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>6/30 - Boston 3 - @Toronto 1 - Following a successful weekend in Tampa, the Red Sox open a four-game series in Toronto with a win. Xander Bogaerts drives in two with a third-inning double and that would prove to be all of the offensive support that Clay Buchholz would need, allowing just one run over eight innings before Koji Uehara finishes it off.</li><br><br>
<li>6/31 - Boston 4 - @Toronto 3 - The Red Sox score in each of the first three innings, taking a 4-0 lead after 2 1/2 innings, and then watching the pitching hold on for seven more inning. Eduardo Rodriguez' attempt to fix his "pitch tipping" issues were effective, if not completely so, and he ends up allowing only one run in six innings of work. Tommy Layne allows a 2-run HR to cut the lead to one in the 7th, but Alexi Ogando and Koji Uehara combine to retire all seven batters they face, and the lead holds up.</li><br><br>
<li>7/1 - @Toronto 11 - Boston 2 - After Boston fails to score in the top of the first, Rick Porcello takes the mound and puts his team in a hole that they won't climb out of. He allows a three-run HR and a two-run HR as the Blue Jays score 5 before the Red Sox cleanup batter hits. Another two-run HR in the second makes it 7-0, and Porcello's day ends early and ugly, enroute to a Blue Jay blowout.</li><br><br>
<li>7/2 - Boston 12 - @Toronto 6 - As bad as Rick Porcello's first inning was on Wednesday, the Red Sox come out and make Matt Boyd's first inning top it on Thursday. Like the Wednesday first, there were two HR, one of which was a three-run HR. But Boyd ends up retiring no one, leaving with a 5-0 deficit, and seeing the first batter faced by the bullpen give up a two-run triple, leaving him with a pitching line of 7 runs allowed while allowing six hits and a walk, and retiring no one. Wade Miley has one tough inning, allowing four runs in the second, but it's far too little, and the Red Sox pad the lead later in the game, building a 12-4 lead before allowing a couple of garbage time runs in the ninth, and leaving Toronto having won 3-of-4, and 5-of-7 on the trip.</li><br><br>
<li>7/3 - Houston 12 - @Boston 8 - Not for the first time, the Red Sox have a starter pitch very effectively for three innings only to completely lose it in the fourth. This time it's Justin Masterson, who takes a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the fourth and hands a 5-2 deficit over to the bullpen. The Red Sox battle back repeatedly, scoring 3 to tie after falling behind 5-2, scoring 2 to tie after falling behind 7-5, and scoring 1 to tie after falling behind 8-7. But they ran themselves out of a bigger potential inning in the 8th when Mookie Betts was throwing out trying to steal third, and the bullpen couldn't keep the Astros down. When Noe Ramirez' ignominious Major League debut ended with Houston scoring four runs in the top of the 10th, that was a bridge too far.</li><br><br>
<li>7/4 - @Boston 6 - Houston 1 - Boston evens the series with AL-best record Houston as the offense continues to produce, and Clay Buchholz outstanding run continues. For the second time on the week, Buchholz allows only one run, this time in a complete game six-hitter with no walks and 8 strikeouts.</li><br><br>
<li>7/5 - @Boston 5 - Houston 4 - In a match-up of talented young AL starters, neither wins, as Eduardo Rodgriguez and Lance McCullers both reach 100 pitches and exit the game after 5. Objectively, Rodriguez pitched a little bit better, allowing 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8, vs. 7, 3 and 3 for McCullers, but the bottom line is that they each allowed one run over five innings. Boston scored two against the Astros' bullpen in the 6th, but Alexi Ogando's string of scoreless appearances ends at 12, as he allows back-to-back HR in the top of the 7th, the first coming with one man on, as Houston takes a 4-3 lead. But the Red Sox battle back in the bottom, as David Ortiz draws a walk on an 11-pitch at-bat, and Hanley Ramirez follows with an off-balance swing that puts the ball into the Monster Seats, and the rest of the Sox bullpen hangs on for the 5-4 win.</li><br><br></ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>As poorly as they've played, as disappointing as they have been, the Red Sox enter the final week before the All Star break only six games out in the East, and finish the "first half" with a three-game series at home vs. the first place Yankees.</li><br><br>
<li>Through April 26, Mookie Betts struggled, hitting a lot of shots right at fielders, and with pitchers adjusting to what they'd seen from him last year and in spring training. He also displayed less patience than we'd like to see. But there was no panic, just confidence that he would adjust to how he was being pitched. And he has.
<blockquote>Through 4/26 (18 games) (.189/.274/.297/.571, 7.43 runs created, 3.00 RC/25 outs)
Since 4/26 (63 games) (.310/.356/.512/.868, 45.46 runs created, 6.31 RC/25 outs)</blockquote>
He is currently 7th in the AL in WAR (Wins Against Replacement). He's not going to make the All Star game because a) Boston's record and b) Mike Trout, but he's been one of the 10 most productive players in the AL thus far.</li><br><br>
<li>I remember, in the olden days, having conversations and expressing satisfaction that the Red Sox had managed to extend Rick Porcello. Ah, it was a younger and more foolish time...</li><br><br>
<li>Honesty compels me to say that I have never heard of Noe Ramirez, and when reading the recaps of Friday night's game (I was completely off the grid for Friday-Sunday morning) I had no idea who they were talking about.</li><br><br>
<li>Three weeks ago today, the Red Sox lost to Atlanta, running their current losing streak to 6 games, and moving them 9 games back in the east with the 2nd-worst record in the AL, just ahead of Oakland. Since then, they've gone 12-7, half a game behind the Angels for the AL's best record over that stretch. They've scored more runs than they've allowed, and they've gotten back to six games out in the East. In short, they've looked a lot more like the team that a) we expected to see and b) saw for the first few weeks of April. Is it too little, too late? They have four teams in front of them, but they're in position to make a run. They go into the All Star break after five more home games, the last three against the first place Yankees. If they could sweep that series, or at least take two while sweeping two from Florida, they would be in a competitive position to start the second "half" of the season.</li><br><br>
<li>I suspect that Alejandro De Aza is Spanish for "lightning in a bottle." Wow, has that acquisition turned out well. As long as they don't allow themselves to be fooled by the hot streak into believing that he's a better player than he actually is. He's a 31-year old 8 year Major League veteran whose line before arriving in Boston was .265/.328/.401/.728. You need to take the last month, express tremendous gratitude to the baseball Gods, and replace with something better, rather than depending on him to carry your lineup.</li><br><br>
<li>Hanley Ramirez, on Sunday, hit possibly the worst looking HR that I've ever seen. He was off balanced, reaching, losing his grip on the bat. But it was in Fenway, and he made good contact, and it won the game.</li><br><br>
<li>With yesterday's win, the Red Sox have now won three consecutive series for the first time since the first three series of the year. Two of them were in the division, where they've struggled.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Alejandro De Aza (.391/.462/.696/1.157, 6.68 runs created, 11.92 RC/25 outs) is worthy of mention. Xander Bogaerts (.367/.424/.467/.891, 5.57 runs created, 6.96 RC/25 outs) continues to shine. But the award goes, again, to <b>Mookie Betts</b> (.419/.457/.710/1.167, 8.56 runs created, 10.19 RC/25 outs), who is rapidly establishing himself as one of the best players in baseball.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - In some weeks, what Eduardo Rogriguez did - 2 runs over 11 innings in 2 starts, would have been enough to win this award. But not this week. His very good week is completely overshadowed by the dominant effort from <b>Clay Buchholz</b>. Buchholz, who threw 17 innings and allowed just two runs, one in each of his dominant starts this week. He allowed 11 hits and no walks while striking out 13 and hitting one. Absolute dominance.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/6/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.48<TD>(1)<TD>4.45<TD>(12)<TD>0.594<TD>(1)<TD>50<TD>34<TD>43<TD>41<TD>-7<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.51<TD>(4)<TD>3.83<TD>(5)<TD>0.574<TD>(2)<TD>48<TD>36<TD>48<TD>36<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.19<TD>(9)<TD>3.61<TD>(1)<TD>0.568<TD>(3)<TD>45<TD>34<TD>46<TD>33<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.51<TD>(3)<TD>3.89<TD>(7)<TD>0.567<TD>(4)<TD>47<TD>35<TD>43<TD>39<TD>-4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.38<TD>(6)<TD>3.8<TD>(3)<TD>0.564<TD>(5)<TD>48<TD>37<TD>38<TD>47<TD>-10<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.1<TD>(11)<TD>3.82<TD>(4)<TD>0.532<TD>(6)<TD>44<TD>38<TD>44<TD>38<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.62<TD>(2)<TD>4.4<TD>(10)<TD>0.522<TD>(7)<TD>43<TD>39<TD>44<TD>38<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.15<TD>(10)<TD>4.1<TD>(8)<TD>0.505<TD>(8)<TD>41<TD>41<TD>43<TD>39<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.64<TD>(13)<TD>3.62<TD>(2)<TD>0.503<TD>(9)<TD>42<TD>42<TD>43<TD>41<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.43<TD>(5)<TD>4.58<TD>(14)<TD>0.485<TD>(10)<TD>39<TD>42<TD>41<TD>40<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.27<TD>(7)<TD>4.49<TD>(13)<TD>0.476<TD>(11)<TD>40<TD>43<TD>41<TD>42<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.01<TD>(12)<TD>4.27<TD>(9)<TD>0.471<TD>(12)<TD>38<TD>43<TD>38<TD>43<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.21<TD>(8)<TD>4.73<TD>(15)<TD>0.448<TD>(13)<TD>38<TD>46<TD>39<TD>45<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.39<TD>(15)<TD>3.88<TD>(6)<TD>0.439<TD>(14)<TD>36<TD>46<TD>38<TD>44<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.43<TD>(14)<TD>4.44<TD>(11)<TD>0.384<TD>(15)<TD>30<TD>49<TD>36<TD>43<TD>6<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>94<TD>68<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>85<TD>77<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>6.67<TD>(1)<TD>2.17<TD>(3)<TD>0.887<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.86<TD>(6)<TD>2.29<TD>(4)<TD>0.799<TD>(2)<TD>6<TD>1<TD>5<TD>2<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.83<TD>(9)<TD>2<TD>(1)<TD>0.767<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>4<TD>2<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>3.43<TD>(10)<TD>2.14<TD>(2)<TD>0.703<TD>(4)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>5.5<TD>(4)<TD>4.17<TD>(10)<TD>0.624<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>2.8<TD>(13)<TD>2.6<TD>(5)<TD>0.534<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>5.71<TD>(2)<TD>5.43<TD>(12)<TD>0.523<TD>(7)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>5<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>3.86<TD>(8)<TD>3.86<TD>(8)<TD>0.5<TD>(8)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.71<TD>(2)<TD>6<TD>(13)<TD>0.478<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>3.14<TD>(12)<TD>3.57<TD>(6)<TD>0.442<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>5.33<TD>(5)<TD>6.83<TD>(15)<TD>0.389<TD>(11)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>2.67<TD>(14)<TD>3.67<TD>(7)<TD>0.358<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>6.29<TD>(14)<TD>0.304<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>3<TD>4<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.29<TD>(11)<TD>5.29<TD>(11)<TD>0.295<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>6<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>2.14<TD>(15)<TD>3.86<TD>(8)<TD>0.254<TD>(15)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com56tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-84073228869119884492015-06-29T07:15:00.001-04:002015-06-29T07:15:52.698-04:00Monday pythagorean - 6/29/2015
A team with a big lead can afford to alternate wins and losses for a while. A team with a big deficit is ill-positioned to play that way. Like the [LWLWLW] Red Sox...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>6/23 - Baltimore 6 - @Boston 4 - In what will be his last Major League start for a while, Joe Kelly allows four runs in the second inning, and the bullpen allows a fifth when he's pulled with two outs in the fourth. Boston scores single runs in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 9th, but can't put up a "crooked number," and the attempted comeback falls short.</li><br><br>
<li>6/24 - @Boston 5 - Baltimore 1 - Another excellent start from Clay Buchholz, who strikes out seven while walking one, and allows only one run over seven innings. All of the runs score in the sixth inning, as Baltimore breaks a scoreless tie with one in the top half, and the Red Sox respond with six in the bottom half.</li><br><br>
<li>6/25 - Baltimore 8 - @Boston 6 - For the second time in the three game series, Boston's starter fails to finish the fourth. Eduardo Rogriguez is perfect and unhittable for the first 3 1/3 innings, and then allows seven consecutive hits to the next seven batters, including two doubles and a HR. He finishes his day having allowed six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings pitched. Boston fights back, scoring three themselves in the bottom of the fourth and a couple more in the seventh, but cannot climb all the way out of the early hole.</li><br><br>
<li>6/26 - Boston 4 - @Tampa 3 - For the first time since May 16 in Seattle, a stretch covering six starts, Rick Porcello starts a game for the Red Sox and doesn't end up with a loss. He gives them a mediocre (albeit "quality) start, allowing 3 runs in six innings, and the bullpen holds the Rays scoreless for four as Brock Holt drives in Mookie Betts with the winning run in the top of the 10th.</li><br><br>
<li>6/27 - @Tampa 4 - Boston 1 - Another strong start - 6 1/3, 2 runs - from Wade Miley, who has been consistently good since the middle of April, is wasted as the offense is limited to two hits and one run, and the bullpen gives up two more to prevent the tying run from ever getting to the plarte.</li><br><br>
<li>6/28 - Boston 5 - @Tampa 3 - Justin Masterson returns to the Major League rotation with five strong innings, allowing only one uneared run, and the offense hits three HR and scores five runs against Chris Archer as the Red Sox win the series in Tampa.</li><br><br>
</ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>With Sunday's win in Tampa, Boston won a series against one of its AL East rivals for the first time since taking 2-of-3 from Toronto at the end of April. They had lost six consecutive series in the division, once to the Yankees and Rays, and twice each to the Blue Jays and Orioles.</li><br><br>
<li>In the last two weeks, Boston's only had one streak of any kind, and it only lasted for two games. They won on the 18th in Atlanta and on the 19th in Kansas City. Every other win has been followed by a loss; every loss has been followed by a win.</li><br><br>
<li>They've had several weeks in which they failed to score as many runs as they "created," with their actual run-scoring falling short, sometimes well short, of what their component offense suggested they should have scored. This week, the opposite occured, as they did not hit well, at all, but scored more (25) than they created (21).</li><br><br>
