Magic numbers, 9/29/2013

Saturday's Games:

Baltimore 6, Boston 5
Seattle 7, Oakland 5

The Boston Red Sox have clinched the best record in the American League. They have also clinched the best record in Major League Baseball, but that does not matter for playoff seeding purposes.  (The St. Louis Cardinals could match them with a Boston loss and St. Louis win on the final day.)


Boston will open the playoffs at home on Friday, 10/4, against the winner of the AL Wild Card, which will be Cleveland, Texas or Tampa.

Magic numbers, 9/28/2013

Friday's Games:

Boston 12, Baltimore 3
Oakland 8, Seattle 2
Miami 3, Detroit 2

If Boston wins 1 of their remaining 2 games (1-1, .500, 98 wins):

Detroit cannot tie
Oakland cannot tie

AL East:

The Boston Red Sox are AL East Champions!

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 1 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Detroit's loss in Miami eliminated the Tigers from the top spot in the AL about 20 minutes before Boston's win in Baltimore, which would have done the same thing, went final. The 3-way tie for the best record, and the Boston-Detroit tie for the best record, are off the table. It locks the Tigers in as the 3rd seed in the AL. (They could finish with the same record as Oakland, but the A's won the season series between the two teams, 4-3.)

It also ensures that the Red Sox open at home. As will the A's. Boston will either finish with the best record in the AL, or they'll finish tied with Oakland and lose the tie-breaker.

In either case, Boston will host one of the AL Division series. If Boston loses its next two and Oakland wins its next two, they'll finish the season tied at 97 wins. In that case, the Red Sox would be the 2nd seed, and would host the Detroit Tigers in the Division Series, while the A's would host the Wild Card winner. If the Red Sox win another, or Oakland loses another, then the A's would host the Tigers while the Red Sox host the Wild Card winner.

Magic numbers, 9/26/2013

Wednesday's Games:

Boston 15, Colorado 5
LAA 3, Oakland 1
Detroit 1, Minnesota 0

If Boston wins 1 of their remaining 3 games (1-2, .333, 97 wins):

Detroit cannot tie
Oakland must go 3-0 to tie

AL East:

The Boston Red Sox are AL East Champions!

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 1 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 2 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Remaining schedule:

Boston has three games in Baltimore against the 82-76 (.519) Orioles

Oakland has three games in Seattle against the 70-89 (.440) Mariners

Detroit has three games in Miami against the 59-100 (.371) Marlins

Tie-breaker scenarios:

Season series head-to-head records:

Boston 3, Oakland 3
Detroit 4, Boston 3
Oakland 4, Detroit 3

• 3-way tie at 96-66: I believe that this would result in the following: "Club 1 [Detroit] has a better record against Club 2 [Boston], Club 2 [Boston] and 3 [Oakland] have identical records against one another and Club 3 [Oakland] has a better record against Club 1 [Detroit]". This means that "The Clubs will be ranked by their overall winning percentage amongst the other Clubs combined," so Boston would be the 3rd seed by virtue of going 6-7 vs. Detroit and Oakland, where the other two each went 7-6 among those games. Detroit would be the top seed based on a better record in the Central than Oakland has in the West.



• 2-way tie (Boston-Detroit) at 96-66: Oakland is the third seed. Detroit is the top seed by virtue of going 4-3 vs. Boston head-to-head.



• 2-way tie (Boston-Oakland) at 96-66: Detroit is the third seed. Oakland is the top seed by virtue of going 44-32 in the West while Boston went 43-33 in the East.



• 2-way tie at 97-65: Detroit is the third seed. Oakland is the top seed by virtue of going 45-31 in the West while Boston went 44-32 in the East.

So it appears that the Red Sox lose any tie-breakers.  They need to finish with the best record to get the top seed.

Let me say this - the breaking of ties between teams in different divisions based on their records inside their own division is patently ridiculous in a situation like this. Given the dramatically unbalanced schedules teams play, there can be significant differences in the competition level. Oakland played 76 games against the other Western division teams, and the Red Sox played 76 games against the other Eastern division teams. So Oakland's "tie-breaker record" was compiled in 76 games against teams that are currently 286-348 (.451) while Boston's was compiled in 76 games against teams that are 325-307 (.514). So not only would the Athletics have tied Boston based on a much-easier schedule, they would then win that tie-breaker based on their record against the inferior division opponents that allowed them to tie in the first place.

In fact, Boston has played better against the East than Oakland has (.589 vs. .531) and Boston has played better against the West than Oakland has (.625 vs. .575) and Boston has played better against the East and West combined than Oakland has (.600 vs. .562).  [Boston also played better in inter-league play than Oakland did (.700 vs .650). Oakland did play better against the AL Central than the Red Sox, but that's the only divisional play advantage for the A's.] A tie-breaker that compares Oakland's record in the weak West to Boston's record in the strong East, when Boston has a better record against those divisions, individually and cumulatively, than the A's do, is patently absurd¹.

