NFL Picks, Week 14

NFL picks for week 14:

Thursday night:

Pittsburgh (-10) at Cleveland - Did the NFL schedule Thursday night dogs, just because it's the only football available? Or did someone think that the Browns were going to be a real team?

NFL Picks, Week 13

NFL picks for week 13:

Thursday Night

NY Jets at Buffalo Bills (+3) - This is not what the NFL was looking for when they introduced their Thursday schedule. Phone banks at the cable and satellite companies light up today with customers demanding that the NFL Network be removed from their channel lineups.

UPDATE (Sunday/Monday games):

Philadelphia (-5.5) at Atlanta - One bird of pray is still flying fairly high, the other's trying to stay aloft on a crippled wing.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-5) - I can't even generate the energy to pretend that I've got anything to say about this game.

St. Louis at Chicago (-9.5) - The Bears take advantage of a game against a much weaker opponent to pretend that they're still big, bad and fearsome. All of which are true, to some extent, but not in any of the senses that they want them to be true.

Detroit at Cincinnati (-13) - In Detroit, I'd pick the Lions to keep it close. But they aren't in Detroit.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Indianapolis - I don't believe that the Colts or Saints finishes undefeated, so I'll be picking against them until they lose. First up, under this new policy, are the Tennessee Titans and Vince Young, winners of five straight, and going for six in a game that is essentially a playoff game for them.

New Orleans at Washington (+10) - Short week, off a big win, with nothing much to play for - this is the week that New Orleans falls.

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-14.5) - Remember Thanksgiving? Remember how Oakland paid me back for believing they could keep it close against a good team on the road? Yeah, that was the last time.

Houston (-2) at Jacksonville - Here are two more teams trying to keep playoff hopes alive. The winner still has a legitimate (but unlikely) shot at a playoff berth, the Jaguars are done with a loss.

Denver (-6) at Kansas City - The Denver team that beat the Giants on Thanksgiving night, with 10 days off, has to be at least a double-digit pick over the Chiefs.

New England (-5) at Miami - Monday night's loss to New Orleans may have been the most dispiriting, depressing performance of the Patriots in the Belichick era. Not that there haven't been the occasional bad losses, because there have, but usually they've been "one of those games." Games that you could write off or discount. This one showed a tremendous disparity between the perception of the team and its performance. If, as I expect, they win in Miami today, it will be their first win of the year in someone else's home stadium. Their only road win thus far came against a weak Tampa team in London. I do expect them to win today, but there's a lot - a LOT - more that will have to be done to cleanse the palate of that Monday debacle...

San Diego (-13.5) at Cleveland - Has there been a more inept offensive team in recent memory than the Cleveland Browns?

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+2.5) - I don't care that the Giants are struggling or that the Cowboys are in firt place in the NFC East

San Francisco (-1) at Seattle - So the oddsmakers think that the 49ers are only four points better on a neutral field? I don't think so.

Minnesota at Arizona (+3.5) - As my irrational dislike of the Vikings and their aged QB rears its ugly head yet again.

Baltimore (+3.5) at Green Bay - I expect this to be much better than last week's Monday night game.

NFL picks, Week 12

Picks for week 12 of the 2009 NFL season...

Thanksgiving games:

Green Bay at Detroit (+12) - Obviously, Green Bay is going to win this. But the Lions are going to give the entire nation something extra to be thankful for, as they give us a competitive game, at least through three quarters, and lose by 10 or less.

Oakland (+14) at Dallas - Again, there's no question about who wins this game - the Cowboys do. And it gives me a bad feeling to be picking the Raiders, even if it's only picking them to keep it within two touchdowns. But picking the Cowboys to cover two touchdowns made me even queasier.

N.Y. Giants at Denver (+6) - The conventional wisdom is that the Broncos are in free fall and the Giants are back on track. Maybe it's true, in which case I'm wrong here. But I'm not quite ready to buy either of those propositions, and Denver's still a tough place to play.

Post-Thanksgiving Games:

Tampa Bay (+12) at Atlanta - The Falcons, as much as they've struggled, are still too good to lose to Tampa at home. But they won't win by much.

Miami (-3) at Buffalo - The Dolphins are still harboring hopes of repeating as division champs. The Bills are playing out the string while wooing Mike Shanahan. This one goes exactly as you'd think it would.

Cleveland (+14) at Cincinnati - Yet another split pick. Bengals win by less than 14.

Indianapolis at Houston (+3.5) - The streak ends. Because...well, because I want it to.

Carolina at N.Y. Jets (-3) - It seems odd to be picking a team which has lost 6 of its last 7, doesn't it? And the Panthers are two games better than the Jets over the last seven. Yeah, I could see the Jets losing, but I just cannot pick Carolina.

Washington at Philadelphia (-9) - The Eagles won by 10 in Washington a month ago. Expect a game like any other, only more so.

Seattle (-3) at St. Louis - St. Louis is possibly the only place I'd be picking the Seahawks to cover ANY spread on the road.

Kansas City (+14) at San Diego - The Chiefs are showing signs of life. The Chargers, playing better, are still not to be trusted against an inferior opponent. I can't see Kansas City winning, but I can sure see it closer than two touchdowns.

Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3) - Here's something that's absolutely shocking - if the season ended today, the 6-4 Jacksonville Jaguars would make the playoffs. Will they still be in that spot at 6-5 on Monday? I doubt it.

Chicago at Minnesota (-11) - Are we in the home stretch of the Lovie Smith era in Chicago?

