Monday, September 19, 2011

Monday Pythagorean 9/19/2011

Staggering to the finish line? If they make it there at all after another 2-4 week...

  • We've a wonderful example here of averages lying. The Red Sox scored 6 runs per game this week, 2nd in the AL. But. 18 of the 36 runs they scored came in one blowout win. In the other five games, they averaged 3.6 runs per game, and went 1-4.
  • If the Red Sox end up missing the playoffs, these last two weekends will be largely responsible, as they've gone 1-6 vs. Tampa. One more in one of those six losses, and they've be in pretty good shape still. (And frankly, they're still in pretty good shape. With 10 games left, it's much better to be two up than two back.)
  • There have been some injury problems, and the pitching hasn't been great. It would be nice to have a healthy Youkilis. It would have been nice to have another start from Beckett, and a good performance from Lester, and maybe a couple of Bedard starts instead of Wakefield and/or Weiland. But. The guys who are there have been bad. The eight regulars who've played in all seven of those games (six of seven in the case of Saltalamacchia) hit .216/.283/.319/.602 over the two weekends. Shockingly, the only one of the eight who was decent was Crawford. The rest were abysmal.
    Carl Crawford                 .364/.391/.455/.846
    Jacoby Ellsbury               .276/.290/.448/.739
    David Ortiz                   .250/.357/.292/.649
    Josh Reddick                  .278/.350/.278/.628
    Marco Scutaro                 .200/.222/.320/.542
    Dustin Pedroia                .192/.250/.231/.481
    Adrian Gonzalez               .048/.259/.190/.450
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia         .100/.143/.300/.443
    Pathetic.
  • Boston has seven remaining with Baltimore and three with New York. Tampa has seven remaining with New York and three with Toronto.
  • Boston's magic number is seven.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - None
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Josh Beckett returned and pitched well in their only victory against the Rays, one of the biggest wins of the year.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.36(2)4.01(3)0.629(1)95569160-4
Texas5.24(3)4.25(5)0.594(2)91628865-3
Boston5.39(1)4.43(9)0.589(3)90628765-3
Tampa Bay4.33(7)3.76(1)0.564(4)86668567-1
Detroit4.75(4)4.36(8)0.539(5)837089646
Los Angeles4.13(10)3.88(2)0.529(6)807283693
Toronto4.68(5)4.73(11)0.496(7)757777752
Oakland4.02(12)4.26(6)0.473(8)72816984-3
Chicago4.08(11)4.34(7)0.471(9)728074782
Kansas City4.48(6)4.77(12)0.471(10)73816787-6
Cleveland4.27(8)4.55(10)0.47(11)717975754
Seattle3.4(14)4.1(4)0.415(12)638963890
Baltimore4.25(9)5.23(14)0.406(13)619062891
Minnesota3.8(13)4.97(13)0.38(14)579459922

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9864
Detroit9468
Texas9369
Boston9369
Tampa Bay9171

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9864
Detroit9468
Texas9369
Boston9369
Tampa Bay9171

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas6(2)3.17(2)0.763(1)51510
Kansas City6.67(1)4(7)0.718(2)42511
Detroit5(5)3(1)0.718(3)52520
Tampa Bay4.71(8)3.71(5)0.607(4)43430
New York4(11)3.5(4)0.561(5)33330
Baltimore4.67(9)4.17(8)0.552(6)33421
Los Angeles4.83(7)4.33(9)0.55(7)33330
Boston6(2)5.83(10)0.513(8)3324-1
Oakland3.14(13)3.29(3)0.48(9)34340
Cleveland5.33(4)6.83(13)0.389(10)24331
Toronto5(5)6.6(11)0.376(11)23321
Seattle2.83(14)3.83(6)0.365(12)24240
Chicago4.29(10)7.71(14)0.254(13)2516-1
Minnesota3.6(12)6.8(12)0.238(14)1405-1

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