<li>On April 11, the Red Sox and Yankees played into the seventeenth inning on a Saturday afternoon in the Bronx, and Clay Buchholz, who normally has four days rest between starts, was warming up in the bullpen, in preparation for pitching the 18th, late in the game. The following night he started, and was shelled, allowing 10 runs, 9 earned, in just 3 1/3 innings, raising his ERA to 7.84, and reinforcing all of the negative Buchholz stereotypes. But in his other 14 starts this year, excluding the one following his bullpen-relief preparatory session, his ERA is 2.61 in over 6 1/3 innings per start. In other words, he has been a very good starter this year.</li><br><br>
<li>It's safe to say that Mookie Betts (.167/.259/.250/.509, 1.71 runs created, 2.14 RC/25 outs) won't be the AL Player of the Week this week.</li><br><br>
<li>He still had a better week than the recently recalled, again, Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.214/.200/.214/.414, .48 runs created, .99 RC/25 outs).</li><br><br>
<li>A nice return to the Majors for Justin Masterson (1 unearned run over 5 innings).</li><br><br>
<li>A difficult Major League debut for Jonathan Aro, who allowed 3 runs in 1 1/3 innings over two appearances.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Only one candidate worth discussing this week, but it only takes one, and <b>Alejandro De Aza</b> (.353/.389/.941/1.330, 4.67 runs created, 8.98 RC/25 outs) is he.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - <b>Clay Buchholz</b> continues to pitch very well, allowing only one run over seven innings in his start against the Orioles this week.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/29/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.45<TD>(1)<TD>4.31<TD>(9)<TD>0.606<TD>(1)<TD>47<TD>30<TD>41<TD>36<TD>-6<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.39<TD>(6)<TD>3.58<TD>(2)<TD>0.592<TD>(2)<TD>43<TD>29<TD>44<TD>28<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.64<TD>(3)<TD>3.92<TD>(4)<TD>0.577<TD>(3)<TD>43<TD>32<TD>41<TD>34<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.44<TD>(5)<TD>3.81<TD>(3)<TD>0.569<TD>(4)<TD>44<TD>34<TD>44<TD>34<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.46<TD>(4)<TD>3.95<TD>(6)<TD>0.556<TD>(5)<TD>43<TD>35<TD>34<TD>44<TD>-9<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.78<TD>(2)<TD>4.46<TD>(13)<TD>0.531<TD>(6)<TD>40<TD>36<TD>41<TD>35<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.68<TD>(13)<TD>3.47<TD>(1)<TD>0.527<TD>(7)<TD>41<TD>36<TD>42<TD>35<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.17<TD>(9)<TD>4.12<TD>(8)<TD>0.506<TD>(8)<TD>38<TD>37<TD>40<TD>35<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.36<TD>(7)<TD>4.4<TD>(11)<TD>0.496<TD>(9)<TD>37<TD>38<TD>39<TD>36<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.29<TD>(8)<TD>4.33<TD>(10)<TD>0.496<TD>(10)<TD>38<TD>38<TD>38<TD>38<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.89<TD>(12)<TD>3.95<TD>(5)<TD>0.494<TD>(11)<TD>38<TD>38<TD>39<TD>37<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.93<TD>(11)<TD>4.46<TD>(12)<TD>0.443<TD>(12)<TD>33<TD>41<TD>33<TD>41<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.08<TD>(10)<TD>4.66<TD>(15)<TD>0.439<TD>(13)<TD>34<TD>43<TD>34<TD>43<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.36<TD>(15)<TD>4.03<TD>(7)<TD>0.417<TD>(14)<TD>32<TD>44<TD>34<TD>42<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.47<TD>(14)<TD>4.57<TD>(14)<TD>0.377<TD>(15)<TD>28<TD>46<TD>32<TD>42<TD>4<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>99<TD>63<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>97<TD>65<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>5.17<TD>(4)<TD>3<TD>(3)<TD>0.73<TD>(1)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>4.5<TD>(7)<TD>2.83<TD>(1)<TD>0.7<TD>(2)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>2.83<TD>(1)<TD>0.669<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.57<TD>(6)<TD>3.14<TD>(4)<TD>0.665<TD>(4)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>5.5<TD>(2)<TD>4.33<TD>(10)<TD>0.607<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.83<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>0.586<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>5.67<TD>(1)<TD>5.33<TD>(11)<TD>0.528<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>4.17<TD>(9)<TD>0.5<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5.29<TD>(3)<TD>5.57<TD>(13)<TD>0.476<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.17<TD>(11)<TD>3.67<TD>(6)<TD>0.433<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>2.83<TD>(14)<TD>3.33<TD>(5)<TD>0.426<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>2.83<TD>(14)<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>0.347<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>4<TD>2<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>6.33<TD>(15)<TD>0.317<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.17<TD>(11)<TD>5.5<TD>(12)<TD>0.267<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3.17<TD>(11)<TD>6.17<TD>(14)<TD>0.228<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-13492010950405521722015-06-22T06:48:00.001-04:002015-06-22T06:54:32.810-04:00Monday pythagorean - 6/22/2015Given the competition and the overall performance level, this 4-3 week was more impressive than the 5-2 two weeks ago, and probably the team's best week since the first week...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>6/15 - Atlanta 4 - @Boston 2 - The losing streak reaches 7 as Rick Porcello is mediocre again, and the bats are silent again, with the Braves taking a 4-0 lead into the bottom of the 7th, and the Red Sox putting up individual runs in the 7th and 9th to create the mistaken impression that the game was competitive.</li><br><br>
<li>6/16 - @Boston 9 - Atlanta 4 - Wade Miley is effective, Brock Holt hits for the cycle (and Mookie Betts misses joining him by a HR) and the Boston offense scores multiple runs in three different innings, and a single run in a fourth, as they score in half of their at-bats and put up one of their best outings of the years.</li><br><br>
<li>6/17 - @Atlanta 5 - Boston 2 - The Boston-Atlanta split-site series moves to Atlanta, and the Boston bats put up another anemic performance. Joe Kelly is effective but not efficient for five innings, and the bullpen allows one inherited runner to score, and then allows three more runs, setting up the loss.</li><br><br>
<li>6/18 - Boston 5 - @Atlanta 2 - The latest losing streak ends at one, with seven strong innings from Clay Buchholz, good bullpen support from Tommy Layne and Koji Uehara for one inning each, and three runs scored for lead-off-hitter-for-the-day Brock Holt.</li><br><br>
<li>6/19 - Boston 7 - @Kansas City 3 - Boston's bats explode for seven runs in the second inning against the Royals' Yohan Pino, and Eduardo Rodriguez puts up 6 1/3 strong innings in the first start after his only bad start.</li><br><br>
<li>6/20 - @Kansas City 7 - Boston 4 - The Red Sox score early and (relatively) often against Edinson Volquez, taking a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the fifth, but Rick Porcello's terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad year continues, as he gives up five runs in that half inning, and Boston's bats are held scoreless by the Royals' stellar bullpen.</li><br><br>
<li>6/21 - Boston 13 - @Kansas City 2 - For the second time this week, Mookie Betts comes one hit away from hitting for the cycle, this time just missing the single. The Red Sox offense explodes for 13, providing tremendous support for Wade Miley for the second time during the week, and for the second time during the week he pitches well enough that they didn't need to, as they take two-of-three from the Royals with a 13-2 win.</li><br><br>
</ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>Uncle Pythagoras thought that they could have had a better record this week, but I'm very happy to take what we got. And what we got was a team that looked, for the first time in over a month, like a competent, real, live, Major League Baseball team. It wasn't perfect, and there were some frustrations along the way, but this was the first week since April when it felt like the lineup was capable of regularly scoring runs.</li><br><br>
<li>From May 28th until last Tuesday, a period of 19 games over 20 days, the Red Sox deficit in the AL was a monotonically non-decreasing series. Over that stretch, there wasn't a single day in which they finished closer to first than they started, not a single day in which they won and the first place team lost. On Tuesday, they beat Atlanta while Tampa lost to Washington, cutting their deficit from 9 to 8 games.</li><br><br>
<li>They finish the week 9 games out of first and in fifth place in the East. While it seems like time to give up, those of us who remember 1978 and 1988 have seen bigger and later comebacks. Things don't look good, as they've dug themselves a substantial hole. But it's too soon to say that it's too late.</li><br><br>
<li>Two of Wade Miley's first four starts were disaster starts, games in which he didn't get out of the third inning and gave his team almost no chance to win. Through those first four games, he averaged just under 4 innings per start with an ERA of 8.62. And there was, understandably, talk about whether they could afford to keep him in the rotation, how bad the trade which brought him had been, etc. Since then, however, he's made 10 starts, averaging over six innings per, with an ERA of 3.47.</li><br><br>
<li>The idea that a player liking something on Instagram during the course of a game qualifies as a "scandal" strikes me as beyond preposterous. Ok, MLB has rules, and Sandoval broke them, so he got sat down for a game. Fine. Can we please, please, not pretend that a) this is a big story or b) is indicative of anyone's "approach to the game" or the clubhouse atmosphere or c) carries any kind of larger meaning? Talk about mountains out of molehills...</li><br><br>
<li>Brock Holt hit for the cycle on Tuesday night. He finished it off with a triple into the triangle in the bottom of the eighth. If the next batter, Mookie Betts, had hit a HR in that at-bat, the Red Sox would have had two cycles in the same game. A quick glance down the list suggests that that's never been done before. Alas, Betts flied out, and it's still never been done.</li><br><br>
<li>Betts was actually closer to it on Sunday than Tuesday, as he batted in the ninth needing just a single to complete the cycle. Again, he flied out.</li><br><br>
<li>I wouldn't have pitched either Tazawa or Uehara yesterday, but I understand why Farrell did - they'd had three and two days off, respectively, and they've got an off-day today. If Tazawa hadn't pitched, he'd have entered tomorrow's game with five days off, and Uehara with four. It's not clear to me that that would have been a bad thing, but they know more about their pitchers' routines and needs than I do.<li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - There were several Red Sox who put up impressive offensive numbers this week, from Pablo Sandoval (.421/.421/.632/1.053, 4.11 runs created, 8.55 RC/25 outs) and Blake Swihart (.385/.429/.538/.967, 1.66 runs created, 3.77 RC/25 outs) to Alejandro De Aza (.333/.364/.619/.983, 4.69 runs created, 8.37 RC/25 outs) and Brock Holt (.448/.515/.897/1.412, 10.39 runs created, 14.43 RC/25 outs). Despite that, this was an easy call. Because there was a monster among them. <b>Mookie Betts</b> (.581/.594/1.000/1.594, 13.73 runs created, 22.88 RC/25 outs) looked like he was playing MLB in debug mode. He found the cheat codes. Just a monster week. I'd like to see a little more plate discipline, a few more walks, but what the hell - if you're going to hit .581, you can forgo a couple of walks...</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - Eduardo Rodriguez followed up his awful start from last week with another very good one this week. Clay Buchholz continues to pitch well. But <b>Wade Miley</b> started twice, and was extremely effective twice, allowing just 2 runs in 12 1/3 innings for an ERA of 1.46, as the Red Sox put up two convincing and comfortable wins behind him.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/22/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.54<TD>(1)<TD>4.44<TD>(14)<TD>0.6<TD>(1)<TD>43<TD>28<TD>37<TD>34<TD>-6<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.41<TD>(6)<TD>3.65<TD>(2)<TD>0.585<TD>(2)<TD>39<TD>27<TD>39<TD>27<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.59<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>(6)<TD>0.563<TD>(3)<TD>39<TD>30<TD>36<TD>33<TD>-3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.42<TD>(5)<TD>3.87<TD>(3)<TD>0.56<TD>(4)<TD>40<TD>31<TD>41<TD>30<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.43<TD>(4)<TD>3.94<TD>(5)<TD>0.553<TD>(5)<TD>40<TD>32<TD>31<TD>41<TD>-9<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.72<TD>(2)<TD>4.35<TD>(11)<TD>0.538<TD>(6)<TD>37<TD>32<TD>38<TD>31<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.72<TD>(13)<TD>3.45<TD>(1)<TD>0.534<TD>(7)<TD>38<TD>33<TD>40<TD>31<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.39<TD>(7)<TD>4.17<TD>(9)<TD>0.523<TD>(8)<TD>37<TD>33<TD>37<TD>33<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.99<TD>(12)<TD>3.94<TD>(4)<TD>0.505<TD>(9)<TD>35<TD>35<TD>35<TD>35<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.06<TD>(10)<TD>4.1<TD>(8)<TD>0.495<TD>(10)<TD>34<TD>35<TD>37<TD>32<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.25<TD>(8)<TD>4.32<TD>(10)<TD>0.492<TD>(11)<TD>34<TD>35<TD>35<TD>34<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4<TD>(11)<TD>4.37<TD>(12)<TD>0.46<TD>(12)<TD>31<TD>37<TD>32<TD>36<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.07<TD>(9)<TD>4.7<TD>(15)<TD>0.434<TD>(13)<TD>31<TD>40<TD>31<TD>40<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.4<TD>(15)<TD>4.09<TD>(7)<TD>0.417<TD>(14)<TD>29<TD>41<TD>32<TD>38<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.41<TD>(14)<TD>4.41<TD>(13)<TD>0.385<TD>(15)<TD>26<TD>42<TD>30<TD>38<TD>4<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>96<TD>66<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>94<TD>68<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>7.43<TD>(1)<TD>3.71<TD>(5)<TD>0.78<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>6.57<TD>(2)<TD>3.71<TD>(5)<TD>0.74<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>6<TD>(3)<TD>3.86<TD>(9)<TD>0.692<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>5.86<TD>(4)<TD>4.14<TD>(10)<TD>0.653<TD>(4)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>2.57<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>(1)<TD>0.613<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.29<TD>(7)<TD>4.29<TD>(11)<TD>0.595<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>4<TD>(10)<TD>3.29<TD>(3)<TD>0.589<TD>(7)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>5<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.43<TD>(9)<TD>3.71<TD>(5)<TD>0.58<TD>(8)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>5.71<TD>(5)<TD>5<TD>(13)<TD>0.561<TD>(9)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>5<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5.57<TD>(6)<TD>5.14<TD>(14)<TD>0.537<TD>(10)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.14<TD>(11)<TD>3.57<TD>(4)<TD>0.442<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>4<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>2.43<TD>(13)<TD>3.14<TD>(2)<TD>0.384<TD>(12)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.83<TD>(8)<TD>6.33<TD>(15)<TD>0.379<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>2.17<TD>(14)<TD>4.67<TD>(12)<TD>0.197<TD>(14)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>1.57<TD>(15)<TD>3.71<TD>(5)<TD>0.172<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>6<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-43014205057085609922015-06-15T07:27:00.000-04:002015-06-15T07:27:01.249-04:00Monday pythagorean - 6/15/2015
That sound we hear, in the distance, but approaching rapidly, is Dandy Don Meredith and Maria Callas singing a duet of "Turn Out The Lights, The Party's Over..."
