Jacoby Ellsbury to the Yankees

So, Ellsbury is going to the Yankees.

And I'm more-or-less indifferent.

I never had any expectation that he'd be back, and the Yankees were always the most likely candidates to overpay him. It makes the Yankees better and the Red Sox worse, at least for the next couple of years, but that's life.

There are a couple of things that I'm not interested in seeing, both of which are visible in headlines at the Globe's site this morning.

"Deal proves Ellsbury a mercenary" - The number of people in this world who would be doing their jobs without financial compensation is not big. At some level, we're all "mercenaries." And it's not like he opted out of a deal for this - he played out his contract, the Red Sox got everything from him they had any right to expect, and now he's got the right to choose the best contract and the best situation for himself. I don't resent him making that choice. The Yankees probably guaranteed him something on the order of 30% more than anyone else would have. There's no way that the Red Sox were going to give him seven years, or that kind of annual value on any contract over three years, so it's a very rational decision for him to make, and it's silly to resent it, and offensive to portray it as some kind of character flaw.

"Ellsbury's departure good news for Sox fans" - That, of course, is obviously hogwash. Ellsbury has been, when healthy, a good-to-great player for the Red Sox, and this transaction makes the Red Sox weaker and the Yankees stronger. That's not even debatable. There's just no level on which this qualifies as "good news" and it's preposterous to suggest it. Now, does that mean that the 2014 Yankees will be better than the 2014 Red Sox? No, though that wouldn't be shocking. There's a lot to be done, still, and we don't know what Jackie Bradley's going to be, or where Carlos Beltran ends up (almost certainly not New York, now) or whether Jacoby is going to collide with Soriano in game 1 and miss half of the year. And, of course, the contract, even if he gets hurt in spring training and never plays a single game for the Yankees, doesn't hamstring the Yankees the way that it would hamstring anyone else - they have no practical limit to their ability to overpay players, so even if he isn't worth what he's getting paid in the last three of years of the deal, as is likely, it doesn't really matter to the Yankees, so that's not really good for Boston, either. No, there just isn't any "good news" here. That's life. C'est la vie...

In any event, the major source of my equanimity, I'm quite certain, is this - the Boston Red Sox have won three of the last ten World Series Championships, including the last one. That was true yesterday, when Jacoby Ellsbury was a free agent, and it's true today, now that he's a Yankee. I can live with that...

Let me just say this about that

The end was ... appropriate. Proportional to what led up to it.



This is what makes sports compelling. Storylines that would get thrown out of Hollywood script pitches as being too unlikely, too unrealistic...

Stat of the day

Josh Beckett has made five starts against the New York Yankees, pitching a total of 34 innings. He's 4-0, while the team has won all five of the starts.

He gave up four runs in the first 32 innings he pitched against the Yankees in 2011. He gave up four runs in the 33rd.

Remaining schedule analysis - Boston vs. New York - 8/26

It's a strange and different schedule that Major League Baseball has put together this year, a season that started on a Friday and finishes on a Wednesday. There are just under five weeks left, and the AL East is "too close to call." (Not that it seems to matter much, as, again, the Red Sox and Yankees are both going to the playoffs [barring some miraculous intervention].) So, as we head down the home stretch, it's time to start looking at the remaining schedules.

First, a look at the overall home/away schedules.

Red Sox/Yankees Schedule Comparison - 8/26/2011

	Boston	New York
total remaining	32	33
home	19	13
away	13	20

The Red Sox have a clear advantage here. They've got one more off-day than the Yankees do in the last month, and they've got many more home games, and many fewer away games, than the Yankees. [Note: The Yankees also have one more home game against the Tampa Bay Rays that was post-poned and has not been re-scheduled. It will likely not be played until and unless it becomes necessary for resolving the standings.]

Head-to-head:

3 in Boston, 3 in New York

Common games:

	3 in Baltimore, 3 in Toronto, 3 in Tampa
	3 hosting Baltimore, 2 hosting Toronto, 3 hosting Tampa

As division rivals, a lot of the schedule actually looks pretty similar. They've got six left head-to-head, three in each stadium, so there's no advantage there. And they've each got home and away series remaining with each of the other teams in the AL East, so that part all looks the same.

Differences:

		Boston	New York
		Away
		Toronto (1)	LAAngels (3)
			Seattle (3)
			Baltimore (2)
		Home
		Oakland (3)	Minnesota (1)
		Texas (3)	Toronto (1)
		Baltimore (1)
		Tampa (1)

And there we see the real differences. Take away the head-to-head and common games, and the Yankees have eight on the road, six on the West Coast, where Boston only has one in Toronto. (Note - most of the 1-game series listed in this section aren't actually 1-game series - they're just differences between the length of series that the two teams are playing at the various sites. Boston isn't going to Toronto for one game - they're going for four, but New York's only going for three.) Boston has eight home games, New York has only two.

Advantage - BIG advantage - Boston.

In the last five weeks, New York's got to travel ~8500 miles on seven flights, Boston's got to travel ~3500 on five. Boston has two extended homestands (nine and 10 games, respectively) where they don't have any travel at all. New York's two home stands are (obviously) shorter (six and seven). Unless you believe that six at home vs. Texas and Oakland is worse than six on the road against LAA and Seattle, there's no aspect of the schedule that doesn't favor the Red Sox right now.

Not that this means that the Red Sox are going to win the East. Given the remaining schedules, and the fact that they've already got a lead, the Red Sox have got to be favored, but it's not a foregone conclusion. It would make for a very interesting September, I suspect, if it mattered. Were it not for the Wild Card, we might be looking at a re-play of 1978, the two best teams in the league battling down the stretch for the division. As it is, the battle's not particularly interesting, because the real question is whether or not they're both going to win in the first round and play in the ALCS...

It's almost that time of year...

Magic. Numbers. Are coming...

