The Red Sox lost 3 times this week, the Yankees lost twice. They go into the last two weeks with Boston up 4 1/2, 4 in the loss column, with a magic number of 9.
- Many people conceded the AL East to the Red Sox back in May, some even in April. I was not one of them. Had they won last night, I'd have called it this morning. But they didn't. And, again, because of last night, New York wins the season series, and wins the division if they finish in a tie. So I'm not willing to call it yet. I still believe that Boston holds on and wins the East, but they need to keep winning, at least a little bit longer.
- I had a debate a couple of weeks ago with someone who thought Francona had done a poor job with the pitching staff this year, leaving starters in too long. I disagreed, but Schilling shouldn't have been pitching the 8th last night. That was a mistake.
- The week could have been better, as two of the best relief pitchers in baseball this year had their least effective outings of the season on the same night Friday. On the other hand, it could easily have been worse, as they were down by 7 early on Tuesday, and down to their last out on Wednesday before winning both of those games. On the whole, they needed to get through the week with their lead intact, and they basically did. They went into the weekend needing 1 win to maintain control of the division, and they did that.
- In the race for the best record in baseball (the top 4 teams are all in the AL), Boston currently leads both Cleveland and LAnaheim by 2 1/2, 2 in the loss column.
- Three in Toronto, three in Tampa Bay this week, and that will close the road portion of the Red Sox schedule.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/17/2007
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Boston | 5.38 | (3) | 4.04 | (1) | 0.628 | (1) | 94 | 56 | 90 | 60 | -4
| | New York | 5.85 | (1) | 4.77 | (7) | 0.592 | (2) | 88 | 61 | 85 | 64 | -3
| | Los Angeles | 5.19 | (4) | 4.51 | (5) | 0.564 | (3) | 84 | 65 | 87 | 62 | 3
| | Cleveland | 5.03 | (6) | 4.4 | (3) | 0.56 | (4) | 83 | 66 | 87 | 62 | 4
| | Detroit | 5.51 | (2) | 5 | (9) | 0.544 | (5) | 82 | 68 | 83 | 67 | 1
| | Toronto | 4.52 | (11) | 4.28 | (2) | 0.524 | (6) | 78 | 71 | 74 | 75 | -4
| | Minnesota | 4.5 | (12) | 4.48 | (4) | 0.502 | (7) | 75 | 74 | 72 | 77 | -3
| | Oakland | 4.64 | (9) | 4.63 | (6) | 0.501 | (8) | 76 | 75 | 74 | 77 | -2
| | Texas | 5.07 | (5) | 5.28 | (12) | 0.482 | (9) | 72 | 77 | 70 | 79 | -2
| | Seattle | 4.91 | (7) | 5.11 | (10) | 0.481 | (10) | 71 | 77 | 78 | 70 | 7
| | Kansas City | 4.49 | (13) | 4.79 | (8) | 0.47 | (11) | 70 | 78 | 64 | 84 | -6
| | Baltimore | 4.64 | (10) | 5.22 | (11) | 0.447 | (12) | 66 | 82 | 64 | 84 | -2
| | Tampa Bay | 4.89 | (8) | 5.83 | (14) | 0.421 | (13) | 63 | 87 | 63 | 87 | 0
| | Chicago | 4.22 | (14) | 5.3 | (13) | 0.397 | (14) | 59 | 90 | 64 | 85 | 5
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Boston | 97 | 65
|
| Los Angeles | 95 | 67
|
| Cleveland | 95 | 67
|
| New York | 92 | 70
|
| Detroit | 90 | 72
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Boston | 98 | 64
|
| Los Angeles | 94 | 68
|
| Cleveland | 94 | 68
|
| New York | 93 | 69
|
| Detroit | 90 | 72
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Cleveland | 5.33 | (6) | 3.33 | (1) | 0.703 | (1) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0
| | Boston | 6.83 | (2) | 4.67 | (6) | 0.668 | (2) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1
| | Los Angeles | 6.67 | (3) | 4.83 | (7) | 0.643 | (3) | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1
| | Oakland | 7.71 | (1) | 5.86 | (11) | 0.623 | (4) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1
| | Detroit | 4.86 | (8) | 4 | (2) | 0.588 | (5) | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2
| | Tampa Bay | 5.43 | (5) | 5 | (8) | 0.538 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1
| | New York | 4.5 | (9) | 4.17 | (3) | 0.535 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1
| | Chicago | 4.5 | (9) | 5 | (8) | 0.452 | (8) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Texas | 6.14 | (4) | 6.86 | (13) | 0.45 | (9) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1
| | Minnesota | 3.67 | (12) | 4.17 | (3) | 0.442 | (10) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1
| | Baltimore | 5.17 | (7) | 7.33 | (14) | 0.345 | (11) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1
| | Kansas City | 3.17 | (14) | 4.5 | (5) | 0.345 | (12) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0
| | Toronto | 3.57 | (13) | 5.14 | (10) | 0.339 | (13) | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0
| | Seattle | 3.86 | (11) | 6.29 | (12) | 0.29 | (14) | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1
| |
|---|
Labels: 2007, baseball, magic number, pythagorean, Red Sox
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