If Boston wins two in Baltimore, of course, or if they win one+ and Oakland loses one+, then it's all moot. But silly anyway.



All three teams have the night off, so there will not be a magic number report on Friday.  The next report will be on Saturday morning.






¹ - Not a first for baseball, of course, as those of us who remember the Red Sox finishing 1/2 a game behind Detroit in 1972 because they played one fewer game, or the Yankees winning the World Series in 1981 despite finishing with the 4th best record in the AL East, well know...

Magic numbers, 9/25/2013

Tuesday's Games:

Colorado 8, Boston 3
LAA 3, Oakland 0
Detroit 4, Minnesota 2

If Boston wins 2 of their remaining 4 games (2-2, .500, 97 wins):

Detroit cannot tie
Oakland must go 3-1 to tie

AL East:

The Boston Red Sox are AL East Champions!

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 2 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 4 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Magic numbers, 9/24/2013

Monday's Games:

Boston idle
Oakland 10, LAA 5
Minnesota 4, Detroit 3

If Boston wins 2 of their remaining 5 games (2-3, .400, 97 wins):

Detroit cannot tie
Oakland must go 3-2 to tie

AL East:

The Boston Red Sox are AL East Champions!

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 2 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 5 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Magic numbers, 9/23/2013

Sunday's Games:

Boston 5, Toronto 2
Oakland 11, Minnesota 7
Chicago WS 6, Detroit 3

If Boston wins 2 of their remaining 5 games (2-3, .400, 97 wins):

Detroit must go 6-0 to tie
Oakland must go 4-2 to tie

AL East:

The Boston Red Sox are AL East Champions!

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 3 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 5 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Magic numbers, 9/22/2013

Saturday's Games:

Toronto 4, Boston 2
Oakland 9 , Minnesota 1
Detroit 7 , Chicago WS 6

If Boston wins 2 of their remaining 6 games (2-4, .333, 96 wins):

Detroit must go 5-2 to tie
Oakland must go 4-3 to tie

AL East:

The Boston Red Sox are AL East Champions!

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 5 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 6 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Magic numbers, 9/21/2013

Friday's Games:

Boston 6, Toronto 3 - Red Sox clinch the East with this win!
Oakland 11 , Minnesota 0
Detroit 12 , Chicago WS 5

Tampa, Baltimore, NY Yankees results are all irrelevant now.


If Boston wins 2 of their remaining 7 games (2-5, .286, 96 wins):

Detroit must go 7-2 to tie
Oakland must go 6-3 to tie

AL East:

The Boston Red Sox are AL East Champions!

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 5 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 6 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Magic numbers, 9/20/2013

Thursday's Games:

Boston 3,Baltimore 1
Texas 8, Tampa 2
Oakland 8, Minnesota 6
Detroit 5, Seattle 4

If Boston wins 3 of their remaining 8 games (3-5, .375, 96 wins):

Tampa Bay cannot tie
Baltimore cannot tie
NY Yankees cannot tie

Detroit must go 7-2 to tie
Oakland must go 6-3 to tie

AL East:

Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 1 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 6 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 7 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Thoughts:

• In their last two wins, the Red Sox have eliminated the Yankees and Orioles from division contention. Not that either was really in it, at this point, but it was still satisfying to eliminate them head-to-head.
• Everyone is acknowledging that the Red Sox have clinched a playoff spot, which is clear - they've won 93 games, and only four other AL teams still have a shot at getting to 93.  So they will definitely play October baseball.  What is not clear to me is whether they have clinched the division, too.  Tampa is one of the team's that can get to 93, so the two teams could still finish in a tie.  But, given that the only possible tie is at 93 wins, getting them both in to the post-season, and given that Boston took the season series between the two clubs (12-7), it seems as if Boston has already clinched the "division winner" playoff spot.  Maybe MLB has changed the rules with the one-game Wild Card playoff, and they'd have to have a one-game playoff for the division with the loser playing the Wild Card playoff.  (Update:  Apparently, that's true.  "If just one game is needed to settle the issue, it will tentatively be played on Monday, Sept. 30. That applies to determining the division championship whether or not the losing team would still qualify as a Wild Card."  That game would be played in Boston.)
• Unless Boston goes 0-8 while Tampa goes 10-0, the preceding was entirely academic.
• One can make the case that last night's game was John Lackey's best start in a Red Sox uniform.  It's only his second complete game, and it is the first time that he's gone 9 innings (his other CG was 8 scoreless² innings in a loss in LA earlier this season).  He has had three starts in which he allowed no runs, but two of those were shorter than 7 innings and the third was 8 (in 2010).  Using Bill James' Game Scores¹, he scored an 85 last night, which is his highest game score in a Boston uniform.  (The previous high was 81, in an 8-inning, 1 run, 0 earned performance against Seattle in 2010.)