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>6/9 - @Baltimore 1 - Boston 0 - Another outstanding performance from Eduardo Rodriguez, and another pathetic performance from the Red Sox offense. </li><br><br>
<li>6/10 - @Baltimore 5 - Boston 2 - The offensive struggles, and Rick Porcello's unimpressive performance, result in another desultory loss in Baltimore.</li><br><br>
<li>6/11 - @Baltimore 6 - Boston 5 - After pitching very well for a month and a half, Wade Miley struggles, as the Orioles score in each of the first innings. The Red Sox fight back, repeatedly, but never completely close the gap as the Orioles complete the sweep.</li><br><br>
<li>6/12 - Toronto 13 - @Boston 10 - In a season filled with lowest points, we reach another, as the Red Sox take an early 8-1 lead back at home against the Blue Jays, and watch it disappear in an epic 7th inning in which the first 9 Toronto batters reach and score. The Red Sox do get the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the inning, but Mike Napoli strikes out to end any reasonable hopes of a comeback.</li><br><br>
<li>6/13 - Toronto 5 - @Boston 4 - Buchholz gives up 3 in the second, putting the Red Sox in a hole, again. Toronto scores the first four runs of the game, but Boston comes back with three of their own in the bottom of the fourth, and ties it in the 6th. But they don't score again, and an 11th inning HR from Russel Martin gives the Blue Jays the winning margin.</li><br><br>
<li>6/14 - Toronto 13 - @Boston 5 - Eduardo Rodriguez' string of spectacular starts ends at three, as the Blue Jays score six in the fourth, and four more in the process of knocking him out of the game in the fifth. </li><br><br></ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>In consecutive home innings (7 in the 8th on Sunday, 5 in the first on Friday), the Red Sox scored 12 runs. In 27 innings in between in Baltimore, they scored 7.</li><br><br>
<li>They got to 10 on Friday night, the first time in the 2015 season that they had scored double-digit runs. They allowed 13 and lost.</li><br><br>
<li>They continue to lose in every way possible. They lost a game this week in which they allowed only one run. They lost another in which they scored 10. They lose with bad defense, with bad offense, with bad pitching, with great opponent offense, with great opponent defense, with great opponent pitching - any way that there is to lose a game, they find it and use it.</li><br><br>
<li>I didn't want them to sign Pablo Sandoval, and I didn't like the contract. But I did acknowledge that it was my opinion that no team in baseball upgraded any single position over the offseason as much as the Red Sox upgraded at third base. That appears not to have been the case.</li><br><br>
<li>That said, he had a much better week than many that he's had thus far. Pablo Sandoval (.348/.348/.652/1.000, 4.51 runs created, 7.05 RC/25 outs)</li><br><br>
<li>I really expected great things from Mike Napoli, too. Wow, was I wrong. What a week - Mike Napoli (.063/.059/.063/.121, -1.02 runs created, -1.60 RC/25 outs) - ugh.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Goat of the Week</b> - This one is shared. The Red Sox led Toronto 8-4 on Friday night when <b>Matt Barnes</b> came in to pitch the seventh. Three hits later, he was replaced by <b>Junichi Tazawa</b>. Four hits and one error later, he was replaced by Tommy Layne, who allowed a HR to the first batter he faced. It was the ninth Toronto batter of the inning, and the ninth batter to score. Barnes and Tazawa allowed the 8 men that they faced to reach and score, turning (with the help of one pitch from Layne) a four-run seventh inning lead into a five-run seventh inning deficit. They did not retire a single batter.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - He insists that he's not done, and for one week anyway, that looks to be true. <b>David Ortiz</b> (.333/.455/.833/1.288, 6.16 runs created, 12.83 RC/25 outs) had a great, albeit meaningless in the long run, week.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - None. Three relief pitchers - Heath Hembree, Alexi Ogando and Koji Uehara, allowed 0 runs. Everyone else on the staff had an ERA of 5.79 or worse.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/15/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.56<TD>(1)<TD>4.45<TD>(13)<TD>0.6<TD>(1)<TD>38<TD>26<TD>34<TD>30<TD>-4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.25<TD>(6)<TD>3.49<TD>(2)<TD>0.589<TD>(2)<TD>35<TD>24<TD>34<TD>25<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.27<TD>(5)<TD>3.84<TD>(3)<TD>0.548<TD>(3)<TD>35<TD>29<TD>36<TD>28<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.63<TD>(2)<TD>4.26<TD>(10)<TD>0.538<TD>(4)<TD>33<TD>29<TD>34<TD>28<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.69<TD>(13)<TD>3.47<TD>(1)<TD>0.528<TD>(5)<TD>34<TD>30<TD>35<TD>29<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.27<TD>(4)<TD>4.03<TD>(6)<TD>0.527<TD>(6)<TD>33<TD>29<TD>31<TD>31<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.2<TD>(8)<TD>3.97<TD>(5)<TD>0.526<TD>(7)<TD>34<TD>31<TD>26<TD>39<TD>-8<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.59<TD>(3)<TD>4.41<TD>(12)<TD>0.518<TD>(8)<TD>33<TD>30<TD>33<TD>30<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.19<TD>(9)<TD>4.13<TD>(7)<TD>0.507<TD>(9)<TD>32<TD>31<TD>33<TD>30<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.24<TD>(7)<TD>4.21<TD>(9)<TD>0.503<TD>(10)<TD>31<TD>31<TD>34<TD>28<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.94<TD>(11)<TD>3.97<TD>(4)<TD>0.496<TD>(11)<TD>31<TD>32<TD>32<TD>31<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.18<TD>(10)<TD>4.34<TD>(11)<TD>0.483<TD>(12)<TD>30<TD>32<TD>29<TD>33<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.43<TD>(15)<TD>4.14<TD>(8)<TD>0.414<TD>(13)<TD>26<TD>37<TD>28<TD>35<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.62<TD>(14)<TD>4.49<TD>(14)<TD>0.403<TD>(14)<TD>25<TD>36<TD>28<TD>33<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>3.86<TD>(12)<TD>4.8<TD>(15)<TD>0.402<TD>(15)<TD>26<TD>38<TD>27<TD>37<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>8.83<TD>(1)<TD>4.5<TD>(10)<TD>0.775<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>6<TD>0<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>2.17<TD>(2)<TD>0.768<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>5.83<TD>(2)<TD>3.17<TD>(4)<TD>0.754<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.67<TD>(4)<TD>3.17<TD>(4)<TD>0.67<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>2.8<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>(1)<TD>0.649<TD>(5)<TD>3<TD>2<TD>3<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>5<TD>(3)<TD>3.6<TD>(7)<TD>0.646<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>2<TD>3<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.5<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>(3)<TD>0.57<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.83<TD>(9)<TD>3.33<TD>(6)<TD>0.564<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.33<TD>(6)<TD>4.33<TD>(8)<TD>0.5<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.67<TD>(10)<TD>4.33<TD>(8)<TD>0.424<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.4<TD>(5)<TD>5.8<TD>(13)<TD>0.376<TD>(11)<TD>2<TD>3<TD>2<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>2.83<TD>(13)<TD>4.67<TD>(11)<TD>0.286<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.33<TD>(6)<TD>7.17<TD>(15)<TD>0.285<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>6<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.33<TD>(12)<TD>5.83<TD>(14)<TD>0.264<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>2.67<TD>(15)<TD>5.33<TD>(12)<TD>0.22<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-20566065362633171012015-06-08T07:15:00.002-04:002015-06-08T07:15:24.123-04:00Monday pythagorean - 6/8/2015
All else being equal, 5-2 is a much better week than 1-6...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>6/2 - @Boston 1 - Minnesota 0 - For the fourth consecutive Clay Buchholz start, the Red Sox offense manages only a singe run. For the first time in that span, it's enough, as the Red Sox start their week at home with a shutout win over the Twins.</li><br><br>
<li>6/3 [1] - @Boston 6 - Minnesota 3 - Eduardo Rodriguez allows only one run on a solo HR over 7 more outstanding innings, bringing his Major League record to 2-0. Meanwhile, the Boston offense, in what has become an unusual achievement, scores at least one run in five of their 8 innings. </li><br><br>
<li>6/3 [2] - Minnesota 2 - @Boston 0 - In the night half of the day-night double header making up for Monday's rain-out, the bats are completely silent, with just two hits, as they waste a strong (8 innings, 2 runs) performance from Rick Porcello and the very modest winning streak ends at 2 games.</li><br><br>
<li>6/4 - Minnesota 8 - @Boston 4 - Boston scores in three consecutive innings, building a 4-0 lead through four, but then melts down. Steven Wright gives up a three-run homer in the 5th, a Sandoval error in the 6th leads to the tying run, and another in the 9th contributes to a 4-run Minnesota 9th and an 8-4 loss.</li><br><br>
<li>6/5 - @Boston 4 - Oakland 2 - The Red Sox get a strong performance (7 1/3, 2 runs) from Wade Miley, and a lot of help from the Oakland defense (3 errors) and manage to use those factors to put together a 4-2 win.</li><br><br>
<li>6/6 - @Boston 4 - Oakland 2 - For the second time in three days, the Red Sox score four early and then don't score again. This time, it's enough, as Joe Kelly gives up 1 over 6 strong innings and the bullpen manages to protect the lead for three innings. </li><br><br>
<li>6/6 - @Boston 7 - Oakland 4 - In a scene that we've seen too many times, the Red Sox enter a game on a bit of a roll and the bats are totally silent. They go to the bottom of the 8th down 4-0, and having had 13 batters in a row retired. But then everything changes, as Rusney Castillo leads off with a HR, Oakland pulls their starter, and Boston puts up 7 runs on 8 hits in its biggest inning of the year, and completes the sweep with a 7-4 win. </li></ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>At the end of April, after their first 22 games, the Red Sox had scored 113 runs, averaging 5.13 runs/game. Everyone who thought that this was a very good offensive team with suspect pitching looked to be correct. But in the 36 games since then, they've scored only 108, for an average of 3 runs per game. It has been stunning to watch. There have been no individual performances that are necessarily hard to believe, but to see all of Napoli, Ramirez, Ortiz, Betts, Sandoval and Castillo struggle the way they have simultaneously is not something that I would have predicted, and it's not something that can be overcome. If the Red Sox are the team that they've shown for the last month, they'll be drafting high again next year. If some of the offensive players can make adjustments, well, they're still only 5 1/2 games out in the East, with a lot of head-to-head games left in the division.</li><br><br>
<li>Quite a performance from the middle of the infield this week, as Pedroia and Bogaerts combined to hit .463/.500/.611/1.111 (14.64 runs created, 12.20 RC/25 outs).</li><br><br>
<li>As good a week as it was record-wise, they continue to struggle offensively. They only scored 3.7 runs/game, and it looked much worse than that before Sunday's epic 8th.</li><br><br>
<li>In seven games this week, Boston starters pitched 47 innings with a 2.49 ERA.</li><br><br>
<li>Wade Miley, season - 11 starts, 5.6 IP per game, 4.67 ERA. First 4 games - 4 starts, 3.9 IP per game, 8.62 ERA. Last 7 games - 7 starts, 6.6 IP per game, 3.33 ERA.</li><br><br>
<li>The 8th inning of Sunday's game more than makes up for the 9th inning of Thursday's game...</li><br><br>
<li>How good was Clay Buchholz on Tuesday night? He gave up four runs without getting out of the fifth inning yesterday, and it brought his ERA for the week up to 2.84.</li><br><br>
<li>It's amazing what one inning can do. They had another dreadful offensive week, and were going to be lucky to get out of the week at 4-3, and then, three outs and seven runs later, everything is sunshine and roses and momentum. Was that the start of getting the bats back on track? Or was it just one fluke inning that won one game for them, but meant nothing beyond that? If they go down and score five runs over the course of the next three nights in Baltimore, we'll know it was the latter.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Xander Bogaerts (.440/.462/.560/1.022, 5.88 runs created, 9.81 RC/25 outs) and Brock Holt (.375/.500/.438/.938, 4.30 runs created, 10.74 RC/25 outs) were excellent, both putting up performances that would warrant PotW consideration in almost any week. But whether it was the green fields of home, or the lead-off spot, or both (or neither), <b>Dustin Pedroia</b> (.483/.531/.655/1.186, 8.76 runs created, 14.60 RC/25 outs) had an outrageous week to walk away with it...</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - Miley (7 1/3, 2 runs), Porcello (8, 2 runs) and Kelly (6, 1 run) were all good this week. Buchholz wasn't good yesterday, but he fought through it and could easily have put the team out of it but didn't, and was absolutly outstanding in 8 shutout innings on Tuesday. But the award goes, for the second week in a row, to young <b>Eduardo Rodriguez</b>, whose second ML start was nearly as good as his first, allowing only one run in 7 innings of work.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/7/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.39<TD>(5)<TD>3.63<TD>(2)<TD>0.586<TD>(1)<TD>32<TD>22<TD>31<TD>23<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.22<TD>(1)<TD>4.45<TD>(13)<TD>0.573<TD>(2)<TD>33<TD>25<TD>28<TD>30<TD>-5<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.65<TD>(2)<TD>4.12<TD>(7)<TD>0.555<TD>(3)<TD>32<TD>25<TD>32<TD>25<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.69<TD>(13)<TD>3.38<TD>(1)<TD>0.54<TD>(4)<TD>31<TD>27<TD>31<TD>27<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.22<TD>(7)<TD>3.91<TD>(3)<TD>0.535<TD>(5)<TD>31<TD>27<TD>34<TD>24<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.41<TD>(4)<TD>4.09<TD>(6)<TD>0.535<TD>(6)<TD>30<TD>26<TD>33<TD>23<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.61<TD>(3)<TD>4.42<TD>(12)<TD>0.52<TD>(7)<TD>30<TD>27<TD>30<TD>27<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.2<TD>(8)<TD>4.15<TD>(9)<TD>0.506<TD>(8)<TD>30<TD>29<TD>23<TD>36<TD>-7<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.32<TD>(6)<TD>4.3<TD>(11)<TD>0.502<TD>(9)<TD>28<TD>28<TD>27<TD>29<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.11<TD>(10)<TD>4.13<TD>(8)<TD>0.498<TD>(10)<TD>28<TD>28<TD>26<TD>30<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.12<TD>(9)<TD>4.17<TD>(10)<TD>0.494<TD>(11)<TD>29<TD>29<TD>30<TD>28<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.95<TD>(11)<TD>4.04<TD>(5)<TD>0.49<TD>(12)<TD>28<TD>29<TD>28<TD>29<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.44<TD>(15)<TD>3.96<TD>(4)<TD>0.435<TD>(13)<TD>25<TD>32<TD>25<TD>32<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>3.81<TD>(12)<TD>4.55<TD>(14)<TD>0.419<TD>(14)<TD>24<TD>34<TD>27<TD>31<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.64<TD>(14)<TD>4.65<TD>(15)<TD>0.389<TD>(15)<TD>21<TD>34<TD>25<TD>30<TD>4<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>94<TD>68<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.83<TD>(2)<TD>2.5<TD>(2)<TD>0.825<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>6.17<TD>(1)<TD>2.83<TD>(3)<TD>0.806<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>6<TD>0<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>5<TD>(3)<TD>3<TD>(4)<TD>0.718<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.14<TD>(11)<TD>2.43<TD>(1)<TD>0.616<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>5<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>3.71<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>(4)<TD>0.596<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>5<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.33<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>(11)<TD>0.537<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>3.29<TD>(10)<TD>3.29<TD>(7)<TD>0.5<TD>(7)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.17<TD>(5)<TD>4.5<TD>(13)<TD>0.465<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>3.14<TD>(11)<TD>3.57<TD>(10)<TD>0.442<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>3.71<TD>(7)<TD>4.29<TD>(12)<TD>0.435<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>2.83<TD>(13)<TD>3.33<TD>(8)<TD>0.426<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4<TD>(6)<TD>6.17<TD>(15)<TD>0.312<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>2.17<TD>(14)<TD>3.5<TD>(9)<TD>0.294<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.5<TD>(9)<TD>5.83<TD>(14)<TD>0.282<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>1.43<TD>(15)<TD>3.14<TD>(6)<TD>0.191<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>6<TD>1<TD>6<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-67518996676253254562015-06-01T08:31:00.002-04:002015-06-01T08:31:26.869-04:00Monday pythagorean - 6/1/2015
Lose three, win one, lose three is not a recipe for success, but that's what the Red Sox did this week...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>5/25 - @Minnesota 7 - Boston 2 - Whatever positive momentum the Red Sox brought out of Boston disappeared before they arrived in the Twin Cities, as Joe Kelly gave up 7 runs without getting out of the second, and a two-run third inning was the sole evidence of offense from the Bosotn bats.</li><br><br>
<li>5/26 - @Minnesota 2 - Boston 1 - Clay Buchholz gives up two runs in the bottom of the first, and that proves sufficient for the Twins to build an insurmountable lead. Boston scores one in the second, and no one scores again, as the Twins hold on to their 2-1 lead for 7 innings.</li><br><br>
<li>5/27 - @Minnesota 6 - Boston 4 - For the first time in the three-game series in Minnesota, the Red Sox take a lead, scoring two runs in the top of the third. The lead is gone five batters into the bottom of the third, and the tie is gone one batter later, as the Twins score three in the third and never relinquish their lead in an eventual 6-4 Boston loss. </li><br><br>
<li>5/28 - Boston 5 - @Texas 1 - Eduardo Rogriguez, acquired at the trade deadline for two months of Andrew Miller's services, makes his Major League debut and far exceeds any hype that preceded him, allowing only 5 baserunners (3 hits and two walks) over 7 2/3 scoreless, while also striking out seven. The bats get some help from the Texas defense and the three-game losing streak to start the trip comes to an end.</li><br><br>
<li>5/29 - @Texas 7 - Boston 4 - Having lost many games due to bad starting pitching and woeful offense, the bullpen takes a turn, as Steven Wright pitches fairly well, and the offense score more than he allows, but two each from Ogando and Breslow doom them yet again.</li><br><br>
<li>5/30 - @Texas 8 - Boston 0 - As the Red Sox had two nights earlier, the Rangers start a pitcher making his Major League debut. As the Rangers had two nights earlier, the Red Sox don't hit, playing one of their worst games of the season, as they struggle offensively, on the mound, and in the field. </li><br><br>
