Monday, June 01, 2015

Monday pythagorean - 6/1/2015

Lose three, win one, lose three is not a recipe for success, but that's what the Red Sox did this week...

The Week That Was:

  • 5/25 - @Minnesota 7 - Boston 2 - Whatever positive momentum the Red Sox brought out of Boston disappeared before they arrived in the Twin Cities, as Joe Kelly gave up 7 runs without getting out of the second, and a two-run third inning was the sole evidence of offense from the Bosotn bats.


  • 5/26 - @Minnesota 2 - Boston 1 - Clay Buchholz gives up two runs in the bottom of the first, and that proves sufficient for the Twins to build an insurmountable lead. Boston scores one in the second, and no one scores again, as the Twins hold on to their 2-1 lead for 7 innings.


  • 5/27 - @Minnesota 6 - Boston 4 - For the first time in the three-game series in Minnesota, the Red Sox take a lead, scoring two runs in the top of the third. The lead is gone five batters into the bottom of the third, and the tie is gone one batter later, as the Twins score three in the third and never relinquish their lead in an eventual 6-4 Boston loss.


  • 5/28 - Boston 5 - @Texas 1 - Eduardo Rogriguez, acquired at the trade deadline for two months of Andrew Miller's services, makes his Major League debut and far exceeds any hype that preceded him, allowing only 5 baserunners (3 hits and two walks) over 7 2/3 scoreless, while also striking out seven. The bats get some help from the Texas defense and the three-game losing streak to start the trip comes to an end.


  • 5/29 - @Texas 7 - Boston 4 - Having lost many games due to bad starting pitching and woeful offense, the bullpen takes a turn, as Steven Wright pitches fairly well, and the offense score more than he allows, but two each from Ogando and Breslow doom them yet again.


  • 5/30 - @Texas 8 - Boston 0 - As the Red Sox had two nights earlier, the Rangers start a pitcher making his Major League debut. As the Rangers had two nights earlier, the Red Sox don't hit, playing one of their worst games of the season, as they struggle offensively, on the mound, and in the field.


  • 5/31 - @Texas 4 - Boston 3 - Joe Kelly is effective for five innings, and the Red Sox manage to score three, taking a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth. The potential tying run reaches on an error by Sandoval, two outs later they walk the potential winning run intentionally with two outs to avoid Prince Fielder, and instead get pinch-hitter Josh Hamilton, who hits a ball into the left-center field gap as the Rangers walk-off with the win.






Thoughts and commentary...

  • Looking at the season thus far in its totality, there is one question that overwhelms everything else - how in God's name is it possible that a team playing this badly enters June only four games out of first place?


  • As bad as their record is, the Red Sox have actually been lucky to compile it. They're 22-29 - by runs scored and allowed, they should be 20-31 and 6 games out.


  • What went well this week - Eduardo Rodriguez made a stellar Major League debut. David Ortiz took a couple of days off, said he found and fixed something, and went 3-8 after coming back. Dustin Pedroia went deep twice. Hanley Ramirez went deep twice.


  • What went poorly this week - pretty much everything else.


  • I heard some comments about wanting the Red Sox to go get Jonathan Papelbon in the wake of yesterday's disaster. Given that the two runs that scored reached base on a Sandoval error and an intentional walk ordered by the manager, which brought up a great hitter who had been tormenting the Red Sox for the entire series, that one was not Uehara's fault.


  • Far too early to be too worried about Rusney Castillo (.222/.263/.222/.485, .45 runs created, .70 RC/25 outs), but he is not off to a good start in Boston this year.


  • I would not have believed this possible, but the Boston Red Sox enter the month of June with the worst run differential (-48) in the American League, and the third worst in all of MLB, ahead of only Milwaukee and Philadelphia. I thought the pitching would be ok, and it's been worse than I expected (though, to be fair, they were in the top half of the AL in runs allowed in May, which is about what I expected). But I expected the offense to be excellent, and it's been putrid.


  • The Red Sox scored 82 runs while going 10-19 in May. That works out to 2.83 runs/game. The second-worst AL scoring team in May, the Baltimore Orioles, outscored them by 13 (16%).


  • The Red Sox enter June with a 22-29 record and 195 runs scored. The dreadful Bobby Valentine-managed 2012 team entered June with a 26-25 record and 268 runs scored.


  • Coming next week - we go to Roget and list synonyms for "putrid"...


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Not a lot to choose from, here. Sandy Leon (.333/.429/.333/.762, .99 runs created, 6.16 RC/25 outs) made the most of his two games, but it was just two games. Dustin Pedroia (.333/.333/.533/.867, 4.78 runs created, 5.69 RC/25 outs) was productive, not great, but going deep a couple of times. But the best, albeit somewhat less than spectacular, performance came from Mookie Betts (.333/.400/.444/.844, 5.12 runs created, 6.74 RC/25 outs).


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The only reason that it wasn't an 0-7 road trip was that Eduardo Rodriguez made his Major League debut and was absolutely stellar in the process, apitching 7 2/3 scoreless innings, holding Texas to 3 hits (and 2 walks), while striking out seven.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/1/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Kansas City4.67(2)3.65(2)0.611(1)291929190
Houston4.29(7)3.86(4)0.548(2)282331203
Minnesota4.59(3)4.16(7)0.545(3)272230193
Toronto5.15(1)4.67(14)0.545(4)28242329-5
Tampa Bay3.76(13)3.51(1)0.532(5)27242625-1
NY Yankees4.47(6)4.27(10)0.521(6)27242625-1
LA Angels3.94(11)3.78(3)0.519(7)262527241
Cleveland4.5(5)4.42(11)0.508(8)25252426-1
Oakland4.19(9)4.17(8)0.502(9)27262033-7
Texas4.57(4)4.59(13)0.498(10)252626251
Detroit4.12(10)4.13(6)0.498(11)262628242
Baltimore4.22(8)4.24(9)0.498(12)24252326-1
Seattle3.72(14)4.08(5)0.458(13)232724261
Chicago Sox3.65(15)4.51(12)0.405(14)202923263
Boston3.82(12)4.76(15)0.401(15)203122292
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Minnesota9963
Kansas City9864
Houston9864
Detroit8775
LA Angels8676
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Kansas City9963
Houston9270
Minnesota9270
Tampa Bay8577
LA Angels8577
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
NY Yankees4.86(4)3(2)0.707(1)5243-1
LA Angels4.86(4)3.14(3)0.689(2)52520
Oakland3.29(10)2.14(1)0.686(3)5243-1
Minnesota4.67(6)3.33(5)0.649(4)42511
Cleveland5.57(1)4(9)0.647(5)5243-1
Toronto5.33(2)4.5(11)0.577(6)33330
Seattle3.57(8)3.29(4)0.538(7)43430
Texas5.29(3)5(13)0.525(8)43521
Chicago Sox4(7)4.13(10)0.486(9)44440
Tampa Bay3.33(9)3.5(6)0.478(10)3324-1
Baltimore3.13(11)3.75(8)0.417(11)35441
Houston2.83(12)3.67(7)0.384(12)24240
Boston2.71(13)5(13)0.246(13)2516-1
Kansas City2.6(14)5.8(15)0.187(14)14140
Detroit2(15)4.57(12)0.181(15)16251

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