¹ - It's kind of a toy, but an interesting one.

1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add one point for each out recorded, so three points for every complete inning pitched.
3. Add two points for each inning completed after the fourth.
4. Add one point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract two points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract four points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract two points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract one point for each walk.

² - Update:  Oops.  Obviously, MLB's next "scoreless loss" will be its first...

Magic numbers, 9/19/2013

Wednesday's Games:

Baltimore 5, Boston 3
Tampa 4, Texas 3
LAA 5 , Oakland4
Seattle 8, Detroit 0

If Boston wins 4 of their remaining 9 games (4-5, .444, 96 wins):

Tampa Bay cannot tie
Baltimore cannot tie
NY Yankees cannot tie

Detroit must go 8-2 to tie
Oakland must go 7-3 to tie

AL East:

Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 3 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 1 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 7 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 8 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Magic numbers, 9/18/2013

Tuesday's results:

Baltimore 3, Boston 2
Texas 7, Tampa 1
Detroit 6, Seattle 2
Oakland 2, LAA 1

If Boston wins 4 of their remaining 10 games (4-6, .400, 96 wins):

Tampa Bay cannot tie
Baltimore cannot tie

Detroit must go 8-3 to tie
Oakland must go 7-4 to tie

AL East:

Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 3 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 1 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore

Best record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 8 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 9 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Thoughts:

• The Uehara run ended, as it had to.  Not only did he give up a hit, he gave up a run and took the loss.  The frustrating part was that it was a ball that Ellsbury would have caught, and Victorino should have.  He was there and just missed it.  If he catches that, they go to the bottom of the 9th tied, and the Uehara streak is at 40 consecutive batters retired.  Ah, well...
• It was interesting to watch the final at-bat.  Johnson missed with the first two pitches, but the umpire called the second pitch a strike.  Johnson then threw two more pitches in the same spot as the second one, and Bogaerts went ahead to swing at them.  If the second pitch is (correctly, IMO) called a ball, then it's 2-0, and he probably doesn't swing at the next two pitches.  Ah, well...

Magic numbers, 9/17/2013

Monday's results:

Boston idle
Tampa 6, Texas 2
Baltimore idle
Detroit 4, Seattle 2
LAA 12, Oakland 1

If Boston wins 4 of their remaining 11 games (4-7, .364, 96 wins):

Tampa Bay cannot tie
Baltimore cannot tie

Detroit must go 9-3 to tie
Oakland must go 8-4 to tie

AL East:

Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 4 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 1 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore

Best Record in AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 8 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 9 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Monday pythagorean, 9/16/2013

5-1 is always a good week. 5-1 against division competition, half of it on the road, in September, to put the division away, including a three-game sweep of the Yankees that eliminates them from the division race, is a great week...

• What a difference a year makes. On September 15, 2012, the Red Sox beat Toronto 3-2, raising their record to 66-80, 16 1/2 games behind the first place Yankees. On September 15, 2013, the Red Sox completed a three-game sweep of the Yankees, finished taking 6-of-7 from the Yankees in September, and eliminated the Yankees from contention in the AL East.


• They don't really need any help in the division race at this point. Boston has 11 games remaining, and only needs to win four to take the East, regardless of what the Rays and O's do.


• It would have been nice to get some help in the AL Best Record race this weekend from Texas, who were 3 1/2 games behind the AL West first place A's, and hosting them with a chance to tighten that division race significantly. Instead, the Rangers rolled over and let the A's, for all intents and purposes, put the West away. The Red Sox still have an edge, but the race for the AL's best record is close.


• The Ellsbury news is relatively positive - the swelling has gone down, he's started baseball activity, and they expect him back before the regular season ends.


• The Buchholz news is extremely positive. With two more starts in the regular season, he should be pretty close to fully stretched out for the post-season. Fully stretched out, close to mid-season form, and extremely well-rested. That could be a good combination.


• The Red Sox, after struggling mightily in the last two Septembers, are now 11-3 in September of 2013, which has allowed them to open up a huge lead in the East. Oakland is still close, though, largely because the A's are also 11-3 in September.


• Because I've heard other people talking about it, let's just note, for the record, that a) the Red Sox have never won 100 games since the AL expanded in 1961, b) the last time the Red Sox won 100 games was the 104 wins of the legendary 1946 team and c) if this team goes 8-3 in its last 11 games, it will finish with a record of 100-62.