Actually, they're already here. But the relevant ones are still a couple of weeks away from being interesting. What's going to happen in the next week or so is that teams are going to start getting eliminated. The Baltimore Orioles are likely to be the first. Any combination of Baltimore losses and Boston wins equal to seven (or Baltimore losses and New York wins equal to nine [or, since the Red Sox and Yankees have to share six more losses, just five Baltimore losses]) mathematically eliminates the Orioles from contention in the AL East. (They were realistically eliminated long ago.)

Boston's magic number to win the East vs. the Yankees - 34. (Actually, 33, because in the case of a tie, the Red Sox win the division on the strength of winning the season series [and assuming, as I do, that the second place team will win the Wild Card])

New York's magic number to win the East vs. the Red Sox - 36.


How likely is it that either New York or Boston fails to make the playoffs? Well, let's look at the Red Sox for a minute. They've got 33 games remaining. Their worst 33-game stretch of the season consisted of their first 33, when they lost six straight and 10-of-12. If they repeat that to close the season, which is unlikely (they haven't had a 33-game stretch worse than 19-14 that didn't include those first six losses) but possible, they'll finish at 94-68. If they do that, the Yankees will almost certainly win the East, by going 18-17 or better in their last 35. The Red Sox would then need to finish ahead of the third place team in the East and the second place teams in the other divisions to make the playoffs.

To get to 94-68, the second place team in the Central, Cleveland, would have to go 31-4 (.885). Forget the Central.

To get to 94-68, the second place team in the West, the LAA Angels, would have to go 23-9 (.719). The third place team in the East, the Tampa Bay Rays, would have to go 24-10 (.706). Either of those results is possible; neither of those results is likely.

Nor, frankly, is the Red Sox going 15-18.

If there's going to be any drama in the AL results this year (unless you think there's great drama in which of the Red Sox or Yankees is the division winner and which is the Wild Card), it's going to come in the West or the Central. Or as a result of a complete melt-down by Boston or New York. Or a mini-meltdown accompanied by a historic stretch from the Angels or Rays. Not impossible. But not at all likely...

Because if someone reports it, it has to be true...

Brian Cashman: New York Yankees acquiring pitcher now unlikely
For some definitions of "unlikely"...

Having finished second, or maybe third, in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, the Yankees are prepared to go into the 2011 season with a pitching rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes , with the remaining spots filled out by youngsters, many of whom have never pitched above the Triple-A level.

Right. They're "prepared" to go into the season with 2/5 (if that) of a Major League rotation, running the realistic risk of being 10 games out on Memorial day, despite having the largest payroll in the game. Totally believable. Who could think otherwise?

So for now, the Yankees are standing pat.

Key phrase: "for now." Pardon me for thinking that the rotation might look a little bit different when the season starts than this article projects...

One more Cliff Lee thought...

There's one more thing about Lee signing that makes it even better from a Red Sox fan point-of-view. Better than it would have been if he'd signed with the Rangers.

1. Mets fans, like most everyone else, hate the Yankees.
2. Mets fans love to see the Yankees lose, at games and free agent pursuits.
3. The Mets are in a division with, and a rivalry with, the Phillies.
4. Mets fans hate the Phillies, too.
5. Therefore, the signing of Lee with the Phillies makes both Yankee and Mets fans miserable!

Ah... It just doesn't get any better than this!

;-)

Lee to Yankees: "Thanks, but no thanks..."

Cliff Lee to rejoin Philadelphia Phillies

The most intriguing negotiation of the hot stove season came to a stunning conclusion late Monday when Lee, 32, spurned bigger offers from the Yankees and Rangers and agreed to a five-year, guaranteed $120 million contract with the Phillies, sources said. The deal includes an "easily reachable" vesting option for a sixth year, a source said, and most likely will ensure that Lee finishes his career in a Philadelphia uniform.

Odds and ends...

• As of December 14, the Boston Red Sox are the favorites to win the AL East.
• As of December 14, the Philadelphia Phillies are the favorites to win the NL East.
• The Yankees' plan was to go into the season with Sabathia and Lee at the top of their rotation. They knew - they didn't think, they knew - that they'd sign Lee. Now it's on to plan B. (Actually, plan B was apparently Crawford, so I guess they're on to plan C, now.)
• This is, obviously, great news for Yankee haters all right-thinking people, at least in the short term.
• The people at the players union can't be thrilled about this, as Lee reportedly left a lot of money on the table. It makes it harder for some other pitcher to get more than five years and $100 million.
• The next question is, who do the Yankees go get, and what does he cost? As mediocre (or worse) as Javier Vazquez was, he gave them 26 starts and 157 innings that need to be replaced. There's, at this time, no guarantee that Pettitte will be back. Sabathia, Burnett and Hughes is not enough of a rotation to strike fear into the hearts of anyone. So where do they go? Greinke's apparently available but no one thinks he can pitch in New York. It's hard to believe that Felix Hernandez would be available, no matter what they offered. Cris Carpenter's headed into free agency, but why would St. Louis part with him now? Where's the good starter on a bad team that they might be able to pry away who could make the difference? I don't know, off the top of my head, but I'd bet that they'll do something major (not just re-signing Pettitte) between now and the beginning of April. They'll at least try to do something major, because they don't have the starting pitching to win the East, and they know it.

Thank you, Cliff. You've given millions of people a wonderful Christmas present...

Cliff Lee can greatly increase the net sum of human happiness.

How often does one many get to make millions of people happy by signing a contract for millions of dollars? And during the holiday season? You can do it, Cliff Lee. Spurn the Yankees filthy lucre, sign with the Rangers, and give the vast majority of baseball fans¹ a wonderful present...


¹ - Yeah, the Yankee fans won't be happy, but that just adds to the pleasure for everyone else...

The Bush Presidency - stunning success?

Here's one major reason why even progressives should be able to agree that the administration of George W. Bush represented a golden moment in American history:

• In 2000, with Bill Clinton still holding the Presidency of the United States, the New York Yankees won the World Series.


