Congratulations, Dustin Pedroia, Rookie of the Year

In a non-surprise, the writers got it right and awarded the 2007 American League Rookie of the Year award to Boston 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia. The NL award went to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun.

Timing is everything - AL Cy Young edition

I made a comment following game 1 of the ALCS that no potential Cy Young winner ever benefited more from the ballots being cast before the post-season started than C.C. Sabathia did this year. Game 5 just exacerbates that. When the balloting happened, I suspect that Sabathia won, though we won't know for a while. If they were to vote today, I think Beckett wins, and it isn't close. It is almost astounding how much things have changed over just three starts.

Post-season performance

	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	IP/G
Sabathia	3	15 1/3	8.8	2.283	5.11
Beckett	3	23	1.17	0.609	7.67

This is where they were before the post-season started.

Through the end of the regular season

	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	IP/G
Sabathia	34	241	3.21	1.141	7.09
Beckett	30	200 2/3	3.27	1.141	6.69

Based on ERA+, strikeout rate and some other stuff, I think Beckett pitched better than Sabathia, but not a lot better. And Sabathia had a huge innings advantage. But they've each taken the mound three times since balloting ended.

Through Game 5 of the ALCS

	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	IP/G
Sabathia	37	256 1/3	3.55	1.24	6.93
Beckett	33	223 2/3	3.06	1.11	6.78

Look at how much those numbers have changed based on just three more starts. Sabathia went from a very small raw ERA advantage to a pretty big disadvantage. Beckett closed the innings gap without closing the games started gap. Just an enormous difference, and if the Cy Young voting took place today, based on everything that's happened so far, it's a no-brainer that Beckett should win.

The blogosphere is a strange and mysterious place

I discovered this morning that on September 3, someone translated my Pythagorean report into German.

I don't know why. But it is...interesting...

Monday Pythagorean - 10/1

The Boston Red Sox are the 2007 AL East division Champions.

- When Okajima and Papelbon blew that 7-2 lead against the Yankees two weeks ago, it resulted in a last week and a half that was a little bit tenser than it otherwise might have been. But the other thing that happened was it put me off by one game on each the Red Sox and Yankees from my pre-season predictions.
"My prediction: The Red Sox win 97 games and the AL East. The Yankees win 93 and the AL Wild Card."

Me, 4/2/07

Final record: The Red Sox win 96 games and the AL East. The Yankees win 94 and the AL Wild Card. Had Okajima and Papelbon held that game, I'd have been exactly right. That NEVER happens...

- I've said repeatedly that you can't predict what will happen in any short series. I believe it. That said, I think that the Red Sox are a better team than the Angels right now, I like the Red Sox offense better, I like the Red Sox starters better and I like the home field advantage. I think that the Red Sox are likely to win this series. But there will be four different divisional playoffs over the course of the next two weeks, and there is no team who will win that will surprise me. That's the way baseball works.

- Over at Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver has updated the "Secret Sauce" rankings. The BP Secret Sauce consists of three pitching/defense related statistics that have been shown to correlate with post-season success. The best team in baseball? Your Boston Red Sox.

According to the Secret Sauce standings, the ALCS should be Boston vs. New York. Again. The NLCS should be Chicago vs. Philadelphia. And the Red Sox should beat the Cubs in the World Series.

Go ahead. Put money on it. I dare you... ;-)

- I'll have more over the next couple of weeks...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 10/1/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.35	(3)	4.06	(1)	0.624	(1)	101	61	96	66	-5
New York	5.98	(1)	4.8	(7)	0.599	(2)	97	65	94	68	-3
Cleveland	5.01	(6)	4.35	(3)	0.564	(3)	91	71	96	66	5
Los Angeles	5.07	(4)	4.51	(5)	0.553	(4)	90	72	94	68	4
Detroit	5.48	(2)	4.92	(9)	0.549	(5)	89	73	88	74	-1
Toronto	4.65	(10)	4.31	(2)	0.534	(6)	87	75	83	79	-4
Minnesota	4.43	(12)	4.48	(4)	0.496	(7)	80	82	79	83	-1
Oakland	4.57	(11)	4.68	(6)	0.49	(8)	79	83	76	86	-3
Seattle	4.9	(7)	5.02	(10)	0.489	(9)	79	83	88	74	9
Texas	5.04	(5)	5.21	(12)	0.485	(10)	79	83	75	87	-4
Kansas City	4.36	(13)	4.8	(8)	0.456	(11)	74	88	69	93	-5
Baltimore	4.67	(9)	5.36	(13)	0.437	(12)	71	91	69	93	-2
Tampa Bay	4.83	(8)	5.83	(14)	0.415	(13)	67	95	66	96	-1
Chicago	4.28	(14)	5.18	(11)	0.413	(14)	67	95	72	90	5