<li>5/31 - @Texas 4 - Boston 3 - Joe Kelly is effective for five innings, and the Red Sox manage to score three, taking a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth. The potential tying run reaches on an error by Sandoval, two outs later they walk the potential winning run intentionally with two outs to avoid Prince Fielder, and instead get pinch-hitter Josh Hamilton, who hits a ball into the left-center field gap as the Rangers walk-off with the win. </li></Ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>Looking at the season thus far in its totality, there is one question that overwhelms everything else - how in God's name is it possible that a team playing this badly enters June only four games out of first place? </li><br><br>
<li>As bad as their record is, the Red Sox have actually been lucky to compile it. They're 22-29 - by runs scored and allowed, they should be 20-31 and 6 games out.</li><br><br>
<li>What went well this week - Eduardo Rodriguez made a stellar Major League debut. David Ortiz took a couple of days off, said he found and fixed something, and went 3-8 after coming back. Dustin Pedroia went deep twice. Hanley Ramirez went deep twice.</li><br><br>
<li>What went poorly this week - pretty much everything else.</li><br><br>
<li>I heard some comments about wanting the Red Sox to go get Jonathan Papelbon in the wake of yesterday's disaster. Given that the two runs that scored reached base on a Sandoval error and an intentional walk ordered by the manager, which brought up a great hitter who had been tormenting the Red Sox for the entire series, that one was not Uehara's fault.</li><br><br>
<li>Far too early to be too worried about Rusney Castillo (.222/.263/.222/.485, .45 runs created, .70 RC/25 outs), but he is not off to a good start in Boston this year.</li><br><br>
<li>I would not have believed this possible, but the Boston Red Sox enter the month of June with the worst run differential (-48) in the American League, and the third worst in all of MLB, ahead of only Milwaukee and Philadelphia. I thought the pitching would be ok, and it's been worse than I expected (though, to be fair, they were in the top half of the AL in runs allowed in May, which is about what I expected). But I expected the offense to be excellent, and it's been putrid.</li><br><br>
<li>The Red Sox scored 82 runs while going 10-19 in May. That works out to 2.83 runs/game. The second-worst AL scoring team in May, the Baltimore Orioles, outscored them by 13 (16%).</li><br><br>
<li>The Red Sox enter June with a 22-29 record and 195 runs scored. The dreadful Bobby Valentine-managed 2012 team entered June with a 26-25 record and 268 runs scored.</li><br><br>
<li>Coming next week - we go to Roget and list synonyms for "putrid"...</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Not a lot to choose from, here. Sandy Leon (.333/.429/.333/.762, .99 runs created, 6.16 RC/25 outs)
made the most of his two games, but it was just two games. Dustin Pedroia (.333/.333/.533/.867, 4.78 runs created, 5.69 RC/25 outs) was productive, not great, but going deep a couple of times. But the best, albeit somewhat less than spectacular, performance came from <b>Mookie Betts</b> (.333/.400/.444/.844, 5.12 runs created, 6.74 RC/25 outs).</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - The only reason that it wasn't an 0-7 road trip was that <b>Eduardo Rodriguez</b> made his Major League debut and was absolutely stellar in the process, apitching 7 2/3 scoreless innings, holding Texas to 3 hits (and 2 walks), while striking out seven.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/1/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.67<TD>(2)<TD>3.65<TD>(2)<TD>0.611<TD>(1)<TD>29<TD>19<TD>29<TD>19<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.29<TD>(7)<TD>3.86<TD>(4)<TD>0.548<TD>(2)<TD>28<TD>23<TD>31<TD>20<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.59<TD>(3)<TD>4.16<TD>(7)<TD>0.545<TD>(3)<TD>27<TD>22<TD>30<TD>19<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.15<TD>(1)<TD>4.67<TD>(14)<TD>0.545<TD>(4)<TD>28<TD>24<TD>23<TD>29<TD>-5<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.76<TD>(13)<TD>3.51<TD>(1)<TD>0.532<TD>(5)<TD>27<TD>24<TD>26<TD>25<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.47<TD>(6)<TD>4.27<TD>(10)<TD>0.521<TD>(6)<TD>27<TD>24<TD>26<TD>25<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.94<TD>(11)<TD>3.78<TD>(3)<TD>0.519<TD>(7)<TD>26<TD>25<TD>27<TD>24<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.5<TD>(5)<TD>4.42<TD>(11)<TD>0.508<TD>(8)<TD>25<TD>25<TD>24<TD>26<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.19<TD>(9)<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>0.502<TD>(9)<TD>27<TD>26<TD>20<TD>33<TD>-7<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.57<TD>(4)<TD>4.59<TD>(13)<TD>0.498<TD>(10)<TD>25<TD>26<TD>26<TD>25<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.12<TD>(10)<TD>4.13<TD>(6)<TD>0.498<TD>(11)<TD>26<TD>26<TD>28<TD>24<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.22<TD>(8)<TD>4.24<TD>(9)<TD>0.498<TD>(12)<TD>24<TD>25<TD>23<TD>26<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.72<TD>(14)<TD>4.08<TD>(5)<TD>0.458<TD>(13)<TD>23<TD>27<TD>24<TD>26<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.65<TD>(15)<TD>4.51<TD>(12)<TD>0.405<TD>(14)<TD>20<TD>29<TD>23<TD>26<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>3.82<TD>(12)<TD>4.76<TD>(15)<TD>0.401<TD>(15)<TD>20<TD>31<TD>22<TD>29<TD>2<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>99<TD>63<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>98<TD>64<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>98<TD>64<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>86<TD>76<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>99<TD>63<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>85<TD>77<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>85<TD>77<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.86<TD>(4)<TD>3<TD>(2)<TD>0.707<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.86<TD>(4)<TD>3.14<TD>(3)<TD>0.689<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>3.29<TD>(10)<TD>2.14<TD>(1)<TD>0.686<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.67<TD>(6)<TD>3.33<TD>(5)<TD>0.649<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>5.57<TD>(1)<TD>4<TD>(9)<TD>0.647<TD>(5)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.33<TD>(2)<TD>4.5<TD>(11)<TD>0.577<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.57<TD>(8)<TD>3.29<TD>(4)<TD>0.538<TD>(7)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>5.29<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>(13)<TD>0.525<TD>(8)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>5<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>4.13<TD>(10)<TD>0.486<TD>(9)<TD>4<TD>4<TD>4<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.33<TD>(9)<TD>3.5<TD>(6)<TD>0.478<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>3.13<TD>(11)<TD>3.75<TD>(8)<TD>0.417<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>5<TD>4<TD>4<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>2.83<TD>(12)<TD>3.67<TD>(7)<TD>0.384<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>2.71<TD>(13)<TD>5<TD>(13)<TD>0.246<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>6<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>2.6<TD>(14)<TD>5.8<TD>(15)<TD>0.187<TD>(14)<TD>1<TD>4<TD>1<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>2<TD>(15)<TD>4.57<TD>(12)<TD>0.181<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>6<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-56167978167088391922015-05-28T10:08:00.000-04:002015-05-28T10:08:59.817-04:00Bernie Sanders’s Dark Age EconomicsKevin D. Williamson, brilliant as always, on <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/418926/bernie-sanderss-dark-age-economics-kevin-d-williamson">Bernie Sanders’s Dark Age Economics</a>:<br />
<blockquote><i>Bernie Sanders, the Brooklyn socialist who represents Vermont in the Senate, generated a great deal of mirth on Tuesday when he wondered aloud how it is that a society with 23 kinds of deodorant and 18 kinds of sneakers has hungry children. Setting aside the fact that we must have hundreds of kinds of deodorant and thousands of choices of sneakers, Senator Sanders here communicates a double falsehood: The first falsehood is that the proliferation of choices in consumer goods is correlated with poverty, among children or anybody else, which is flatly at odds with practically all modern human experience. <b>The reality is precisely the opposite: Poverty is worst where consumers have the fewest choices</b>, e.g., in North Korea, the old Soviet Union, the socialist paradise that is modern Venezuela, etc. The second falsehood is that choice in consumer goods represents the loss of resources that might have gone to some other end — that if we had only one kind of sneaker, then there would be more food available for hungry children.<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
<br />
This is a very old and thoroughly discredited idea, one that dates back to Karl Marx and to the anti-capitalists who preceded him. It is a facet of the belief that free markets are irrational, and that if reason could be imposed on markets — which is to say, if reason could be imposed on free human beings — then enlightened planners could ensure that resources are directed toward their best use. <b>This line of thinking historically has led to concentration camps, gulags, firing squads, purges, and the like</b>, for a few reasons: The first is that free markets are not irrational; they are a reflection of what people actually value at a particular time relative to the other things that they might also value. <b>Real people simply want things that are different from what the planners want them to want, a predicament that can be solved only through violence and the threat of violence.</b> That is the first reason that this sort of planning leads to gulags. The second is that there are no enlightened planners; men such as Senator Sanders imagine themselves to be candidates for enlightened leadership, but put a whip in his hand and the gentleman from Vermont will turn out to be another thug in the long line of thugs who have cleaved to his faith. <b>The third reason that this sort of planning always works out poorly is that nobody knows what the best use of resources actually is; all that the would-be masters know is that they do not approve of the current deployment of resources</b>...</i></blockquote>
<br><br>
Read it all...Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-14274042814663475212015-05-25T14:39:00.000-04:002015-05-25T14:39:28.027-04:00Monday pythagorean - 5/25/2015
A 3-3 week, at home, is not great. But all things considered, this was a much better week than I envisioned it being on Friday night...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>5/19 - @Boston 4 - Texas 3 - In their return home after splitting 10 games on the road, the Sox score in the first, Wade Miley puts up his fourth good start in a row in May, and struggling Mike Napoli goes deep for the first time in a week, and Boston starts the homestand with a win.</li><br><br>
<li>5/20 - Texas 2 - @Boston 1 - The offensive struggles continue as Joe Kelly gives up single runs in the 2nd and 3rd, and that's all the Rangers would need, as Boston gathers 9 hits and 3 walks, and has the tying run in scoring position in the 6th, 7th and 9th, but only scores on a Xander Bogaerts solo HR.</li><br><br>
<li>5/21 - Texas 3 - @Boston 1 - Clay Buchholz fights through a tough first inning and ends up allowing only two earned runs in 7 1/3 innings. But that was more than enough as the Red Sox' offensive performance drops to an almost unbelievable 2.32 runs/game for the first 19 games of May.</li><br><br>
<li>5/22 - LAA Angels 12 - @Boston 5 - Following a nine-game stretch in which the Red Sox never score more than 4, and in which they average fewer than 2 runs per game, they manage to put up nine against the Angels. Unfortunately, Rick Porcello melted down in the 5th, and Boston had perhaps its worst inning of the season as the Angels score 9 runs against Porcello and two relievers in an inning that lasts nearly 40 minutes.</li><br><br>
<li>5/23 - @Boston 8 - LAA Angels 3 - Mike Napoli hit two two-out HR, and the Red Sox, who have struggled to score runs all month, finally score more than six. After all of the games with two runs or fewer, they score two runs in three consecutive innings. Steven Wright pitches well, and they break the three game losing streak.</li><br><br>
<li>5/24 - @Boston 6 - LAA Angels 1 - Mike Napoli, who was the source of such concern a week ago, goes deep for the fourth time in three games and fifth time on the week. Wade Miley is outstanding, allowing no baserunners through the first four innings, and finishing with 8 strong innings and fewer than 100 pitches, to get Boston even on the week.</li></Ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>If you had told me before the season started that, when Memorial Day arrived, the Red Sox would be 2 1/2 games out in the East, I would not have been too surprised. If you'd told me that they would be two games under .500, I would have been a little more surprised. If you had told me that they would have the second-worst run differential in the American League, I would have been shocked. But that's where they are.</li><br><br>
<li>Given the third item on that list, they're lucky about the second. And phenomenally lucky about the first.</li><br><br>
<li>The fifth inning of Friday night's game may or may not have been the season's nadir, but we can sure hope that it was. I got in my car to drive to Boston as the second man of the inning was coming to the plate. When I stopped in Stoneham to get gas, the Red Sox were changing pitchers. When I got off at Government Center, they were changing pitchers again. When I turned on to Park Street, the inning was finally ending. It was one of the most miserable rides I can ever remember...</li><br><br>
<li>There are 250 Major League baseball players with more than 45 at-bats in the month of May. 2491 of them have driven in at least one run. The one glaring exception - Hanley Ramirez.</li><br><br>
<li>Friday night, in game 42, we first saw the outfield that many of us expected, and hoped, to see - Ramirez in LF, Betts in CF, and Rusney Castillo in RF. The night was a disaster, but not because of the outfield, and I expect that to be the defensive alignment more often than not the rest of the way.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Goat of the Week</b> - Rick Porcello was given a 3-2 lead as they headed to the 5th inning on Friday night. He proceeded to walk the first two men and allow two singles and a double (plus a steal of third) wrapped around a ground out before being pulled. He allowed 7 runs in just 4 1/3 innings and spoiled the best offensive performance in over a week.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Many members of the offense continued to struggle, with the 3rd-best offensive performance (Pedroia) being fairly weak. But there were two notable exceptions. Xander Bogaerts (.455/.478/.682/1.160, 6.21 runs created, 12.94 RC/25 outs) put up the kind of performance that very often results in a Player of the Week award. Unfortunately for him, he did it over the same stretch that <b>Mike Napoli</b> hit (.429/.500/1.190/1.690, 9.75 runs created, 20.32 RC/25 outs, 5 HR, 10 RBI).</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - Other than Rick Porcello, the starting pitching was very good, and the best came from <b>Wade Miley</b>, who started, and won, two of the Sox' three victories on the week, pitching 15 innings and allowing only 3 runs for an ERA of 1.8.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/25/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.91<TD>(2)<TD>3.4<TD>(1)<TD>0.662<TD>(1)<TD>28<TD>15<TD>28<TD>15<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.49<TD>(4)<TD>3.89<TD>(4)<TD>0.565<TD>(2)<TD>25<TD>20<TD>29<TD>16<TD>4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.44<TD>(6)<TD>4.07<TD>(5)<TD>0.541<TD>(3)<TD>24<TD>21<TD>26<TD>19<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.13<TD>(1)<TD>4.7<TD>(14)<TD>0.54<TD>(4)<TD>25<TD>21<TD>20<TD>26<TD>-5<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.82<TD>(12)<TD>3.51<TD>(2)<TD>0.539<TD>(5)<TD>24<TD>21<TD>24<TD>21<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.58<TD>(3)<TD>4.28<TD>(7)<TD>0.531<TD>(6)<TD>23<TD>20<TD>25<TD>18<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.44<TD>(7)<TD>4.34<TD>(8)<TD>0.51<TD>(7)<TD>21<TD>20<TD>19<TD>22<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.45<TD>(5)<TD>4.52<TD>(12)<TD>0.493<TD>(8)<TD>22<TD>22<TD>21<TD>23<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.41<TD>(8)<TD>4.48<TD>(9)<TD>0.493<TD>(9)<TD>22<TD>22<TD>22<TD>22<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.8<TD>(13)<TD>3.89<TD>(3)<TD>0.489<TD>(10)<TD>22<TD>22<TD>22<TD>22<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.33<TD>(9)<TD>4.48<TD>(10)<TD>0.484<TD>(11)<TD>22<TD>24<TD>16<TD>30<TD>-6<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.33<TD>(10)<TD>4.49<TD>(11)<TD>0.483<TD>(12)<TD>21<TD>22<TD>20<TD>23<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.74<TD>(14)<TD>4.21<TD>(6)<TD>0.447<TD>(13)<TD>19<TD>24<TD>20<TD>23<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4<TD>(11)<TD>4.73<TD>(15)<TD>0.424<TD>(14)<TD>19<TD>25<TD>21<TD>23<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.59<TD>(15)<TD>4.59<TD>(13)<TD>0.389<TD>(15)<TD>16<TD>25<TD>19<TD>22<TD>3<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>105<TD>57<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>104<TD>58<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>94<TD>68<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>94<TD>68<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>86<TD>76<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>107<TD>55<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>3.8<TD>(11)<TD>1.8<TD>(1)<TD>0.797<TD>(1)<TD>4<TD>1<TD>4<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.86<TD>(10)<TD>2<TD>(2)<TD>0.769<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>6<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>6.33<TD>(1)<TD>3.5<TD>(6)<TD>0.747<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>5.2<TD>(2)<TD>3<TD>(3)<TD>0.732<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>1<TD>4<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.14<TD>(3)<TD>3.71<TD>(7)<TD>0.645<TD>(5)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.71<TD>(4)<TD>4.14<TD>(11)<TD>0.559<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.33<TD>(7)<TD>3.83<TD>(8)<TD>0.556<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.17<TD>(9)<TD>4<TD>(10)<TD>0.519<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>3<TD>(13)<TD>3.29<TD>(5)<TD>0.458<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.29<TD>(8)<TD>4.71<TD>(12)<TD>0.457<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>2.67<TD>(14)<TD>3.17<TD>(4)<TD>0.422<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.71<TD>(4)<TD>6<TD>(14)<TD>0.391<TD>(12)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.5<TD>(12)<TD>4.83<TD>(13)<TD>0.356<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.6<TD>(6)<TD>8.2<TD>(15)<TD>0.258<TD>(14)<TD>1<TD>4<TD>0<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>2.14<TD>(15)<TD>3.86<TD>(9)<TD>0.254<TD>(15)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-14219860705072385982015-05-18T08:11:00.000-04:002015-05-18T08:11:37.384-04:00Monday pythagorean - 5/18/2015So, since they've apparently fixed the pitching that everyone was so upset about, things must be just hunky-dory right now. Right?