• In 2009, with Barack Obama in office, the New York Yankees won the World Series.


• In the eight years in between, the Presidency of George W. Bush, the New York Yankees won zero (0) World Series.

Case closed.

I can't wait to hear Tim McClelland's excuse...

The horrific post-season continues for MLB's umpires. In the 5th inning of game 4 of the ALCS, Posada at 3rd, Cano at 2nd and 1 out, Nick Swisher bounces a ball back to Angels' pitcher Darren Oliver. Oliver throws home, and Mike Napoli runs Posada back to 3rd. Cano, watching the play, stops short of 3rd base. Posada gets back to 3rd and overruns it into foul territory. Napoli tags Cano, not standing on a base, and then tags Posada, not standing on a base. Double-play, inning over.

Except that it isn't. Somehow, Robinson Cano, who never actually reached 3rd base, and was standing in the baseline with the ball in play, is tagged out, but not put out, and he's awarded 3rd base. I cannot wait to hear 3rd base umpire Tim McClelland's reason for allowing a runner who was tagged out in the baseline to be awarded the base.

It is long past time for MLB to put an umpire in a room with all of the video feeds and let him correct the obvious mistakes made on the field. LONG past time...

League Championship Series Predictions

Looking back, looking forward...

Division Series Results

The Bill James Playoff Predictor was 4-for-4 in the division series round. The "Secret Sauce" hit two and missed two.

2009 Division Series - Objective Models

BJPP	Secret Sauce	Result
BOS - 60, LAA - 71	Boston (34) over LAA (48)	Lanaheim over Boston 3-0
NYY - 100, MIN - 42	New York (14) over Minnesota (42)	New York over Minnesota 3-0
STL - 64, LAD - 65	Los Angeles (16) over St. Louis (47)	Los Angeles over St. Louis 3-0
PHI - 88, COL - 59	Colorado (26) over Philadelphia (58)	Philadelphia over Colorado 3-1

There were some good and interesting individual games, but none of the series were particularly good or interesting, as they played only one over the minimum number of games. The first round could have taken 20 games, it took 13. No team won a game to stave off elimination.

Really, the most interesting aspect of the first round was the sheer magnitude of obviously bad calls made by the umpires. And baseball people continue to support the current system, a system in which n-6 (where n is the number of people in the world) people know that a runner being called out is safe or that a runner being called safe is out, and the 6 who don't know are allowed to determine the outcome anyway. Even more frustrating is the belief that some kind of replay usage would require long periods of time or limited manager challenges. Why on earth doesn't MLB just place another umpire somewhere where he can see all the replays, and let him correct the obviously wrong calls?

Anyway, that's a topic for another day.

So it's on to the League Championship Series.

ALCS - New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

By record, these were the two best teams in the American League. By run differential, they were first and third. Both have looked like World Series contenders for most of the season, and it is not surprising to see them meeting here.

First, lets' go to the objective models.

Bill James Playoff Predictor:
1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (NYY - 12)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (NYY - 3)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (LAA - 14)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (LAA - 12)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (NYY - 10)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (NYY - 8)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (LAA - 8)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (LAA - 7)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (NYY - 7)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (LAA - 19)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (NYY - 15)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or
    went further (LAA - 12)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (5-5 split)

NYY - 55, LAA - 72

Secret Sauce:

New York (14) over LAnaheim (48)

The objective predictors are split on this series. The BJPP thinks the Angels are a better bet - the secret sauce has the Yankees as a big favorite.

I'm of mixed feelings. I dislike the Angels, but hate the Yankees. (I don't have any affection at all for any of the four remaining teams, and only a couple of individual players.) I expect the Yankees to win, but I'm not sure how much of that is reasonable reaction to what the teams have done this year and how much is the reassertion of the old fatalist New England Calvinism¹.

In the end, I think the Yankees have better pitching and a better offense. Given that, there's not much reason, other than the sheer randomness of short series baseball, to be picking the Angels.

My Pick: Yankees in six

My Fervent Hope: To be wrong

NLCS - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Unlike the AL, where there are two new² entrants to the League Championship Series, this is a rematch. Last year, Philadelphia won the NLCS by beating the Dodgers in five games en route to winning the World Series.

Bill James Playoff Prediction System

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (LAD - 4)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (PHI - 3)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (LAD - 14)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (LAD - 12)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (PHI - 10)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (PHI - 8)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (PHI - 8)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (LAD - 7)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (LAD - 7)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (LAD - 0)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (LAD - 15)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or
    went further (PHI - 12)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (LAD - 12)

PHI - 41, LAD - 71


Secret Sauce:

Los Angeles (16) over Philadelphia (58)

Both of the objective systems like the Dodgers, by pretty hefty margins. At a cursory glance, it looks like offense vs. defense, but they play in fairly extreme parks, and I think that the Dodgers' pitching isn't as much better than the Phillies' as it looks, nor is the offense the Philadelphia advantage that appears on the surface. The Secret Sauce hates Philadelphia's closer (as, I'm sure, do all Phillies fans). It looks to me, on the whole, to be a pretty well-matched series. I don't have a strong feeling on this one, and there isn't a result (sweep one way, sweep the other, anything in between) that would really surprise me.

My Pick: Gun to my head, I go with the Dodgers in six, but without a single hint of passion.





¹ - Though I would deny, strenuously, that I'm actually a Calvinist.

² - Obviously, this only holds for some definitions of "new." The Yankees and Angels have had numerous playoff trips over the past decade, but neither of them made the LCS last season.

I like this..

My new all-time favorite Fox Sports graphic...



(That's the big one down in the bottom-middle, not the little one in the top-left...)

Lester OK, apparently

Last night's Red Sox-Yankee game was a disaster, but the biggest concern wasn't Lester getting lit up - that happens, even to the best. It was Lester getting knocked down.

Apparently, according to all reports, he's going to be OK.