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	96	66
Cleveland	96	66
New York	94	68
Los Angeles	94	68
Detroit	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	96	66
Cleveland	96	66
New York	94	68
Los Angeles	94	68
Detroit	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	5.67	(5)	2.83	(1)	0.78	(1)	5	1	3	3	-2
Boston	5.83	(4)	3.83	(3)	0.683	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Cleveland	4.57	(8)	3.29	(2)	0.647	(3)	5	2	4	3	-1
Texas	5.67	(5)	4.17	(5)	0.637	(4)	4	2	3	3	-1
Toronto	6.14	(3)	4.71	(7)	0.619	(5)	4	3	5	2	1
New York	7.43	(1)	5.71	(12)	0.618	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Chicago	4.83	(7)	4.33	(6)	0.55	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Seattle	4.14	(10)	3.86	(4)	0.533	(8)	4	3	5	2	1
Baltimore	6.29	(2)	8	(14)	0.391	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Tampa Bay	4.5	(9)	6	(13)	0.371	(10)	2	4	2	4	0
Kansas City	2.86	(11)	4.71	(7)	0.286	(11)	2	5	2	5	0
Minnesota	2.86	(11)	4.86	(9)	0.275	(12)	2	5	3	4	1
Oakland	2.8	(14)	5	(10)	0.257	(13)	1	4	1	4	0
Los Angeles	2.83	(13)	5.33	(11)	0.239	(14)	1	5	2	4	1

Odds and ends...

A couple of thoughts as the regular season winds down...

• Yankee newsgroup trolls have mocked the Red Sox every time they've celebrated reaching the post-season via Wild Card. I expect to hear less of that, given the champagne celebration the Yankees had last night on clinching the play-offs.



• The first round is almost certain to be Anaheim at Boston and New York at Cleveland. The Red Sox and Indians are 3 games ahead of the Yankees and Angels. If the season were to end this way, Boston would be the 1st seed because of head-to-head record vs. Cleveland, but the Red Sox and Yankees cannot, by rule, meet in the first round.



• I actually feel sorry (well, more sorry than usual) for Tampa Bay fans this morning (if there are any.) This is their 10th Major League season, and they've yet to win more than 70 games in any of them. They're in the most disheartening division in baseball, because they've got two of the uber-teams, teams that have both tremendous baseball acumen and massive financial resources blocking their path to the play-offs. Both of those teams play in front of essentially home crowds in the Rays' own ballpark. And now, in the span of five days, they've had to watch both of them clinch and celebrate on their own field.
  
  That stinks (more than usual) for the Devil Rays fans (if there are any.)



• There is a perception in certain quarters that the Red Sox were great early, but have struggled since. Ask anyone who has played better since the All Star break, and they'll probably list all of the other AL play-off teams, and maybe someone else.
  
  It is true that New York and Cleveland have better records since the All Star break than Boston. But they're the only AL teams for whom that's true. And if you look at run differential and pythagorean records, something interesting pops out.
  
  The Red Sox were not only the best team in the AL before the All Star break, they've been the best team in the AL since the All Star break. They've just underperformed (or, to coin a phrase, "Gagned") their projection by 5+ games while the Yankees and Indians have exceeded theirs by 3 each. From a run differential point of view, only the Yankees, who have outscored their opposition by 100 runs, have come close to the Red Sox 110 run margin. LAA's 55 is third, Cleveland's 42 is tied for fourth. Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe wrote a piece last week about the Red Sox being the fourth best of the AL play-off contenders. That's just silly.



• Anyone who believes he knows what is going to happen in the play-offs is lying to himself. Anyone who tells you that he knows what's going to happen is lying to you. These teams will have won within 3-5 of the same number of games over a 162 games schedule. The idea that anyone knows what's going to happen in a 5-game series based on that is just silly. That's the way baseball works. There is too much luck involved in any given game for a short series to mean anything. Come Sunday evening, there will be 8 teams left. The best one, Boston, has essentially the same 12.5% chance of winning the World Series as the worst one, whoever that is (Cubs? Brewers? Padres? Rockies? I don't know.) No one should be shocked or even surprised to see any given team win or lose any given series.
  
  And don't listen to anyone who later tells you, "I knew that was going to happen."
  

  One of the most systematic errors in human perception is what psychologists call hindsight bias -- the feeling, after an event happens, that we knew all along it was going to happen. Across a wide spectrum of issues, from politics to the vagaries of the stock market, experiments show that once people know something, they readily believe they knew it all along.

  
  Shankar Vedantam's article is about Iraq war opposition, but the hindsight bias comment is obviously relevant to baseball play-offs...
  
  So, you want my prediction for who will win the World Series? OK, here it is. The World Series winner will be...one of the eight teams that make the playoffs.

Red Sox Magic Number - 9/27

New York's win in Tampa Bay clinches the Wild Card for the Yankees.
Boston's win at home over Oakland drops the magic number for winning the AL East to two (2). The lead is 3 games with four to play.