• Yes, I've got enough superstition remaining to feel like it's asking for trouble to even mention it.


• Have I mentioned yet that last night's Red Sox win against the Yankees, their 6th in 7 tries over the last week and a half, eliminated the Yankees from contention in the AL East?


• For the first time since he returned from his (brief) Minor League exile, Will Middlebrooks (.000/.000/.000/.000 in 17 at-bats, -2.07 runs created, -2.88 RC/25 outs) really struggled. That, in and of itself, is not a big deal - it happens to everyone. David Ortiz had a week much like that within the last month. The concern with Middlebrooks is that it either represents, or causes, a reversion to the pre-exilic bad habits that rendered him useless offensively. This is, therefore, a big week for Will, and the team, on that front.


• The game of the week was Tuesday's thriller in Tampa, featuring the return of Clay Buchholz vs. David Price and the Rays. This is what I wrote on Wednesday: Tuesday night's win was huge for Boston.
  
  • Buchholz was outstanding for five innings in his first start in over three months.
  • They beat David Price.  (They also made him throw 127 pitches, which may be a positive externality for the Twins when they face the Rays on Sunday.)
  • The won the game that looked, going in, like the best pitching matchup in the series for Tampa.  (Tonight's Cobb vs. Dempster matchup also favors Tampa, but good as Cobb has been, he isn't Price, not yet anyway.  And the Red Sox had no idea what they'd get from Buchholz, and knew going in that the bullpen would be in early.)
  • They went in to the series with a 7 1/2 game lead - last night's win ensures that they'll leave Tampa with at least 6 1/2 games of that lead still in place.  The Rays, to have a realistic chance of winning the division, needed to sweep Boston.  The Red Sox have already done everything in this series, and everything on this road trip, that they needed to do, regardless of what happens the next two nights.


• It takes a Grand Slam to go from a tie-game to a four-run lead on one play. The Red Sox did it twice this week, Carp (pinch-hitting) against the Rays and then Saltalamacchia against the Yankees. And each time, it was the game's last scoring.


• Magic Number report:
  

  Sunday's Games:
  

  Boston 9, NY Yankees 2
  Minnesota 6, Tampa 4
  Baltimore 3, Toronto 1
  Oakland 5, Texas 1
  Detroit 3, Kansas City 2

  If Boston wins 5 of their remaining 11 games (5-6, .455, 97 wins):
  

  Tampa Bay cannot tie
  Baltimore cannot tie
  NY Yankees cannot tie
  
  Detroit must go 11-2 to tie
  Oakland must go 9-4 to tie

  
  AL East:
  

  Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 4 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay
  Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 1 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore
  
  Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 8 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
  Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 10 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

The Red Sox are not yet mathematically guaranteed a post-season berth, though the odds of them not making it are vanishingly small. They are guaranteed, however to finish no worse than 2nd in the East, as they've eliminated the Yankees, and the Orioles and Rays cannot both get to 92 wins. One or the other could, but not both, as they've got four head-to-head remaining. They will have mathematically clinched when they eliminate Texas (magic number = 4) or Cleveland (magic number = 3). With Texas in Tampa for the next four days, and Baltimore in Boston from Tuesday-Thursday, they are likely to have clinched a playoff berth before the weekend, and to have clinched the East before next Monday.

Red Sox Player of the Week - On a per-plate appearance basis, the best two weeks were had by Mike Napoli (.333/.524/.667/1.190, 5.22 runs created, 13.06 RC/25 outs) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.333/.400/.917/1.317, 4.58 runs created, 12.71 RC/25 outs). But due to playing time and lineup position, the most productivity came from Daniel Nava (.500/.476/.600/1.076, 5.25 runs created, 10.09 RC/25 outs). Any of them would be worthy, and I'm going to go with Daniel Nava.

Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - He's back, almost as if he never went away. Two starts, two wins, 11 innings and only one un-earned run for Clay Buchholz.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/16/2013

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.24	(1)	4.03	(6)	0.617	(1)	93	58	92	59	-1
Detroit	5.02	(2)	3.89	(3)	0.615	(2)	92	57	86	63	-6
Oakland	4.62	(4)	3.85	(2)	0.583	(3)	87	62	88	61	1
Texas	4.45	(7)	4	(4)	0.548	(4)	81	67	81	67	0
Cleveland	4.56	(5)	4.17	(7)	0.541	(5)	81	68	81	68	0
Baltimore	4.67	(3)	4.36	(9)	0.531	(6)	79	70	79	70	0
Tampa Bay	4.28	(9)	4	(4)	0.531	(7)	79	69	81	67	2
Kansas City	4.03	(11)	3.79	(1)	0.528	(8)	79	70	78	71	-1
LA Angels	4.56	(6)	4.6	(11)	0.496	(9)	74	75	72	77	-2
NY Yankees	4.13	(10)	4.23	(8)	0.489	(10)	73	77	79	71	6
Toronto	4.44	(8)	4.75	(14)	0.469	(11)	70	79	68	81	-2
Minnesota	3.87	(13)	4.69	(12)	0.413	(12)	61	87	64	84	3
Chicago Sox	3.64	(15)	4.44	(10)	0.411	(13)	61	88	58	91	-3
Seattle	3.85	(14)	4.7	(13)	0.41	(14)	61	88	66	83	5
Houston	3.96	(12)	5.21	(15)	0.377	(15)	56	93	51	98	-5