Which is good news. Because without Lester, the Red Sox' chances of winning the World Series, or any post-season series, drops precipitously.

Monday Pythagorean, 7/13/2009

And into the All Star break we go, with a 5-2 week leading to a 3 game lead over the Yankees, and 6 1/2 over the Rays.

• So we hit the break with the Red Sox having both the best record and the best run differential in the AL. They're three up on the Yankees in the East and 5 1/2 up on Texas for the Wild Card. They're a long way from locking up a playoff spot, but for those of who thought they were the best team in the league before the season began, nothing that's happened so far has altered that.



• The Red Sox are currently 54-34, 20 games over .500. When you get to 20 games over .500, that means that .500 ball the rest of the way results in 91 wins. To win the AL East, I suspect that 30 games over .500, 96 wins, is necessary. The Red Sox are obviouly on pace, both by record and by run differential, to exceed that.



• Earlier in the year, I said that they needed Jed Lowrie back. I said that they had gotten more than they had any right to expect from Nick Green, and hoped that people would recognize that. I wanted him replaced before he turned back into a pumpkin. Well, Cinderella - your coach isn't waiting anymore. In his last 51 games, since May 4, he's hitting .240/.310/.370/.680. That happens to good hitters, of course (though not usually in stretches quite that long), but it also happens to bad hitters. That's a lot closer to realistic Nick Green expectations than what he did the first month.



• The Red Sox have more road games left than home games (36 vs. 38) while the Yankees have more home than road (39 vs. 35). But. The Red Sox played their last game west of the central time zone on May 17. The Yankees played their first game in the pacific time zone on July 10, and still have two more trips to the west coast. Advantage: Boston.



• The Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report has the Red Sox with a 52% chance of winning the East and 30% chance of winning the Wild Card, for an 82% chance of making the post-season. This is second in MLB only to the Dodgers, a good team playing in a lousy division.



• I commented on this yesterday, but I wanted to note it again - I love the decision to start Buchholz on Friday night. I think that it shows foresight and imagination, while using the organizational depth efficiently. For many teams, a move like this wouldn't make sense, but a) Buchholz has been dominant at AAA and certainly looks ready to throw an effective start and b) they've got roster moves that they have to make (Lowell, Lowrie) anyway. This means that all of the starters go into the All Star break knowing exactly when their next starts are, and when they need to throw to prep. There's no preparation uncertainty pending the appearance or non-appearance of Beckett and/or Wakefield on Tuesday night. It would be a stretch to call it brilliant, but it is unconventional, and I love the move, regardless of how it ends up working out.



• The big stories of the "first half":
  
  • The Big Man - Cries for his dismissal abounded as he began the year .185/.284/.287/.570 with 1 HR in his first 178 at-bats. Then Papi returned, as he's hit .278/.368/.617/.986 with 1 HR every 10.45 at-bats since June 1.
  
  
  • The Rivals - The Yankees had the first game won until Jason Bay took Mariano deep in the bottom of the ninth. They had the second one won when they took a 6-0 lead over Beckett with Burnett on the mound, until Burnett melted down. They had a couple more that they lost late. Why are the Red Sox three games up on the Yankees? Because they're eight games up on the Yankees head-to-head - against the rest of baseball, New York's five games ahead of Boston. If Boston were 6-2 against New York rather than 8-0, they'd be a game down instead of three games up.
  
  
  • The Adventures of Daisuke Matsuzaka in the Land of the Rising Sun - Matsuzaka, who finished 4th in the AL Cy Young balloting a year ago with 18 wins and a 159 ERA+, is 1-5 in 8 starts, with an ERA over 8. The team has been surprisingly (and refreshingly) forthright in blaming the World Baseball Classic, which prevented his having a normal spring training, and left him unprepared for the start of the regular season.
  
  
  • A Pair of Aces - The two Aces of the Sox staff started slowly, but since May 1, Beckett and Lester are a combined 16-5 with a 2.71 ERA in 26 starts, while striking out 177 in 176 1/3 innings.
  
  
  • There's a Hole in the World - Many teams have struggles with their fifth starters - the Sox have had problems with their third. From May 1 through July 6, more than two months, the pitchers in that slot (Masterson, Matsuzaka, Smoltz) went 1-8 with a 6.59 ERA.
  
  
  • The Best Bullpen in Baseball - The 'pen has been mostly outstanding. They've had a couple of significant meltdowns, losing a couple of games that should not have been lost, but they've won a bunch of games that shouldn't necessarily have been won, too. Justin Masterson is struggling, and they need to get that straightened out, but they've got a bunch of pitchers in the bullpen who can miss bats, and if they haven't been quite as dominant as advertised, that's more a result of the advertising than the performance.
  
  
  • The Crusty Vet - Though in my opinion undeserved, Wakefield makes his first All Star team at age 42. There's no question that he was very good early and has been pretty good again lately. The long bad-to-mediocre stretch somehow escaped people's attention.
  
  
  • Three Musketeers - Pedrioa, Youkilis and Bay were expected to be key offensive contributors, and all of them have been. Youkilis and Pedroia got the big money, and it obviously hasn't affected them (negatively) as it seems to affect some.
  
  
  • The Other Crusty Vets - Question marks, coming off of injury and just plain decrepitude, Lowell and Varitek have met or exceeded expectations.



