Monday, September 26, 2011

Monday Pythagorean 9/26/2011

One way or another, for good or for ill, this regular season is going to be over before the week is. One way or another, for good or for ill, the Red Sox cannot get out of this September soon enough...

  • How dismal has this 6-18 month been? They lost two games between wins on the 3rd and 6th. They lost two games between wins on the 13th and 16th. That's as close as they came to a winning streak.
  • The Red Sox played baseball games on five days this week. They lost a game on all five. The two wins were both the second halves of double headers.
  • Jekyll or Hyde? In two stretchs (2-10 to start, 6-18 in September) they played .222 ball for 36 games. In the 123 games in between, they were a .659 team, 81-42.
  • The second game In New York on Sunday was only the second time in the month of September that the Red Sox won a game without scoring 12 or more runs. It was also the first time all month that they scored between 5 and 10 runs.
  • The Red Sox' magic number is three. They need Tampa lose at least as many games at home against New York as the Red Sox lose in Baltimore against the Orioles. If the Sox go 3-0, it doesn't matter what the Rays do. If the Sox lose 1, they need the Rays to lose 1. If Boston loses 1 more than Tampa, they'll have a playoff game on Thursday. If Boston loses two more than Tampa, the Rays win the Wild Card. (All of this assumes that the Angels lose one or the Red Sox win one. If Boston loses three, the Angels win three and the Rays lose two, there will be a three-way tie, and I'm not going to go through the playoff scenarios that result from that right now. If Boston and Tampa get swept and the Angels sweep, the Sox and Angels would have a one-game playoff on Thursday.)
  • Tough to overstate the importance of Beckett pitching well tonight. The importance of the game in the standings goes without saying, but, in addition to that, the bullpen threw 12 innings yesterday. Beckett needs to pitch well and pitch long.
  • Some offense would help, too...
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Jacoby Ellsbury hit .382/.400/.765/1.165, and capped off his week with the 14th inning three-run HR that was crucial to getting out of New York with a lead in the playoff hunt.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - When the best start of the week comes from John Lackey, you know that none of the starters are getting it. So the award splits this week, between Alfredo Aceves (6 1/3) and Scott Atchison (7 1/3), who combined for 13 2/3 innings of scoreless relief.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.38(2)4.02(3)0.63(1)100599762-3
Texas5.3(3)4.22(5)0.603(2)95639266-3
Boston5.42(1)4.53(9)0.581(3)92678970-3
Tampa Bay4.36(9)3.78(1)0.565(4)89698870-1
Detroit4.8(4)4.42(8)0.538(5)857391676
Los Angeles4.18(10)3.88(2)0.534(6)847486722
Toronto4.66(5)4.77(12)0.49(7)778179792
Kansas City4.55(6)4.75(11)0.481(8)76826989-7
Cleveland4.39(7)4.61(10)0.478(9)768380794
Oakland4.01(12)4.27(6)0.472(10)75837187-4
Chicago4.09(11)4.35(7)0.471(11)748477813
Seattle3.49(14)4.17(4)0.42(12)669266920
Baltimore4.37(8)5.33(14)0.411(13)659367912
Minnesota3.85(13)4.99(13)0.384(14)619861980
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9963
Texas9468
Detroit9369
Boston9171
Tampa Bay9072
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9963
Texas9468
Detroit9369
Boston9171
Tampa Bay9072
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas7.4(1)3.2(1)0.823(1)41410
Kansas City7.25(2)3.75(2)0.77(2)3122-1
New York5.75(8)4.13(4)0.647(3)53621
Los Angeles5.33(9)3.83(3)0.647(4)4233-1
Tampa Bay5.17(10)4.17(5)0.597(5)4233-1
Cleveland6.75(4)5.63(9)0.583(6)53540
Detroit6.4(5)6.2(12)0.515(7)3223-1
Seattle5.83(7)6(11)0.487(8)33330
Baltimore7(3)7.43(14)0.473(9)34522
Chicago4.33(12)4.67(7)0.466(10)33330
Minnesota4.86(11)5.43(8)0.449(11)3426-1
Boston6(6)6.71(13)0.449(12)3425-1
Oakland3.8(14)4.4(6)0.433(13)23230
Toronto4(13)5.67(10)0.346(14)24240

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