Monday, September 17, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 9/17

The Red Sox lost 3 times this week, the Yankees lost twice. They go into the last two weeks with Boston up 4 1/2, 4 in the loss column, with a magic number of 9.

  • Many people conceded the AL East to the Red Sox back in May, some even in April. I was not one of them. Had they won last night, I'd have called it this morning. But they didn't. And, again, because of last night, New York wins the season series, and wins the division if they finish in a tie. So I'm not willing to call it yet. I still believe that Boston holds on and wins the East, but they need to keep winning, at least a little bit longer.


  • I had a debate a couple of weeks ago with someone who thought Francona had done a poor job with the pitching staff this year, leaving starters in too long. I disagreed, but Schilling shouldn't have been pitching the 8th last night. That was a mistake.


  • The week could have been better, as two of the best relief pitchers in baseball this year had their least effective outings of the season on the same night Friday. On the other hand, it could easily have been worse, as they were down by 7 early on Tuesday, and down to their last out on Wednesday before winning both of those games. On the whole, they needed to get through the week with their lead intact, and they basically did. They went into the weekend needing 1 win to maintain control of the division, and they did that.


  • In the race for the best record in baseball (the top 4 teams are all in the AL), Boston currently leads both Cleveland and LAnaheim by 2 1/2, 2 in the loss column.


  • Three in Toronto, three in Tampa Bay this week, and that will close the road portion of the Red Sox schedule.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/17/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.38(3)4.04(1)0.628(1)94569060-4

New York5.85(1)4.77(7)0.592(2)88618564-3

Los Angeles5.19(4)4.51(5)0.564(3)846587623

Cleveland5.03(6)4.4(3)0.56(4)836687624

Detroit5.51(2)5(9)0.544(5)826883671

Toronto4.52(11)4.28(2)0.524(6)78717475-4

Minnesota4.5(12)4.48(4)0.502(7)75747277-3

Oakland4.64(9)4.63(6)0.501(8)76757477-2

Texas5.07(5)5.28(12)0.482(9)72777079-2

Seattle4.91(7)5.11(10)0.481(10)717778707

Kansas City4.49(13)4.79(8)0.47(11)70786484-6

Baltimore4.64(10)5.22(11)0.447(12)66826484-2

Tampa Bay4.89(8)5.83(14)0.421(13)638763870

Chicago4.22(14)5.3(13)0.397(14)599064855




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9765

Los Angeles9567

Cleveland9567

New York9270

Detroit9072




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9864

Los Angeles9468

Cleveland9468

New York9369

Detroit9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Cleveland5.33(6)3.33(1)0.703(1)42420

Boston6.83(2)4.67(6)0.668(2)4233-1

Los Angeles6.67(3)4.83(7)0.643(3)4233-1

Oakland7.71(1)5.86(11)0.623(4)43521

Detroit4.86(8)4(2)0.588(5)43612

Tampa Bay5.43(5)5(8)0.538(6)4334-1

New York4.5(9)4.17(3)0.535(7)33421

Chicago4.5(9)5(8)0.452(8)33330

Texas6.14(4)6.86(13)0.45(9)3425-1

Minnesota3.67(12)4.17(3)0.442(10)3324-1

Baltimore5.17(7)7.33(14)0.345(11)24331

Kansas City3.17(14)4.5(5)0.345(12)24240

Toronto3.57(13)5.14(10)0.339(13)25250

Seattle3.86(11)6.29(12)0.29(14)25341

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