• Red Sox Player of the Week: In basketball, they used to call Vinnie Johnson "the microwave," because he'd get so hot so quickly. I'm thinking that works for Dustin Pedroia just as well. When he's cold, he gets very cold. But when he's hot, he's scorching hot. The hot Pedroia is back, as he hit a ridiculous .462/.500/.885/1.385 with a home run and six (6!) doubles for the week, despite missing a game to be with his pregnant wife at the hospital.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: No-brainer. Jon Lester was spectacular in his one start with 8 innings of 4-hit shutout ball, and Daniel Bard struck out 8 in 4 1/3 innings while allowing 1 hit, no walks and no earned runs (because of an error and a bloop double, he ended up giving up 2 unearned runs). But Josh Beckett started two games and threw 15 2/3 innings while allowing only 9 hits and 2 runs to earn the honors for the week.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/13/2009

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.28	(4)	4.32	(2)	0.591	(1)	52	36	54	34	2
Tampa Bay	5.35	(3)	4.49	(4)	0.579	(2)	52	37	48	41	-4
New York	5.63	(1)	4.94	(11)	0.559	(3)	49	39	51	37	2
Texas	4.94	(6)	4.55	(7)	0.538	(4)	47	40	48	39	1
Detroit	4.8	(9)	4.44	(3)	0.536	(5)	47	40	48	39	1
Toronto	4.86	(7)	4.51	(5)	0.534	(6)	48	42	44	46	-4
Los Angeles	5.36	(2)	4.99	(12)	0.533	(7)	46	40	49	37	3
Minnesota	4.85	(8)	4.53	(6)	0.532	(8)	47	42	45	44	-2
Chicago	4.63	(11)	4.6	(8)	0.502	(9)	44	44	45	43	1
Seattle	3.95	(13)	4.16	(1)	0.477	(10)	42	46	46	42	4
Cleveland	5.07	(5)	5.6	(14)	0.455	(11)	40	49	35	54	-5
Oakland	4.2	(12)	4.66	(9)	0.452	(12)	39	47	37	49	-2
Baltimore	4.64	(10)	5.3	(13)	0.439	(13)	39	49	40	48	1
Kansas City	3.93	(14)	4.82	(10)	0.408	(14)	36	52	37	51	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	99	63
New York	94	68
Los Angeles	92	70
Texas	89	73
Detroit	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	98	64
New York	92	70
Tampa Bay	90	72
Los Angeles	89	73
Texas	88	74

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	5.5	(5)	2.83	(1)	0.771	(1)	5	1	4	2	-1
Baltimore	4.17	(10)	3.17	(2)	0.623	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	5.43	(6)	4.14	(5)	0.621	(3)	4	3	5	2	1
Oakland	4.33	(9)	3.5	(3)	0.596	(4)	4	2	3	3	-1
Los Angeles	7.33	(1)	6.33	(10)	0.567	(5)	3	3	4	2	1
Tampa Bay	4.5	(7)	4.33	(7)	0.517	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Seattle	4	(11)	4	(4)	0.5	(7)	4	3	4	3	0
Texas	4.43	(8)	4.43	(8)	0.5	(7)	4	3	3	4	-1
New York	6.29	(3)	6.43	(11)	0.49	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Chicago	7	(2)	7.17	(14)	0.489	(10)	3	3	3	3	0
Minnesota	5.83	(4)	6.5	(12)	0.451	(11)	3	3	2	4	-1
Toronto	3.71	(14)	4.29	(6)	0.435	(12)	3	4	2	5	-1
Kansas City	3.86	(13)	6	(9)	0.308	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Cleveland	4	(11)	7	(13)	0.264	(14)	2	4	2	4	0

Monday Pythagorean, 5/11/2009

Winning two out of three makes for a successful week and a successful season. 5-2 is even better.

• OK, I'll admit it - when Tampa scored in the first inning on Sunday night, I thought it was over. Hey, I thought the same thing Friday night when Shields took a 3-0 lead into the sixth. Tampa has seemed to have Boston's number this year, they've done nothing whatsoever against Garza, and had relatively limited success against Shields.



• It was a good thing that they were able to come back on Friday, because Saturday was a debacle of the highest order. Whether it was bad positioning, poor range, poor reactions or just plain bad luck, it seemed as if every ground ball that Lester through threw¹ managed to roll into the outfield. He's had a couple of performances in which he gave up a lot of runs without seeming to get pounded, but his numbers are not good.



• Neither are Beckett's. When you look at the fact that Becket, Lester and Matsuzaka are, right now, averaging 5.52 innings per start with a combined ERA of 6.83, it is miraculous that the Red Sox are over .500. They've gotten great work from Wakefield, good support from Masterson, excellent work out of the bullpen, and a strong offense. At some point, you'd like to think that Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka would pitch well, too, because some of the positives are bound to take hits.



• It's a good inning when the first five batters come to the plate and score, the last one homering. The Red Sox did that in the sixth inning on Friday night, but it wasn't even the best sixth inning of the week. On Thursday night, the first twelve (12) batters in the sixth inning scored, finishing on a Bay home run.



• A 5-2 week is even better when it includes a 4-1 record against two teams expected to compete for the division title, two teams widely considered to be among the best four or five teams in the game. Boston is now 5-0 against the Yankees, and, while going only 4-6 against Tampa in the early going, they've still managed to build up a 5 1/2 game cushion over the Rays.



• Anyone who thinks that the Rays are done, who thinks that their current record represents their real level, is wrong. They've played well enough to be a couple of games over .500 instead of a couple of games under. But they haven't gotten the breaks, they've run good pitching performances up against slightly better ones, or good offensive days against slightly better ones. Last year, I said all they way along that they were a little bit lucky, that they had a record better than their performance because they had a great record in one-run games. I also said that one-run games is predominantly determined by "luck." Well, with essentially the same team, they're 3-6 in their first 9 one-run games this year. But they'll be playing for a playoff spot in September.



• I remain a Blue Jay skeptic, but it's getting harder to do. They've now played well for a significant length of time. I just don't believe that they can continue to play this well for an entire season. And their schedule will get tougher than it's been so far.