If Boston goes 2-2 (.500), they win the East
If Boston goes 1-3 (.250), Yankees need to go 4-0 (1.000) to win.
If Boston goes 0-4 (.000), Yankees need to go 3-1 (.750) to win.

Red Sox Magic Number - September 26

Boston beat Oakland, 7-3.
New York lost in Tampa, 7-6 in 10 innings.

The Magic Number for the Red Sox to clinch their first AL East title in 12 years is THREE (3).

If Boston goes 3-2 (.600), they win the East
If Boston goes 2-3 (.400), Yankees need to go 5-0 (1.000) to win.
If Boston goes 1-4 (.200), Yankees need to go 4-1 (.800) to win.
If Boston goes 0-5 (.000), Yankees need to go 3-2 (.600) to win.

Manny back in the lineup

Manny Ramirez is batting 2nd and playing left field tonight. He ended missing exactly the same number of days with his oblique strain as noted tough guy, dirt dog, gamer Trot Nixon did with his oblique strain two years ago.

Tonight's lineup:

2B - Pedroia
LF - Ramirez
DH - Ortiz
3B - Lowell
RF - Drew
C - Varitek
CF - Crisp
1B - Hinske
SS - Lugo

Red Sox Magic Number - 9/24

New York loses to Toronto, 4-1, this afternoon in the Bronx. With 6 games remaining for each team, Boston holds a two game lead. New York wins the east if they finish tied.

The Magic Number is now 5.


If Boston goes 5-1 (.833), they win the East
If Boston goes 4-2 (.667), Yankees need to go 6-0 (1.000) to win.
If Boston goes 3-3 (.500), Yankees need to go 5-1 (.833) to win.
If Boston goes 2-4 (.333), Yankees need to go 4-2 (.667) to win.
If Boston goes 1-5 (.167), Yankees need to go 3-3 (.500) to win.
If Boston goes 0-6 (.000), Yankees need to go 2-4 (.333) to win.

Monday Pythagorean - 9/24

One more week of the regular season, and all that remains is setting rotations, resting players, re-integrating returning players. Oh, and deciding the play-off seeding.

• With 6 games remaining for Boston and 7 for New York, the Red Sox have a 1 game lead in the loss column. The Yankees win the East if they tie. So basically, the situation is this. If the Red Sox lose more games than the Yankees this week, the Yankees win the east. Otherwise, the Red Sox do.



• Boston, New York, Anaheim and Cleveland will be the four AL playoff teams. Boston cannot play New York in the first round, but everything else is up for grabs. Each one of those teams has 63-65 losses. Any of the four could finish with the best record in baseball, any could finish with the 4th best record in the AL.



• It is clear that the four best records in the AL are going to be playing post-season ball. It is also very likely that absent the Wild Card, one of the two best teams would be sitting home.



• I had some things to say about last week's action, but I've pretty much already said them...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/24/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.33	(3)	4.06	(1)	0.622	(1)	97	59	92	64	-5
New York	5.91	(1)	4.75	(7)	0.598	(2)	93	62	90	65	-3
Los Angeles	5.16	(4)	4.48	(5)	0.564	(3)	88	68	92	64	4
Cleveland	5.03	(5)	4.39	(3)	0.561	(4)	87	68	92	63	5
Detroit	5.47	(2)	5	(9)	0.541	(5)	84	72	85	71	1
Toronto	4.58	(11)	4.3	(2)	0.529	(6)	82	73	78	77	-4
Minnesota	4.5	(12)	4.46	(4)	0.505	(7)	78	77	76	79	-2
Oakland	4.63	(9)	4.67	(6)	0.496	(8)	78	79	75	82	-3
Seattle	4.94	(7)	5.07	(10)	0.488	(9)	76	79	83	72	7
Texas	5.01	(6)	5.25	(13)	0.479	(10)	75	81	72	84	-3
Kansas City	4.43	(13)	4.81	(8)	0.462	(11)	72	83	67	88	-5
Baltimore	4.59	(10)	5.24	(12)	0.44	(12)	68	87	66	89	-2
Tampa Bay	4.84	(8)	5.82	(14)	0.416	(13)	65	91	64	92	-1
Chicago	4.26	(14)	5.21	(11)	0.408	(14)	64	92	68	88	4