Arizona (+2) at Tennessee - Yes, the Titans have been much better of late. Yes, the Cardinals can't always be trusted to play well against a perceived inferior team. I am stunned, nonetheless, to see Tennessee favored in this game.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2) - If Roethlisberger were playing, I'd still be picking the Ravens (despite the fact that they gave away the game last week against Indianapolis.)

New England (+3) at New Orleans - The Saints have played better than New England thus far, albeit against an easier schedule. But they aren't going to finish undefeated, and they aren't going to finish undefeated because they're going to lose against the Patriots on Monday.

NFL Picks, Week 11

Picks for week 11 of the 2009 NFL season...

Thursday:

Miami at Carolina (-3) - Anyone who's been reading me for any length of time knows that I don't think much of the Panthers, but I haven't thought much of the Dolphins, either, and the loss of Ronnie Brown is a tough one for that team to overcome.

UPDATED with Sunday's picks:

Pittsburgh (-10) at Kansas City - I know that it's on the road. I know that the Chiefs won last week. I know that I've been a Chiefs backer pretty often this year, thinking highly of both the GM and the QB. All of that and the Steelers' problems running the ball notwithstanding, it's hard to imagine this not being Pittsburgh by two scores or more.

Seattle at Minnesota (-10.5) - Another game in which the talent discrepancy leaves me with nothing interesting whatsoever to say.

Washington at Dallas (-11) - The Cowboys, riding high, got spanked by the Packers last week in a result that I didn't see coming. And the Redskins beat the Broncos handily. Which leaves your humble game-picker in a state of confusion. I guess that I need to see more than one week in a row.

San Francisco (+7) at Green Bay - I suspect that this is an "I like Singletary" wishful-thinking pick. I certainly can't justify it.

Buffalo (+9) at Jacksonville - This could easily go the other way, but I'm betting on the Bills being shamed by the firing of their coach into picking it up and putting an NFL effort on the field against another of the AFC's also rans.

Cleveland at Detroit (-3.5) - Hmm... St. Louis vs. Oakland? Cleveland vs. Oakland? St. Louis vs. Detroit? Detroit vs. Kansas City? Hmm... It's tough to tell. This might actually be the worst game that NFL schedule-makers could give us this season.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (+1.5) - The Colts came from behind, yet again, to pull out another game and run their regular season winning streak to 17. If it's going to end anytime soon, it ends this week.

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-7) - As bad as the Giants have been, well, the Falcons have been nearly that bad. And the Giants are at home and coming off of a bye week.

New Orleans (-11) at Tampa Bay - Let me say this clearly, leaving no room for mis-interpretation - the Saints are NOT going undefeated this season. Not now way, not no how. That said, they ARE going undefeated this week.

Arizona (-9) at St. Louis - A good NFL team would have to really play down to get beaten by the dreadful Rams. And the Cardinals are just the team to do it. But it's not the way to bet.

San Diego (+0) at Denver - This game is actually off the board right now, because no one knows whether Orton's playing or not. I'm thinking that it doesn't actually matter. San Diego's righted the ship, Denver's taking on water, and this one goes to the Chargers by 4-7 regardless of who plays QB for the Broncos.

N.Y. Jets at New England (-11) - Blowout. Payback for the Jets for week 2 (and Wes Welker and Jarod Mayo are back while Kris Jenkins is gone), payback for the world for the abuse heaped this past week, the Patriots put the hammer down early and keep it down. The Jets would be lucky to score 10 or hold the Patriots under 30.

Cincinnati (-10) at Oakland - The Raiders might win this game on Sunday. And I might vote for Barack Obama in 2012. And the sun may rise in the West. I'm not putting money on any of those things happening.

Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago - Chicago is closer to the Atlantic Ocean than San Diego or Oakland. Is it close enough for the Eagles to function? All signs point to yes.

Tennessee at Houston (-4.5) - Tennessee played about as bad a game as an NFL team can play in the snows of Foxboro. Then they took a much-needed week off. Since then, they haven't lost, and the rumors of the demise of Jeff Fisher turned out to be exaggerated. Can they run the winning streak to four in a row? Doesn't seem likely.

NFL Picks, Week 10

Because the NFL Thursday schedule starts this week...


Picks for week 10 of the 2009 NFL season...

Chicago at San Francisco (-3) - I know that the 49ers have come upon hard times. And it's hard to believe that there are any good NFL QB questions to which the answer is "Alex Smith." And I hate the '85 Bears. But I don't hate Mike Singletary, still have enormous respect for him, and have a lot more confidence in him to get a team playing over its than I do in Lovie Smith getting anything out of his team.

UPDATE:


Atlanta (-1.5) at Carolina - Well, obviously the Falcons are a far superior team. I'm not sure that more commentary than that is really necessary.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-10.5) - With last week's shocker, we now know that the 2009 team isn't going to be the 2nd Tampa Bay Buccaneers team to finish a season winless. They also aren't going to be the second Tampa Bay Buccaneers team to win a Super Bowl. And they should savor that last win, as it's going to have to last them for a while.

Detroit (+17) at Minnesota - OK, you all know that I think the Vikings are overrated and the Lions are improving. And 17 is a huge number. But is there really any reason to think that it won't be all of that and more? Not a good one, not that I can see. And yet here I am, doing it anyway.

Denver (-4) at Washington - Now that the Broncos have learned how to lose, they're going to go into Washington and fall aga...never mind. It takes two to tango, and the Redskins can't seem to muster more than a waltz.

Buffalo (+6.5) at Tennessee - Do even the people in Buffalo and Tennessee care about this one? Is there anything interesting here?