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	99	63
Oakland	96	66
Detroit	94	68
Texas	89	73
Tampa Bay	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	99	63
Oakland	96	66
Detroit	94	68
Texas	89	73
Cleveland	88	74

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	7.33	(1)	3	(3)	0.837	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Boston	5.67	(4)	2.33	(2)	0.835	(2)	5	1	5	1	0
Cleveland	5.86	(3)	3	(3)	0.773	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Houston	6.17	(2)	3.67	(7)	0.721	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Detroit	3.33	(11)	2	(1)	0.718	(5)	4	2	4	2	0
LA Angels	5.57	(5)	4.43	(9)	0.604	(6)	4	3	5	2	1
Tampa Bay	3.5	(8)	3	(3)	0.57	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Kansas City	3.5	(8)	3	(3)	0.57	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Baltimore	4.14	(6)	4	(8)	0.516	(9)	4	3	3	4	-1
NY Yankees	3.86	(7)	5.71	(12)	0.328	(10)	2	5	3	4	1
Toronto	3.5	(8)	5.33	(11)	0.316	(11)	2	4	1	5	-1
Texas	3	(12)	4.67	(10)	0.308	(12)	2	4	0	6	-2
Minnesota	3	(12)	6.57	(14)	0.192	(13)	1	6	3	4	2
Seattle	2.33	(14)	6.67	(15)	0.128	(14)	1	5	1	5	0
Chicago Sox	1.71	(15)	6.14	(13)	0.088	(15)	1	6	1	6	0

Magic numbers, 9/15/2015

Saturday's results:

Boston 5, NY Yankees 1
Toronto 4, Baltimore 3
Tampa 7, Minnesota 0
Oakland 1, Texas 0
Kansas City 1, Detroit 0

If Boston wins 5 of their remaining 12 games (5-7, .417, 96 wins):

Tampa Bay must go 15-0 to tie
NY Yankees cannot tie
Baltimore cannot tie

Detroit must go 11-3 to tie
Oakland must go 9-5 to tie

AL East:

Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 6 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay
Any combination of Boston wins and NY Yankees losses totaling 2 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of NY Yankees
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 2 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore

Best record in the AL:

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 9 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 11 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

Magic numbers, 9/14/2013

Friday's games:

Boston 8, NY Yankees 4
Tampa 3, Minnesota 0
Baltimore 5, Cleveland 3
Detroit 6, Kansas City 3
Oakland 9, Texas 8

If Boston wins 5 of their remaining 13 games (5-8, .385, 95 wins):

Tampa Bay must go 15-1 to tie
NY Yankees cannot tie
Baltimore cannot tie

Detroit must go 10-5 to tie
Oakland must go 9-6 to tie

AL East: Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 7 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay¹
Any combination of Boston wins and NY Yankees losses totaling 4 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of NY Yankees¹
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 4 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 11 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 12 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland



¹ - If Boston were to finish in a tie with either NY or Tampa in which the winner took the East and the loser was one of the Wild Card teams, the Red Sox would win the East by virtue of winning the season series between the teams.

Magic numbers, 9/13/2013

Thursday's games:

Tampa 4, Boston 3
NY Yankees 6, Baltimore 5
Oakland 8, Minnesota 3
Detroit was idle

If Boston wins 5 of their remaining 14 games (5-9, .357, 94 wins):

Tampa Bay must go 15-2 to tie
NY Yankees must go 15-0 to tie
Baltimore cannot tie

Detroit must go 10-6 to tie
Oakland must go 9-7 to tie

AL East: Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 8 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay¹
Any combination of Boston wins and NY Yankees losses totaling 6 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of NY Yankees¹
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 5 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 12 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 13 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland



¹ - If Boston were to finish in a tie with either NY or Tampa in which the winner took the East and the loser was one of the Wild Card teams, the Red Sox would win the East by virtue of winning the season series between the teams.

