Tuesday, October 02, 2007

NFL - week 4 wrapup

  • If the Midas touch turns anything to gold, what, exactly, does the "Norv Turner" touch do?

  • I'm never, ever going to be a Brett Favre fan. That said, I have to grudgingly acknowledge that he's playing much better than I thought he could at this point, and that he makes that team competitive.

  • I picked Atlanta the first couple of weeks, playing the contrarian, assuming that the team would rally 'round the flag, as it were. They failed, miserably. They played the kind of game this weekend that I expected from them earlier. Of course, part of this, I think, is the Houston Texans having to deal with success for the first time. I've seen this, I've been a part of this - a team that's used to losing starts to win, and doesn't really know how to deal with it, how to keep the mental edge, and how to play a game that they should win, as opposed to one in which they're the underdog. There's a different mindset required.

  • I'll confess to being very surprised by the Pittsburgh-Arizona result. I had been convinced that the Steelers were better than they are.

  • I was less surprised by the Bills-Jets game. Yes, the Bills were both bad and beaten. But the Jets are not a team that can be counted on. And frankly, while I think it was a bad hit and deserved even more of a fine than the $12,500 he got, Vince Wilfork may have done the Bills a favor by hastening the end of the J.P. Losman era.

  • Tom Brady to Randy Moss looks unfair. But it's tough to tell what the Patriots are until they play a good team. Their four opponents have a combined record of 4-12, and the only wins in that group that looked at all like good wins (San Diego over Chicago, Cincinnati over Baltimore) look significantly less impressive today. It's tough to know how many "good" teams there are in the NFL at this point, and who they might be. It's pretty obvious that the Patriots haven't played any of them yet.

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:

    Philadelphia at NY Giants - "I think that line may be an overreaction to last week's Eagle romp, which reinforced perceptions (that may or may not have been justified) before the season that Philly was strong."

    Baltimore at Cleveland - "I am not at all convinced that Baltimore's defense is the fearsome entity that it used to be, and I don't think much of their offense at all. In Cleveland, this probably ends up being a fairly close game. I started writing this thinking that I was picking Baltimore. I've changed my mind. Cleveland not only covers, they win."

    St. Louis at Dallas - "...you can't have much of an offensive shootout when one of the parties is unarmed...I don't see how St. Louis scores enough not to lose by two touchdowns."

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):

    NY Jets at Buffalo - "Frankly, this line looks like a mistake. The only victory for the Bills this week will be a Gaussian one. If they choose to claim it. On the field, the Jets win easily."

    Oakland at Miami - "The Dolphins have got about four winnable games on their schedule. This is one of them. They take advantage of it..."

    Kansas City at San Diego - "San Diego's not as good as people think they are. But Kansas City is as bad as people think they are. The Chargers are bullies, and they'll beat up on an inferior team this week."

  • For the week:
    Winners: 8-6
    ATS: 8-6

  • For the Season:
    Winners: 38-24
    ATS: 33-25-4

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