Monday, September 12, 2011

Monday Pythagorean 9/12/2011

I don't even have a rant this week. They were not only bad, they were unwatchably bad, and my only commentary was that I found it impossible to sit through the entirety of any of those games. Even the one win was bad baseball, because it was over very early...

  • Even with the Yankees losing four straight to Baltimore and LAnaheim, the deficit continued to increase. If they haven't been eliminated from the division yet, and they haven't, neither have they locked up the Wild Card. This was about as bad a week of baseball as they've played all year, and the fact that they are still in a playoff spot is due to good work that they did earlier, not anything that they've done recently.
  • In the cold light of reason, I must now say this - they are still likely to make the playoffs. They've got four more home games and five fewer road games remaining than the Rays, and they've been a better team all year, and the race has gotten close as Tampa's had a hot streak that coincided with a dreadful Boston slump. Neither of those things is likely to continue much longer.
  • Of course, neither has to go much longer for Tampa to pass Boston...
  • The offense looked much better than it actually was, as they scored a ton of runs in games where it did them no particular good (14 runs in a shutout win, 10 more in a loss - they could have gone 1-1 in those games scoring 1 as opposed to 24.) But they couldn't seem to get enough hits at the right times to take the battered pitching staff off the hook. And when they did get a well-pitched game, they didn't score at all, losing 1-0 in 11 innings.
  • They actually outscored Toronto by over two runs per game in the course of losing 3-of-4.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Marco Scutaro (.464/.500/.714/1.214) was outstanding against his former team, the Blue Jays, and kept up his hot streak through the weekend in Tampa.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - I'm open to nominations. Ok, no, I'm really not. The pitching was awful this week, and the few guys who were effective, weren't effective enough for long enough to warrant awarding.
  • Red Sox Goat of the Week - I feel the need to mention two who warrant special mention. And I hate to do it, because as two of the better and more important players on the team, each is a big part of the reason that they are still in a playoff spot right now. But each was bad enough this week to warrant "special" mention. First, for the offense, we have Dustin Pedroia (.097/.125/.129/.254) with about as offensive a performance as you'll ever see. Capable of getting very, very hot, he's also capable of the opposite. He's stranding runners, killing innings, and just crippling their ability to come back. And Daniel Bard not gave up six runs in only three innings of work, he's almost single-handedly responsible for me having to listen to more "when will Tim Wakefield win his 200th game" talk.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.41(1)4.03(3)0.631(1)92538857-4
Boston5.36(2)4.37(8)0.593(2)87598561-2
Texas5.2(3)4.3(6)0.586(3)86618364-3
Tampa Bay4.31(7)3.77(1)0.562(4)816481640
Detroit4.74(4)4.42(9)0.531(5)786884626
Los Angeles4.1(10)3.86(2)0.528(6)776980663
Toronto4.67(5)4.67(11)0.501(7)747374730
Chicago4.07(11)4.18(5)0.488(8)717473722
Cleveland4.22(9)4.46(10)0.475(9)687672724
Oakland4.06(12)4.31(7)0.473(10)69776680-3
Kansas City4.39(6)4.8(12)0.459(11)68806286-6
Seattle3.42(14)4.11(4)0.417(12)618561850
Baltimore4.23(8)5.28(14)0.401(13)588758870
Minnesota3.81(13)4.9(13)0.386(14)569059873

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9864
Boston9468
Detroit9369
Texas9171
Tampa Bay9072

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9963
Boston9468
Detroit9369
Texas9270
Tampa Bay9171

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.83(2)2.67(2)0.807(1)51601
Los Angeles4(10)2.17(1)0.754(2)5142-1
Texas6.83(1)3.83(7)0.742(3)4233-1
Tampa Bay5.33(3)3.5(5)0.684(4)42511
Chicago4.38(8)3.13(4)0.649(5)53530
Baltimore4.86(6)5(9)0.487(6)34340
Seattle2.86(13)3(3)0.478(7)34340
Kansas City4(10)4.43(8)0.454(8)34431
Boston5.14(4)5.86(12)0.441(9)3416-2
New York4.43(7)5.14(10)0.432(10)34340
Toronto4.29(9)5.57(11)0.382(11)34522
Oakland5(5)7.67(14)0.314(12)24240
Cleveland4(10)6.29(13)0.304(13)25250
Minnesota1.86(14)3.71(6)0.22(14)2516-1

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