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>5/11 - Boston 5 - @Oakland 4 (11) - Rick Porcello pitches fairly well, but three times the A's take a one-run lead, and three times the Red Sox come back, twice to tie, and then to take the lead. Boston's one-run lead in the 7th also does not hold up, but Pablo Sandoval leads off the top o f the 11th with a HR and Matt Barnes completes the game, pitching the last two innings and collecting his first Major League win. </li><br><br>
<li>5/12 - @Oakland 9 - Boston 2 - Justin Masterson gives up 3 in the first, 1 in the second and 2 more in the third before leaving the game and heading to the disabled list with "fatigue." </li><br><br>
<li>5/13 - Boston 2 - @Oakland 0 - Wade Miley outpitches one of the ALs leading Cy Young candidates, Sonny Gray, and needed to, as the Red Sox only 2 runs for the second consecutive day en route to winning two of three in Oakland.</li><br><br>
<li>5/14 - Boston 2 - @Seattle 1 - For the third consecutive day, the Red Sox score 2 runs. For the second consecutive day, they allow fewer, and despite the excellent performance by Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes garners his second win in four days, and the second win of his career, as Boston opens the series in Seattle with a win.</li><br><br>
<li>5/15 - @Seattle 2 - Boston 1 - The Red Sox offensive struggles continue, as they are held under three runs for the fourth time in five games on the week. They suffer a walk-off loss in the 9th, as Nelson Cruz is pitched to by Junichi Tazawa, and Cruz wins the battle.</li><br><br>
<li>5/16 - Boston 4 - @Seattle 2 - With Porcello pitching very well, the Red Sox get solo HR from Pablo Sandoval and David Ortiz, and add a victory over Felix Hernandez to their west coast results.</li><br><br>
<li>5/17 - @Seattle 5 - Boston 0 - Steven Wright fills in for the DLed Justin Masterson and is not ineffective, allowing 3 over five innings, but the Boston bats do absolutely nothing, and they leave Seattle with a 2-2 split.</li></Ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>The Good News - the Red Sox league ranking in runs allowed per game has almost caught up with their league ranking in runs scored per game! The Bad News - it's more because of the dismal performance of the latter than the scintillating performance of the former.</li><br><br>
<li>The pitching has been much improved over the past couple of weeks, but the offense has completely disappeared. They averaged 5.14 runs/game in 22 games in April. In 16 games in May, thus far, they're averaging just 2.375 runs/game. Just stunning.</li><br><br>
<li>While "fatigue" was the official diagnosis as Justin Masterson headed to the DL, one suspects it more on the part of John Farrell's and Ben Cherington's eyes than Masterson's arm and shoulder.</li><br><br>
<li>You all know that I'm not a huge fan of bashing managers for tactical decisions. And I am not a big fan of intentional walks. But giving Nelson Cruz a pitch to beat you with, with one on and two out in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game is not a smart thing to do.</li><br><br>
<li>How bad was the offense?<br><ul><li>They scored 16 runs in 7 games, 2.286 runs/game.</li><br><br>
<li>They hit .212/.280/.303/.583 (18.60 runs created, 2.41 RC/25 outs) as a team.</li><br><br>
<li>They scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 of their 7 games.</li></ul><br><br>
<li>How bad has May been?<br><ul><li>Mookie Betts is leading the team in Runs Created. He's hitting .210/.250/.452/.702 (7.64 runs created, 3.74 RC/25 outs) for the month...</li><br><br>
<li>You don't expect much offense behind the plate, but you need more than this: Catchers (.167/.196/.241/.437, 1.54 runs created, .80 RC/25 outs)</li><br><br>
<li>The "power positions", where you're paying big money to big-time offensive producers have not been quite that bad, but, position-adjusted, they may have been worse: Corner infielders, corner outfielders, DH (.202/.288/.322/.610, 22.36 runs created, 2.50 RC/25 outs)</li></ul><br><br>
<li>I'm concerned that I've seen some of this before...
<blockquote>David Ortiz (39) (.236/.322/.402/.723, 15.40 runs created, 3.67 RC/25 outs)<br>
Mike Napoli (33) (.162/.269/.282/.551, 8.06 runs created, 1.97 RC/25 outs)<br>
Jim Rice (36) ['89] (.245/.272/.374/.646, 14.07 runs created, 3.11 RC/25 outs)</blockquote><br>
Too early to pull the plug? Yes. Too early to start getting very worried? Not at all...</li><br><br>
<li>One suspects that young Mr. Barnes may have made his last trip on the Pawtucket shuttle for a while. It seems quite likely that he's one of the 10 best Major League pitchers in the organization right now.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - In his return from the DL, <b>Shane Victorino</b> (.353/.421/.588/1.009, 4.23 runs created, 9.61 RC/25 outs) had a very good week. Had he not, this award would have been vacant for the week.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - Wade Miley went 6 1/3 scoreless in a head-to-head matchup with Sonny Gray, albeit walking the tightrope the entire way. Matt Barnes picked up his first two Major League wins with four effective innings of relief over three appearances. Koji Uehara pitched 3 2/3 hitless innings while saving 3 of the Sox 4 wins on the week. But <b>Clay Buchholz</b> was dominant on Friday night, giving up only 1 solo HR and two other hits, while striking out 11 and walking none. That he didn't win had nothing to do with him, and everything to do with the offense.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/18/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>5.05<TD>(2)<TD>3.61<TD>(3)<TD>0.65<TD>(1)<TD>25<TD>13<TD>24<TD>14<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.45<TD>(7)<TD>3.84<TD>(4)<TD>0.567<TD>(2)<TD>22<TD>16<TD>25<TD>13<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.47<TD>(5)<TD>3.95<TD>(5)<TD>0.557<TD>(3)<TD>21<TD>17<TD>23<TD>15<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>4<TD>(11)<TD>3.56<TD>(2)<TD>0.553<TD>(4)<TD>22<TD>17<TD>21<TD>18<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.38<TD>(9)<TD>4<TD>(6)<TD>0.542<TD>(5)<TD>21<TD>18<TD>22<TD>17<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.13<TD>(1)<TD>4.87<TD>(14)<TD>0.523<TD>(6)<TD>20<TD>19<TD>17<TD>22<TD>-3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.62<TD>(15)<TD>3.49<TD>(1)<TD>0.517<TD>(7)<TD>19<TD>18<TD>19<TD>18<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.5<TD>(4)<TD>4.45<TD>(9)<TD>0.505<TD>(8)<TD>19<TD>19<TD>21<TD>17<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.46<TD>(6)<TD>4.43<TD>(8)<TD>0.503<TD>(9)<TD>18<TD>17<TD>16<TD>19<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.56<TD>(3)<TD>4.69<TD>(11)<TD>0.487<TD>(10)<TD>19<TD>20<TD>13<TD>26<TD>-6<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.78<TD>(14)<TD>4.11<TD>(7)<TD>0.462<TD>(11)<TD>17<TD>20<TD>17<TD>20<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.42<TD>(8)<TD>4.97<TD>(15)<TD>0.446<TD>(12)<TD>16<TD>20<TD>14<TD>22<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.16<TD>(10)<TD>4.68<TD>(10)<TD>0.446<TD>(13)<TD>17<TD>21<TD>16<TD>22<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>3.97<TD>(12)<TD>4.84<TD>(13)<TD>0.411<TD>(14)<TD>16<TD>22<TD>18<TD>20<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.88<TD>(13)<TD>4.74<TD>(12)<TD>0.41<TD>(15)<TD>14<TD>20<TD>17<TD>17<TD>3<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>107<TD>55<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>102<TD>60<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>98<TD>64<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>105<TD>57<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.2<TD>(12)<TD>1.6<TD>(1)<TD>0.78<TD>(1)<TD>4<TD>1<TD>4<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>5.33<TD>(3)<TD>2.83<TD>(3)<TD>0.761<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>4<TD>2<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.83<TD>(10)<TD>2.5<TD>(2)<TD>0.686<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>5.14<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>(6)<TD>0.613<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>5.5<TD>(1)<TD>4.33<TD>(8)<TD>0.607<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>5<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>(6)<TD>0.601<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.83<TD>(6)<TD>4.33<TD>(8)<TD>0.55<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>5<TD>1<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>5.43<TD>(2)<TD>5.14<TD>(12)<TD>0.525<TD>(8)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.17<TD>(7)<TD>4.33<TD>(8)<TD>0.482<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.17<TD>(7)<TD>4.5<TD>(11)<TD>0.465<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>5<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>3<TD>(14)<TD>3.67<TD>(5)<TD>0.409<TD>(11)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>4<TD>(9)<TD>5.29<TD>(13)<TD>0.375<TD>(12)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>1<TD>6<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>2.29<TD>(15)<TD>3.29<TD>(4)<TD>0.34<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>4<TD>3<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>3.14<TD>(13)<TD>5.29<TD>(13)<TD>0.279<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>3.33<TD>(11)<TD>5.67<TD>(15)<TD>0.275<TD>(15)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-83871199025877771042015-05-11T07:56:00.002-04:002015-05-11T07:56:53.038-04:00Monday pythagorean - 5/11/2015
If it's true, as I've said repeatedly, that winning 2 out of 3 makes for a good week and a great season, then you might think that losing 2 out of 3 would make for a bad week and a terrible season.
<br><br>
You would, of course, be right to think so...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:<br><br>
<ul><li>5/4 - Tampa 5 - @Boston 1 - Hanley Ramirez' running catch in the first inning is made just too close to the side wall in left field, and the subsequent collison ends up costing them two runs, as the ball pops out for a double, and Ramirez' services for most of the week. Clay Buchholz is mediocre, but the offense does nothing, as Tampa scores two before the Red Sox bat, and Boston trails for the entire game.li><br><br>
<li>5/5 - @Boston 2 - Tampa 0 - For the second time in the 2015 season, and the first time since opening day, the Red Sox get seven scoreless innings from their starter, as Porcello dominates the Rays. Backed by 2 solo HR from Mookie Betts, Boston wins 2-0.</li><br><br>
<li>5/6 - Tampa 5 - @Boston 3 - For just the second time in six games, the Red Sox score more than 2 runs, and just like the other time, they lose. Masterson is mediocre, not terrible, but the offense doesn't do much, and Boston loses its third consecutive serice.</li><br><br>
<li>5/8 - @Toronto 7 - Boston 0 - The Red Sox go down in order of the top of the first, and Toronto scores the winning run when the second batter of the game homers. Boston plays its 4th consecutive game without Hanley Ramirez, and also plays without David Ortiz, as they stupidly didn't let him serve his one-game suspension on a scheduled day-off against a tough left-handed pitcher a week earlier, and his obviously pointless appeal turned out to be...pointless.</li><br><br>
<li>5/9 - @Toronto 7 - Boston 1 - For the 2nd straight day, Boston does nothing right, as the starting pitching, bullpen, and offense vie for "most inept" honors. It's a close battle, but the offense wins. Again...</li><br><br>
<li>5/10 - Boston 6 - @Toronto 3 - Boston scores four runs in the top of the first, and scores more than 3 runs in a game for only the second time in 9 May games, and Clay Buchholz pitches well as the Red Sox salvage the last game of the series in Toronto.</li></Ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>There is no lamer or lazier sports-write trope than the sarcastic, "oh, that will certainly fix everything!" that greets all moves made by a struggling team. We heard or saw that several times this week, as the Red Sox made personnel moves in an attempt to prevent a severe slide from turning into catastrophe. It's a stupid comment for so many reasons, but there are two big ones. The first is this - no one suggested that any one of these moves would fix everything. And the second is that, regardless of whether it fixes everything or not, if it's a move worth doing, then it should be done.</li><br><br>
<li>Should they have fired Juan Nieves? I have no idea. I will say this, though - when it happened, there was a lot of snickering commentary, to the effect that they just have rotten pitchers, and how could anyone expect him to have done any better? Here's a little context for that - regardless of what you think of the particular pitchers on the Red Sox staff right now, the five starters all have Major League track records, and each one of them currently has a worse ERA than their career average ERA, by an average of 1.67 runs/9 innings. You can say that it's not Juan Nieves' fault, and you're almost certainly right in doing so, while at the same time saying, "we cannot continue this way - something needs to change." Does that make Nieves a scapegoat? Call it that if you like, but again, if something's not working, you need to change things.</li><br><br>
<li>As the skid continued this week, people continued to hammer the pitchers. The pitching wasn't great, but it was nowhere near as bad as the offensive performances. They allowed 4.5 runs/game, which was 11th in the AL. They scored 2.167, which was 14th. Just dismal.</li><br><br>
<li>I don't want to dislike Steve Lyons, but the more he talks, the more I want to hit him. He never says anything that isn't trite, obvious, and wrong. And he won't shut up...</li><br><br>
<li>I am rarely going to complain about David Ortiz. He is what he is, and what he is, and has been, is an enormous asset for the Boston Red Sox. But sometimes, there are things that he does that are infuriating. The constant whining about balls and strike calls is irritating, at best, and getting tossed for complaining, and then suspended for bumping an umpire, are both parts of the package that we could happily live without. But this is the part that's not acceptable, and it's partly David, and it's partly John Farrell. You need to recognize that there is no way on God's green earth that the one-game suspension is going to get overturned. None. Zip, zero, nada. So you can either choose to serve it at a time that's best for the club, or you can take your chances and serve it when the appeal is denied. The appeal was denied on Friday, so instead of serving it during a game that <i>the team didn't have him in the lineup anyway</i> two weeks ago, he ended up serving it on Friday night, against a tough right-handed pitcher, with Hanley Ramirez out of the lineup due to injury. And they got shut out. Would his presence have made a difference? Who knows. They lost 7-0, but it was close and competitive until late, and there were a couple of opportunities in the middle of the game where a hit might have made a difference. In any event, instead of choosing good timing for an Ortiz off-day, his pigheadedness and their refusal to address the matter of reality with him left the timing of his missed game up to MLB rather than themselves, and that's just stupid.</li><br><br>