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	96	66
Los Angeles	96	66
Cleveland	96	66
New York	94	68
Detroit	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	96	66
Cleveland	96	66
Los Angeles	95	67
New York	94	68
Detroit	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	7.5	(1)	4.5	(6)	0.718	(1)	4	2	5	1	1
Chicago	5	(4)	3.29	(1)	0.683	(2)	5	2	4	3	-1
Toronto	6.17	(2)	4.67	(8)	0.625	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Seattle	5.57	(3)	4.29	(5)	0.618	(4)	4	3	5	2	1
Cleveland	5	(4)	4.17	(4)	0.583	(5)	3	3	5	1	2
Los Angeles	4.57	(6)	3.86	(3)	0.577	(6)	4	3	5	2	1
Minnesota	4.5	(7)	3.83	(2)	0.573	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Detroit	4.5	(7)	5	(10)	0.452	(8)	3	3	2	4	-1
Boston	4.17	(10)	4.67	(8)	0.448	(9)	3	3	2	4	-1
Texas	3.71	(11)	4.57	(7)	0.406	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Oakland	4.33	(9)	5.67	(12)	0.38	(11)	2	4	1	5	-1
Baltimore	3.57	(12)	5.71	(14)	0.297	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Tampa Bay	3.5	(13)	5.67	(12)	0.293	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
Kansas City	3.14	(14)	5.14	(11)	0.289	(14)	2	5	3	4	1

Red Sox Magic Number - September 23 - Play-off berth clinched

The Red Sox victory over Tampa Bay on Saturday night, combined with the Tigers' loss to Kansas City, means that Boston becomes the the first team to clinch a play-off berth in 2007. (The Angels are guaranteed at least a tie for the AL West and/or the Wild Card and the Indians are guaranteed at least a tie for the AL Central, but Boston has actually clinched one of the four play-off spots.)

The magic number for the Red Sox to win the AL East is 6, with seven games remaining.

If Boston goes 6-1 (.857), they win the East
If Boston goes 5-2 (.714), Yankees need to go 7-1 (.875) to win.
If Boston goes 4-3 (.571), Yankees need to go 6-2 (.750) to win.
If Boston goes 3-4 (.429), Yankees need to go 5-3 (.625) to win.
If Boston goes 2-5 (.286), Yankees need to go 4-4 (.500) to win.
If Boston goes 1-6 (.143), Yankees need to go 3-5 (.375) to win.
If Boston goes 0-7 (.000), Yankees need to go 2-6 (.250) to win.

Red Sox Magic Number - September 22

Finally, after nearly a week, the magic number to win the east drops again.

To win the AL East:
MAGIC NUMBER = 7

To clinch a play-off spot:
MAGIC NUMBER = 2


For the east,
If Boston goes 7-1 (.875), they win the East
If Boston goes 6-2 (.750), Yankees need to go 8-1 (.889) to win.
If Boston goes 5-3 (.625), Yankees need to go 7-2 (.778) to win.
If Boston goes 4-4 (.500), Yankees need to go 6-3 (.667) to win.
If Boston goes 3-5 (.375), Yankees need to go 5-4 (.556) to win.
If Boston goes 2-6 (.250), Yankees need to go 4-5 (.444) to win.
If Boston goes 1-7 (.125), Yankees need to go 3-6 (.333) to win.
If Boston goes 0-8 (.000), Yankees need to go 2-7 (.222) to win.

Power outage

The Baseball Crank has been looking at the power decline in the Major Leagues this year, and has some interesting stuff...

Momentum in baseball. Utterly, totally, absolutely irrelevant.

Repeating myself, but the argument needs to be made. There is, once again, massive debate over the importance of MOMENTUM, over whether the Red Sox are doomed to lose quickly in the play-offs if they don't win the division. People keep calling WEEI, and posting on message boards, about how the Red Sox run in 2004, starting with game 4 of the ALCS, demonstrates the importance of having MOMENTUM in the post-season.

This requireth a rant.

How on God's earth can people keep suggesting that 2004 demonstrates the importance of MOMENTUM? What team EVER had more momentum than the 2004 Yankees after taking the first two games of the ALCS and then blowing out the Red Sox in game 3 in Fenway?

How'd that MOMENTUM work out for you?

And who's got the MOMENTUM when the Yankees take a 1 run lead into the 9th of game 4 with a 3-0 series lead and Rivera on the mound?

How'd that MOMENTUM work out for you?

And who's got the momentum when Jeter doubles off of Pedro to take a 4-2 lead in the 6th of game 5 when they're already up 3 games to 1?

How'd that MOMENTUM work out for you?


The Tigers stumbled into the play-offs last year, losing the division on the last day after having had a bigger lead in August than the Red Sox did this year, and went on to the World Series. The Minnesota Twins, who stormed back from a big deficit to take that division, lost in the first round.

How'd that MOMENTUM work out for you?


MOMENTUM means NOTHING in baseball. Zip, zero, nada.

Never has.

Never will.

Thus endeth the rant...

A rich source of awful logic

One of the places that tends to be rich in logical fallacies is the sports world. I don't know if anyone at WEEI knows what post hoc ergo propter hoc means, but that's what they're spending their time doing the past couple of days. The entire focus is how the play-offs will determine the rightness or wrongness of the September approach.

