Monday, August 01, 2011

Monday Pythagorean, 8/1/2011

4-3, given where they are is a) disappointing, given the competition and b) perfectly acceptable...

  • The lead over the Yankees dropped by one game this week. Of course, as feeble as the Red Sox' competition was, it was much better than the competition the Yankees faced, with seven - at home - against Baltimore and Seattle. Losing two of those was as bad as Boston's losing three to KC and Chicago.
  • I hated the Harden trade. Not that Lars Anderson is ever going to get a chance to do anything in a Boston uniform, but you ought to be able to get something useful for him, and it's hard to imagine getting anything from Harden at this point. After looking at his medical information, they apparently came to the same conclusion, and the deal fell through.
  • I have no strong feelings about the Bedard trade. He has, at times, been an effective Major League pitcher. He missed all of 2010, and, before Friday night's awful start, hadn't pitched in a month, but before going down with a sprained knee, he'd been excellent. [Ignore the 4-6 W-L record - Seattle can't score.] It's impossible to say for sure what he's got left, but if Buchholz is done for the season (and at this point, that's a legitimate concern), Bedard is one of the few available starters that has the potential to be a difference maker. On the other side, I've got no strong opinions about any of the minor leaguers they gave up for him. A cursory glance reveals no reason to expect any of the four to ever make an impact in the Majors (though Chiang, who is hitting .338/.399/.647/1.046 in his second year in Portland, may spend some time in the show, and I know some people who think highly of Fife.) In fact, it's fair to say that, as I finish making this comment, I like the trade better - much better - than I did when I started it.
  • The Red Sox finish the month of July with a stellar 20-6 record on the backs of a few outstanding individual performances. The best of these was probably Dustin Pedroia's .411/.465/.723/1.188 (looking for another MVP?), while Adrian Gonzalez (.373/.449/.500/.949) continued hot. But the most encouraging, to me, was Jacoby Ellsbury, whose .382/.430/.700/1.130 was a better month than I ever expected him to put together. He's definitely exceeded my expectations, and is living up to, if not exceeding, the hopes and dreams of the organization.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - The players that had great Julys were great this week, led by Dustin Pedroia, who continued to play stellar defense while putting up a .433/.457/.733/1.190 line.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - A couple more scoreless innings from Daniel Bard, a couple of clutch outings from Alfredo Aceves, and the bullpen just keeps on rolling. But the big news was the successful return of Jon Lester, who allowed only three runs in 13 1/3 innings in two excellent starts on the week, showing no rust or other ill effects of his stint on the DL.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.28(2)3.87(2)0.639(1)68386442-4
Boston5.53(1)4.18(7)0.625(2)664066400
Texas5.03(3)4.2(8)0.581(3)63466148-2
Tampa Bay4.24(7)3.96(5)0.531(4)57505651-1
Los Angeles3.86(12)3.67(1)0.523(5)575259502
Toronto4.72(4)4.56(11)0.516(6)56525553-1
Detroit4.48(5)4.54(10)0.494(7)535557514
Chicago3.93(11)4(6)0.492(8)525452540
Oakland3.84(13)3.94(4)0.489(9)53554959-4
Cleveland4.19(8)4.3(9)0.488(10)515453522
Kansas City4.42(6)4.85(13)0.457(11)49594662-3
Seattle3.26(14)3.89(3)0.42(12)456245620
Minnesota3.94(10)4.79(12)0.412(13)456350585
Baltimore4.1(9)5.33(14)0.381(14)406542632

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10161
New York9864
Texas9171
Los Angeles8874
Detroit8676

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10161
New York10062
Texas9270
Los Angeles8775
Tampa Bay8577

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York6.71(2)3.57(1)0.76(1)52520
Boston6.43(3)4.14(3)0.691(2)5243-1
Oakland7.71(1)5(9)0.689(3)52520
Texas6(4)4.71(7)0.609(4)4334-1
Kansas City5.71(5)5.29(10)0.536(5)43430
Los Angeles4(11)4(2)0.5(6)43430
Toronto4.17(9)4.17(4)0.5(6)33421
Tampa Bay5.43(6)5.43(11)0.5(6)4334-1
Detroit4.57(8)4.71(7)0.486(9)34340
Chicago3.33(12)4.17(4)0.399(10)24331
Minnesota5.43(6)7.71(14)0.345(11)25341
Baltimore4.14(10)6.57(13)0.301(12)25250
Seattle2.83(13)5.67(12)0.22(13)15241
Cleveland2.17(14)4.33(6)0.22(14)15241

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