Magic Numbers, 9/12/2013

Wednesday's results:

Boston 7, Tampa 3
NY Yankees 5, Baltimore 4
Oakland 18, Minnesota 3
Detroit 1, Chicago WS 0

AL East:

Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 8 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay
Any combination of Boston wins and NY Yankees losses totaling 6 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of NY Yankees
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 6 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore

Best record in the AL

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 12 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 13 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

If Boston wins 6 of their remaining 15 games (6-9, .400, 95 wins):

Tampa Bay must go 17-1 to tie
NY Yankees cannot tie
Baltimore cannot tie

Detroit must go 11-5 to tie
Oakland must go 11-6 to tie

If Boston wins 7 of their remaining 15 games (7-8, .467, 96 wins):

Tampa Bay must go 18-0 to tie
NY Yankees cannot tie
Baltimore cannot tie

Detroit must go 12-4 to tie
Oakland must go 12-5 to tie

 Thoughts:

Another thriller for the Sox as Mike Carp hits a pinch Grand Slam in the 10th for the win.  And the third game of the series (head-to-head against Jets-Patriots in the Boston TV market tonight) is the game in this series where the pitching matchup (Peavy vs. Hellickson) most clearly favors the Red Sox.  (Which, baseball being what it is, probably means it's the game in the series that they lose.)

Baseball is a game without a clock, which always makes implausible comebacks possible.  A game isn't over until the 27th out, and a division race isn't over until it's clinched.  That said, while the other non-Toronto teams in their division haven't been eliminated yet, it's hard to imagine the Red Sox not winning the East.  Their worst 15 game stretch this year came in early May as they went 5-10.  If they were to go 5-10 again in their remaining 15, they would finish at 94 wins, requiring Tampa to go 16-2 to tie them.  If the unthinkable were to happen and they finished up 0-15, Tampa would still have to play .611 ball, 11-7, to tie them.  (And if they were to finish in a tie where one team won the East and the other won a Wild Card, the Red Sox would win the East by virtue of winning the season series between the two teams.)

Finishing with the best record in the league, and the home field advantage that goes with it, is less certain, but they're 4 and 4 1/2 up on Oakland and Detroit respectively, and have to be considered the favorites.

Boston could clinch the AL East as early as Sunday afternoon, by winning out for the rest of the week and getting some help from Minnesota and Toronto.  More likely is that they clinch some time late next week or next weekend, at home against Baltimore or Toronto.  They certainly don't want to head out on the road not having clinched, because they'd love to do it at home, and not having done it by then means that they haven't had a very good week.

Magic number, 9/11/2013

Tuesday's results:

Boston 2, Tampa 0
NY Yankees 7, Baltimore 5
Detroit 9, Chicago WS 1
Minnesota 4, Oakland 3

If Boston wins 7 of their remaining 16 games (7-9, .438, 95 wins):

Tampa Bay must go 17-2 to tie
Baltimore must go 18-0 to tie
NY Yankees cannot tie
 
Detroit must go 12-5 to tie
Oakland must go 12-6 to tie

AL East:

 Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totaling 10 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totaling 8 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore
Any combination of Boston wins and NY Yankees losses totaling 7 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of NY Yankees

Boston has already won the season series with both NY and Tampa.  In the event of a tie where the loser would be one of the Wild Card teams, the Red Sox would win the division anyway.

Best record in the AL

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totaling 13 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totaling 14 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

 Thoughts:

Tuesday night's win was huge for Boston.

• Buchholz was outstanding for five innings in his first start in over three months.
• They beat David Price.  (They also made him throw 127 pitches, which may be a positive externality for the Twins when they face the Rays on Sunday.)
• The won the game that looked, going in, like the best pitching matchup in the series for Tampa.  (Tonight's Cobb vs. Dempster matchup also favors Tampa, but good as Cobb has been, he isn't Price, not yet anyway.  And the Red Sox had no idea what they'd get from Buchholz, and knew going in that the bullpen would be in early.)
• They went in to the series with a 7 1/2 game lead - last night's win ensures that they'll leave Tampa with at least 6 1/2 games of that lead still in place.  The Rays, to have a realistic chance of winning the division, needed to sweep Boston.  The Red Sox have already done everything in this series, and everything on this road trip, that they needed to do, regardless of what happens the next two nights.

Magic numbers, 9/10/2013

Results from Monday night:

Baltimore 4, NY Yankees 2
White Sox 5, Tigers 1

Boston, Tampa, Oakland¹ did not play

If Boston wins 7 of their remaining 17 games (7-10, .412, 94 wins):

Tampa Bay must go 16-4 to tie
Baltimore must go 17-2 to tie
NY Yankees must go 18-0 to tie

Detroit must go 12-6 to tie
Oakland must go 11-8 to tie

Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totalling 12 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay
Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totalling 10 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore
Any combination of Boston wins and NY Yankees losses totalling 8 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of NY Yankees

Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totalling 14 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit
Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totalling 16 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland






¹ - The Tigers lead the Indians by 4 1/2 in the Central. The A's lead the Rangers by two in the AL West. It is only the division leader that's relevant on any given day.

