Monday, August 08, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 8/8/2011


Another 4-3 week, and the division lead erodes again...

  • On August 7th, Boston clinched the season series against the Yankees, running their head-to-head record against New York to 10-2. If the two teams finish the season with identical records, the Red Sox win the AL East. (OK, not necessarily. It's still mathematically possible for a second place team from one of the other divisions to finish ahead of both, which would mean that whoever didn't win the East would not be the Wild Card, and they'd have to have a playoff to determine the division winner. I am discounting that possibility, as I find it very unlikely.)
  • Statistics line of the week:

    CC Sabatha - 2011
    GSW L IPBFPHRERHRBBKHBPERAWHIPIP/game


    vs. All25166182.67744162645784616852.811.177.31


    vs. Boston40425.001173320202102137.201.846.25


    vs. Everyone else21162157.67627129443763614722.111.067.51



  • A cautionary note for Sox fans who want to read too much into those Sabathia numbers...

    Josh Beckett vs. Yankees
    GSW L IPBFPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP


    2010512261344031299132610.042.15


    201143027105163327301.001.00



  • One more sobering thought for Red Sox fans. The Red Sox are eight games ahead of the Yankees in head-to-head play. The Yankees are seven games ahead of Boston vs. the rest of baseball. And the Yankees still have the best run differential in the game.



  • Here's another interesting line - Jarod Saltalamacchia reached base safely just four times this week, with two hits and two walks. And yet he scored five runs. (One of those was as a pinch-runner.)



  • Red Sox Player of the Week - The obvious choice for the award this week was Jacoby Ellsbury (.276/.313/.552/.864) but he actually had a good, not great, week. It looked great, though, because his few hits came in memorable circumstances, with his one-fers on Tuesday and Wednesday both ending the games, and then his three-run homer on Saturday giving Boston a big cushion against Sabathia. But the best performance of the week came from Carl Crawford (.429/.448/.679/1.127), whose 12 hits included one HR and four doubles.



  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - He didn't get a win in either game, but they won both of his starts, largely on the strength of Josh Beckett's performances. Over 12 innings, he allowed three runs, going six strong twice during the week.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.53(2)4(3)0.644(1)73406944-4
Boston5.66(1)4.34(7)0.619(2)704370430
Texas5.23(3)4.4(8)0.578(3)67486451-3
Tampa Bay4.43(7)4.14(5)0.531(4)60535954-1
Los Angeles3.97(13)3.77(1)0.523(5)605563523
Toronto4.85(4)4.75(11)0.51(6)585658560
Detroit4.62(5)4.67(10)0.495(7)565861535
Cleveland4.43(8)4.5(9)0.492(8)555756561
Oakland3.98(12)4.11(4)0.486(9)55595163-4
Chicago4.09(10)4.24(6)0.484(10)555855580
Kansas City4.58(6)4.99(12)0.461(11)53614965-4
Seattle3.4(14)3.91(2)0.437(12)496449640
Minnesota4.03(11)5.01(13)0.401(13)466851635
Baltimore4.26(9)5.52(14)0.384(14)436844671
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10062
New York9963
Texas9072
Los Angeles8973
Detroit8775
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10161
Boston10062
Texas9171
Los Angeles8874
Tampa Bay8577
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Seattle4.17(9)2.33(1)0.743(1)42420
New York6.14(1)3.71(3)0.715(2)52520
Cleveland5.43(2)4.86(9)0.551(3)4334-1
Kansas City4.5(5)4.17(5)0.535(4)33330
Tampa Bay4.83(4)4.5(7)0.533(5)33330
Texas5.33(3)5(10)0.529(6)33330
Los Angeles3.33(13)3.17(2)0.523(7)33421
Boston4.43(7)4.29(6)0.515(8)43430
Detroit4(11)4(4)0.5(9)33421
Oakland4.5(5)5.17(11)0.437(10)3324-1
Baltimore4.33(8)5.17(11)0.42(11)3324-1
Toronto4(11)4.83(8)0.414(12)24331
Chicago4.14(10)5.43(13)0.379(13)34340
Minnesota2.83(14)5.67(14)0.22(14)15150

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