• Red Sox Player of the Week: Jason Bay is the easy choice. Not only does he continue to rake, hitting .379/.438/.897/1.334 on the week with 4 HR, mostly at important times, but he didn't take a 50 game suspension, thus increasing his value to the team.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: In 4 1/3 innings of high-leverage relief work, Hidecki Okajima allowed only one baserunner (0 hits, 1 BB) while striking out five. Honorable mention to Jonathan Papelbon, who built himself a mess in the 9th inning of the series finale against Tampa, but proceeded to strike out Pena, Upton and Crawford in order to end it.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/11/2009

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	6	(1)	4.53	(4)	0.626	(1)	21	13	22	12	1
Kansas City	4.56	(11)	3.72	(1)	0.592	(2)	19	13	18	14	-1
Boston	5.78	(2)	5.09	(9)	0.558	(3)	18	14	20	12	2
Detroit	5	(8)	4.5	(2)	0.548	(4)	16	14	17	13	1
Tampa Bay	5.12	(5)	4.67	(6)	0.542	(5)	18	15	15	18	-3
Texas	5.65	(3)	5.16	(10)	0.541	(6)	17	14	17	14	0
Los Angeles	4.93	(9)	5	(8)	0.494	(7)	15	15	16	14	1
Oakland	4.17	(12)	4.52	(3)	0.464	(8)	13	16	11	18	-2
New York	5.55	(4)	6.23	(14)	0.447	(9)	14	17	15	16	1
Chicago	4.17	(13)	4.7	(7)	0.445	(10)	13	17	14	16	1
Seattle	4.09	(14)	4.66	(5)	0.441	(11)	14	18	16	16	2
Minnesota	4.59	(10)	5.28	(11)	0.437	(12)	14	18	15	17	1
Cleveland	5.03	(7)	5.88	(12)	0.43	(13)	14	18	11	21	-3
Baltimore	5.06	(6)	5.94	(13)	0.428	(14)	14	18	13	19	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Toronto	105	57
Boston	101	61
Detroit	92	70
Kansas City	91	71
Texas	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Toronto	102	60
Kansas City	95	67
Boston	92	70
Detroit	89	73
Texas	88	74

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	5	(4)	3.14	(3)	0.7	(1)	5	2	5	2	0
Kansas City	3.86	(9)	2.57	(1)	0.677	(2)	5	2	4	3	-1
Toronto	6.43	(1)	4.43	(7)	0.664	(3)	5	2	4	3	-1
Detroit	3.5	(12)	2.67	(2)	0.622	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Baltimore	5	(4)	4.14	(5)	0.585	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
Tampa Bay	6	(3)	5.14	(10)	0.57	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Los Angeles	3.71	(10)	3.29	(4)	0.556	(7)	4	3	6	1	2
Minnesota	5	(4)	4.43	(7)	0.555	(8)	4	3	3	4	-1
Boston	6.29	(2)	5.57	(11)	0.555	(9)	4	3	5	2	1
Oakland	3.57	(11)	4.43	(7)	0.403	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
New York	4.29	(7)	5.71	(12)	0.371	(11)	3	4	2	5	-1
Cleveland	4.29	(7)	6	(13)	0.351	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Chicago	2.83	(14)	4.33	(6)	0.315	(13)	2	4	2	4	0
Seattle	2.86	(13)	6.86	(14)	0.168	(14)	1	6	1	6	0

¹ - OK, so I typed the wrong homophone. I do know the difference, and at least I spelled the wrong word correctly...

Red Sox: April Audit

A one-month snapshot of the Boston Red Sox and the race in the AL East. (Thanks, as always, to David Pinto's invaluable Day by Day Database. If you're a baseball fan and you're not reading Baseball Musings every day, well, you should be...)

Records:

Boston finishes the month of April at 14-8, in first place in the AL East, percentage points ahead of the 15-9 Toronto Blue Jays.

AL East - April 2009

	W	L	GB	%	R/G	RA/G	Pythagorean	Luck
Boston	14	8	-	.636	5.727	4.864	.574	1
Toronto	15	9	-	.625	5.917	4.667	.607	0
New York	12	10	2	.545	5.818	6.182	.472	2
Baltimore	9	13	5	.409	5.273	6.545	.402	0
Tampa Bay	9	14	5.5	.391	4.783	4.478	.530	-3

• The Red Sox started the month at 2-6, and finished it 1-2. In between, of course, they won 11 straight. They've compiled the best record in the division without necessarily playing the best ball, but I began the season thinking them the best team in the East, and nothing that's happened so far has altered that opinion.



• The Blue Jays have played very well. On a strict runs scored/runs allowed basis, they've been the best team in the AL so far. I don't believe that they can maintain either the run prevention or the run scoring at current levels, though, and still see them as battling Baltimore for the fourth spot in the division.



• Tampa was very good last year, but I maintained all season that their record was better than their performance. So far this year, their performance has been better than their record. They've outscored their opponents, and have essentially played like a 12-11 team rather than a 9-14 one. Expect them to finish well ahead of Baltimore and Toronto, and to be in contention for a playoff spot when September arrives.



• The Yankees are outperforming their run differential, but that's a bit misleading. All it takes is one "disaster" start to skew that differential, particularly with such a small sample size, and they've already had 4, three of them from a pitcher coming back from injury who has now been yanked from the rotation. That's not to say that their pitching has been good, but it's been better than it looks from the runs allowed number. How much it has been, and will continue to be, affected by the new Yankee Stadium remains an open question. But, despite the way they looked in getting swept out of Fenway last weekend, this remains a formidable team, and one which should be battling for a post-season berth all year.



• Baltimore is showing signs of life, for the first time in a decade, but they aren't ready to play with the big boys in this division. If things break right, they could compete with Toronto for fourth, but it's very difficult to imagine a higher finish than that.

Offense:

This chart contains some standard offensive numbers and a couple of more advanced metrics. The last two columns are Bill James' Runs Created, and Runs Created per 25 outs, an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would score with nine hitters performing the way that hitter performed. (The fact that it can end up negative is, indeed, an indicators that these are estimates.)

