Chapter 21 - In which the 2011 Red Sox play the role of the 2010 Red Sox and consistently run out a lineup with many of their best players missing...
- The week started with David Ortiz missing from the lineup with bursitis in his heel. The good news continued when Kevin Youkilis joined him on the sidelines with a sore back. And then they spent the weekend sans Ellsbury after getting plunked and bruising his back.
- Then toss in the remain superstars - Dustin Pedroia (.240/.321/.280/.601) and Adrian Gonzalez (.160/.241/.240/.481) - slumping through the week and you end up with the dominant offense in baseball scoring 3.7 runs per game, and being held to three hits in three consecutive games at Fenway.
- It hasn't been just the offense, of course. When the Royals scored first on Friday night, that marked the tenth consecutive game in which the opposition put the first run on the board, dating back to the previous Monday in Minnesota. They finally broke that stretch on Saturday, and then the pitching melted down in one 8-run inning for the Royals that cost the Sox a chance at the sweep.
- The single biggest reason that I'm rooting for Tim Wakefield to collect his 200th career win is so that I can stop hearing about how Tim Wakefield is going for his 200th career win.
- I believed that Boston was a better team than New York. They have not been. The Yankees have had a better run differential most of the way, because they've allowed many fewer runs (I will confess to being shocked by how good their pitching has been), but as of today, they've outscored the Red Sox, too. Against the rest of baseball, New York is 8 1/2 games ahead of the Red Sox. If the Red Sox hadn't taken 10-of-12 (so far), the division race would be basically over. (Most of New York's advantage comes against two teams - they're 13-4 against Texas and Chicago, while the Red Sox are 2-7).
- The schedule for the upcoming week is not favorable, either. Each team has three home games against the A's. Aside from that, Boston has four in Texas, while New York has three in Baltimore and an off-day. If the Sox are only one back next Monday morning, they'll have had a good week, at least relatively.
- Red Sox Player of the Week - There wasn't one. Jacoby Ellsbury (.294/.381/.765/1.146) was pretty good in five games before leaving with an injury and not finishing the week, and Ryan Lavarnway (.333/.412/.400/.812 in his first Major league action) and Darnell McDonald (.294/.316/.588/.904, which isn't great but vastly exceeds what he'd done so far this year) warrant mention, but it's my award, and I don't have to give it if I think no one deserves it. And that's what I think.
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - In two starts, both of which the Red Sox won, Jon Lester gave up two runs in 13 innings of work.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/18/2011
| | | | | | | | Projected | Actual | |
|
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck |
|
|---|
| New York | 5.4 | (1) | 3.9 | (3) | 0.645 | (1) | 81 | 44 | 77 | 48 | -4 |
|
| Boston | 5.32 | (2) | 4.17 | (7) | 0.609 | (2) | 77 | 49 | 77 | 49 | 0 |
|
| Texas | 5.09 | (3) | 4.2 | (8) | 0.587 | (3) | 75 | 53 | 73 | 55 | -2 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 4.3 | (7) | 3.87 | (2) | 0.548 | (4) | 69 | 56 | 69 | 56 | 0 |
|
| Toronto | 4.69 | (4) | 4.5 | (10) | 0.518 | (5) | 66 | 61 | 65 | 62 | -1 |
|
| Los Angeles | 3.92 | (11) | 3.8 | (1) | 0.514 | (6) | 66 | 62 | 69 | 59 | 3 |
|
| Detroit | 4.55 | (5) | 4.54 | (11) | 0.501 | (7) | 63 | 63 | 68 | 58 | 5 |
|
| Cleveland | 4.26 | (8) | 4.32 | (9) | 0.494 | (8) | 61 | 62 | 62 | 61 | 1 |
|
| Chicago | 4.02 | (10) | 4.09 | (6) | 0.493 | (9) | 62 | 64 | 63 | 63 | 1 |
|
| Oakland | 3.87 | (13) | 4.06 | (5) | 0.478 | (10) | 61 | 66 | 57 | 70 | -4 |
|
| Kansas City | 4.33 | (6) | 4.84 | (12) | 0.449 | (11) | 57 | 71 | 52 | 76 | -5 |
|
| Seattle | 3.38 | (14) | 4.03 | (4) | 0.421 | (12) | 53 | 72 | 53 | 72 | 0 |
|
| Minnesota | 3.89 | (12) | 4.86 | (13) | 0.4 | (13) | 50 | 76 | 55 | 71 | 5 |
|
| Baltimore | 4.18 | (9) | 5.39 | (14) | 0.386 | (14) | 48 | 76 | 47 | 77 | -1 |
|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| New York | 100 | 62 |
|
| Boston | 99 | 63 |
|
| Texas | 92 | 70 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 89 | 73 |
|
| Los Angeles | 87 | 75 |
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| New York | 101 | 61 |
|
| Boston | 99 | 63 |
|
| Texas | 93 | 69 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 89 | 73 |
|
| Los Angeles | 86 | 76 |
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | | Projected | Actual | |
|
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck |
|
|---|
| Tampa Bay | 5 | (4) | 2.33 | (1) | 0.801 | (1) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
|
| Detroit | 6.67 | (1) | 4.17 | (7) | 0.703 | (2) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
|
| Toronto | 4.57 | (6) | 3 | (2) | 0.684 | (3) | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
|
| New York | 6.14 | (2) | 4.29 | (8) | 0.659 | (4) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
|
| Chicago | 4.67 | (5) | 4 | (5) | 0.57 | (5) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Los Angeles | 5.14 | (3) | 4.57 | (9) | 0.554 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Boston | 3.71 | (13) | 3.57 | (4) | 0.518 | (7) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Texas | 4.14 | (10) | 4.14 | (6) | 0.5 | (8) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Oakland | 3.29 | (14) | 3.43 | (3) | 0.481 | (9) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
|
| Kansas City | 4.29 | (8) | 5.86 | (11) | 0.361 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 |
|
| Minnesota | 4.29 | (8) | 5.86 | (11) | 0.361 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
|
| Cleveland | 4 | (11) | 5.5 | (10) | 0.358 | (12) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
|
| Baltimore | 4.5 | (7) | 6.67 | (13) | 0.328 | (13) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 |
|
| Seattle | 3.83 | (12) | 7 | (14) | 0.249 | (14) | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
|
Labels: MLB, pythagorean, Red Sox
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