Monday, August 15, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 8/15/2011

A relentlessly mediocre week, in which they did nothing very well and nothing very poorly, ends up with the expected 3-3 record...

  • The offense had one of those weeks, with excellent production from Ortiz and Gonzalez, and not much else. Some of the backups had good performances in few at-bats, but there wasn't a lot of production from anyone else, and it showed, as they lost three games in which they only allowed five runs. Not that five runs is a great pitching performance, but you'd expect a team with this team's offense to win more often than not when allowing five. This week, they were 1-3 when the opposition scored 5+.
  • That's not to say that only the offense wasn't good, because the pitching wasn't good, either. If it seemed as if they were playing from behind every day, well, that's because they were pretty much playing from behind every day. The starters finished the week with a 5.17 ERA and just over six innings of work per game.
  • They've had their share of good luck this year. They had a couple of different pieces of bad luck yesterday. One was the "safe" call at second base yesterday when Lowrie may (or may not) have missed the bag. Whether one likes it or not, that call virtually always goes to the fielder, even in cases much more egregious than that one. And it may not have even been technically correct, as Lowrie claims to have touched the bag, and there's no visual evidence disproving that. A bad call, and it helped produce a three-run lead that they never quite overcame.
  • The other piece of bad luck came in the Bronx, when the Yankees-Rays game was rained out, meaning that a) New York missed a game against James Shields and b) the Red Sox picked up a game against James Shields.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - David Ortiz (.500/.577/.955/1.531) had far and away the most productive week of the position players.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - No blowout wins, no great starting performances, so, as much as I don't care for "saves" as a stat, this looks like Jonathan Papelbon's week. He saved all three of their wins, giving up only one hit in three innings of work with three strikeouts. With two 2-run leads and a 1-run lead, all three games were losable, but he allowed almost nothing, and closed them quickly. (With "quickly" being a relative term with Papelbon on the mound...)


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.36(2)3.87(2)0.644(1)76427246-4
Boston5.41(1)4.21(8)0.613(2)734673460
Texas5.14(3)4.2(7)0.592(3)72496952-3
Tampa Bay4.27(8)3.95(4)0.536(4)645564550
Los Angeles3.85(13)3.76(1)0.511(5)625965563
Toronto4.69(4)4.59(11)0.51(6)615961590
Cleveland4.27(7)4.26(9)0.502(7)595860571
Chicago3.99(10)4.09(5)0.489(8)596160601
Detroit4.44(5)4.56(10)0.488(9)596164565
Oakland3.9(11)4.09(5)0.478(10)57635367-4
Kansas City4.33(6)4.79(12)0.454(11)55665071-5
Seattle3.36(14)3.88(3)0.434(12)526752670
Minnesota3.87(12)4.8(13)0.402(13)487152674
Baltimore4.16(9)5.32(14)0.389(14)467246720

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9963
Boston9963
Texas9270
Tampa Bay8775
Los Angeles8775

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10062
Boston9963
Texas9369
Tampa Bay8775
Los Angeles8676

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas7(1)3.33(3)0.795(1)51510
Cleveland4.4(7)2.4(1)0.752(2)41410
New York5.8(2)4.2(6)0.644(3)32320
Tampa Bay4.17(10)3.17(2)0.623(4)42511
Chicago4.71(5)4.14(5)0.559(5)43521
Toronto4.83(4)4.83(9)0.5(6)33330
Boston4.5(6)4.67(8)0.483(7)33330
Baltimore5(3)5.29(10)0.475(8)3425-1
Minnesota3.4(13)4(4)0.426(9)2314-1
Seattle4.33(8)5.33(11)0.406(10)24331
Detroit4.17(10)5.5(12)0.376(11)24331
Oakland4.33(8)5.83(13)0.367(12)24240
Los Angeles4.17(10)6(14)0.339(13)24240
Kansas City2.86(14)4.29(7)0.323(14)2516-1

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