Monday pythagorean - 9/9/2013

There are times when a 5-2 week, good though it is in the abstract, isn't quite good enough. This was not one of those times. The Red Sox 5-2, combined with Tampa's continued struggles, increased the lead in the division to 7 1/2 with just three weeks remaining.

• The race is not over yet. It is not over yet. It is not over until someone clinches. But for Boston to miss the play-offs at this point, it would take the kind of meltdown that we haven't seen from the Sox since ... well, since last year. And the year before.



• The best record in Major League baseball this morning, the most wins, best winning percentage, and the best run differential, all belong to your Boston Red Sox. Just as we all predicted before the season started. Ok, maybe not...



• In games played after August 31 the last two years, the Red Sox are 14-42 (7-20 in 2011, 7-22 in 2012). Thus far, they're 6-1 in 2013. For them to end up with just 7 September wins for the 3rd straight year, it will take a meltdown that would make September 2011 look like a success.



• That doesn't mean that they're not capable of it, of course, but saying that I think it unlikely is an understatement.



• We've known for a while, but Saturday's Red Sox win made it official - Toronto will not win the AL East this year.



• When the week began, the Tigers had a fairly substantial lead in run differential in Major League baseball. The week ends with Boston leading, 162-161, largely on the strength of Wednesday's 20-4 drubbing, a 16-run win that, because it was against Detroit, produced a 32-run swing in the two teams' relative run differentials.



• Tuesday's game was that rarity - an expected pitcher's duel that lived up to its billing. Scherzer was excellent, and Lester was better. Two 2-out base hits (Iglesias in the 2nd for the Tigers, Middlebrooks in the 5th for the Red Sox) accounted for all of the scoring.



• On Friday morning, the Red Sox were 3-1 in their first four games of the week. Of the three wins, the one that was the least interesting, the least inspirational, the least impressive of the three was the 20-4 win in which they tied the club record for home runs in a game. If you knew beforehand that one of the games would be that one, you wouldn't predict that there were two better. But it was sandwiched between the Lester-Scherzer duel and the scintillating double-comeback game in the Bronx. And then, on Friday night, Boston came back from an 8-3 deficit to win again. By the time the week ended, the 20-4, 8 HR from 7 different players blow-out of the Tigers was completely overshadowed by what had preceded and followed it.



• The Yankees are obviously celebrating the spectacular career of Mariano Rivera, and one of the special things they're doing is recreations of some of his memorable moments. I wasn't there, but rumor has it that the public address announcement accompanying Rivera's entry into Thursday's game went something like this: "Ladies and gentlemen, in tonight's re-enactment of the 9th inning of game four of the 2004 ALCS, the part of Dave Roberts will be played by Quintin Berry. Mike Napoli will be playing Kevin Millar, Stephen Drew will be playing the Bill Mueller part, and Mr. Rivera is appearing as himself..."



• And the Red Sox are back at .600. Again. They were 3-2 in their first five games, and they've been 3-2 for the season. Consistently very good, from start to (almost) finish.



• From Buster Olney came this tidbit:

  Thursday was Mariano Rivera's first blown save against the Red Sox since August of 2011 and his first against Boston at home since September of 2010. But in his career he's had more blown saves against the Red Sox than any other team, with 15 in total. The Orioles are second, as he's blown nine against them.

  15 blown saves against Boston, vs. 58 saves. That means that, as of Friday, Mariano Rivera had successfully converted fewer than 80% of his save opportunites against the Red Sox. And then he blew another one on Sunday, bringing that up to 58 saves in 74 attempts, which is about 78%. How many of you thought that Rivera's save percentage against the Red Sox was higher - much higher - than that?



• For the week, the Red Sox had 10 players hit 18 HR over the course of seven games.



• Injuries giveth, and injuries taketh away. With Clay Buchholz scheduled to start in Tampa tomorrow night, Jacoby Ellsbury is on the sidelines with a fractured navicular bone in the foot. If that sounds familiar, it's because that's the injury that cost Dustin Pedroia the last half of his 2010 season. Reports are the Ellsbury's fracture is not as serious as Pedroia's, does not require surgery, and may not even cost him the rest of the regular season. It would be a detriment to their chances of post-season success to be playing without Ellsbury, but of course, baseball being what it is, anything could still happen...



• On August 17, Lyle Overbay doubled against Koji Uehara in the 9th inning of a game in the Bronx. Since then, Uehara's pitched a perfect game, retiring the next 27 batters he's faced, 12 by strikeout.