New Orleans (-14) at St. Louis - This one vies with the Baltimore-Cleveland Monday-Nighter for the title, "Mismatch of the Week." The only question here is differential. Can the Rams, at home, keep it under two touchdowns? I think not.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7) - The Bengals' win over the Steelers in September was an early sign that this year might be different for Cincinnati. If they go in to Pittsburgh and do it again, that gives them a huge advantage in the race for the AFC North title. But I think it unlikely. The Steelers started slowly, but they're playing well now, and I don't see them losing this one.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (-7) - I think that this is a tough call. The Jaguars aren't a good team, but are the Jets? They've got a rookie QB hitting the rookie wall, they're missing their best defensive player, and they're 1-4 in their last five games, including two home losses to division opponents. And there's a risk of them looking ahead to their trip to New England next weekend. I'm picking New York, but it's a very lukewarm, not really trustworthy kind of pick.

Kansas City (+1.5) at Oakland - When some resource is limited by a rationing mechanism, care must be taken to use it at the right time. I've committed to using the Pete Axthelm line only once per year. Do I use it here, in week 10? Might there be a better choice in week 12 or 13? Will there be a time that I regret not having it available to me? I don't know. It's tough to picture that there's going to be a better spot, but I think I'm going to hold on to it a little bit longer.

Seattle at Arizona (-8.5) - If Arizona were consistent about being what they are, this would be a no-brainer. But they tend to be consistent only in their inconsistency.

Dallas (-3) at Green Bay - I hate the Cowboys, but the Packers seem to have justified every bit of my lack of faith in them. That might have been even a worse loss than Phildelphia's debacle in Oakland.

Philadelphia at San Diego (-1.5) - The Eagles' last trip to the Golden State didn't turn out very well, and the Chargers have started to look like a talented NFL team again.

New England (+2.5) at Indianapolis - Even if I didn't pick the Patriots every week, I'd pick them this week. The Colts have done a great job surviving injuries to their secondary, but it's hard to see how they get Brady and the Patriot offense off the field. I'm a little bit concerned about the Patriots defense still, but they've played well, and while I'm sure we're not looking at a shut-out, they should be able to make enough stops to allow the Patriots offense to win it. It should be a great game.

Baltimore (-10.5) at Cleveland - This one serves a dual theological purpose. It's shown as a blessing to Ravens' fans in Heaven, and as a punishment to Browns' fans in Hell.

NFL Week 9 wrapup

Week 9 in the NFL...

• The Patriots roll continues. I continue to think that there's nothing particularly spectacular about beating the Dolphins, but they're putting consistent solid performances out there now, week after week.



• Sunday night's game is obviously of vital importance. The Colts, given their 8-0 start and remaining schedule, have the inside track on one of the AFC byes regardless of the outcome. The Patriots are behind the Colts on record, behind the Broncos on a tie-breaker, behind the Steelers on conference record and tied with the Bengals. They've got no room for error, and probably cannot go into the playoffs with a first-round bye with another conference loss.



• Hey, Joey Porter made a lot more noise before the game than during it, didn't he?



• Note to NBC executives: The presence of Keith Olbermann drives many who would be interested in Football Night in America away from that program. Some of us don't make it back for the game. Whatever your ratings are, it is difficult for me to imagine that they wouldn't be higher without him.



• What's going on with the Giants? It pains me to see them struggling so. Not.



• Rising: Dallas, Tennessee, Cincinnati



• Falling: NY Giants, NY Jets, San Francisco



• Yeah, the Jets didn't play this week. I like writing that they're falling...(and they have lost four out of five [which I also like writing.])



• Obvious pick: Carolina at New Orleans



• Obvious Pick which was dead wrong: Green Bay at Tampa Bay, Tennessee at San Francisco



• Somewhere in this world, there's a man that picked Denver to start the season 6-2. I'd like to have him managing my stock portfolio.



• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:
  
  

  Washington at Atlanta - "Hard to see a scenario in which the Redskins manage to lug all of their baggage into Atlanta and come out with a win, or even a close loss."
  
  Arizona at Chicago - "The Bears are a fraud team. The Cardinals are a satyr team - half man, half goat. The goat half got embarrassed by the Panthers last week, the man half shows up in Chicago."




• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):
  
  

  Green Bay at Tampa Bay - "The Packers are now 0-2 against the Vikings coming off the ignominy of their former start beating them on their own field. This week, they lick their wounds and the Buccaneers at the same time."
  
  Baltimore at Cincinnati - "The Ravens have already lost, at home, to the Bengals. So they're going to go on the road and beat them in Cincinnati? Yup, that's what's going to happen."




• For the week:
  Winners: 7-6
  ATS: 4-9-0



• For the season:
  Winners: 81-48
  ATS: 64-65-0

NFL picks, Week 9

Picks for week 9 of the 2009 NFL season...

Washington at Atlanta (-10.5) - Hard to see a scenario in which the Redskins manage to lug all of their baggage into Atlanta and come out with a win, or even a close loss.

Green Bay (-10) at Tampa Bay - The Packers are now 0-2 against the Vikings coming off the ignominy of their former start beating them on their own field. This week, they lick their wounds and the Buccaneers at the same time.

Miami at New England (-10.5) - People keep telling me that I should be respecting of the Dolphins, concerned about them. I decline.

Kansas City (+6.5) at Jacksonville - I'm still buying Pioli and Cassell. And we're talking about a Jaguars team that just got smoked by the Titans.

Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5) - The 7-0 start notwithstanding, there are some problems in Indianapolis. Including several significant injury issues. The Texans could make a statement by going in to Indianapolis and winning, and truth be told, it's not out of the question. I don't see it happening.