<li>Down below, you'll see that the player of the week had a good and worthy week. What you won't see is the staggering gap between the best and second-best players on the team this week. So I'll tell you here that the second-best performance [Dustin Pedroia (.238/.320/.286/.606, 2.50 runs created, 3.68 RC/25 outs)] and third-best [Mike Napoli (.190/.292/.381/.673, 2.49 runs created, 3.66 RC/25 outs)] offensive performances were both bad. That should give you an idea as to how putrid the rest of the offensive performances were.</li><br><br>
<li>I remain optimistic that Blake Swihart is going to be a very good offensive catcher in the Majors. But he is not off to a good start.</li><br><br>
<li>Boston catchers, 2015 - .184/.288/.243/.531, 6.49 runs created, 1.80 RC/25 outs. Ugh.</li><br><br>
<li>Non-Betts/Ramirez outfielders (Victorino, Holt, Craig, Nava, Bradley) - (.190/.290/.256/.547, 15.50 runs created, 2.36 RC/25 outs). Ugh. (Obviously, that's only one game for Bradley, and Holt and Nava have played some infield, but still. Ugh.) <i>"Where have you gone, Rusney Castillo, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you..."</i></li><br><br>
<li>From the Things-We-Knew-We-Needed-To-Worry-About Department: David Ortiz (.235/.328/.402/.730, 12.72 runs created, 3.74 RC/25 outs). Slow start, or the beginning of the increase of the decline?</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Unlike everyone else on the team, <b>Mookie Betts</b> (.320/.370/.840/1.210, 7.25 runs created, 10.65 RC/25 outs) had a really good week. We've seen better Player of the Week performances, but I don't that we've ever seen a bigger gap between the Player of the Week and everyone else than we saw this week.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - Despite the offensive ineptitude, they managed to win two games this week, in one of which they did manage to score 6 runs. The other they won because <b>Rick Porcello</b> was absolutely dominant, striking out six and walking none while shutting out the Rays for seven innings, and pitching Boston to a win on a day on which the sole source of offense was two Mookie Betts' solo HR.</li></ul>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/11/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>5.03<TD>(2)<TD>3.52<TD>(2)<TD>0.658<TD>(1)<TD>20<TD>11<TD>20<TD>11<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.66<TD>(5)<TD>3.72<TD>(3)<TD>0.601<TD>(2)<TD>19<TD>13<TD>20<TD>12<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>4.38<TD>(8)<TD>3.75<TD>(4)<TD>0.57<TD>(3)<TD>18<TD>14<TD>20<TD>12<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.38<TD>(1)<TD>4.78<TD>(12)<TD>0.553<TD>(4)<TD>18<TD>14<TD>16<TD>16<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.72<TD>(4)<TD>4.22<TD>(7)<TD>0.551<TD>(5)<TD>18<TD>14<TD>18<TD>14<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.78<TD>(12)<TD>3.47<TD>(1)<TD>0.539<TD>(6)<TD>17<TD>15<TD>17<TD>15<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4.76<TD>(3)<TD>4.59<TD>(10)<TD>0.517<TD>(7)<TD>15<TD>14<TD>13<TD>16<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.31<TD>(10)<TD>4.16<TD>(6)<TD>0.517<TD>(7)<TD>17<TD>15<TD>19<TD>13<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.64<TD>(6)<TD>4.73<TD>(11)<TD>0.491<TD>(9)<TD>16<TD>17<TD>12<TD>21<TD>-4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.69<TD>(14)<TD>3.78<TD>(5)<TD>0.489<TD>(10)<TD>16<TD>16<TD>15<TD>17<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.47<TD>(7)<TD>5.1<TD>(14)<TD>0.44<TD>(11)<TD>13<TD>17<TD>11<TD>19<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.77<TD>(13)<TD>4.42<TD>(8)<TD>0.428<TD>(12)<TD>13<TD>18<TD>14<TD>17<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3.87<TD>(11)<TD>4.58<TD>(9)<TD>0.424<TD>(13)<TD>13<TD>18<TD>13<TD>18<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.35<TD>(9)<TD>5.19<TD>(15)<TD>0.42<TD>(14)<TD>13<TD>18<TD>14<TD>17<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.54<TD>(15)<TD>4.82<TD>(13)<TD>0.362<TD>(15)<TD>10<TD>18<TD>12<TD>16<TD>2<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>105<TD>57<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>101<TD>61<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>101<TD>61<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>96<TD>66<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>106<TD>56<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>98<TD>64<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>94<TD>68<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>4.67<TD>(4)<TD>2.5<TD>(2)<TD>0.758<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>4<TD>2<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>4.29<TD>(7)<TD>2.43<TD>(1)<TD>0.739<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>6.57<TD>(1)<TD>4.14<TD>(7)<TD>0.699<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>3.17<TD>(4)<TD>0.623<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.43<TD>(6)<TD>3.57<TD>(5)<TD>0.597<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>5<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.29<TD>(11)<TD>2.86<TD>(3)<TD>0.564<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.67<TD>(4)<TD>4.33<TD>(9)<TD>0.534<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>4.83<TD>(3)<TD>4.5<TD>(11)<TD>0.533<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>5.33<TD>(2)<TD>5.5<TD>(14)<TD>0.486<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>3.57<TD>(9)<TD>3.71<TD>(6)<TD>0.482<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>4<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>3.5<TD>(10)<TD>4.33<TD>(9)<TD>0.404<TD>(11)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>3<TD>(13)<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>0.354<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>3.14<TD>(12)<TD>6.14<TD>(15)<TD>0.227<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>6<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>2.17<TD>(14)<TD>4.5<TD>(11)<TD>0.208<TD>(14)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>2.14<TD>(15)<TD>4.57<TD>(13)<TD>0.2<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>6<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-56604309807075093862015-05-04T08:49:00.000-04:002015-05-04T08:49:36.217-04:00Monday pythagorean - 5/4/2015
Challenged to write a sad story in the fewest possible words, Ernest Hemingway is reported to have written the following: "For Sale. Baby Shoes. Never Used." One must applaud his effort, but I can top it. The saddest possible six word short story is clearly, "Swept. At Home. By the Yankees..."
<br><br>
The Week That Was:
<br><br>
<ul><li>4/27 - @Boston 6 - Toronto 5. The Red Sox tie it in the 8th and walk off with a win in the ninth on a Mookie Betts single. The last series they play in April starts the same as all of the others have started - with a win.</li><br><br>
<li>4/28 - Toronto 11 - @Boston 8. Clay Buchholz gets a nice cushion, as the Red Sox take a 4-0 lead in the second, and then melts down, giving up five runs, four earned, before leaving with 2 outs in the third, as the best Boston offensive performance of the week is spoiled by the least effective starting pitching performance of the week.</li><br><br>
<li>4/29 - @Boston 4 - Toronto 1. In desperate need of a strong pitching performance, the Red Sox get one as Rick Porcello dominates the Blue Jays, retiring 13 Jays' batters in a row from the 2nd through the 7th innings.</li><br><br>
<li>5/1 - NY Yankees 3 - @Boston 2. The string of series-opening wins ends on the 1st day of May as Justin Masterson follows Porcello's gem with a strong 6 innings, but gets no run support, and Tazawa gives up number 660 to Alex Rodriguez in the 8th for the loss.</li><br><br>
<li>5/2 - NY Yankees 4 - @Boston 2. Blake Swihart makes his Major League debut and Wade Miley pitches well, but the offense does very little and the Red Sox fall to the Yankees for the second consecutive day.</li><br><br>
<li>5/3 - New York 8 - @Boston 5. The Red Sox score five runs in the 6th inning, more than they had scored in the first two games of the series combined, but it's too little and too late, as they were already down 8-0 entering the inning. They get they tying run to the plate in the 6th, and the winning run to the plate in the 9th, but don't score again.</li></ul><br><br>
<br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>Sometimes you have a busy weekend and miss all of the games, and say, "I wish I'd been able to see that." And sometimes, you say, "Thank God I was busy elsewhere." This past weekend was obviously the latter.</li><br><br>
<li>The Master Plan for 2015 said that the Red Sox' starting catcher would be Christian Vazquez, and that he'd be backed up by Ryan Hanigan. On Saturday, the Blake Swihart era in Boston began, as Hanigan joined Vazquez on the 60-day DL. Plans, as the poet Burns was known to note, "gang aft agley..."</li><br><br>
<li>It was a mediocre week offensively, as the Red Sox averaged 4.5 runs/game, seventh in the AL, and were held to two runs twice. And it seems odd that the top five hitters in the lineup could be so effective and yet the results could be so poor. Betts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Ramirez and Sandoval had an excellent week, hitting (.357/.408/.539/.947, 23.99 runs created, 7.50 RC/25 outs) as a group. Unfortunately, the rest of the lineup consisted of pitchers and NL shortstops. At least, that's what the numbers - (.163/.258/.267/.525, 4.94 runs created, 1.62 RC/25 outs) - would suggest.</li><br><br>
<li>For all of the complaining about the starting pitching (which has not been good) they got three consecutive strong starts, yet managed to go only 1-2 over that stretch.</li><br><br>
<li>There was obviously a lot of bad timing in the poor 2-4 record. In two of the four losses, they scored five runs or more. In the other two, they allowed four or fewer.</li><br><br>
<li>There was some bad timing in the offense, too. Their raw offensive numbers - hits, walks, HR, etc., suggests that they "created" just about 29 runs. They ended up actually scoring 27.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - The numbers say that David Ortiz (.409/.462/.545/1.007, 5.14 runs created, 8.56 RC/25 outs) had a very good week and that Dustin Pedroia (.348/.444/.478/.923, 5.06 runs created, 8.43 RC/25 outs) had a very good week, but that <b>Pablo Sandoval</b>(.478/.478/.696/1.174, 6.45 runs created, 13.45 RC/25 outs) had the best week.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - On the heels of an 11-8 loss to the Blue Jays, featuring yet another disastrous <3 inning start, this time from Clay Buchholz, the cries about the starting pitching, and its impact on the bullpen, were deafening. <b>Rick Porcello</b> allowed only one run over seven innings, and set down 13 Blue Jays' hitters in a row at one point, sending the team into an off-day on the heels of a 4-1 win.</li></ul><br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/4/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>5.12<TD>(3)<TD>3.32<TD>(1)<TD>0.688<TD>(1)<TD>17<TD>8<TD>16<TD>9<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>5<TD>(5)<TD>3.52<TD>(2)<TD>0.655<TD>(2)<TD>16<TD>9<TD>18<TD>7<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.96<TD>(6)<TD>3.72<TD>(3)<TD>0.629<TD>(3)<TD>16<TD>9<TD>16<TD>9<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>5.04<TD>(4)<TD>4.35<TD>(8)<TD>0.567<TD>(4)<TD>15<TD>11<TD>11<TD>15<TD>-4<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>5.22<TD>(2)<TD>4.7<TD>(9)<TD>0.548<TD>(5)<TD>13<TD>10<TD>12<TD>11<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.5<TD>(8)<TD>4.12<TD>(6)<TD>0.541<TD>(6)<TD>14<TD>12<TD>17<TD>9<TD>3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.54<TD>(1)<TD>5.31<TD>(14)<TD>0.519<TD>(7)<TD>14<TD>12<TD>12<TD>14<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.2<TD>(10)<TD>4.24<TD>(7)<TD>0.496<TD>(8)<TD>12<TD>13<TD>13<TD>12<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.64<TD>(14)<TD>3.76<TD>(4)<TD>0.485<TD>(9)<TD>12<TD>13<TD>13<TD>12<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.8<TD>(11)<TD>4.04<TD>(5)<TD>0.472<TD>(10)<TD>12<TD>13<TD>11<TD>14<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.88<TD>(7)<TD>5.36<TD>(15)<TD>0.457<TD>(11)<TD>11<TD>14<TD>12<TD>13<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.25<TD>(9)<TD>5<TD>(13)<TD>0.426<TD>(12)<TD>10<TD>14<TD>9<TD>15<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.68<TD>(13)<TD>4.72<TD>(10)<TD>0.388<TD>(13)<TD>10<TD>15<TD>10<TD>15<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3.71<TD>(12)<TD>4.88<TD>(11)<TD>0.377<TD>(14)<TD>9<TD>15<TD>8<TD>16<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.18<TD>(15)<TD>4.91<TD>(12)<TD>0.311<TD>(15)<TD>7<TD>15<TD>8<TD>14<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>117<TD>45<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>106<TD>56<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>104<TD>58<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>104<TD>58<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>85<TD>77<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>110<TD>52<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>108<TD>54<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>102<TD>60<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>91<TD>71<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>88<TD>74<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>4<TD>(9)<TD>1.5<TD>(1)<TD>0.858<TD>(1)<TD>3<TD>1<TD>3<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>7.86<TD>(1)<TD>3.43<TD>(4)<TD>0.82<TD>(2)<TD>6<TD>1<TD>7<TD>0<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>6.43<TD>(2)<TD>3.57<TD>(6)<TD>0.746<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>4.17<TD>(8)<TD>2.5<TD>(2)<TD>0.718<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>5.57<TD>(5)<TD>3.43<TD>(4)<TD>0.709<TD>(5)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>5.83<TD>(4)<TD>4.67<TD>(10)<TD>0.601<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>6.29<TD>(3)<TD>6<TD>(13)<TD>0.521<TD>(7)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>3.86<TD>(10)<TD>4.43<TD>(8)<TD>0.437<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>4<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.57<TD>(11)<TD>4.14<TD>(7)<TD>0.433<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.5<TD>(7)<TD>5.33<TD>(12)<TD>0.423<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>5.43<TD>(6)<TD>7<TD>(14)<TD>0.386<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.33<TD>(12)<TD>4.5<TD>(9)<TD>0.366<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3<TD>(13)<TD>5.17<TD>(11)<TD>0.27<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>1.67<TD>(15)<TD>3<TD>(3)<TD>0.254<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>2<TD>(14)<TD>7.8<TD>(15)<TD>0.077<TD>(15)<TD>0<TD>5<TD>0<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-33364136640161256872015-04-27T08:07:00.002-04:002015-04-27T08:07:32.836-04:00Monday pythagorean, 4/27/2015
The first poor week of the season, as they lose back-to-back series on the road in the division en route to a 3-4 week...
