Monday, August 29, 2011

Monday Pythagorean 8/29/2011


Well, that went well. There are circumstances under which 5-2 isn't good enough (none of which are in play here), but 5-2 is always a good week...

  • A week ago, I said that if the Red Sox got to today only one game back, they'd have had a good week ("at least relatively"). Well, they sure did have a good week, taking 3 of 4 in Texas, and then, under grueling conditions, 2 of 3 from Oakland. But I assumed the Yankees weren't going lost two to Oakland and two more in Baltimore. But they did, and the Sox enter the week 2 games up - three up in the win column and one up in the loss column. I was wrong - they'd have to had a bad week to be one game back this morning.
  • There's been a lot of concern expressed, in various places, over Adrian Gonzalez' lack of power, as he'd gone 84 at-bats between HR. He promptly hit five in three games in Texas.
  • Oakland's reliever after the rain delay in the second of Saturday's games prompts the following. Name as destiny: What else could a Josh Outman have grown up to be, other than a pitcher? [Ed.: Hunter, fisher, nature guide? LB: No, it's Outman, not Outdoorsman. Ed.: Well, he could have been an umpire, right? LB: OK, that's enough out of you...]
  • If the rain in the 5th inning on Saturday night had held off for five more minutes, I believe they wouldn't have started up again and played nine.
  • There have been a couple of times during this eternal "Waiting for Mr. Wakefield" stretch where he's pitched well enough, and hasn't gotten run support, or has had leads blown by the bullpen. But he hasn't been great, either, and he was awful in his start this week. Are the questions about it actually affecting the team? I don't know but, as a fan, they're affecting me. The sooner this is done, the better, because I really don't want to listen to it any more.
  • If the Red Sox are going to open a gap in the AL East, this is the likeliest time for it to happen. They're hosting the Yankees, with New York coming in having played three games in two days, while the Sox have had two scheduled days off. (Scheduled in the sense that they knew, leaving the park on Saturday night, that they weren't playing either Sunday or Monday.) They'll start the series with at least a 1 1/2 game lead, meaning that a sweep would have them at least 4 1/2 up on Friday morning.
  • Getting swept, on the other hand, would leave them only 1 1/2 back, and still with the schedule advantage and the tie-breaker. If the Yankees want to win the division, this series is much more important for them than it is for the Sox.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - When the team left Texas and Gonzalez had performed his heroics, it was pretty much a no-brainer that the award would be his, and his .393/.452/.964/1.416 is certainly impressive. Most weeks, that's good enough. But the return of David Ortiz (.550/.571/1.200/1.771) was even better. And enough better to pretty much make up for the two games that he missed on the week.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - This week, I'm giving out two co-awards. First, in his second straight strong appearance, Andrew Miller gave the team its best start of the week, allowing the Rangers only three hits and two walks over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. And, in three scoreless, and hitless, relief appearances, covering 5 2/3 innings, Alfredo Aceves continued making key contributions.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.49(1)4.01(3)0.64(1)84477952-5
Boston5.4(2)4.17(6)0.616(2)825182510
Texas5.08(3)4.35(8)0.571(3)77587659-1
Tampa Bay4.3(7)3.8(1)0.557(4)74587359-1
Los Angeles4.02(11)3.87(2)0.517(5)696472613
Detroit4.53(5)4.47(10)0.506(6)676673606
Toronto4.62(4)4.62(11)0.501(7)67666667-1
Chicago4.02(10)4.07(4)0.495(8)656666651
Cleveland4.25(9)4.38(9)0.486(9)636765652
Oakland3.98(12)4.24(7)0.472(10)63706073-3
Kansas City4.34(6)4.81(12)0.453(11)61735579-6
Seattle3.46(14)4.08(5)0.426(12)567656760
Baltimore4.27(8)5.23(14)0.408(13)537853780
Minnesota3.83(13)4.92(13)0.388(14)528156774
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10062
New York9864
Texas9171
Tampa Bay9072
Detroit8973
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10062
New York9963
Texas9171
Tampa Bay9072
Detroit8874
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Baltimore5.86(5)2.43(1)0.834(1)61610
Tampa Bay4.29(9)2.43(1)0.739(2)5243-1
Boston6.86(2)4.14(5)0.715(3)52520
Detroit4.14(10)3.14(3)0.624(4)43521
Los Angeles6.6(3)5.6(9)0.575(5)32320
New York7.33(1)6.33(11)0.567(6)3324-1
Kansas City4.67(8)4.17(6)0.552(7)33330
Chicago4(12)3.6(4)0.548(8)32320
Seattle4.86(7)4.86(7)0.5(9)4334-1
Oakland6.5(4)8.17(14)0.397(10)24331
Cleveland4.14(10)5.57(8)0.368(11)34340
Texas5(6)7.14(13)0.342(12)25341
Toronto3.33(13)7(12)0.205(13)15150
Minnesota2.86(14)6(10)0.205(13)16160

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