Friday, October 19, 2007

Timing is everything - AL Cy Young edition

I made a comment following game 1 of the ALCS that no potential Cy Young winner ever benefited more from the ballots being cast before the post-season started than C.C. Sabathia did this year. Game 5 just exacerbates that. When the balloting happened, I suspect that Sabathia won, though we won't know for a while. If they were to vote today, I think Beckett wins, and it isn't close. It is almost astounding how much things have changed over just three starts.

Post-season performance

Sabathia315 1/38.82.2835.11


This is where they were before the post-season started.

Through the end of the regular season


Beckett30200 2/33.271.1416.69

Based on ERA+, strikeout rate and some other stuff, I think Beckett pitched better than Sabathia, but not a lot better. And Sabathia had a huge innings advantage. But they've each taken the mound three times since balloting ended.

Through Game 5 of the ALCS

Sabathia37256 1/33.551.246.93

Beckett33223 2/

Look at how much those numbers have changed based on just three more starts. Sabathia went from a very small raw ERA advantage to a pretty big disadvantage. Beckett closed the innings gap without closing the games started gap. Just an enormous difference, and if the Cy Young voting took place today, based on everything that's happened so far, it's a no-brainer that Beckett should win.

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