Monday, September 05, 2011

Monday Pythagorean 9/5/2011

One good week, one bad week. Many more like this one, and they'll be the Wild Card...

  • Really, I've got nothing to say about this week. They played badly, both offensively and defensively (Which means, in a baseball context, primarily pitching.) They played two of their likely playoff opponents and got their butts kicked. They repeatedly failed to get a big hit, or many small ones. They repeatedly failed to get a big out, or many small ones. It was a teamwide failure, and made for just dismal watching most of the way. When they led, it felt tenuous; when they trailed, it felt insurmountable. I suspect my feelings about the week are even more negative than the week was, as they went 2-4, not 0-6, and they lost 3 1/2 in the standings rather than 5 1/2. Be that as it may, there was about 10 minutes of this week that I enjoyed.
  • Start the week 2 games up, finish the week 1 1/2 games back. And this was one of the stretches where they had the schedule advantage, as they played six at home and the Yankees played three at home, four on the road. The schedule advantage that Boston had is not gone, because the Yankees still have that trip west, but they squandered a big part of it on this very disappointing 4-5 homestand.
  • Thank goodness they at least won one of the games against New York. The Yankees would have been 7-0 otherwise. And I suspect that the Blue Jays are going to put up more of a fight for the next four days in Rogers Center (nee Skydome) than they did over the past three in Yankee Stadium.
  • It's nice that Youkilis is back. It'd be even better if he remembered how to hit.
  • It's nice that Crawford hit a couple of home runs, but he continues to be an out machine.
  • Crawford's OBP for the week? .318. And this was one of his good weeks. OBP for the season? .286. Unspeakably hideous. JD Drew took a lot of abuse from the Boston fan base for his disappointing 2007, his first in a Red Sox uniform, and it started early. Certain opinion makers in the Boston market didn't like the signing, and he was a target for abuse and dissatisfaction from the start. But if you look at his stats on September 5, 2007 and look at Crawford's today, you'll see that Drew was much more productive during his first five months in Boston than Crawford has been. And played just as much as Crawford has. But no one's said much about Crawford yet, other than to note that he hasn't been good. No one's putting his name on a list of "worst signings ever," which people were doing with Drew from the start. I'm not going to do that, either, but he hasn't been bad this year - he's been horrible, dreadful, hideously awful, and it warrants pointing out.
  • Right this minute, I do not have the confidence that this team is as good as its record. I don't know why that is, I don't suspect that it's fair, but that's the way I feel about it. They're obviously going to the playoffs, but are they going to beat the Rangers or Tigers in a five game series? Yes, I know, it's a crapshoot, and I know that, but I don't feel good about them. I'm concerned that they can't seem to get a dominant performance out of Lester against anyone. His ERA is great for the last three months, but he struggles to get through six, leaving a lot of innings for the bullpen. I don't want to see John Lackey or Tim Wakefield or Andrew Miller start a playoff game. I worry that midnight has struck for Matt Albers, Dan Wheeler's done nothing, I don't trust Franklin Morales as far as I could throw him, and Bard and Papelbon can't give them four innings every night.
  • OK, they're still a pretty good team. They're still going to be playing October baseball. Anything can still happen. But I'm in a Red Sox grumpy mood this morning.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Ellsbury had another outstanding week, including a huge HR in one of the two wins. But the best performance of the week was from David Ortiz (.368/.520/.579/1.099), who continues to demonstrate that reports of his demise as an offensive force were greatly exaggerated. Or at the very least, premature.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Uh, no. No one. Yes, Lester did only allow one run, but only pitched five. Bedard allowed three over six (and earned his first Win in a Red Sox uniform in the process), which is a Quality Start, but not a great one. The rest of the starting performances were all worse. And the bullpen tended to come in and turn competitive games into non-competitive games. No pitcher of the week. (Don't like it, guys? Maybe give up fewer than seven [7] runs per game, and see what happens...)



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.46(1)3.98(3)0.641(1)88508553-3
Boston5.37(2)4.29(7)0.601(2)845584550
Texas5.13(3)4.32(8)0.578(3)82598061-2
Tampa Bay4.27(7)3.78(1)0.555(4)77627663-1
Los Angeles4.11(10)3.94(2)0.519(5)736776643
Detroit4.69(4)4.5(10)0.519(6)736778625
Toronto4.69(4)4.62(11)0.507(7)71696971-2
Cleveland4.23(8)4.36(9)0.486(8)677070673
Oakland4.02(12)4.16(4)0.484(9)68726476-4
Chicago4.05(11)4.24(6)0.479(10)667168692
Kansas City4.41(6)4.82(12)0.459(11)65765883-7
Seattle3.45(14)4.17(5)0.415(12)588158810
Baltimore4.2(9)5.29(14)0.396(13)558355830
Minnesota3.91(13)4.96(13)0.392(14)558458813
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10062
Boston9864
Texas9270
Detroit9072
Tampa Bay8973
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10062
Boston9864
Texas9270
Tampa Bay8973
Detroit8973
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland4.71(9)2.71(1)0.733(1)5243-1
Texas6.33(2)3.67(4)0.731(2)42420
Detroit7.86(1)5.14(8)0.685(3)52520
New York5(7)3.43(2)0.666(4)52611
Toronto6(3)4.71(6)0.609(5)4334-1
Kansas City5.71(4)5(7)0.561(6)4334-1
Los Angeles5.71(4)5.14(8)0.548(7)43430
Tampa Bay3.57(12)3.43(2)0.519(8)4334-1
Cleveland3.86(11)4(5)0.483(9)34522
Minnesota5.5(6)6(11)0.46(10)3324-1
Boston4.83(8)7(13)0.337(11)24240
Chicago4.67(10)8(14)0.272(12)24240
Seattle3.29(13)5.86(10)0.258(13)25250
Baltimore3(14)6.43(12)0.199(14)16251

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