Thursday, September 20, 2007

Week 3 NFL Picks

Arizona (-8) at Baltimore - Let's start right out with the facts - I don't know what I'm doing. I don't have any idea how to rate these two teams. What is the Baltimore offense, really? What is the Baltimore defense, really? What are the Cardinals, with a loss at San Francisco and a win at home against Seattle? I see the Ravens as the better team. But I don't trust their offense. At all. And, based on the fourth quarter against the Jets, the defense isn't what people thought it is, either. I can't see Arizona going in and winning, and I can see them getting blown out, if the Baltimore defense scores a couple of times. I'm thinking that doesn't happen, and that Baltimore wins, but Arizona loses close.

Buffalo at New England (+15) - 15 points? In an NFL game? Between division rivals? I pick the Patriots, because I always pick the Patriots. You can't bet an NFL team to win by more than two touchdowns, but I'm doing it anyway. And, frankly, the only thing that would be surprising about a 3rd 38-14 score for NE would be the Bills getting into the endzone twice.

Detroit (-6.5) at Philadelphia - There must be a way to mock Donovan McNabb this week, but whenever I try to start, I just end up saddened. This is the legacy of Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, and the race hustlers in this country. Donovan McNabb has been one of the most overrated players in the NFL since he entered it, and he's got the gall to claim that he takes more criticism than white quarterbacks because of his skin color? Revolting. I am now, officially, going against Philadelphia every week, and not solely because they can't score.

Indianapolis (+5) at Houston - Houston's off to a great 2-0 start, and could take sole possession of first place in the AFC South with a win over the Colts this Sunday, in Houston, where they beat the Colts the last time they played. Interesting matchup - Mario Williams vs. Tony Ugoh. Can the Colts keep Manning upright? I'd love to see the Texans win this. Ain't gonna happen.

Miami at N.Y. Jets (+3) - Which of these 0-2 division rivals is worse? The Dolphins are a better defensive team, the Jets are a better offensive team. I'm guessing that the home team Jets give the AFC East its first win by a team other than the Patriots.

Minnesota (-2.5) at Kansas City - I don't think much of the Vikings. The fact that I'm picking them to go into Kansas City and win should tell you what I think of the Chiefs.

San Diego (+3.5) at Green Bay - Talent mismatch. The Chargers are overrated, but not even the Norv Turner factor keeps them from going into Lambeau and winning by a touchdown or more.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (+9) - San Francisco was a chic picks in many places to be a big improver this year. They're 2-0, including a win at division rival St. Louis last week. Whatever. I'm still not buying. Steelers win, and cover.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (+4) - Not picking the Buccaneers. Nope. Don't believe in them, don't trust them, wouldn't pick them. I'm picking against the Rams instead. If they can't win on their own turf against San Francisco and Carolina, how are they going to win on grass?

Cincinnati at Seattle (+3) - Bengals meeting to review the film of the Browns game in flu-like symptoms for most of the defensive players. When Sunday arrives, half the team is still too sick to take the field. Replaced by a combination of backups, practice squad players, ball boys and cheerleaders, they manage to hold the Seattle offense to 24, fewer than half of what they gave up Cleveland. But Ocho Cinco's new touchdown celebration starts five yards before he gets to the end-zone, and he forgets to actually carry the ball across the line. Seattle's defensive touchdown results in a 28-24 Seahawks win.

Cleveland at Oakland (+3) - I'm thinking of the movie "Oh, God," when George Burns told John Denver that his last miracle was the 1969 Mets. That's been superseded. I won't pick Oakland many times this year, but Cleveland won't score 51 in their next 3. Raiders win and cover.

Jacksonville at Denver (+3) - Jacksonville's game winning field goal with no time left on the clock will be called back when Mike Shanahan tells the officials that he meant to call a timeout. Del Rio goes nuts on the sideline, Jacksonville is assessed 15 yards, and tries again from 65 yards. The Broncos block it and run it in for a touchdown.

Carolina (+4) at Atlanta - Good win, bad loss. That's Carolina's history the past couple of years. It isn't a good win this week, but it's a win nonetheless.

N.Y. Giants at Washington (+4) - The resistable force vs. the movable object. Give this one to the 'Skins, as the Giants can't stop anyone.

Dallas (-3) at Chicago - This one's an interesting strength vs. strength (Dallas O, Chicago D) and weakness vs. weakness (Dallas D, Chicago O) matchup. If this is one of the 3 scheduled appearances of good Rex for the year, Chicago wins fairly easily. I'm thinking not.

Tennessee (-5) at New Orleans - As I write this, I'm thinking "Go with the Saints - the Saints are a better team - they're at home - they're due." And just as I get ready to change the pick, I think "AFC vs. NFC. How have these two teams dealt with the Colts during the first two weeks?" Tennessee it is. At least, right now, it is. I may change this three more times before Monday.

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