Monday, August 03, 2015

Monday pythagorean - 8/3/2015

If the opposition is scoring in the first inning of every game (ok, there was one in which they didn't), it's hard to expect much better than 3-4...

The Week That Was:

  • 7/27 - Chicago 10 - @Boston 8 - Joe Kelly's struggles continue, as he allows four runs to Chicago in the top of the first. Boston, in doing what has been very unusual during the 2015 season, battles back, taking one run leads in the bottoms of the 4th and 5th innings, but neither lasts as Craig Breslow and Robbie Ross perform nearly as ineffectively as Kelly, and the White Sox win 10-8.


  • 7/28 - Chicago 9 - @Boston 4 - The night after Joe Kelly allowed four runs to the White Sox in the top of the first, Wade Miley allows five. Before the Red Sox sent a single batter to the plate, the White Sox had already scored more runs than the Red Sox would manage as they fell 9-4.


  • 7/29 - Chicago 9 - @Boston 2 - Rick Porcello allows as many runs scored as batters he retires, leaving after 2+ innings with a 6-0 deficit. Boston's initial offensive attempts in the game end with a runner thrown out, by a wide margin, with none out, as third base coach Brian Butterfield adds his contribution to the offensive ineptitude.


  • 7/30 - @Boston 8 - Chicago 2 - For the fourth consecutive game, the White Sox take a lead in the top of the first. This time, however, Stephen Wright, and the bullpen, manage to hold them off the board the rest of the way, while the Red Sox are putting up 8 of their own for the second time in the series. Tonight, it's enough.


  • 7/31 - @Boston 7 - Tampa 5 - Eduardo Rodriguez struggles through five, but never allows a big inning, holding the Rays to one run in each of the first three innings and nothing in the next two. Boston's 'pen outpitches the Rays', and Mike Napoli's 2 run HR in the bottom of the 7th after Tampa took its only lead in the top, results in a Boston win.


  • 8/1 - @Boston 11 - Tampa 7 - For the first, and only, game this week, Boston bats without the opposition having scored in the top of the first. Joe Kelly is dominant for three innings as Tampa gets a Porcellish start from Matt Moore and Boston builds an early 6-0 lead. Kelly nearly gives it all away, but the offense continues producing, and the game ends with the Red Sox evening their record for the week at 3-3.


  • 8/2 - @Tampa 4 - Boston 3 - With a chance to end the week with a win and a winning record, the Red Sox get a strong performance from Wade Milay and take a 3-2 lead into the 8th inning. But Junichi Tazawa gives up two, and the Sox don't score again, falling 4-3 in the game and on the week.








Thoughts and commentary...

  • The Red Sox retired Pedro's number twice - first, in English, on Tuesday night and then, in Spanish, on Wednesday night. I know NESN had Tuesday's, but I was in the park on Wednesday. Very cool to see Pedro and El Tiante on the mound together...


  • Quite a day for Travis Shaw on Saturday. He's not a real prospect at this point, but it's always nice to see someone who has toiled for years in the minors have a moment of glory in The Show. Two HR, four hits, five runs scored - that's a better day than many players who will have better careers will ever have.


  • Sorry, but I just haven't got much more to say. It's been a trainwreck from the start. They've not only been not good, they've been not interesting.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Hard to believe, with just two games of action, but Travis R Shaw (.750/.778/1.625/2.403, 6.10 runs created, 76.22 RC/25 outs), in those two games, produced more than anyone else on the team this week. He had one walk to go with his 6-8 with a double and 2 HR.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Stephen Wright was effective on Friday, but I am going to dock him some for allowing runs in the first inning and putting the team in a whole. So I'm going to go with Craig Breslow, who threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings over three appearances, including getting out of a first-and-third, no out situation that Porcello handed him on Wednesday night.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/3/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto5.29(1)4.29(10)0.595(1)63435452-9
Houston4.46(4)3.65(1)0.591(2)63436046-3
Kansas City4.32(7)3.75(2)0.564(3)594562423
NY Yankees4.92(2)4.35(12)0.557(4)584659451
Baltimore4.38(6)3.92(6)0.55(5)57475351-4
LA Angels4.21(8)3.79(5)0.548(6)57475549-2
Oakland4.14(11)3.78(3)0.541(7)57494759-10
Minnesota4.21(8)4.23(9)0.498(8)525254502
Tampa Bay3.61(15)3.78(3)0.479(9)515552541
Detroit4.48(3)4.79(13)0.469(10)495651542
Texas4.39(5)4.8(14)0.46(11)485651533
Cleveland3.84(12)4.22(8)0.456(12)475748561
Boston4.21(10)4.82(15)0.438(13)466047591
Seattle3.63(14)4.18(7)0.436(14)466048582
Chicago Sox3.72(13)4.32(11)0.432(15)445950536
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Kansas City9765
Houston9270
NY Yankees9270
LA Angels8676
Minnesota8478
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Kansas City9567
Houston9369
NY Yankees9171
Toronto8775
LA Angels8775
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Houston6(4)2.83(1)0.798(1)51510
NY Yankees8.86(1)5.14(8)0.73(2)5243-1
Toronto5.5(5)3.67(4)0.677(3)42420
Baltimore4.86(7)4(5)0.588(4)43521
Tampa Bay5.33(6)4.5(6)0.577(5)33330
Cleveland3.43(13)3(3)0.561(6)4334-1
Oakland3(14)2.83(1)0.526(7)33330
Chicago Sox6.71(2)7(15)0.481(8)34431
Boston6.14(3)6.57(13)0.469(9)34340
Detroit4.29(9)5.57(10)0.382(10)34340
Seattle3.71(12)4.86(7)0.38(11)3425-1
Kansas City4.14(11)5.71(11)0.357(12)25341
Minnesota4.17(10)5.83(12)0.351(13)24240
Texas4.86(7)6.86(14)0.347(14)25432
LA Angels2.5(15)5.33(9)0.2(15)1506-1

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