Baltimore (-2) at Cincinnati - The Ravens have already lost, at home, to the Bengals. So they're going to go on the road and beat them in Cincinnati? Yup, that's what's going to happen.

Arizona (+3) at Chicago - The Bears are a fraud team. The Cardinals are a satyr team - half man, half goat. The goat half got embarrassed by the Panthers last week, the man half shows up in Chicago.

Carolina at New Orleans (-14) - Bask in the glow of your triumphant visit to Arizona, Panthers. Bask in the glow...

Detroit (+10) at Seattle - I must really be unimpressed by the Seahawks to be picking the Lions to keep it close and lose by single-digits. Yes, yes I am.

San Diego at N.Y. Giants (-5) - Flippin' a coin. Drawing cards. Examining the entrails of chickens. Tarot. Tea leaves. They all got nuthin', and so do I. Because a month ago, it would have been hard to imagine the Giants losing four straight, I'll take New York. Is that a terrible, illogical, irrational, no good, very bad reason to pick a team? Ayuh...

Tennessee at San Francisco (-4) - Congratulations, Vince Young - that's one in a row. But the next Titan win may be just as long in coming as the last one.

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3) - These two teams could, I think, do anything. I have no confidence in either QB, either defense, either running game, either special teams. No confidence in anything associated with this game. Except one thing. I'm confident that the Eagle fans will be unpleasant on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver - Sometimes, a team just needs to learn how to win. This Bronco team just needed to learn how to lose. They're going to get reminders on occasion during the rest of the season.

NFL Week 8 wrapup

Week 8 in the NFL...

• OK, I saw some of the Packers-Vikings game. I didn't want to, but I wanted to watch football, and my only two choices were that or the Red Zone channel. Obviously, I left it on the Red Zone channel, but I saw plenty of the game anyway. I did, however, avoid ALL of the pre-game, halftime and post-game stuff.



• As I've said before, it doesn't bother me that he comes out of retirement. It bothers me that he keeps going through the charade of retiring, which is unfair to everyone around him. And I'm convinced that he does it for the media attention, and the media, obviously, are like pushers feeding a junkie's habit.



• On the plus side, ESPN has driven me away, so I'm watching a LOT less SportsCenter...



• Note to NBC executives: The presence of Keith Olbermann drives many who would be interested in Football Night in America away from that program. Some of us don't make it back for the game. Whatever your ratings are, it is difficult for me to imagine that they wouldn't be higher without him.



• There's a lot of "wow, Ted Ginn really showed the critics" analysis this week. Which is, of course, nonsense. No one's ever disputed his speed or his ability as a kick-off returner. He's still a lousy receiver who was taken way, way too soon in the draft. That said, he almost single-handedly won that game for the Dolphins on Sunday.



• What's going on with the Giants? It pains me to see them struggling so. Not.



• It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the Broncos now that their armor's been pierced. Did the Ravens show something that people can use? Or was it just one of those games?



• Obvious pick: Oakland at San Diego



• Obvious Pick which was dead wrong: Carolina at Arizona



• Somewhere in this world, there's a man that picked Denver to start the season 6-1. I'd like to have him managing my stock portfolio.



• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:
  
  

  Denver at Baltimore - "The streak has to come to an end at some point, and this seems as likely a point as any. The Broncos have played well, but they've also been a beneficiary of some good bounces, some opponents who haven't played well and there not being much scouting film, what with the new players and coaches. They're better than I expected going in, but they're really a 6-0 quality team, and they won't go into Baltimore and beat the Ravens."
  
  San Francisco at Indianapolis - "The Colts go to 7-0, but it's a close game and they win by 10 or less."




• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):
  
  

  Carolina at Arizona - "Like Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme frequently puts up "video game" numbers. As scored by someone who doesn't know how to play the video game, against someone who does."
  
  Cleveland at Chicago - "Too many points for a mediocre Bears team to cover anywhere against anyone."




• For the week:
  Winners: 8-5
  ATS: 5-8-0



• For the season:
  Winners: 74-42
  ATS: 60-56-0

NFL picks, Week 8

Picks for week 8 of the 2009 NFL season...

Denver at Baltimore (-3.5) - The streak has to come to an end at some point, and this seems as likely a point as any. The Broncos have played well, but they've also been a beneficiary of some good bounces, some opponents who haven't played well and there not being much scouting film, what with the new players and coaches. They're better than I expected going in, but they're really a 6-0 quality team, and they won't go into Baltimore and beat the Ravens.

St. Louis at Detroit (-4) - This is one of the few winnable games on the St. Louis schedule. I don't think that they'll win it.

Seattle (+9.5) at Dallas - I'm not a fan of either of these teams. I hate picking Seattle on the road, I hate picking Dallas to cover more than a field goal. So I'm going with the Seahawks to lose by less than 10.

Cleveland (+13) at Chicago - Too many points for a mediocre Bears team to cover anywhere against anyone.

Houston at Buffalo (+3.5) - Eeny-meeny-miny-mo. We start the season with no information. After a couple of weeks, we think we know something. By now, however, we've got too much information, which is too contradictory. Which Buffalo team is this, the one that won in NY against the Jets or the one that lost at home to Cleveland? Is this the Houston team which lost to the Jaguars and Jets or that beat the Bengals and 49ers? Houston's probably a better team, if each team brings its "A" game, but you can't count on either of them to do so. So I'm crossing my fingers and going with the home team to win, but with no particular expectation of success.