The Week That Was:
<ul><li>4/20 - @Boston 7 - Baltimore 1 - In the rain on Patriots' Day, Justin Masterson pitches well and Wei-yin Chen does not. Boston breaks a 1-1 tie with four in the 3rd, making it a 5-1 game, with all five of Boston's runs being unearned, and the Red Sox eventually win a rain-shortened seven inning game.</li><br><br>
<li>4/21 - Boston 1 - @Tampa 0 - Wade Miley's start is significantly better than his last one, as he allows no runs in 5 2/3, Alexi Ogando comes in to get the last out of the 6th with the bases loaded, and the Red Sox score yet another unearned run on yet another opponent error for Miley's first win in a Boston uniform.</li><br><br>
<li>4/22 - @Tampa 7 - Boston 5 - Joe Kelly has an effective start as the Red Sox take a 5-1 lead into the bottom of the 6th. But he struggles and the bullpen comes in to pour gas on the fire, as Tampa scores four in the 6th and two more in the 7th.</li><br><br>
<li>4/23 - @Tampa 2 - Boston 1 - The Red Sox lose their first series of the year as the offense fails to support a strong effort from Clay Buchholz. Each team scores one in the 2nd, and the Rays walk-off with another in the 9th.</li><br><br>
<li>4/24 - Boston 7 - @Baltimore 5 - A mediocre performance from Rick Porcello is overcome by the offense, as Ortiz (3 runs) and Ramirez go back-to-back in the 5th, and then Brock Holt breaks a 4-4 tie with a 3-run HR in the 8th, as Boston continues its streak of winning the first game of each series it has played in 2015.</li><br><br>
<li>4/25 - @Baltimore 5 - Boston 4 (10) - In a game that they've no business winning, Boston is aided by Baltimore base-running and defensive lapses as they tie it in the 9th, and then take a 4-3 lead on a Xander Bogaerts HR in the top of the 10th. But then Koji Uehara comes in to close it out, and gives up a lead-off triple, aided by an Allen Craig diving catch attempt, a sacrifice fly and a HR to lose the game. </li><br><br>
<li>4/26 - @Baltimore 18 - Boston 7 - Pablo Sandoval hits his first Boston HR and Hanley Ramirez hits two more, but The Red Sox get another disaster start from Wade Miley as things start badly and go downhill from there.</li></ul><br><br>
<br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...<br><br>
<ul><li>Three times this week, the Red Sox scored 7 runs in a game. In those games, in which they were 2-1, they were outscored by three.</li><br><br>
<li>Three times, they had a starter go at least five and allow only fewer than two runs. They were 2-1 in those two games.</li><br><br>
<li>So they were 1-3 when scoring fewer than 7 runs. They were 1-4 when allowing more than 1 run.</li><br><br>
<li>On the positive front - Pablo Sandoval and Mike Napoli each hit their first home runs of the 2015 season.</li><br><br>
<li>Hanley Ramirez continues to hit, with three more HR this week, bringing his total to eight on the young season.</li><br><br>
<li>I fully expect the "we need an Ace! We need more starting pitching!" brigade to be in full-voice mode this morning on the heels of another disaster start from Mr. Miley. It's worth noting, though, that in the first six games of the week, the starters had gone at least five, and averaged almost six, with an ERA of 3.63. That should be plenty good enough for this team, but they combined untimely offense (2-1 loss on Thursday) and untimely bullpen problems (4-3 loss on Saturday) to put up an under .500 week that could easily have been better. </li><br><br>
<li>Yes, they were outscored by six runs on the week, but they were outscored by 11 on Sunday in one disaster start. They outscored the opposition by five in going 3-3 during the first six games of the week, and each of the three losses could have easily been a win.</li><br><br>
<li>Nothing has happened yet to alleviate my fear that the Uehara re-signing was a mistake. I didn't dislike the signing, but felt uneasy, worried that it was more of a "wow, he was great in 2013 and we love him" move than a cold-hearted, "it's not personal, just business" move. Belichick wouldn't have done it. So it was concerning to listen to Don and Jerry discussing his velocity during the Adam Jones at-bat in the 10th inning on Saturday night, and while feelings of impending doom are not always and inevitably followed by said doom arriving, it was disturbing and disappointing to see that inning go so badly so quickly. </li><br><br>
<li>It's one thing for a pitcher to be up-and-down. A team doesn't need everyone of its starters to be great every time out. But what will kill you is the disaster starts, a start where a starter give up 7 or more without getting out of the third inning. Wade Miley's done that in two of his last three starts.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - The Brock Star [Brock Holt (.364/.533/.636/1.170, 3.79 runs created, 11.85 RC/25 outs)] had another great week as he's off to another tremendous start. But the player of the week award goes to the big money free agent who was brought in to hit and is doing so, <b>Hanley Ramirez</b> (.391/.440/.783/1.223, 7.16 runs created, 12.78 RC/25 outs)</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - The best start of the week came from Clay Buchholz, who allowed only one run in six innings in a loss in Tampa on Wednesday. But <b>Justin Masterson</b> was effective twice, allowing four runs in 12 innings, while coming one Uehara breakdown away from leading Boston to two wins vs. division rival and defending AL East champions Baltimore.</li></ul><br><br>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/27/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.94<TD>(5)<TD>3.28<TD>(1)<TD>0.68<TD>(1)<TD>12<TD>6<TD>12<TD>6<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5.21<TD>(3)<TD>4.11<TD>(7)<TD>0.607<TD>(2)<TD>12<TD>7<TD>11<TD>8<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>4.74<TD>(7)<TD>4<TD>(4)<TD>0.577<TD>(3)<TD>11<TD>8<TD>13<TD>6<TD>2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.8<TD>(6)<TD>4.25<TD>(9)<TD>0.555<TD>(4)<TD>11<TD>9<TD>8<TD>12<TD>-3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>3.89<TD>(11)<TD>3.56<TD>(2)<TD>0.541<TD>(5)<TD>10<TD>8<TD>11<TD>7<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>4.26<TD>(8)<TD>4<TD>(4)<TD>0.529<TD>(6)<TD>10<TD>9<TD>11<TD>8<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.26<TD>(2)<TD>5.05<TD>(13)<TD>0.519<TD>(7)<TD>10<TD>9<TD>9<TD>10<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>5.47<TD>(1)<TD>5.37<TD>(14)<TD>0.509<TD>(8)<TD>10<TD>9<TD>9<TD>10<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.95<TD>(9)<TD>3.89<TD>(3)<TD>0.506<TD>(9)<TD>10<TD>9<TD>9<TD>10<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>5<TD>(4)<TD>5.37<TD>(14)<TD>0.468<TD>(10)<TD>9<TD>10<TD>10<TD>9<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.76<TD>(12)<TD>4.18<TD>(8)<TD>0.453<TD>(11)<TD>8<TD>9<TD>6<TD>11<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.53<TD>(14)<TD>4.06<TD>(6)<TD>0.436<TD>(12)<TD>7<TD>10<TD>8<TD>9<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3.94<TD>(10)<TD>4.78<TD>(11)<TD>0.413<TD>(13)<TD>7<TD>11<TD>7<TD>11<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.72<TD>(13)<TD>4.94<TD>(12)<TD>0.373<TD>(14)<TD>7<TD>11<TD>7<TD>11<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>3.33<TD>(15)<TD>4.5<TD>(10)<TD>0.366<TD>(15)<TD>7<TD>11<TD>8<TD>10<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>111<TD>51<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>108<TD>54<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>99<TD>63<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>94<TD>68<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>94<TD>68<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>110<TD>52<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>98<TD>64<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>89<TD>73<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>87<TD>75<TD>
</TABLE>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>5<TD>(3)<TD>2.17<TD>(1)<TD>0.822<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5<TD>(3)<TD>3.14<TD>(3)<TD>0.7<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>6<TD>(2)<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>0.677<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>1<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.57<TD>(7)<TD>3.43<TD>(5)<TD>0.629<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.67<TD>(11)<TD>2.83<TD>(2)<TD>0.616<TD>(5)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>4.83<TD>(6)<TD>4.17<TD>(9)<TD>0.567<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>3.5<TD>(12)<TD>3.17<TD>(4)<TD>0.546<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4<TD>(10)<TD>4<TD>(7)<TD>0.5<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>2<TD>2<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>3.5<TD>(12)<TD>3.67<TD>(6)<TD>0.479<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>6.14<TD>(1)<TD>7<TD>(15)<TD>0.441<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5<TD>(3)<TD>5.83<TD>(12)<TD>0.43<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.57<TD>(7)<TD>5.43<TD>(11)<TD>0.422<TD>(12)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.33<TD>(14)<TD>4.5<TD>(10)<TD>0.366<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4.14<TD>(9)<TD>6<TD>(14)<TD>0.337<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>2<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>3.14<TD>(15)<TD>5.86<TD>(13)<TD>0.242<TD>(15)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>3<TD>4<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-45568903414289983262015-04-20T07:23:00.001-04:002015-04-20T07:31:19.956-04:00Monday pythagorean - 4/20/2015
When you score runs and stop the other team from scoring, you win games. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, this was a week in which they failed to score runs or stop the other team from scoring, at least on too many occasions...
<br><br>
The Week That Was:
<ul><li>4/13 - @Boston 9 - Washington 4. Tom Brady throws out the first pitch as the Red Sox open at Fenway on a beautiful day in Boston. Mookie Betts makes a HR-saving catch, steals 2nd and 3rd on the same play with the defense shifted against Ortiz, scores the first run of the day, and then hit a three-run HR to give Boston a 4-0 lead, all before the 2nd inning ends.</li><br><br>
<li>4/14 - @Boston 8 - Washington 7. The Red Sox take a 5-1 lead with Justin Masterson outpitching Steven Strasburg through four innings. Masterson falls apart in the fifth, and Washington goes up 7-5. The Nationals' defense then falls apart, for the second day in a row, as Boston scores three runs in the 8th on a combination of walks and errors and defensive mental breakdowns to take the 8-7 lead which Koji Uehara, in his first appearance of the season, would protect. </li><br><br>
<li>4/15 - Washington 10 - @Boston 5. Wade Miley gives up two in the first, then six more in the third, which he didn't get through, as Boston spends the entire afternoon trying - unsuccessfully - to come from behind. The 2 1/3 inning stint is the 3rd shortest start of Miley's MLB career.</li><br><br>
<li>4/17 - @Boston 3 - Baltimore 2. Boston catches a break when Ubaldo Jimenez is thrown out of the game after intentionally hitting Pablo Sandoval in the 4th, Ryan Hanigan's 2-run HR ties the game in the 7th, and they collect their first walk-off win of the season when Xander Bogaert's bloop hit to right drives in Mike Napoli in the 9th.</li><br><br>
<li>4/18 - Baltimore 4 - @Boston 1. Clay Buchholz allows only two runs in six innings of work, but the Boston offense does nothing, and the Robbie Ross' gives up a two-run HR in the top of the 9th to put it away for the Orioles.</li><br><br>
<li>4/19 - Baltimore 8 - @Boston 3. For the third consecutive game, the Red Sox fall behind the Orioles 2-0, but Hanley Ramirez gives Boston the lead with a 3-run HR in the bottom of the first. The lead is short-lived as Porcello gives up another run in the top of the 2nd, then 2 more in the 5th and 3 more in the 6th for his first bad outing of the year, as the Sox lose consecutives games for the first time and fail to win a series for the first time on the young season.</li></ul>
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Thoughts and commentary...
<ul><li>While down 2-1 against the Orioles, the Red Sox have not yet lost the series, as they played the wraparound Patriots' Day game this morning, weather permitting.</li><br><br>
<li>From Monday: "[W]e've got an early leader in the Player Of The Week Competition. So far, Betts has a 3-run HR, 2 runs scored, 1 walk, 1 hit and 2 stolen bases. And a 2-run catch. And they're not out of the 2nd inning yet..." Unfortunately for him (and the team), what Mookie's done best so far is hit line drives to outfielders on the warning track.</li><br><br>
<li>If you're concerned about Hanley Ramirez' defense in left field, you can find lots of people to join you in that concern, and commiserate with you, and spend time beating up on Hanley and his defense and his attitude with you. But you'll find them elsewhere, not here. As far as I'm concerned, Hanley's here to hit, and to catch the easy fly balls in left, and to track down and pick up and throw to second on the rest of them. Anything that goes beyond that does not interest me in the slightest.</li><br><br>
<li>Nothing good comes of competing with Washington on April 15.</li><br><br>
<li>There's been a lot of grousing - much of it well deserved - about the starting pitching during the second trip through the rotation. But they've lost 2-3 to Baltimore because they haven't hit. The Orioles have outscored them 14-7. They've gotten good pitching in 2 of the 3 games. Buchholz gave up two runs in six innings on Saturday, and Boston lost 4-1.</li>
<br><br>
<li>There has also been concern expressed about the bullpen. Thus far the relief pitching has been very good, or better. </li><br><br>
<li>Bad weeks (offense): Mike Napoli (.217/.280/.304/.584, 2.01 runs created, 2.79 RC/25 outs), Xander Bogaerts (.222/.300/.222/.522, 1.31 runs created, 2.34 RC/25 outs), Shane Victorino (.182/.400/.182/.582, 1.05 runs created, 2.62 RC/25 outs), Daniel Nava (.100/.100/.100/.200, -.72 runs created, -1.65 RC/25 outs). Yeah, Sandy Leon and Ryan Hanigan and Allen Craig were bad, too, but I expect that and will rarely bother pointing it out.</li><br><br>
<li>That was a quick hook on Jimenez on Friday night. And probably benefitted the Red Sox. I didn't have much of a problem with it, though. I thought that he intentionally threw at Sandoval, and it was close to his head. It was the kind of pitch that should lead to ejections, but usually doesn't. The fact that it usually doesn't is what leads me to label it both quick and questionable. If umpires consistently tossed guys for intentional pitches at the shoulder and head, I'd be fine with it.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Goat of the Week</b> - Justin Masterson was aiming for this, giving up 7 runs in just 4 2/3 innings, but <b>Wade Miley</b> matched him in runs while getting only half the number of outs.</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - On a per-at-bat basis, it was Brock Holt (.412/.412/.471/.882, 3.29 runs created, 8.22 RC/25 outs), followed by David Ortiz (.375/.474/.625/1.099, 3.72 runs created, 7.75 RC/25 outs) (when he wasn't getting tossed for whining about calls.) For best cumulative performance, and Player of the Week, it's <b>Dustin Pedroia</b>(.333/.409/.556/.965, 3.88 runs created, 6.92 RC/25 outs).</li><br><br>
<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - The bullpen was, on the whole, effective, albeit with no standout performances. The starters, on the whole, were not, with a couple of performances that stood out. But not for good reasons. And there is no pitcher awarded this week.</li></ul><br><br>
<br><br><br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/19/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>5.67<TD>(1)<TD>2.92<TD>(1)<TD>0.771<TD>(1)<TD>9<TD>3<TD>10<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>5.67<TD>(1)<TD>3.33<TD>(3)<TD>0.725<TD>(2)<TD>9<TD>3<TD>9<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>5.15<TD>(6)<TD>3.31<TD>(2)<TD>0.692<TD>(3)<TD>9<TD>4<TD>6<TD>7<TD>-3<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>5.08<TD>(7)<TD>4.42<TD>(7)<TD>0.564<TD>(4)<TD>7<TD>5<TD>7<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>5.38<TD>(3)<TD>4.69<TD>(9)<TD>0.563<TD>(5)<TD>7<TD>6<TD>6<TD>7<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5.33<TD>(4)<TD>4.67<TD>(8)<TD>0.561<TD>(6)<TD>7<TD>5<TD>6<TD>6<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>5.25<TD>(5)<TD>5.33<TD>(15)<TD>0.493<TD>(7)<TD>6<TD>6<TD>7<TD>5<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>3.58<TD>(11)<TD>4.17<TD>(5)<TD>0.431<TD>(8)<TD>5<TD>7<TD>5<TD>7<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>2.83<TD>(15)<TD>3.33<TD>(3)<TD>0.426<TD>(9)<TD>5<TD>7<TD>6<TD>6<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.92<TD>(8)<TD>4.85<TD>(11)<TD>0.405<TD>(10)<TD>5<TD>8<TD>6<TD>7<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3.92<TD>(8)<TD>5.08<TD>(13)<TD>0.384<TD>(11)<TD>5<TD>8<TD>5<TD>8<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.18<TD>(14)<TD>4.18<TD>(6)<TD>0.378<TD>(12)<TD>4<TD>7<TD>4<TD>7<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.92<TD>(10)<TD>5.17<TD>(14)<TD>0.376<TD>(13)<TD>5<TD>7<TD>5<TD>7<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3.45<TD>(12)<TD>4.73<TD>(10)<TD>0.36<TD>(14)<TD>4<TD>7<TD>4<TD>7<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>3.25<TD>(13)<TD>4.92<TD>(12)<TD>0.319<TD>(15)<TD>4<TD>8<TD>5<TD>7<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>135<TD>27<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>122<TD>40<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>95<TD>67<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>81<TD>81<TD>
</TABLE>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>126<TD>36<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>118<TD>44<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>109<TD>53<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>92<TD>70<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>90<TD>72<TD>
</TABLE>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Standings for the week</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5.5<TD>(1)<TD>3.83<TD>(7)<TD>0.659<TD>(1)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>5<TD>(2)<TD>3.5<TD>(3)<TD>0.658<TD>(2)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>4<TD>(10)<TD>2.83<TD>(1)<TD>0.653<TD>(3)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>3<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>4.5<TD>(6)<TD>4<TD>(8)<TD>0.554<TD>(4)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>4.67<TD>(4)<TD>4.17<TD>(9)<TD>0.552<TD>(5)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>3.5<TD>(12)<TD>3.17<TD>(2)<TD>0.546<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>4<TD>(10)<TD>3.8<TD>(6)<TD>0.523<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>2<TD>2<TD>3<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>4.33<TD>(9)<TD>4.33<TD>(10)<TD>0.5<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>4.57<TD>(5)<TD>4.86<TD>(11)<TD>0.472<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>5<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>4.5<TD>(6)<TD>5.17<TD>(13)<TD>0.437<TD>(10)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>4.83<TD>(3)<TD>5.83<TD>(15)<TD>0.415<TD>(11)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>4.5<TD>(6)<TD>5.5<TD>(14)<TD>0.409<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>3<TD>(14)<TD>3.67<TD>(5)<TD>0.409<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>2.6<TD>(15)<TD>3.6<TD>(4)<TD>0.355<TD>(14)<TD>2<TD>3<TD>2<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>3.29<TD>(13)<TD>5.14<TD>(12)<TD>0.306<TD>(15)<TD>2<TD>5<TD>3<TD>4<TD>1<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-27347154875348087372015-04-13T07:05:00.002-04:002015-04-13T07:07:02.517-04:00Monday Pythagorean - 4/13/2015
One of the things that I like to do during the baseball season is compile a weekly report of the AL standings, looking at runs scored and allowed, to see who's better than their records and who's worse.
