Tuesday, October 09, 2007

DS wrap-up - Bill James Playoff Predictor

How did the Bill James Playoff Predictor do in the Division Series round? It was 2-1-1 (I'm calling the 58-59 Rockies-Phillies prediction a tie.)

Right:
Boston (79) beat Los Angeles of Anaheim (33)
Arizona (92) beat Chicago (33)

Wrong:
New York (83) lost to Cleveland (60)

Tie (essentially):
Colorado (58) beat Philadelphia (59)

It was 2-0 on series where the advantage was over 2:1, 0-1-1 when the advantage was less than 1.5:1.

While it's just a toy, curve-fitting that doesn't necessarily mean much, it had a much better first round than the Baseball Prospectus "Secret Sauce" rankings did. (The sauce "consists of three statistics within the category of pitching and defense — Equivalent Strikeouts Per Nine innings (EqK9), Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), and Closer Performance (as measured by the WXRL of the pitcher with the most save opportunities) — that have been demonstrated to have a predictive relationship with success in the post-season.")

Right (lower is better):
Boston (7.5) beat Los Angeles of Anaheim (27.5)

Wrong:
New York (32.5) lost to Cleveland (48)
Arizona (29) beat Chicago (22)
Colorado (57) beat Philadelphia (49)

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