Miami (+3) at N.Y. Jets - So the Dolphins just beat the Jets in Miami three weeks ago - the Jets are a good bet to return the favor at home. Right? So it would seem. I'm going with the Dolphins anyway.

San Francisco (+12.5) at Indianapolis - The Colts go to 7-0, but it's a close game and they win by 10 or less.

N.Y. Giants (+0) at Philadelphia - I look at everything involved, and keep coming back to one fact: the Eagles lost to the Raiders. How can you take them seriously?

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3) - I made this pick thinking that this is the week that the Titans miseries end. They had an extra week to lick their wounds after being humiliated in New England, Jeff Fisher's a good coach, they're hosting a weak Jaguars team - this is the week for win number 1. Then I heard that the owner has decreed that Vince "Jamarcus Junior" Young has to start. I understand his feelings, and from a business standpoint, the season's effectively over and they need to know whether VY can play. But it doesn't help them this week. I'm leaving this pick, but I'm a lot less happy with it than I was a couple of days ago.

Oakland (+17) at San Diego - Too many points. Yeah, it's the Raiders, and I expect to lose this, but it's just too many points.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3) - I. Do. Not. Care. About. The. Return. Of. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named. To. Green. Bay. Go, Packers! Crush the Vikings! Do it on some channel that I'M NOT WATCHING!

Carolina at Arizona (-10) - Like Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme frequently puts up "video game" numbers. As scored by someone who doesn't know how to play the video game, against someone who does.

Atlanta (+10) at New Orleans - New Orleans wins this, I think. Heck, maybe they even cover, but I think Atlanta's too good to pick them to lose by double-digits.

NFL picks, Week 7

Sorry that this is so late. I know that there are literally¹ thousands² of you waiting on me for recommendations on where to place your hard-earned shekels, and I'm sorry for any missed bookie deadlines. I'll try not to let it happen again.



Picks for week 7 of the 2009 NFL season...

New England (-15) at Tampa Bay - The Patriots are scoring 27 points per game, the Buccaneers are allowing 28. The Buccaneers are scoring 15 points per game, the Patriots are allowing 15. Seems that it would be pretty easy to pick a 28-15 final score. Except that the Buccaneers are a worse team than most (though not all) that the Patriots have played, and the Patriots are a better team than most (though not all) that the Buccaneers have played. It's concievable that this ends up being only a two-touchdown game, but I don't see any reason to expect it to be only a two-touchdown game. 35-10, or even worse, wouldn't surprise me at all.

Indianapolis (-13) at St. Louis - Seriously, what's the point? Who benefits from this game being played? Will the revenues taken in by the Rams on Sunday be enough to offset the loss of future revenues caused by people seeing the difference between a good NFL team and, well, the Rams?

Minnesota at Pittsburgh (-5.5) - I'd say that this was one of the contenders for game of the week, but I don't see another one. Maybe Arizona and the Giants. The home field is an advantage for the Steelers. So is the calendar, as he-who-must-not-be-named starts the yearly wear-down. The Vikings lost last week, except for a missed field goal. They've been life and death a couple of times, requiring a last-second missed field goal in one game and a miracle Hail Mary in another, both at home, to enter week 7 undefeated. This is the week the winning streak ends.

San Diego at Kansas City (+4.5) - I picked Kansas City because...they, um, have a good...well, the Chargers are missing...the match-up issues involved in the secondary... I have no idea why I picked the Chiefs. I suspect that it was a mistake. So I should change it. But I'm not. And again, I've no idea why. Sometimes, my subconscious stupidity gets very insistent.

San Francisco (+3) at Houston - I suspect that the San Francisco players are very concerned about the possibility of getting on a plane with Coach Singletary if they lose this one. Under the "the most desperate team wins" rule, I'm going with the 49ers here.

Green Bay (-7.5) at Cleveland - The Browns will win a couple more before it's all said and done. This won't be one of them.

Buffalo at Carolina (-7) - The Panthers aren't very good - can the Bills make it two in a row? No. But they'll lose close, by a field goal or so.

N.Y. Jets at Oakland (+5.5)- A fascinating game. The Raiders are on a, for them, huge roll, having won their last one game in a row. The Jets are struggling, as the magical mystery tour has hit a few speed bumps. As bad as the Raiders are, the Jets without Kris Jenkins and with Mark Sanchez are very hard to pick, particularly on the road. Heck, they just lost to Buffalo at home. In a last minute switch, I'm going to take the Raiders, with their head coach not going to be facing criminal charges, who just beat the Eagles, who were embarassed by a New York team two weeks ago, to actually get to two straight wins by beating the suddenly hapless Jets.

Chicago at Cincinnati (-1) - There are always a few notes that I write which I couldn't have imagined writing two months earlier. Notes such as, "hey, the Bengals are at home, and frankly, they're just a better team than the Bears."

Atlanta (+3.5) at Dallas - The traditional late-season, post-season meltdown has come early in Dallas this year. Fortunately for all involved, the Redskins are going to prevent them from being the biggest disappointment/embarassment in the NFC East.

New Orleans (-6.5) at Miami - Only if the Saints have a big letdown can I see them winning by less than a touchdown in Miami.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants (-7) - There's no doubt that the Giants are surly and embarassed after last week's butt-kicking at the hands of Drew Brees and the Saints. Arizona is very talented in many spots, but not trustworthy when traveling, and hard to pick in a situation like this.

Philadelphia (-7) at Washington - So the powers-that-be have neutered their head coach, and bypassed the entire offensive staff, in handing over play calling responsibilities to a guy that's been retired for the last five years until just a couple of weeks ago. Yeah, there's no way that could go wrong...