I've got news for you, guys. They may play badly leading into the play-offs and get swept out. That will prove nothing about whether resting players was the right approach. There's just far too much timing and luck involved in baseball for 3-10 games to mean anything. The fact that Boston just lost three in a row to Toronto does not mean that Toronto's a better team than Boston. If Boston coasts into the play-offs as the Wild Card, and loses in the first round, that doesn't mean that coasting in was a mistake. If they play the next week as if they were play-off games and hold off the Yankees to win the division, and then lose in the first round, that doesn't mean that playing all out was a mistake. They'll win in the playoffs, or they'll lose, and their record in September will have NOTHING to do with it.

Week 3 NFL Picks

Arizona (-8) at Baltimore - Let's start right out with the facts - I don't know what I'm doing. I don't have any idea how to rate these two teams. What is the Baltimore offense, really? What is the Baltimore defense, really? What are the Cardinals, with a loss at San Francisco and a win at home against Seattle? I see the Ravens as the better team. But I don't trust their offense. At all. And, based on the fourth quarter against the Jets, the defense isn't what people thought it is, either. I can't see Arizona going in and winning, and I can see them getting blown out, if the Baltimore defense scores a couple of times. I'm thinking that doesn't happen, and that Baltimore wins, but Arizona loses close.

Buffalo at New England (+15) - 15 points? In an NFL game? Between division rivals? I pick the Patriots, because I always pick the Patriots. You can't bet an NFL team to win by more than two touchdowns, but I'm doing it anyway. And, frankly, the only thing that would be surprising about a 3rd 38-14 score for NE would be the Bills getting into the endzone twice.

Detroit (-6.5) at Philadelphia - There must be a way to mock Donovan McNabb this week, but whenever I try to start, I just end up saddened. This is the legacy of Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, and the race hustlers in this country. Donovan McNabb has been one of the most overrated players in the NFL since he entered it, and he's got the gall to claim that he takes more criticism than white quarterbacks because of his skin color? Revolting. I am now, officially, going against Philadelphia every week, and not solely because they can't score.

Indianapolis (+5) at Houston - Houston's off to a great 2-0 start, and could take sole possession of first place in the AFC South with a win over the Colts this Sunday, in Houston, where they beat the Colts the last time they played. Interesting matchup - Mario Williams vs. Tony Ugoh. Can the Colts keep Manning upright? I'd love to see the Texans win this. Ain't gonna happen.

Miami at N.Y. Jets (+3) - Which of these 0-2 division rivals is worse? The Dolphins are a better defensive team, the Jets are a better offensive team. I'm guessing that the home team Jets give the AFC East its first win by a team other than the Patriots.

Minnesota (-2.5) at Kansas City - I don't think much of the Vikings. The fact that I'm picking them to go into Kansas City and win should tell you what I think of the Chiefs.

San Diego (+3.5) at Green Bay - Talent mismatch. The Chargers are overrated, but not even the Norv Turner factor keeps them from going into Lambeau and winning by a touchdown or more.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (+9) - San Francisco was a chic picks in many places to be a big improver this year. They're 2-0, including a win at division rival St. Louis last week. Whatever. I'm still not buying. Steelers win, and cover.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (+4) - Not picking the Buccaneers. Nope. Don't believe in them, don't trust them, wouldn't pick them. I'm picking against the Rams instead. If they can't win on their own turf against San Francisco and Carolina, how are they going to win on grass?

Cincinnati at Seattle (+3) - Bengals meeting to review the film of the Browns game in flu-like symptoms for most of the defensive players. When Sunday arrives, half the team is still too sick to take the field. Replaced by a combination of backups, practice squad players, ball boys and cheerleaders, they manage to hold the Seattle offense to 24, fewer than half of what they gave up Cleveland. But Ocho Cinco's new touchdown celebration starts five yards before he gets to the end-zone, and he forgets to actually carry the ball across the line. Seattle's defensive touchdown results in a 28-24 Seahawks win.

Cleveland at Oakland (+3) - I'm thinking of the movie "Oh, God," when George Burns told John Denver that his last miracle was the 1969 Mets. That's been superseded. I won't pick Oakland many times this year, but Cleveland won't score 51 in their next 3. Raiders win and cover.

Jacksonville at Denver (+3) - Jacksonville's game winning field goal with no time left on the clock will be called back when Mike Shanahan tells the officials that he meant to call a timeout. Del Rio goes nuts on the sideline, Jacksonville is assessed 15 yards, and tries again from 65 yards. The Broncos block it and run it in for a touchdown.

Carolina (+4) at Atlanta - Good win, bad loss. That's Carolina's history the past couple of years. It isn't a good win this week, but it's a win nonetheless.

N.Y. Giants at Washington (+4) - The resistable force vs. the movable object. Give this one to the 'Skins, as the Giants can't stop anyone.

Dallas (-3) at Chicago - This one's an interesting strength vs. strength (Dallas O, Chicago D) and weakness vs. weakness (Dallas D, Chicago O) matchup. If this is one of the 3 scheduled appearances of good Rex for the year, Chicago wins fairly easily. I'm thinking not.

