Monday Pythagorean - 10/1
The Boston Red Sox are the 2007 AL East division Champions.
- When Okajima and Papelbon blew that 7-2 lead against the Yankees two weeks ago, it resulted in a last week and a half that was a little bit tenser than it otherwise might have been. But the other thing that happened was it put me off by one game on each the Red Sox and Yankees from my pre-season predictions.
"My prediction: The Red Sox win 97 games and the AL East. The Yankees win 93 and the AL Wild Card."
Me, 4/2/07
Final record: The Red Sox win 96 games and the AL East. The Yankees win 94 and the AL Wild Card. Had Okajima and Papelbon held that game, I'd have been exactly right. That NEVER happens...
- I've said repeatedly that you can't predict what will happen in any short series. I believe it. That said, I think that the Red Sox are a better team than the Angels right now, I like the Red Sox offense better, I like the Red Sox starters better and I like the home field advantage. I think that the Red Sox are likely to win this series. But there will be four different divisional playoffs over the course of the next two weeks, and there is no team who will win that will surprise me. That's the way baseball works.
- Over at Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver has updated the "Secret Sauce" rankings. The BP Secret Sauce consists of three pitching/defense related statistics that have been shown to correlate with post-season success. The best team in baseball? Your Boston Red Sox.
According to the Secret Sauce standings, the ALCS should be Boston vs. New York. Again. The NLCS should be Chicago vs. Philadelphia. And the Red Sox should beat the Cubs in the World Series.
Go ahead. Put money on it. I dare you... ;-)
- I'll have more over the next couple of weeks...
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck | Boston | 5.35 | (3) | 4.06 | (1) | 0.624 | (1) | 101 | 61 | 96 | 66 | -5 | New York | 5.98 | (1) | 4.8 | (7) | 0.599 | (2) | 97 | 65 | 94 | 68 | -3 | Cleveland | 5.01 | (6) | 4.35 | (3) | 0.564 | (3) | 91 | 71 | 96 | 66 | 5 | Los Angeles | 5.07 | (4) | 4.51 | (5) | 0.553 | (4) | 90 | 72 | 94 | 68 | 4 | Detroit | 5.48 | (2) | 4.92 | (9) | 0.549 | (5) | 89 | 73 | 88 | 74 | -1 | Toronto | 4.65 | (10) | 4.31 | (2) | 0.534 | (6) | 87 | 75 | 83 | 79 | -4 | Minnesota | 4.43 | (12) | 4.48 | (4) | 0.496 | (7) | 80 | 82 | 79 | 83 | -1 | Oakland | 4.57 | (11) | 4.68 | (6) | 0.49 | (8) | 79 | 83 | 76 | 86 | -3 | Seattle | 4.9 | (7) | 5.02 | (10) | 0.489 | (9) | 79 | 83 | 88 | 74 | 9 | Texas | 5.04 | (5) | 5.21 | (12) | 0.485 | (10) | 79 | 83 | 75 | 87 | -4 | Kansas City | 4.36 | (13) | 4.8 | (8) | 0.456 | (11) | 74 | 88 | 69 | 93 | -5 | Baltimore | 4.67 | (9) | 5.36 | (13) | 0.437 | (12) | 71 | 91 | 69 | 93 | -2 | Tampa Bay | 4.83 | (8) | 5.83 | (14) | 0.415 | (13) | 67 | 95 | 66 | 96 | -1 | Chicago | 4.28 | (14) | 5.18 | (11) | 0.413 | (14) | 67 | 95 | 72 | 90 | 5 | |
|---|
| Boston | 96 | 66 |
| Cleveland | 96 | 66 |
| New York | 94 | 68 |
| Los Angeles | 94 | 68 |
| Detroit | 88 | 74 |
| Boston | 96 | 66 |
| Cleveland | 96 | 66 |
| New York | 94 | 68 |
| Los Angeles | 94 | 68 |
| Detroit | 88 | 74 |
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck | Detroit | 5.67 | (5) | 2.83 | (1) | 0.78 | (1) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | Boston | 5.83 | (4) | 3.83 | (3) | 0.683 | (2) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | Cleveland | 4.57 | (8) | 3.29 | (2) | 0.647 | (3) | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | Texas | 5.67 | (5) | 4.17 | (5) | 0.637 | (4) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | Toronto | 6.14 | (3) | 4.71 | (7) | 0.619 | (5) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | New York | 7.43 | (1) | 5.71 | (12) | 0.618 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | Chicago | 4.83 | (7) | 4.33 | (6) | 0.55 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | Seattle | 4.14 | (10) | 3.86 | (4) | 0.533 | (8) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Baltimore | 6.29 | (2) | 8 | (14) | 0.391 | (9) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | Tampa Bay | 4.5 | (9) | 6 | (13) | 0.371 | (10) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | Kansas City | 2.86 | (11) | 4.71 | (7) | 0.286 | (11) | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | Minnesota | 2.86 | (11) | 4.86 | (9) | 0.275 | (12) | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | Oakland | 2.8 | (14) | 5 | (10) | 0.257 | (13) | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | Los Angeles | 2.83 | (13) | 5.33 | (11) | 0.239 | (14) | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
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Labels: 2007, baseball, baseball prospectus, pythagorean, Red Sox, secret sauce
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