¹ - That is to say, figuratively, in my imagination.

² - Thousands being a euphemism for "no actual persons."

NFL Week 6 wrapup

Week 6 in the NFL...

• There are a lot of NFL quarterbacks who will never have a game as good as Tom Brady's second quarter on Sunday. The Patriots led 10-0 after one, then Brady went 17-of-21 for 252 yards and five touchdowns in the second, leading to a 45-0 haftime lead.



• In the interest of full disclosure, since so many people are so deeply invested in these picks, I should pass along the following tidbit. While riding home through the New England rain and wind on Sunday after church, I heard the crew on WEEI's Sunday Morning Football Show all picking the Patriots to win comfortably. And I looked at the weather and thought, "the weather's a great equalizer, it's going to be hard to throw the ball, it's going to be hard for the Patriots to stop Chris Johnson, this could be a close game." I was going to write it up and post it, so convinced was I of the soundness of my acumen. Obviously, I should be keeping this to myself here, but honesty compels me to share it...



• Stat of the week:
  Rushing Yards
  

  New England 193, Tennessee 193
  New England 426, Tennessee -7




• Note to NBC executives: The presence of Keith Olbermann drives many who would be interested in Football Night in America away from that program. Some of us don't make it back for the game. Whatever your ratings are, it is difficult for me to imagine that they wouldn't be higher without him.



• Obvious pick: New England over Tennessee



• Obvious Pick which was dead wrong: Philadelphia over Oakland, NY Jets over Buffalo



• Shocking score of the week: Oakland 13, Philadelphia 9



• Somewhere in this world, there's a man that picked Denver to start the season 6-0. I'd like to have him managing my stock portfolio.



• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:
  
  

  Tennessee at New England - "One of these weeks, the Titans are going to win a game. It won't be this week. The Patriots played a pretty good first half last week, and I suspect that, at home, this is going to start to look like the team they are capable of being."
  
  Denver at San Diego - "If picking this before the season started, the pick would obviously have been San Diego. But based on what the two teams have done so far, I don't know how you don't take the Broncos. I do know this - if the Chargers are going to win the West, they're going to have to win this game."




• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):
  
  

  Philadelphia at Oakland - "Are the Raiders capable of scoring on a non-fluke play? Actually driving down the field and scoring? "
  
  Buffalo at NY Jets - "A couple of weeks in, the Bills looked like a real NFL team. Following the back-to-back losses to winless Miami and Cleveland, that's no longer the case."




• For the week:
  Winners: 9-5
  ATS: 7-7-0



• For the season:
  Winners: 59-31
  ATS: 47-43-0

NFL picks, Week 6

Picks for week 6 of the 2009 NFL season...


Houston at Cincinnati (-5) - With wins at Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Bengals have won my (hypothetical) money this week. It would surprise me not even a little for them to melt ignominiously, but they're clearly a better team than Houston.

St. Louis at Jacksonville (-9.5) - The fact that Jacksonville is a 9 1/2 point favorite AND I'm picking them anyway tells you all that you need to know about St. Louis.

Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh - Not that I think the Browns are going into Pittsburgh and winning, but the Steelers haven't demonstrated enough to be two touchdown favorites over anyone.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-3) - Clearly, these are two of the best three teams in the NFC. I don't have a good feel for the relative differences between the two, and so I'm going with the Saints at home because they're at home, and because I hate the Giants.

Baltimore at Minnesota (-3) - Is there still a gap between the conferences? Are the AFC elite still better than the NFC elite? This is the first real test of that this year.

Detroit (+13.5) at Green Bay - Too many points for the overrated Packers against the improving Lions.

Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay - As bad as I think the Panthers are, I think the Buccaneers are enough worse to lose by a touchdown at home.

Kansas City at Washington (-6.5) - KC is going to win some games before it's all said and done. I would be totally un-shocked if this were the first. But I don't think it's a great bet.

Philadelphia (-14) at Oakland - Are the Raiders capable of scoring on a non-fluke play? Actually driving down the field and scoring?

Arizona (+3) at Seattle - Not a Seahawk believer. I don't have great confidence in this one, but I'm not a Seahawk believer.

Tennessee at New England (-9.5) - One of these weeks, the Titans are going to win a game. It won't be this week. The Patriots played a pretty good first half last week, and I suspect that, at home, this is going to start to look like the team they are capable of being.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-10) - A couple of weeks in, the Bills looked like a real NFL team. Following the back-to-back losses to winless Miami and Cleveland, that's no longer the case.

Chicago at Atlanta (-3.5) - Am I letting last week's drubbing of San Francisco excessively impact my opinion of the Falcons? Probably. But I haven't been a big Bears guy, and don't see any particular reason to pick them.

Denver (+3.5) at San Diego - If picking this before the season started, the pick would obviously have been San Diego. But based on what the two teams have done so far, I don't know how you don't take the Broncos. I do know this - if the Chargers are going to win the West, they're going to have to win this game.

NFL Week 5 wrapup

Week 5 in the NFL...

• When the Patriots took the 17-7 lead into the half at Denver, getting the ball to start the second half, I was confident that they'd win. They played about as poorly in the second half, both offensively and defensively, as I ever expect to see them play. And they missed a field goal which would have provided the winning margin in regulation, negating the need to lose the coin toss in overtime. But they didn't run the ball well, they didn't throw the ball well, Brady's still missing receivers, the defense gave up two enormous drives where they just couldn't get off the field, they missed a field goal - it was a disaster. The Broncos are obviously better than I'd given them credit for being, but I still believe the Patriots are the better team - they just didn't play that way on Sunday.



