Monday, June 27, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 6/27/2011

There are always going to be some ups and downs in the course of a long season, but four straight to San Diego and Pittsburgh? Ugh...


  • Sometimes, on small sample sizes, the numbers don't add up. This is one of those weeks, as the runs scored and allowed aren't all that bad, but they're skewed badly by a 10 run win to start the week. Back-to-back one run performances out of this vaunted offense aren't going to happen very often, but the team looks pretty ugly when they do.
  • Obviously, it doesn't help to remove the DH from the lineup and insert the pitcher, but you can't blame that for much of the offensive performance. (It also doesn't help to have a home game called after 7 1/2 because of bad weather.)
  • What they did have, offensively, was rotten timing and big holes. They only hit three HR for the week, so they needed to string a lot of positive events together to score runs, and they failed to do so. Last week, their timing was such that they outscored their runs created. This week, they fell way short, creating almost 33 runs but scoring only 28. There were a lot of base runner through the first four batters in the lineup, but five and six were dreadful, no matter which hitters were in those spots. And it seemed as if every inning started with two outs, or at least that every rally was a two-out rally, so that a key hit was always needed and rarely forthcoming.
  • That affair in Pittsburgh was as sloppy a game as I've seen in quite a while. I was in Lowell last night watching the short season 'A' ball New York-Penn league contest between the Lowell Spinners and the Vermont Lake Monsters, and it was much crisper, better played game than the big boys had played earlier. The ball that Will Middlebrooks hit out to left-center in the 2nd probably didn't go quite as far as the ball that David Ortiz hit, but at least it was fair.
  • I dislike inter-league play. Other than my normal Red Sox interest, I'm not interested in the Phillies series, because whatever happens, there's going to be far too much hype and far too much extrapolation, all based on essentially nothing.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - As noted earlier, the top four were all good, and the best was Adrian Gonzalez (.500/.552/.654/1.206). But even his timing was off, as he stranded several baserunners in key situations.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - (Soon to be renamed the "Not John Lackey" award...) In a week without any particularly stellar performances, they got two good ones in their only two wins on the week, from newcomer Andrew Miller. His command wasn't perfect, but it was better than he's shown in Detroit or Florida, and he gave reason to be optimistic, as well as a timely appearance as Buchholz hit the DL and Beckett skipped a start because of sickness. If this is what Miller's capable of being, and not just a small sample fluke, it's a great pickup by the Sox.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.25(2)3.97(5)0.625(1)47294531-2
Boston5.31(1)4.21(8)0.605(2)47304532-2
Tampa Bay4.28(7)3.85(4)0.549(3)433544341
Detroit4.58(4)4.31(9)0.528(4)413742361
Texas4.68(3)4.43(10)0.525(5)42374138-1
Cleveland4.28(8)4.18(6)0.51(6)393740361
Toronto4.56(5)4.47(11)0.509(7)40383939-1
Los Angeles3.76(11)3.8(3)0.495(8)394039400
Chicago4.1(10)4.19(7)0.49(9)39403841-1
Seattle3.45(14)3.55(1)0.487(10)384039391
Oakland3.54(13)3.7(2)0.481(11)38413544-3
Kansas City4.38(6)4.94(14)0.446(12)35433345-2
Baltimore4.17(9)4.79(13)0.438(13)334235402
Minnesota3.68(12)4.61(12)0.399(14)304632442

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9666
Boston9567
Tampa Bay9171
Detroit8775
Cleveland8577

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9963
Boston9666
Tampa Bay9072
Detroit8676
Texas8577

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay6.83(1)4.17(7)0.712(1)42511
Los Angeles4.33(7)3(3)0.662(2)42420
Detroit4.67(4)4.17(7)0.552(3)33330
Boston4.67(4)4.33(9)0.534(4)3324-1
New York4.5(6)4.33(9)0.517(5)33421
Oakland2.5(13)2.5(1)0.5(6)3324-1
Seattle2.5(13)2.5(1)0.5(6)3324-1
Texas5.67(2)5.83(13)0.487(8)33330
Toronto3(10)3.17(4)0.475(9)33330
Baltimore5.33(3)6(14)0.446(10)33330
Chicago3.17(9)3.67(5)0.433(11)33330
Cleveland3(10)3.83(6)0.39(12)2415-1
Kansas City3.33(8)4.33(9)0.382(13)24240
Minnesota2.83(12)5(12)0.261(14)2415-1

Labels: ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link