Monday, October 01, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 10/1

The Boston Red Sox are the 2007 AL East division Champions.

- When Okajima and Papelbon blew that 7-2 lead against the Yankees two weeks ago, it resulted in a last week and a half that was a little bit tenser than it otherwise might have been. But the other thing that happened was it put me off by one game on each the Red Sox and Yankees from my pre-season predictions.
"My prediction: The Red Sox win 97 games and the AL East. The Yankees win 93 and the AL Wild Card."
Me, 4/2/07

Final record: The Red Sox win 96 games and the AL East. The Yankees win 94 and the AL Wild Card. Had Okajima and Papelbon held that game, I'd have been exactly right. That NEVER happens...

- I've said repeatedly that you can't predict what will happen in any short series. I believe it. That said, I think that the Red Sox are a better team than the Angels right now, I like the Red Sox offense better, I like the Red Sox starters better and I like the home field advantage. I think that the Red Sox are likely to win this series. But there will be four different divisional playoffs over the course of the next two weeks, and there is no team who will win that will surprise me. That's the way baseball works.

- Over at Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver has updated the "Secret Sauce" rankings. The BP Secret Sauce consists of three pitching/defense related statistics that have been shown to correlate with post-season success. The best team in baseball? Your Boston Red Sox.

According to the Secret Sauce standings, the ALCS should be Boston vs. New York. Again. The NLCS should be Chicago vs. Philadelphia. And the Red Sox should beat the Cubs in the World Series.

Go ahead. Put money on it. I dare you... ;-)

- I'll have more over the next couple of weeks...













AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 10/1/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.35(3)4.06(1)0.624(1)101619666-5

New York5.98(1)4.8(7)0.599(2)97659468-3

Cleveland5.01(6)4.35(3)0.564(3)917196665

Los Angeles5.07(4)4.51(5)0.553(4)907294684

Detroit5.48(2)4.92(9)0.549(5)89738874-1

Toronto4.65(10)4.31(2)0.534(6)87758379-4

Minnesota4.43(12)4.48(4)0.496(7)80827983-1

Oakland4.57(11)4.68(6)0.49(8)79837686-3

Seattle4.9(7)5.02(10)0.489(9)798388749

Texas5.04(5)5.21(12)0.485(10)79837587-4

Kansas City4.36(13)4.8(8)0.456(11)74886993-5

Baltimore4.67(9)5.36(13)0.437(12)71916993-2

Tampa Bay4.83(8)5.83(14)0.415(13)67956696-1

Chicago4.28(14)5.18(11)0.413(14)679572905




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9666

Cleveland9666

New York9468

Los Angeles9468

Detroit8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9666

Cleveland9666

New York9468

Los Angeles9468

Detroit8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit5.67(5)2.83(1)0.78(1)5133-2

Boston5.83(4)3.83(3)0.683(2)42420

Cleveland4.57(8)3.29(2)0.647(3)5243-1

Texas5.67(5)4.17(5)0.637(4)4233-1

Toronto6.14(3)4.71(7)0.619(5)43521

New York7.43(1)5.71(12)0.618(6)43430

Chicago4.83(7)4.33(6)0.55(7)33421

Seattle4.14(10)3.86(4)0.533(8)43521

Baltimore6.29(2)8(14)0.391(9)34340

Tampa Bay4.5(9)6(13)0.371(10)24240

Kansas City2.86(11)4.71(7)0.286(11)25250

Minnesota2.86(11)4.86(9)0.275(12)25341

Oakland2.8(14)5(10)0.257(13)14140

Los Angeles2.83(13)5.33(11)0.239(14)15241

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