Tennessee (-5) at New Orleans - As I write this, I'm thinking "Go with the Saints - the Saints are a better team - they're at home - they're due." And just as I get ready to change the pick, I think "AFC vs. NFC. How have these two teams dealt with the Colts during the first two weeks?" Tennessee it is. At least, right now, it is. I may change this three more times before Monday.

Terry Francona is not a moron.

I've seen and heard a lot of criticism, even condemnation, of Terry Francona for not pulling Gagne after he walked the bases loaded last night. Yes, that was a frustrating game last night. Yes, Gagne has been a disaster. Yes, if your primary goal was winning that game, he should have been pulled before the game-tying walk.

But that obviously isn't the primary goal. Francona's not a moron. If we all can see what's happening, he can see it, too. We've got enough of a track record with him now to be able to understand what's happening. That would never happen in a playoff game. But they aren't playing playoff games yet - they're getting ready to go to the playoffs*. One of the things that they need to do is understand, before they set the rosters, whether Gagne is salvagable or not.

That stunk last night, but going into the post-season with the best record (which they still have, by the way) is not as important as going in with the right roster. As we've seen repeatedly. The only goal of the regular season is to win enough games to be playing in the post-seaons. Period. Sometime in the next few days, the Red Sox will have accomplished that this year.

The last time the team with the best record in baseball won a World Series was in 1998, when the Yankees did it. In the last 5 years, the AL representative in the World Series has gotten into the post-season via the Wild Card 3 times. Last year, the AL sent Detroit to the World Series, a team that led its division all year, had a bigger lead in August than the Red Sox did this year, and ended up losing its division late.

None of that means that I want them to go in as the Wild Card. I haven't given up on the division. I want them to win it, and think that there's some importance to doing so. But it pales in significance to setting the roster. And playing well in the playoffs. Last night's loss, in the grand scheme of things, doesn't mean as much as a win with Gagne getting out of that inning would have. So they left him in.

And prepare yourselves, because it (bringing him into a tight situation late and letting him pitch) is very likely to happen again...


* - And don't even bother with panic talk about how that might keep them out of the playoffs. They're 7 up in the loss column on Detroit with 10 to play, the magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 4. They'll be playing in the playoffs.


Update:
Over at Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan agrees with me (though he's coming at the same question from a different perspective.) [Subscription required]

Look at how Terry Francona has managed his squad all month, in the knowledge that his team is going to October. He’s been resting players all around the roster, diddling with his rotation, and trying experiments like "let’s see how many batters Eric Gagne can walk in one inning." ... I can’t quantify the effects of rest on a player’s performance, but I can say that the cost of doing so—possibly ending up as the wild card versus winning the division—is essentially zero...It doesn’t matter who wins the AL East. It just matters that both the Yankees and the Red Sox stay ahead of the Tigers. As long as both are doing that, there’s no reason to care about who ends up with the better seed.

Eric Gagne's trail of woe

On July 31, the Red Sox acquired closer Eric Gagne from Texas, adding to a strength, as they already had the most effective bullpen in the AL. The idea was to bolster the bullpen, shorten the game, and give Okajima and Papelbon a little more rest. The move was universally praised. I thought that it was a smart move - I still think that it was a smart move. There will be second-guessers mocking the front office for this one, but I won't be one of them. You judge a move based on what you know at the time. It looked like a good idea.

But it has been a disaster. A complete and total disaster. The magnitude of the problem can be understood when you say that they'd have been far better off had Gagne gotten hurt before ever taking the mound for the team. While it's rare that you can ever blame one player for a loss, a late inning reliever has to take that responsibility when he blows it. This team has four losses for which Gagne is directly responsible.

1. Friday, August 10 - Boston's bats rally in the 8th at Baltimore, and they take 5-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th. Gagne comes in and allows 4 runs while retiring one batter. Boston loses, 6-5.


2. Sunday, August 12 - Two days later, Boston takes a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th. Gagne comes in, walks the first batter, gives up a 2-run homer to the third. Boston loses in 10, 6-3.


3. Friday, August 17 - Five days after that, poised to take a double-header from the Angels after the Red Sox batters against score 4 in the bottom of the 8th, Gagne comes out to protect a 5-4 lead. He gives up 3 runs after retiring the first batter, and Boston loses 7-5.


4. Tuesday, September 18 - An excellent performance by Jon Lester brings the Red Sox to the 8th inning with a 2-1 lead. Gagne retires the first two Toronto batters in the bottom of the 8th. Walk, single, walk loads the bases. Walk ties the game. Double drives in two more. Boston scores one in the 9th, but loses 4-3.

And the magic number is still 9, and the lead is down to 2 in the loss column, and there are four games which they almost certainly would have won had they not made the deadline trade for Gagne, and there aren't any games to point at on the plus side, games where he has made a positive difference.