• I don't imagine that Coach Singletary was particularly jolly during the 49ers film session on Monday.



• Is there any reason - any reason whatsoever - to think that Jamarcus Russell is ever going to be a mediocre (never mind good) NFL quarterback?



• Note to NBC executives: The presence of Keith Olbermann drives many who would be interested in Football Night in America away from that program. Some of us don't make it back for the game. Whatever your ratings are, it is difficult for me to imagine that they wouldn't be higher without him.



• Obvious pick: Giants over Oakland, Philadelphia over Tampa Bay



• Obvious Pick which was dead wrong: Baltimore over Cincinnati



• Shocking score of the week: Atlanta 45, San Francisco 10



• Teams we need to reconsider, based on what happened this week: Denver. Baltimore. Cincinnati. NY Jets. Miami. New England.
  
  
• Somewhere in this world, there's a man that picked Denver to start the season 5-0. I'd like to have him managing my stock portfolio.



• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and the pickin's are slim this week):
  
  

  Indianapolis at Tennessee - "The question - the ONLY question - about this game is, "why is the spread just 4?""
  
  Minnesota at St. Louis - "Last week the Rams played the 49ers. This week, they're playing the Vikings. Frankly, I see no reason to use a different comment for this game than I used for that one. To wit: "We used to think it impossible for a team to go 0-16. Now we wonder whether it is possible for it to happen two years in a row.""




• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite [and it was a bad week]):
  
  

  Oakland at NY Giants - "Obviously the Giants win this. But does Eli play? Do they take it easy? Do the Raiders pretend to be a good team for a half? Does Oakland make up a touchdown in the fourth quarter while the Giants try to run out the clock? 17 is just too many points to give."
  
  New England at Denver - "I ought to have more to say about this than I do, but I don't. The Broncos are 4-0, largely on the strength of their schedule. I believe that the Patriots are a better team in pretty much every aspect of the game, and I think that they'll win comfortably."




• For the week:
  Winners: 8-6
  ATS: 5-9-0



• For the season:
  Winners: 50-26
  ATS: 40-36-0

NFL picks, Week 5

Picks for week 5 of the 2009 NFL season...

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-9) - Obviously, the Bengals have been competitive thus far, and it wouldn't be shocking if they were competitive this week. 9 seems like a lot, but I generally go with the team that's going to win the game, and that's Baltimore.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-6) - If both of these teams play the way they did last week, the Browns might win. But I don't think Cleveland's as good, or Buffalo as bad, as they played last week.

Washington (+4) at Carolina - Washington has shown nothing thus far, and there's no good reason for me to pick them. Which I'm not. I'm picking against the Panthers.

Pittsburgh (-10) at Detroit - Yes, the Lions are progressing. Yes, they'll win another game this season. No, it won't be this week.

Dallas at Kansas City (+9) - The Cowboys December collapse has started early this year. They probably win this, anyway, and go back to Texas with their chests puffed out, confident that they've figured it out.

Oakland (+17) at N.Y. Giants - Obviously the Giants win this. But does Eli play? Do they take it easy? Do the Raiders pretend to be a good team for a half? Does Oakland make up a touchdown in the fourth quarter while the Giants try to run out the clock? 17 is just too many points to give.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-16) - "So," I hear you cry, "17 is too many, but 16 isn't?" Hey, a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds. (Not original, that - cribbed it from some lad named Emerson. But, as Diane said to Sam, "you remembered it, and used it in context.")

Minnesota (-10) at St. Louis - Last week the Rams played the 49ers. This week, they're playing the Vikings. Frankly, I see no reason to use a different comment for this game than I used for that one. To wit: "We used to think it impossible for a team to go 0-16. Now we wonder whether it is possible for it to happen two years in a row."

Atlanta at San Francisco (-2.5) - Just about a year ago, I wrote that "Mike Singletary is going to wake things up in San Francisco. Whether that intensity level is going to work as a head coach is another question entirely." Well, we know the short-term answer...

Houston at Arizona (-5.5) - Arizona may have expected to easily win the NFC West again, but if it does win, it won't be easy. This one game, on the other hand, will probably go pretty smoothly.

New England (-3.5) at Denver - I ought to have more to say about this than I do, but I don't. The Broncos are 4-0, largely on the strength of their schedule. I believe that the Patriots are a better team in pretty much every aspect of the game, and I think that they'll win comfortably.

Jacksonville at Seattle (-3) - This should be scintillating. Showing tapes of this game to prisoners has been pre-emptively banned by the Geneva convention and the laws of 49 states. ("Just 49?" "Yes. You don't want to get arrested for armed robbery in Texas...")

Indianapolis (-4) at Tennessee - The question - the ONLY question - about this game is, "why is the spread just 4?"

N.Y. Jets (-1) at Miami - The Dolphins looked better - a lot better - than the Jets last week. That won't be the case this week.

Week 4 in the NFL...

• The Patriots played well on Sunday. They weren't perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but they were pretty good. And while it's true that Mark Clayton's dropped helped seal the game, it's also true that without the Ravens recovering a fumble in the end-zone, it's a two-score game at that point. The defense is not yet as good as it is going to get, but I remain confident that it's going to be a very good defense when it's all said and done. And the offense is going to get everything put together and be very scary again.



• I am amazed by the amount of attention given to the roughing the passer calls in the New England-Baltimore game. Well, some of the roughing the passer calls. The Mike Wright roughing call, which was essentially the same as the Ngata penalty, doesn't seem to get mentioned. I didn't think that any of them were controversial or debatable under the rules of the game. Particularly the Suggs contact at Brady's knees - the fact that he only "brushed" against Brady's knees is due to the fact that Brady was aware enough to jump backwards. Had his feet been planted when Suggs arrived, they may well have carried him off the field.



