Monday, July 04, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 7/4/2011

Not many style points accumulated, and it looked and felt kind of iffy, but 4-2 is almost always a productive week, and this wasn't one of the exceptions...


  • Busy week. Little commentary.
  • Many of the Red Sox seemed to feel that Jon Lester was snubbed in the All Star selection process. I think I'm as big a Lester guy as there is, and I don't see it. He's been good so far, but not great, as his 3.43 ERA is not in the top 10 in the AL. He certainly hasn't been as good as Beckett or Weaver or Verlander or Haren or Masterson or Sabathia or Shields or Humber. When you can name eight AL starters who have been clearly better, there's not much of a case to be made that he's been snubbed.
  • Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz are clearly good choices. And I don't have a problem with Ellsbury going either. He's been excellent, and while I'm not certain that he's been one of the three best outfielders in the AL thus far, I'm not certain that he hasn't, either.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Since having his knee examined and medically cleared, Dustin Pedrioa has been on a tear. That continued this week, as he hit .304/.429/.478/.907 with a home run and five doubles.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The best individual game by the numbers was Josh Beckett's gem on Sunday afternoon, but he also had a bad start, and an eight-inning shutout of the Astros is less impressive than a seven-inning shutout of the Phillies. So the pitcher of the week is Jon Lester, who wasn't snubbed, but was still outstanding in his only start of the week, allowing only two hits and two walks in seven scoreless innings against Philadelphia.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.28(1)3.8(4)0.646(1)53295032-3
Boston5.23(2)4.13(7)0.606(2)50334934-1
Tampa Bay4.25(8)3.82(5)0.548(3)463847371
Texas4.75(3)4.49(9)0.526(4)45404441-1
Cleveland4.34(7)4.15(8)0.521(5)433944381
Los Angeles3.8(11)3.71(3)0.511(6)434244411
Toronto4.52(5)4.51(10)0.501(7)43424144-2
Detroit4.59(4)4.61(11)0.498(8)424345403
Chicago4.04(10)4.08(6)0.495(9)424342430
Seattle3.4(14)3.48(1)0.491(10)414341430
Oakland3.52(13)3.65(2)0.483(11)41443847-3
Kansas City4.4(6)5.04(14)0.439(12)37473450-3
Baltimore4.09(9)4.84(13)0.423(13)344736452
Minnesota3.77(12)4.71(12)0.4(14)334936463

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9963
Boston9666
Tampa Bay9171
Cleveland8775
Detroit8676

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10260
Boston9765
Tampa Bay9072
Cleveland8676
Texas8478

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.67(1)1.67(1)0.904(1)51510
Los Angeles4.33(7)2.5(2)0.732(2)42511
Cleveland5.17(3)3.67(8)0.652(3)42420
Boston4.17(8)3.17(6)0.623(4)42420
Chicago3.17(11)2.67(4)0.578(5)33421
Seattle2.83(14)2.5(2)0.557(6)3324-1
Tampa Bay3.83(10)3.5(7)0.542(7)33330
Texas5.67(1)5.33(10)0.528(8)33330
Oakland3.17(11)3(5)0.525(9)33330
Toronto4(9)4.86(9)0.412(10)3425-1
Minnesota4.83(4)6(12)0.402(11)24422
Kansas City4.67(6)6.33(13)0.364(12)2415-1
Detroit4.71(5)8(14)0.275(13)25341
Baltimore3(13)5.5(11)0.248(14)15150

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