He has allowed at least one run in 7 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed the tying or go-ahead run in 4 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed one or more baserunners in 14 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed 30 baserunners in just 14 innings. He's allowed 14 runs, for an ERA of 9.00.

He has, in short, been a disaster.

Update: Baseball Crank emails: "Eric Gagne is French for Calvin Schiraldi."

Monday Pythagorean - 9/17

The Red Sox lost 3 times this week, the Yankees lost twice. They go into the last two weeks with Boston up 4 1/2, 4 in the loss column, with a magic number of 9.

• Many people conceded the AL East to the Red Sox back in May, some even in April. I was not one of them. Had they won last night, I'd have called it this morning. But they didn't. And, again, because of last night, New York wins the season series, and wins the division if they finish in a tie. So I'm not willing to call it yet. I still believe that Boston holds on and wins the East, but they need to keep winning, at least a little bit longer.



• I had a debate a couple of weeks ago with someone who thought Francona had done a poor job with the pitching staff this year, leaving starters in too long. I disagreed, but Schilling shouldn't have been pitching the 8th last night. That was a mistake.



• The week could have been better, as two of the best relief pitchers in baseball this year had their least effective outings of the season on the same night Friday. On the other hand, it could easily have been worse, as they were down by 7 early on Tuesday, and down to their last out on Wednesday before winning both of those games. On the whole, they needed to get through the week with their lead intact, and they basically did. They went into the weekend needing 1 win to maintain control of the division, and they did that.



• In the race for the best record in baseball (the top 4 teams are all in the AL), Boston currently leads both Cleveland and LAnaheim by 2 1/2, 2 in the loss column.



• Three in Toronto, three in Tampa Bay this week, and that will close the road portion of the Red Sox schedule.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/17/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.38	(3)	4.04	(1)	0.628	(1)	94	56	90	60	-4
New York	5.85	(1)	4.77	(7)	0.592	(2)	88	61	85	64	-3
Los Angeles	5.19	(4)	4.51	(5)	0.564	(3)	84	65	87	62	3
Cleveland	5.03	(6)	4.4	(3)	0.56	(4)	83	66	87	62	4
Detroit	5.51	(2)	5	(9)	0.544	(5)	82	68	83	67	1
Toronto	4.52	(11)	4.28	(2)	0.524	(6)	78	71	74	75	-4
Minnesota	4.5	(12)	4.48	(4)	0.502	(7)	75	74	72	77	-3
Oakland	4.64	(9)	4.63	(6)	0.501	(8)	76	75	74	77	-2
Texas	5.07	(5)	5.28	(12)	0.482	(9)	72	77	70	79	-2
Seattle	4.91	(7)	5.11	(10)	0.481	(10)	71	77	78	70	7
Kansas City	4.49	(13)	4.79	(8)	0.47	(11)	70	78	64	84	-6
Baltimore	4.64	(10)	5.22	(11)	0.447	(12)	66	82	64	84	-2
Tampa Bay	4.89	(8)	5.83	(14)	0.421	(13)	63	87	63	87	0
Chicago	4.22	(14)	5.3	(13)	0.397	(14)	59	90	64	85	5

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	97	65
Los Angeles	95	67
Cleveland	95	67
New York	92	70
Detroit	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	98	64
Los Angeles	94	68
Cleveland	94	68
New York	93	69
Detroit	90	72

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Cleveland	5.33	(6)	3.33	(1)	0.703	(1)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	6.83	(2)	4.67	(6)	0.668	(2)	4	2	3	3	-1
Los Angeles	6.67	(3)	4.83	(7)	0.643	(3)	4	2	3	3	-1
Oakland	7.71	(1)	5.86	(11)	0.623	(4)	4	3	5	2	1
Detroit	4.86	(8)	4	(2)	0.588	(5)	4	3	6	1	2
Tampa Bay	5.43	(5)	5	(8)	0.538	(6)	4	3	3	4	-1
New York	4.5	(9)	4.17	(3)	0.535	(7)	3	3	4	2	1
Chicago	4.5	(9)	5	(8)	0.452	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Texas	6.14	(4)	6.86	(13)	0.45	(9)	3	4	2	5	-1
Minnesota	3.67	(12)	4.17	(3)	0.442	(10)	3	3	2	4	-1
Baltimore	5.17	(7)	7.33	(14)	0.345	(11)	2	4	3	3	1
Kansas City	3.17	(14)	4.5	(5)	0.345	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Toronto	3.57	(13)	5.14	(10)	0.339	(13)	2	5	2	5	0
Seattle	3.86	(11)	6.29	(12)	0.29	(14)	2	5	3	4	1

Week 2 - NFL picks

Atlanta (+11) at Jacksonville - This week, we start by recycling last week's commentary on both of these teams. There is no reason to pick Atlanta here. None. Jacksonville's not good enough to be a 7 point favorite over anyone. That said, they're probably good enough to beat Atlanta. Atlanta covers, Jacksonville wins.