Red Sox Offense - April 2009

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Kevin Youkilis	21	21	76	20	30	8	0	5	15	14	1	0	.395	.505	.697	1.203	23.7	12.3
Jason Bay	22	22	71	19	23	5	1	5	19	23	2	0	.324	.490	.634	1.123	22.6	11.5
Mike Lowell	21	21	84	12	26	8	1	4	23	3	0	0	.310	.341	.571	.912	13.2	5.1
Jason Varitek	16	16	60	10	15	5	0	4	10	7	0	0	.250	.348	.533	.881	11.4	6.3
Dustin Pedroia	22	22	89	17	25	7	0	1	7	11	3	3	.281	.369	.393	.762	11.3	3.8
Jacoby Ellsbury	22	21	94	12	27	3	0	1	9	5	10	2	.287	.320	.351	.671	10.7	3.6
J.D. Drew	19	17	64	11	15	6	1	3	10	11	0	1	.234	.347	.500	.847	10.0	4.7
David Ortiz	22	22	87	10	20	7	1	0	12	8	0	1	.230	.290	.333	.623	8.6	3.0
Nick Green	18	15	51	7	14	5	0	1	7	1	0	1	.275	.351	.431	.782	7.6	5.0
Jonathan Van Every	5	1	5	1	2	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	.400	.571	1.000	1.571	2.4	20.2
Jeff Bailey	4	3	10	3	2	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	.200	.333	.500	.833	1.8	5.5
Julio Lugo	3	2	6	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.333	.500	.333	.833	1.3	8.3
Rocco Baldelli	5	4	13	2	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.231	.286	.231	.516	.9	2.1
George Kottaras	7	6	17	1	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	.118	.238	.176	.415	.4	.6
Gil Velazquez	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	-2.5
Chris Carter	4	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.5	-2.1
Jed Lowrie	5	5	18	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.056	.150	.056	.206	-.6	-1.0
Team Totals	221	198	752	126	207	55	4	26	121	95	16	8	.275	.364	.463	.827	123.6	5.3

The Red Sox are currently 4th in the AL in offense, averaging 5.73 runs/game.

• The Red Sox offense is up from last year. They're hitting, as a team, .275/.364/.463/.827 vs. the .280/.358/.447/.805 that they hit last year. They're on a pace to score 927 runs vs. the 845 that they hit last year. Offensive levels in the AL in general appear to be up at this point, but it's impossible to say for sure what the season-long run scoring environment will be. I had the Red Sox at 853 runs on the season, and I'm now thinking that 875 or 880 may be the right number. I don't think that they're going to score 927, because I expect Youkilis, Bay and Varitek to drop more than Ortiz, Pedroia and Ellsbury pick up.



• Kevin Youkilis had a monster month.



• The Ortiz numbers are chilling. The team is 4th in the AL in runs/game, and its number 3 hitter and DH is hitting .230/.290/.333/.623 with no home runs. The big question is, of course, is this a "slump" or is this a real change in fundamental performance level? Certainly, good hitters can have bad 80 at-bat stretches. But this is an extremely bad stretch, with no strong recent performance to alleviate the concern. I certainly don't think that this represents a real performance level. But it is not inconcievable that the new "real performance level" is mediocre. This is the biggest source of offensive concern, and the biggest room for improvement going forward.



• Biggest upside surprise: Jason Varitek, who has been very productive thus far. Far more productive than they had any right to reasonably expect. And far more productive than he can be expected to continue.



• Biggest question answered: "Can Mike Lowell come back from his hip surgery and still hit?" Answer: "Yes."



• Jacoby Ellsbury might be the most exciting player in the Major Leagues. And the most frustrating. Because it just isn't all that exciting when he gets to first base and turns right, back to the dugout, which is happening far too often for him to actually be productive. If he can get the On-Base Percentage up to about .350, then he probably does enough to be an adequate lead-off hitter. But he's got a ways to go to get there.



• Jason Bay is not Manny Ramirez, but he's put up a passable imitation thereof for the first month. Not only has he hit the ball well, he's taken a ton of walks. (His career high for walks is 102 - he's currently on a pace to draw nearly 170. Obviously, that's unlikely, but it makes for a very productive month.) And, in the past week, he's hit two monster (in importance) home runs, beating the closer for the Yankees to save a game, and the closer for the Indians to win a game.



• Did I mention that Kevin Youkilis had a monster month?



• Offensive hightlights:
  
  • Dustin Pedroia hitting the second pitch of the season into the Monster Seats.
  
  
  • Ellsbury steals home.
  
  
  • Bay beats Rivera and Wood in the span of four days.
  
  
  • 6 runs scored with two out in the 8th, putting the game away following the 10 inning bullpen effort, to start the winning streak.
  
  
  • Coming back from 7-0 to beat the Orioles.
  
  
  • Coming back from 6-0 to beat A.J. Burnett and the Yankees.
  
  
  • Jonathan Van Every beats the Indians in the 10th with his first ML home run.

Pitching:

The Red Sox finish the month of April 7th in the AL in runs allowed/game, though it was better before last night's 13-0 drubbing at the hands of the Rays.

