Monday Pythagorean - 8/10/2015

Kind of sad that a 3-3 week where they're only outscored by one is a good week, but for this team, that's where we are...

The Week That Was:

• 8/4 - @New York 13 - Boston 3 - Highly-touted Boston left-hander Henry Owens makes his Major League debut and is effective, taking a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the 9th. But the first two runners reach, and the bullpen allows them to score, plus one more, and then 9 more in the 7th, so he takes the loss.



• 8/5 - Boston 2 - @New York 1 - For the second night in a row, a top pitching prospect makes his debut, pitches well through five innings, but takes the loss anyway. This time that's the fate for the Yankees' Luis Severino, who gets matched up against Boston knuckle-baller Steven Wright who is dominant, allowing only four hits and one run through eight innings.



• 8/6 - @New York 2 - Boston 1 - Eduardo Rodriguez pitches well, but the Boston bats are silent. Jacoby Ellsbury's 7th-inning HR breaks a 1-1 tie and provides the eventual winning run.



• 8/7 - Boston 7 - @Detroit 2 - Joe Kelly manages to limit his bad inning to two runs, and the Red Sox score early and often en route to a 7-2 win in Detroit. In the process, the Sox lose Koji Uehara on the last play of the game, as he takes a ball off of his pitching forearm. Preliminary indications are that it's not serious.



• 8/8 - @Detroit 7 - Boston 6 - Boston scores first, Detroit scores last, as a Victor Martinez HR in the bottom of the 7th provides the last lead-change in a game full of them. Wade Miley pitched well through four innings and OK through five, but not particularly well through six, and the bullpen struggles continue.



• 8/9 - Boston 7 - @Detroit 2 - Jackie Bradley, Jr., has a dominant day, combining a couple of spectacular catches in the outfiield with driving in five runs with a HR and a bases-loaded triple, providing all of the offense necessary for Henry Owens to pick up his first Major League win.

Thoughts and commentary...

• Congratulations to Henry Owens, for picking up his first Major League win in his second of two pretty good starts this, his Major League debut week.



• Mike Napoli did some great things in a Boston uniform. But not this year or last. In the long-run, the flag from 2013 will always be there, and so will my affection for him as a Boston fan.



• David Ortiz hit two monster home runs this week. The one in New York on Wednesday night was measured at 441 feet, the one in Detroit on Friday night was even further.



• Ortiz' vesting option for next year kicked in, so we will see his 14th season in a Boston uniform next year. He's 11 HR away from 500, which he'll almost certainly get to either in September or early in the 2016 season. And 432 of those have come in a Boston uniform, so he's 18 away from 450 in a Boston uniform, and only 20 behind Yaz' 452. So there's a strong likelihood that a year from now, we'll have seen his 500th, his 450th in a Boston uniform, and Ortiz move into second place on the Red Sox All-Time home run list.



• Can Jackie Bradley hit Major League pitching? The question remains to be answer, but he sure did yesterday...



• Red Sox Player of the Week - David Ortiz (.304/.407/.739/1.147, 6.40 runs created, 10.00 RC/25 outs) went deep three times (very deep), and, in the process, locked in his contract for next year.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Steven Wright pitched eight outstanding innings in New York, giving up only four hits and one run.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/10/2015

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	5.28	(1)	4.14	(7)	0.61	(1)	69	44	61	52	-8
Houston	4.42	(5)	3.73	(1)	0.577	(2)	65	48	61	52	-4
Kansas City	4.33	(7)	3.75	(2)	0.565	(3)	62	48	66	44	4
NY Yankees	4.81	(2)	4.25	(9)	0.556	(4)	61	49	61	49	0
Baltimore	4.4	(6)	3.92	(6)	0.553	(5)	61	49	56	54	-5
LA Angels	4.18	(10)	3.78	(3)	0.546	(6)	60	50	59	51	-1
Oakland	4.1	(11)	3.79	(4)	0.536	(7)	61	52	51	62	-10
Tampa Bay	3.71	(15)	3.79	(5)	0.49	(8)	55	57	56	56	1
Cleveland	4.02	(12)	4.21	(8)	0.479	(9)	53	57	51	59	-2
Texas	4.48	(3)	4.77	(13)	0.471	(10)	52	58	55	55	3
Minnesota	4.19	(9)	4.5	(12)	0.467	(11)	52	59	55	56	3
Detroit	4.43	(4)	4.82	(15)	0.462	(12)	51	60	54	57	3
Seattle	3.74	(14)	4.26	(10)	0.441	(13)	49	63	52	60	3
Boston	4.21	(8)	4.8	(14)	0.44	(14)	49	63	50	62	1
Chicago Sox	3.74	(13)	4.41	(11)	0.425	(15)	46	63	51	58	5

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Kansas City	97	65
NY Yankees	90	72
Toronto	87	75
Houston	87	75
LA Angels	87	75

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Kansas City	95	67
Toronto	91	71
NY Yankees	90	72
Houston	89	73
LA Angels	87	75

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
LA Angels	3.67	(12)	3.67	(3)	0.5	(8)	3	3	4	2	1
Houston	3.71	(11)	4.86	(11)	0.38	(12)	3	4	1	6	-2
Oakland	3.43	(14)	3.86	(6)	0.446	(11)	3	4	4	3	1
Toronto	5.14	(5)	1.86	(1)	0.866	(1)	6	1	7	0	1
Cleveland	7.17	(1)	4	(7)	0.744	(2)	4	2	3	3	-1
Seattle	5.67	(3)	5.67	(13)	0.5	(8)	3	3	4	2	1
Baltimore	4.83	(6)	3.83	(4)	0.604	(5)	4	2	3	3	-1
Texas	6	(2)	4.33	(9)	0.645	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Tampa Bay	5.5	(4)	4	(7)	0.642	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	4.33	(8)	4.5	(10)	0.483	(10)	3	3	3	3	0
Kansas City	4.5	(7)	3.83	(4)	0.573	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Detroit	3.67	(12)	5.33	(12)	0.335	(14)	2	4	3	3	1
Minnesota	3.86	(10)	8.57	(15)	0.188	(15)	1	6	1	6	0
Chicago Sox	4.17	(9)	6	(14)	0.339	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
NY Yankees	2.83	(15)	2.67	(2)	0.528	(7)	3	3	2	4	-1