Monday Pythagorean 9/19/2011

Staggering to the finish line? If they make it there at all after another 2-4 week...

• We've a wonderful example here of averages lying. The Red Sox scored 6 runs per game this week, 2nd in the AL. But. 18 of the 36 runs they scored came in one blowout win. In the other five games, they averaged 3.6 runs per game, and went 1-4.
• If the Red Sox end up missing the playoffs, these last two weekends will be largely responsible, as they've gone 1-6 vs. Tampa. One more in one of those six losses, and they've be in pretty good shape still. (And frankly, they're still in pretty good shape. With 10 games left, it's much better to be two up than two back.)
• There have been some injury problems, and the pitching hasn't been great. It would be nice to have a healthy Youkilis. It would have been nice to have another start from Beckett, and a good performance from Lester, and maybe a couple of Bedard starts instead of Wakefield and/or Weiland. But. The guys who are there have been bad. The eight regulars who've played in all seven of those games (six of seven in the case of Saltalamacchia) hit .216/.283/.319/.602 over the two weekends. Shockingly, the only one of the eight who was decent was Crawford. The rest were abysmal.
  

  Carl Crawford                 .364/.391/.455/.846
  Jacoby Ellsbury               .276/.290/.448/.739
  David Ortiz                   .250/.357/.292/.649
  Josh Reddick                  .278/.350/.278/.628
  Marco Scutaro                 .200/.222/.320/.542
  Dustin Pedroia                .192/.250/.231/.481
  Adrian Gonzalez               .048/.259/.190/.450
  Jarrod Saltalamacchia         .100/.143/.300/.443
  

  Pathetic.
• Boston has seven remaining with Baltimore and three with New York. Tampa has seven remaining with New York and three with Toronto.
• Boston's magic number is seven.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - None
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Josh Beckett returned and pitched well in their only victory against the Rays, one of the biggest wins of the year.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.36	(2)	4.01	(3)	0.629	(1)	95	56	91	60	-4
Texas	5.24	(3)	4.25	(5)	0.594	(2)	91	62	88	65	-3
Boston	5.39	(1)	4.43	(9)	0.589	(3)	90	62	87	65	-3
Tampa Bay	4.33	(7)	3.76	(1)	0.564	(4)	86	66	85	67	-1
Detroit	4.75	(4)	4.36	(8)	0.539	(5)	83	70	89	64	6
Los Angeles	4.13	(10)	3.88	(2)	0.529	(6)	80	72	83	69	3
Toronto	4.68	(5)	4.73	(11)	0.496	(7)	75	77	77	75	2
Oakland	4.02	(12)	4.26	(6)	0.473	(8)	72	81	69	84	-3
Chicago	4.08	(11)	4.34	(7)	0.471	(9)	72	80	74	78	2
Kansas City	4.48	(6)	4.77	(12)	0.471	(10)	73	81	67	87	-6
Cleveland	4.27	(8)	4.55	(10)	0.47	(11)	71	79	75	75	4
Seattle	3.4	(14)	4.1	(4)	0.415	(12)	63	89	63	89	0
Baltimore	4.25	(9)	5.23	(14)	0.406	(13)	61	90	62	89	1
Minnesota	3.8	(13)	4.97	(13)	0.38	(14)	57	94	59	92	2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	98	64
Detroit	94	68
Texas	93	69
Boston	93	69
Tampa Bay	91	71

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	98	64
Detroit	94	68
Texas	93	69
Boston	93	69
Tampa Bay	91	71

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	6	(2)	3.17	(2)	0.763	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Kansas City	6.67	(1)	4	(7)	0.718	(2)	4	2	5	1	1
Detroit	5	(5)	3	(1)	0.718	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Tampa Bay	4.71	(8)	3.71	(5)	0.607	(4)	4	3	4	3	0
New York	4	(11)	3.5	(4)	0.561	(5)	3	3	3	3	0
Baltimore	4.67	(9)	4.17	(8)	0.552	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Los Angeles	4.83	(7)	4.33	(9)	0.55	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Boston	6	(2)	5.83	(10)	0.513	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Oakland	3.14	(13)	3.29	(3)	0.48	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Cleveland	5.33	(4)	6.83	(13)	0.389	(10)	2	4	3	3	1
Toronto	5	(5)	6.6	(11)	0.376	(11)	2	3	3	2	1
Seattle	2.83	(14)	3.83	(6)	0.365	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Chicago	4.29	(10)	7.71	(14)	0.254	(13)	2	5	1	6	-1
Minnesota	3.6	(12)	6.8	(12)	0.238	(14)	1	4	0	5	-1