Red Sox Pitching - April 2009

Player	Games	GS	CG	GF	W	L	WPct	Sv	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	K9	BB9	HR9
Justin Masterson	2	2	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10 2/3	10	2	2	0	3	7	0	0	0	1.6875	5.90625	2.53125	0
Tim Wakefield	4	4	2	0	2	1	0.667	0	0	29	16	6	6	0	12	17	4	0	2	1.86	5.28	3.72	0
Jon Lester	5	5	0	0	1	2	0.333	0	0	30	36	18	18	5	10	33	1	0	1	5.4	9.9	3	1.5
Josh Beckett	5	5	0	0	2	2	0.5	0	0	28 2/3	36	24	23	3	16	31	0	1	0	7.22	9.73	5.02	0.94
Brad Penny	4	4	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17 2/3	24	21	17	5	11	6	1	0	1	8.66	3.06	5.6	2.55
Daisuke Matsuzaka	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6 1/3	14	9	9	3	5	5	1	0	1	12.79	7.11	7.11	4.26
Starters	22	22	2	0	9	6	.600	0	0	122 1/3	136	80	75	16	57	99	7	1	5	5.52	7.28	4.19	1.18
Michael Bowden	1	0	0	0	0	0	-	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9	0	0
Jonathan Van Every	1	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	2/3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.5	0
Manny Delcarmen	10	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13	8	2	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	0	6.92	4.85	0
Ramon Ramirez	10	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	12 1/3	5	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	0	4.38	2.92	0
David H Jones	4	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	5 1/3	3	1	1	1	0	5	0	0	1	1.69	8.44	0	1.69
Jonathan Papelbon	10	0	0	8	0	0	-	6	0	10 1/3	8	2	2	1	6	10	1	0	0	1.74	8.71	5.23	0.87
Takashi Saito	8	0	0	3	0	0	-	2	0	8	11	4	4	2	2	8	0	0	0	4.5	9	2.25	2.25
Justin Masterson	4	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	6	7	3	3	0	1	7	0	0	0	4.5	10.5	1.5	0
Hideki Okajima	12	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	9 2/3	8	6	6	2	7	12	1	0	0	5.59	11.17	6.52	1.86
Javier Lopez	11	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	7 2/3	13	9	8	0	8	3	2	0	1	9.39	3.52	9.39	0
Bullpen	71	0	0	20	5	2	.714	8	0	75	64	27	24	6	36	63	6	0	2	2.88	7.56	4.32	.72
Total	93	22	2	20	14	8	.636	8	0	197 1/3	200	107	99	22	93	162	13	1	7	4.52	7.39	4.24	1.00

• The Good - The bullpen has been as advertised. Deep, and filled with pitchers who strike batters out. Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen combined to throw 25 1/3 April innings without allowing an earned run. Tim Wakefield is on one of his upside runs, and has been far and away their most effective starter.



• The Bad - The starting pitching has been less than stellar. With an ERA of 5.52 and fewer than 6 innings per start, it's a good thing that the bullpen has been special, because they'd have had a significantly less successful month with an average 'pen.



• The Ugly - Three-fifths of the rotation, the first, third and fifth starters, have made a total of 11 starts with an ERA of 8.37.



• Read that last one again. If you'd known before the month started that Beckett, Matsuzaka and Penny would combine for 11 starts and an ERA of 8.37, would you have thought that 14-8 was feasible? No, 8-14 sounds more likely. It really is an almost miraculous month when looked at that way.

Odds and Ends:

• Twelve games at home (10-2), ten on the road (4-6). They had a huge home-road discrepency last year, and it has continued through the first month of this season. They'll probably win more at home than on the road again, but they certainly won't finish with a difference as big as it looks right now.



• It's hard to tell, at this point, how the competition has been. Certainly, the teams that were expected to be good (Yankees, Rays, A's, Angels, Indians) have underperformed thus far. How much of that is inherent weakness, how much is just poor timing, and how much is the fact that they've played Boston is impossible to know.



• They've already finished one of their two trips to the west coast, and the next one's coming up. They'll actually be done in the Pacific time zone on May 17. When the dog days arrive, it'll probably be helpful to have no cross-country flights.



• Prop bets that might have made you a lot of money a month ago:
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jason varitek
  
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jacoby Ellsbury
  
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jonathan Van Every
  
  
  • Wakefield April ERA > 6 runs lower than Beckett April ERA
  
  
  • Innings pitched in April - Hunter Jones + Michael Bowden vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Yankee pitching acquisitions - historic

There's a good piece from the Baseball Crank, who looked Yankee veteran pitcher acquisitions in the free agency era. He concludes that

despite having, in the main, good baseball people working for them throughout most of this period, the Yankees have had flop after flop throughout every stage of the Steinbrenner years...The collective Yield of the group, excluding the foreign pitchers, is 74.6%. The waste of dollars, of young talent in trade, of innings and run support to struggling starters, is enormous...Sabathia looks like a good bet; he's up there with Hunter, Mussina, Cone, Clemens and Johnson among the best pitchers they have acquired, he's a power pitcher with a reasonably good health record and much younger than some of those guys. Burnett's also a power pitcher, but riskier, more like some of the failures...

It's a good piece, with a ton of data.


(On an unrelated note, he also links to this excellent piece on political cartoons in the age of Obama.)

Odds and ends...

I've been almost non-blogging for a couple of months now. There is a reason, and I'll talk about it at some point, but not right yet. For now, I'm going to try to ramp it back up starting this week, but I make no promises as to depth or content or quality.

• Four for four. I'm not positive, but I believe that's the first time I've ever had a perfect Wild Card (or any other) NFL playoff weekend.



• It's too bad that the Yankees figured out that Mark Texeira is exactly what they needed. He improves them more than either of the pitchers.



• The Hall of Fame discussion is in full bloom. Rickey Henderson is obviously a no-brainer. Bert Blyleven should be in, though I'm skeptical that he will be. Henderson hurts Tim Raines, who was essentially a poor man's Henderson, and almost anyone would pale in comparison. I suspect that in his last year on the ballot Jim Rice gets in, which won't bother me much, but he shouldn't.

I'd rather the Red Sox had won, but this is a silver lining to the loss...

As a sports fan, the Rays are a great story. As a Red Sox fan, I'm disappointed in last night's result. But I just saw a comment over at the Baseball Crank's site that almost makes up for last night. (OK, it doesn't almost make up for last night, but it's fun and amusing anyway.

Commenter MVH says, "It's a great day to be a Yankee fan. Thanks, Rays."

It's now a "great day to be a Yankee fan" when the Red Sox fall short of the World Series. For years and years, I've heard Yankee fans mock Red Sox fans as pathetic losers every time Sox fans were happy to see the Yankees eliminated. By that standard, Yankee fans are now conceding pathetic loser-hood. Well done! We knew it all along, of course, but the additional validation is fun to see. Thank you, MVH - you've brought a smile to my face today...