• Magic Numbers
  If Boston wins 8 of their remaining 17 games (8-9, .471, 95 wins):
  

  Tampa Bay must go 17-3 to tie
  Baltimore must go 19-1 to tie
  NY Yankees must go 19-0 to tie

  
  For the AL East:
  

  Any combination of Boston wins and Tampa Bay losses totalling 12 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Tampa Bay

  Any combination of Boston wins and Baltimore losses totalling 10 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Baltimore

  Any combination of Boston wins and NY Yankees losses totalling 9 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of NY Yankees

  For the best record in the AL:
  

  Any combination of Boston wins and Oakland losses totalling 16 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Oakland

  Any combination of Boston wins and Detroit losses totalling 15 ensures that Boston finishes ahead of Detroit

  I'll be updating these daily until they're no longer relevant - Magic Numbers



• Red Sox Player of the Week - Obviously, when you average 8 1/2 runs per game, when you score 54 runs in a four-game stretch, there are going to be some gaudy numbers. Like Daniel Nava's (.333/.500/.619/1.119, 6.57 runs created, 11.73 RC/25 outs). And Will Middlebrooks' (.464/.500/.929/1.429, 10.26 runs created, 16.03 RC/25 outs). But the gaudiest were the ones that Mike Napoli (.476/.577/1.143/1.720, 10.68 runs created, 24.26 RC/25 outs) put up.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Even if the rest of the starters had been excellent (they weren't), the first start from Jon Lester was probably enough, as he outpitched 19-1 (now 19-2) Max Scherzer on Tuesday in a game that felt like a playoff game, both before and during. He was very good again on Sunday, albeit without sufficient run and bullpen support to gather another Win.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/9/2013

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	5.09	(2)	3.97	(3)	0.612	(1)	88	55	82	61	-6
Boston	5.22	(1)	4.1	(6)	0.608	(2)	88	57	87	58	-1
Oakland	4.5	(6)	3.88	(2)	0.568	(3)	81	62	83	60	2
Texas	4.51	(4)	3.97	(4)	0.558	(4)	79	63	81	61	2
Baltimore	4.7	(3)	4.38	(10)	0.532	(5)	76	66	76	66	0
Tampa Bay	4.31	(9)	4.04	(5)	0.529	(6)	75	67	78	64	3
Cleveland	4.5	(7)	4.23	(8)	0.529	(7)	75	67	76	66	1
Kansas City	4.05	(11)	3.82	(1)	0.527	(8)	75	68	75	68	0
NY Yankees	4.14	(10)	4.15	(7)	0.498	(9)	71	72	76	67	5
LA Angels	4.51	(4)	4.61	(12)	0.49	(10)	70	72	67	75	-3
Toronto	4.48	(8)	4.73	(14)	0.475	(11)	68	75	67	76	-1
Chicago Sox	3.74	(15)	4.35	(9)	0.431	(12)	61	81	57	85	-4
Minnesota	3.91	(13)	4.6	(11)	0.427	(13)	60	81	61	80	1
Seattle	3.92	(12)	4.62	(13)	0.425	(14)	61	82	65	78	4
Houston	3.87	(14)	5.28	(15)	0.361	(15)	52	91	47	96	-5

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	97	65
Oakland	94	68
Detroit	93	69
Texas	92	70
Tampa Bay	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	97	65
Detroit	94	68
Oakland	94	68
Texas	92	70
Tampa Bay	89	73

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	6	(3)	2.67	(1)	0.815	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Boston	8.43	(1)	5.29	(9)	0.701	(2)	5	2	5	2	0
Oakland	4.86	(7)	3.14	(3)	0.689	(3)	5	2	5	2	0
Cleveland	5	(6)	3.5	(4)	0.658	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
LA Angels	5.14	(5)	3.71	(5)	0.645	(5)	5	2	4	3	-1
Baltimore	3.86	(12)	2.86	(2)	0.634	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
NY Yankees	7.14	(2)	6.71	(15)	0.528	(7)	4	3	4	3	0
Seattle	4.14	(9)	4	(6)	0.516	(8)	4	3	3	4	-1
Detroit	4.83	(8)	5.5	(11)	0.441	(9)	3	3	2	4	-1
Minnesota	5.17	(4)	6.17	(14)	0.42	(10)	3	3	2	4	-1
Kansas City	4.14	(9)	5.29	(9)	0.39	(11)	3	4	5	2	2
Tampa Bay	3.43	(14)	4.57	(7)	0.371	(12)	3	4	3	4	0
Texas	3.83	(13)	5.5	(11)	0.341	(13)	2	4	2	4	0
Houston	4.14	(9)	6	(13)	0.337	(14)	2	5	2	5	0
Chicago Sox	2.57	(15)	4.86	(8)	0.238	(15)	2	5	1	6	-1