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For those unfamiliar, the Pythagorean report is based on a Bill James discovery regarding the relationship between runs scored, runs allowed and winning percentage. It intuitively makes sense that a teams record will be related to how many runs they score and how many they allow. What James discovered was that, for almost all teams, the winning percentage is very close to a ratio of the square of the runs scored to the sum of the squares of the runs scored and runs allowed. Which was dubbed the "Pythagorean" theorum of baseball.
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The report consists of, for each team, their runs/game, runs allowed/game and Pythagorean project winning percentage, along with their rank among the teams in the league for each of those categories. The Pythagorean winning percentage is calculated as (r ^ 1.83) / ( (r ^ 1.83) + (ra ^ 1.83) ). (1.83 has been determined to be a slightly more accurate exponent with the current offensive levels than 2.) Using the Pythagorean winning percentage, the expected wins total is calculated and compared to the actual win total. Finally, any difference is expressed as "luck", with negative numbers representing underperforming teams.
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Finally, there's a linear projection of final records, based on current winning percentage, and based on Pythagorean winning percentage.
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Week 1 Pythagorean report
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It's simple math, and you've all heard it before, but it's truth - any period of time over which you win 2/3rds of your games is a success. 4-2 is a successful week. Period. A team that wins 2/3 consistently all year ends up with 108 wins...
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<br><br>
The Week That Was:
<br><br>
<ul><li>4/6 - Boston 8 - @Philadelphia 0. Clay Buchholz shines with 7 scoreless innings, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia (twice) and Hanley Ramirez (twice, including a grand slam) hit home runs as Boston opens the 2015 season with a comfortable and convincing win.</li>
<br><br>
<li>4/8 - @Philadelphia 4 - Boston 2. The wind knocks down HRs from Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez, with Ramirez' shot a potential game-winning grand slam against Jonathan Papelbon in the 8th, and Rick Porcello's Red Sox debut is spoiled by a 3-run Jeff Francouer HR in the 6th.</li>
<br><br>
<li>4/9 - Boston 6 - @Philadelphia 2. No one scores before or after the 3rd inning, but Justin Masterton only allows two runs in six strong innings, while also going 2-3 at the plate. Two games into the season, the ridiculous "when should we start worrying about Xander Bogaerts" stories are put to rest, at least for the moment, as he goes 3-4 and drives in 3.</li>
<br><br>
<li>4/10 - Boston 6 - @NY Yankees 5. Strong effort from Wade Miley in his Red Sox debut, but doesn't result in a win when Edward Mujica allows a Chase Headley HR with two outs in the 9th. Boston takes leads in the 16th and 18th only to have the Yankees tie in the bottom of those innings. But NY can't match Boston's score in the 19th, and the Red Sox win the longest game (by time) in the team's history.</li>
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<li>4/11 - Boston 8 - @NY Yankees 4. Joe Kelly makes a start in NY rather than in Greenville (A) and is outstanding, while the Yankees look tired and weak on offense and in the field. Kelly leaves with a 5-1 lead after 7 dominant innings, retiring the last 17 Yankee batters that he faced, and giving a hug break to the Red Sox bullpen which had thrown 13 innings the night before.</li>
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<li>4/12 - @NY Yankees 14 - Boston 4. This one's over almost before it starts. As good as Buchholz was in his first start against the Phillies, he was that bad here, giving up 7 in the first, 3 more in the fourth after Boston briefly showed the potential for getting back into the game.</li></ul>
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<br><br>
Thoughts and commentary...
<ul><li>In 1984, the Washington Post's Thomas Boswell published a book on baseball that's got some interesting stories, but isn't the greatest baseball book ever. What it does have, though, is a wonderful title. Why Time Begins On Opening Day. And this week, after a long off-season and a winter that left those of us in New England repeatedly buried in the snow, we finally got to the Red Sox much-anticipated opening day.</li>
<br><br>
<li>And what an opening it was. Baseball is a game in which perfection is fundamentally impossible. Yes, there are some games which are called "perfect", but if a team were actually playing a "perfect" game, it would never end, because they'd never make an out. The Red Sox made 27 of them on Monday in Philadelphia. That pedantry out of the way, there's really nothing more you could ask for from an opening day game than Boston got. Two HR from Dustin Pedroia, two from big-money addition Hanley Ramirez, one of which was a Grand Slam, another HR from lead-off hitter, rookie phenom Mookie Betts, seven scoreless innings from starter Clay Buchholz and two more scoreless from the bullpen, all adding up to an 8-0 win. </li>
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<li>The obligatory second day off is a lot more palatable after the kind of opening that the Red Sox had than after the kind of opening that the Phillies had.</li>
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<li>Ok, no one really thinks that Joe Kelly is going to win the AL Cy Young award, but it's a little bit less preposterous a notion after Saturday's effort.</li>
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<li>The longest game, by time, in Red Sox-Yankees history. That covers some ground in a rivalry noted for extended game times... </li>
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<li>The Yankees looked, and played, on Saturday exactly like a team that had lost a 19 inning game the night before.</li>
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<li>As bad as the Yankees looked on Saturday, they looked better than Boston did on Sunday.</li>
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<li>If Dustin Pedroia is healthy, if his hands and wrists are completely functional for the first time in three years, that's a tremendous boon for the Red Sox.</li>
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<li>Craig Breslow, Robert Ross, Anthony Varvaro, and Junichi Tazawa combined to throw 12 scoreless innings on the week.</li>
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<li>Understatement of the week: "Much better inning for Buchholz..." - ESPN announcer Dan Shulman, after Clay Buchholz retired the three Yankees he faced in the second inning on Sunday night. In the first inning, he'd allowed 7 runs, including a three-run double to Alex Rodriguez and back-to-back home runs.</li>
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<li>Boston got outstanding starting pitching in five of the six games played this week, with Buchholz' Sunday disaster being the only exception. Of course, neither the Phillies nor Yankees looks like much of an offensive powerhouse right now, either.</li>
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<li>Tales from the Jumping-the-gun department: Two (2) games into the season, there were already stories being written, and there was already angst being expressed on sports radio, about how long you could go with struggling Xander Bogaerts. To the extent that people feel contempt for sports-writers, this kind of nonsense is a large part of the reason why.</li>
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<li>More than once this year, someone is going to say, "that's just Hanley being Manny." If he hits the way Manny did, it will be worth it.</li>
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<li><b>Red Sox Player of the Week</b> - Hanley Ramirez (.320/.333/.680/1.013, 4.86 runs created, 6.07 RC/25 outs) looks like he's going to do the job he was brought in to do. Dustin Pedroia (.207/.303/.448/.751, 3.42 runs created, 3.42 RC/25 outs) looks like he's finally healthy. But the Player of the Week goes to <b>Xander Bogaerts</b> (.407/.467/.519/.985, 6.33 runs created, 9.31 RC/25 outs).</li>
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<li><b>Red Sox Pitcher of the Week</b> - Before Sunday's first inning, there was a good possibility of seeing Clay Buchholz' name here. And I guess you are seeing it, but only in the context of saying that he is not the pitcher of the week. His first outing was outstanding, but you can't put your team behind 7-0 in the first inning and win the award, regardless of what else you've one, or what anyone else has done. Fortunately, there's another obvious candidate. Until late in the week, <b>Joe Kelly</b> was expected to make a rehab start in 'A' ball over the weekend. Instead, he ended up making a stellar start on Saturday against the Yankees, giving up only one early run, and retiring the last 17 batters that he faced in a seven-inning start, just hours after the marathon 19 inning game on Friday night had depleted the bullpen. </li></ul>
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<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/13/2015</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH> <TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Projected<TH NOWRAP, COLSPAN=2>Actual<TH><TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TH NOWRAP><TH>R/G<TH>(rank)<TH>RA/G<TH>(rank)<TH>Pythagorean<TH>(rank)<TH>W<TH>L<TH>W<TH>L<TH>Luck<TH>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>7.83<TD>(1)<TD>2.67<TD>(2)<TD>0.878<TD>(1)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>6<TD>0<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>6.67<TD>(2)<TD>2.5<TD>(1)<TD>0.858<TD>(2)<TD>5<TD>1<TD>6<TD>0<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>6.14<TD>(4)<TD>3.71<TD>(4)<TD>0.715<TD>(3)<TD>5<TD>2<TD>3<TD>4<TD>-2<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>6.33<TD>(3)<TD>4.5<TD>(6)<TD>0.651<TD>(4)<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>5.67<TD>(5)<TD>4.83<TD>(10)<TD>0.572<TD>(5)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>4<TD>2<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>4.67<TD>(8)<TD>4.5<TD>(6)<TD>0.517<TD>(6)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Baltimore<TD>5.17<TD>(6)<TD>5.33<TD>(12)<TD>0.485<TD>(7)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>NY Yankees<TD>5.17<TD>(6)<TD>5.5<TD>(13)<TD>0.471<TD>(8)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>2<TD>4<TD>-1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Houston<TD>2.67<TD>(13)<TD>3<TD>(3)<TD>0.446<TD>(9)<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>3<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Cleveland<TD>3.67<TD>(9)<TD>4.67<TD>(8)<TD>0.391<TD>(10)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Texas<TD>3.43<TD>(10)<TD>4.71<TD>(9)<TD>0.358<TD>(11)<TD>3<TD>4<TD>3<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Seattle<TD>3.33<TD>(11)<TD>5.17<TD>(11)<TD>0.31<TD>(12)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>3<TD>3<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>LA Angels<TD>2.67<TD>(13)<TD>4.33<TD>(5)<TD>0.291<TD>(13)<TD>2<TD>4<TD>2<TD>4<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Chicago Sox<TD>3<TD>(12)<TD>5.5<TD>(13)<TD>0.248<TD>(14)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>2<TD>4<TD>1<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Minnesota<TD>2.17<TD>(15)<TD>5.5<TD>(13)<TD>0.154<TD>(15)<TD>1<TD>5<TD>1<TD>5<TD>0<TD>
</TABLE>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (using current winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>162<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>162<TD>0<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>108<TD>54<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>108<TD>54<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Tampa Bay<TD>81<TD>81<TD>
</TABLE>
<br><br>
<TABLE BORDER=1, CELLPADDING=3, CELLSPACING=0>
<CAPTION>Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)</CAPTION>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Detroit<TD>143<TD>19<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Kansas City<TD>140<TD>22<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Oakland<TD>114<TD>48<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Toronto<TD>106<TD>56<TD>
<TR ALIGN=LEFT><TD NOWRAP>Boston<TD>93<TD>69<TD>
</TABLE>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-88862794951954463132015-03-01T14:20:00.003-05:002015-03-01T14:20:46.405-05:00Sunday music, 3/1/2015Park Street Church Sanctuary Choir<br />
<br />
Choral Introit<br />
<br />
<blockquote>
We Praise Thee<br />
Archbishop Hilarion Alfeyev<br />
<iframe frameborder="no" height="450" scrolling="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/tracks/193705834&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false&visual=true" width="100%"></iframe>
</blockquote>
Anthem
<br />
<blockquote>
Salvation Is Created
</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote>
Pavel Tchesnokov
<iframe frameborder="no" height="450" scrolling="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/tracks/193704084&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false&visual=true" width="100%"></iframe></blockquote>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-61703146049740777892015-02-24T07:39:00.001-05:002015-02-24T07:39:43.756-05:00Red Sox spend a lot of money on Cuban teen. A LOT of money...<br />
And apparently, there was good reason for doing so.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=3624">Keith Law (ESPN)</a>:<br />
<blockquote>
<i>If Moncada were in the 2015 MLB draft, he'd be the first or second pick...He'd be a top-10 pick in any draft class, given his potential to play somewhere in the infield and hit for average and power; <b>even if you want to cap his ceiling as that of an average regular at second or third, that's at least a $15 million-a-year player, and the Red Sox would recoup most of their investment before Moncada hits his second year of arbitration.</b> </i></blockquote>
It may turn out to have been money just thrown away, but it sure looks like they have added a lot of talent to the organization in the last year. And, of course, by signing Moncado, we get the secondary benefit of the Yankees not getting Moncado. So that's a good thing, too...Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-79017841344379000692015-02-11T21:42:00.001-05:002015-02-11T21:45:00.877-05:00Don’t Blame Staples<a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/398403/dont-blame-staples-kevin-d-williamson/page/0/1">Kevin Williamson, National Review Online</a>:<br />
<blockquote>
<i>San Francisco is raising its minimum wage from $11.05/hour to $15/hour, and the owners of Borderlands, who already were barely able to make the shop a going concern, announced that they would have to close. The minimum-wage hike meant that the store was going to go from making a princely $3,000 a year to losing $25,000 a year. Of course, you’ll still be able to get your sci-fi and fantasy novels – from Amazon, or from another similar operation without the labor costs involved with running a conventional bookstore. Which is great if you’re Jeff Bezos, but kind of stinks if you’re the sort of sad character (ahem) who likes to lurk around in bookstores. I’m perfectly happy to see every Staples clerk replaced by something sold to Staples CEO Ronald Sargent by Jawas offering a deep corporate discount. But, damn it all, I like bookstores. (And if San Francisco continues raising its minimum wage, the robots are ready.)<br />
<br />
In San Francisco, the people who were bemoaning the impending closure of Borderlands admitted sheepishly that they’d voted for the minimum-wage hike. “It’s not something that I thought would affect certain specific small businesses,” one customer said. “I feel sad.”<br />
<br />
<b>Yeah, Adam Smith feels sad, too, you dope</b>.</i></blockquote>
Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-27034476229466817392015-02-11T06:02:00.002-05:002015-02-11T06:02:52.041-05:00The Daily Show host is leaving. My reaction to the news that Jon Stewart is leaving The Daily Show is to quote, again, Screwtape. Because this is what I always hear on the rare occasions that I'm unable to avoid listening to Stewart<sup>1</sup>...<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>But flippancy is the best of all. In the first place it is very economical. Only a clever human can make a real Joke about virtue, or indeed about anything else; <b>any of them can be trained to talk as if virtue were funny</b>. Among flippant people the joke is always assumed to have been made. No one actually makes it; but every serious subject is discussed in a manner which implies that they have already found a ridiculous side to it. If prolonged, the habit of Flippancy builds up around a man the finest armour-plating against the Enemy that I know, and it is quite free from the dangers inherent in the other sources of laughter. It is a thousand miles away from joy: <b>it deadens, instead of sharpening, the intellect; and it excites no affection between those who practise it.</b>..</i></blockquote>
<br />
That sums up Jon Stewart for me. "<i>The joke is always assumed to have been made. No one actually makes it; but every serious subject is discussed in a manner which implies that they have already found a ridiculous side to it.</i>" And, of course, his audience, and his fans, are convinced of their own moral and intellectual superiority. The cloud of smug emanating from every frame is intense. <br />
<br />
The downside is that he'll no doubt be replaced by someone just as bad, doing the same sort of schtick. And no doubt he'll pop up somewhere else, doing the same thing.<br />
<br />
But I'll manage to continue not watching...<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<sup>1</sup> - I don't ever watch his show, but there are enough people who do, and enough commentary about it, and enough viral videos demonstrating his awesomeness in interviews with relevant political figures, that I've seen quite enough of him, I believe, to comment. So I shall.Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11670145.post-91062717665201116172014-12-15T07:13:00.001-05:002014-12-15T07:14:30.426-05:00What Shall We Give? <br />
One of the pieces that the Park Street Church choir and orchestra performed at last night's Service of Lessons and Carols is this gorgeous piece, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNHJCREmhdg&feature=youtu.be">What Shall We Give?</a> Here's the Mormon Tabernacle Choir performing it, conducted by its composer Mack Willberg.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/cNHJCREmhdg" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Their choir and orchestra are larger than ours, but so is their space. I may be (ok, am) biased, but I think it sounded just as good in Boston last night as it did in this lovely video...Lyfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14779707505496464255noreply@blogger.com2