Buffalo (+10) at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh looked like world-beaters last week. It was an illusion, as they were playing a Cleveland team that promptly traded its starting QB - for a 6th round draft pick! So we don't know how good the Steelers are. The Bills are a fairly tough, fairly physical, fairly well-coached team. If only the Tin Man had a heart, if only the Scarecrow had a brain, if only the Bills had a quarterback. I don't think that Buffalo goes into Pittsburgh and wins. But I think that they play the Steelers tough, and lose close.

Cincinnati (-7) at Cleveland - The lock of the week. Cleveland spent 7 weeks of training camp choosing the quarterback who gave them the best chance to win. And then benched him after 1 half and traded him after one game. Cincinnati covers this if they score 8 or more. I vote "more."

Green Bay at New York Giants (pick 'em) - Is Eli actually developing into a real NFL QB? Or is the Dallas defense just a lost cause? Of course, the Giant defense is nothing to write home about, either. I know that this is heresy, but I think that Bret Favre was overrated even when he was great, and that he's declined more than his reputation has. I'm going with the home team here, because, while the Giants can't stop a real offense, I don't believe that the Packers have one.

Houston (+7) at Carolina - AFC 98-pound weakling kicks sand in the face of NFC bully. Carolina played a good game in St. Louis last week - I'm betting that they can't do it two weeks in a row. Houston with the upset.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+8) - I was all set here to start with "Tennessee is the last team to beat the Colts." Research, unfortunately, reveals that both Jacksonville and Houston beat them after the Titans, rendering that fantastic beginning, well, somewhat less than fantastic. I'd love to pick the Titans here, with their pounding running game against the Colts undersized defense, with the home-field advantage, but I just can't quite bring myself to do it. The game's outside, on real turf, but Colts are 15-1 in September in the last four years and ... Oh, what the hell - Tennessee 27, Colts 24.

New Orleans (-3) at Tampa Bay - New Orleans played ... poorly last week. They're unlikely to play that poorly again. Even if they do, it's probably enough to beat (and cover against) the Buccaneers...

San Francisco at St. Louis (-3) - The 1-0 team is not quite as good as the 0-1 team. The 1-0 team is on the road. The 0-1 team wins (and covers). Leaving us with two 1-1 teams. Which is about what these two teams are...

Dallas (-3) at Miami - As long as Terence Newman is out, the Cowboys have got a real defensive problem. They can't stop a good offense. You can see where I'm going with this... Miami holds Dallas to 21, but they can't score 14 themselves.

Minnesota at Detroit (-3) - Detroit wins big. Or loses. It depends. (How's that for useful commentary?) Kitna can throw the ball, Martz is still an offensive genius, they've got receivers. I can see this team, several times this year, putting up a lot of points. I can also see them throwing a lot of picks and losing painfully. I'm guessing that this week, it's the former.

Seattle (-3) at Arizona - I'd love to pick the Cardinals here. I don't like Mike Holmgren, and any residual affection that I had for the Seahawks back in the days of Zorn and Largent seems to have dissipated. I'd love to see Leinart succeed, and I think he could in the right place. But I can't go against Seattle here - they win by a touchdown or more.

Kansas City at Chicago (-13) - I don't know whether good Rex or bad Rex shows up. I don't care. I don't think it matters. Chicago's defense and special teams outscores KC by 14. Or more.

New York Jets at Baltimore (-11) - Many Jets fans have been eager and anxious for Kellen Clemens to replace Chad Pennington. They're going to get their wish. How cliche would it be, right now, to say "be careful what you wish for?" Very. I'm going to say it anyway. Going to Baltimore, to face a Ravens team that got jobbed by the officials on Monday night, is not the scenario under which you'd prefer your maybe/possibly/could be/hope-he-is QB of the future to be making his first NFL start. Obviously, Baltimore wins and covers. Not because the Ravens' offense will do much, but they'll do enough. The real question is, what's the over/under on negative pass plays (interceptions & sacks) for the Jets? I'm saying 7, and betting the over...

Oakland (+10) at Denver - The Broncos put up big yardage against the Bills, but had to kick a 42-yard field goal as time expired to win a close, low-scoring game. Oakland lost at home to Detroit, but the offense scored. I'm not yet sold on Cutler, Oakland's defense is good - I don't think that the Raiders can win, but they'll keep it close. Denver wins, Oakland beats the spread.

San Diego at New England (-4) - I'll have more on this one later. For now, let me keep this short and simple - the Patriots are a better team, they have better players, they have better coaching, and they'll win this one by a touchdown or more.

Washington (+7) at Philadelphia - The Redskins were life and death to beat Miami, in overtime, at home. The Eagles were life and death to lose to Green Bay on the road. Seven points is too big for any games between these two teams, both of which are pretty well coached, have decent defenses, and aren't offensive powerhouses. Philadelphia wins but doesn't cover, and neither team gets out of the mid-teens.