• The Ravens need to learn how to lose to the Patriots without whining about the officiating.



• Note to NBC executives: The presence of Keith Olbermann drives many who would be interested in Football Night in America away from that program. Some of us don't make it back for the game. Whatever your ratings are, it is difficult for me to imagine that they wouldn't be higher without him.



• I saw the Rodney Harrison comments Sunday night. I cannot believe the amount of coverage that was expended on them yesterday. He was obviously joking about Brady, and both he and Brady said so first thing in the morning and people kept talking about them anyway.



• The Monday Night game was every bit as unwatchable as I feared it would be. I turned it on for about one minute, heard paeans of praise sung to Favre which would have been more appropriate if aimed at Mother Theresa, and turned it back off. Insufferable is an understatement.



• Obvious pick: Giants over Kansas City, 49ers over Rams



• Obvious Pick which was dead wrong: Tennessee over Jacksonville



• Somewhere in this world, there's a man that picked Denver to start the season 4-0. I'd like to have him managing my stock portfolio.



• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:
  
  

  Seattle at Indianapolis - "I don't know who's playing QB for the Seahawks. I don't care who's playing QB for the Seahawks. This one's not competitive."
  
  Baltimore at New England - "The Ravens have looked like a dominant team thus far, outscoring their opposition by 50 points in three games. This is mitigated somewhat by the opposition, as the Chiefs and Browns are two of them teams that look to be in the running for the first overall draft pick next year. The win in San Diego is a good win, but based on the Chargers have done otherwise, it doesn't look like a great win. The Patriots have been a little bit rusty, the offense has had big trouble in the red zone, but they've moved the ball and dominated time-of-possession thus far. The defense isn't what it's going to be, but it's been OK. This should be a very good game. I could certainly see New England losing this. If the defense gives up a couple of big plays and the offense fails to get into the end zone, they could be playing from behind, and that's a tough situation against a good team. On the whole, I think that they're getting better, and I think that, playing at home, they take this one."
  
  St. Louis at San Francisco - "We used to think it impossible for a team to go 0-16. Now we wonder whether it is possible for it to happen two years in a row."




• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):
  
  

  Buffalo at Miami - "This gives me pause, but I was already down on Miami, and with Pennington done, I really believe that Buffalo is the better team right now."
  
  Tennessee at Jacksonville - "I could never figure out how Tennessee got to 10-0 or 13-3 last year, and their 0-3 start doesn't really surprise me, but they're better than the Jaguars."




• For the week:
  Winners: 10-4
  ATS: 9-5-0



• For the season:
  Winners: 42-20
  ATS: 35-27-0

NFL picks, Week 4

Picks for week 4 of the 2009 NFL season...

Detroit (+10) at Chicago - Yes, I really did pick the Lions last week. No, I don't really think that they're going to follow that win by going in to Chicago and beating the Bears. But I think that they'll lose competitively.

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+6) - I have to pick one of these teams? Ugh. Going with the desperate home Browns. ("What's that?" I hear you cry. "Didn't the Bengals beat the Steelers just last week?" Yes. They did. Do you want to bet on the Bengals playing well two weeks in a row?)

Oakland at Houston (-9.5) - 9 1/2 is an awful lot for Houston to be giving. But one of the fundamental rules for betting the NFL for the past few years is "always bet against Oakland." It's a wise rule.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville - I could never figure out how Tennessee got to 10-0 or 13-3 last year, and their 0-3 start doesn't really surprise me, but they're better than the Jaguars.

N.Y. Giants (-9) at Kansas City - If this were Sabathia vs. Greinke, the Royals would have a chance.

Baltimore at New England (-2) - The Ravens have looked like a dominant team thus far, outscoring their opposition by 50 points in three games. This is mitigated somewhat by the opposition, as the Chiefs and Browns are two of them teams that look to be in the running for the first overall draft pick next year. The win in San Diego is a good win, but based on the Chargers have done otherwise, it doesn't look like a great win. The Patriots have been a little bit rusty, the offense has had big trouble in the red zone, but they've moved the ball and dominated time-of-possession thus far. The defense isn't what it's going to be, but it's been OK. This should be a very good game. I could certainly see New England losing this. If the defense gives up a couple of big plays and the offense fails to get into the end zone, they could be playing from behind, and that's a tough situation against a good team. On the whole, I think that they're getting better, and I think that, playing at home, they take this one.

Tampa Bay at Washington (-7) - No, the Redskins aren't good, but the Buccaneers are a very bad team, and if Washington loses this one, Jim Zorn is likely to be unemployed on Sunday night.

Seattle at Indianapolis (-10) - I don't know who's playing QB for the Seahawks. I don't care who's playing QB for the Seahawks. This one's not competitive.

Buffalo (-2) at Miami - This gives me pause, but I was already down on Miami, and with Pennington done, I really believe that Buffalo is the better team right now.

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans (-7) - The Jets have played over their heads so far. The Patriots weren't ready to handle the Jets defense the way they will be when next they meet, but the Saints are.

Dallas (-3) at Denver - Yes, the Broncos are 3-0. Possibly the flukiest, luckiest 3-0 in NFL history. They won't get to the luckiest 4-0 in NFL history, because they're either going to lose this week, or demonstrate that they haven't been quite as lucky as I think. I'm going with the former.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-10) - We used to think it impossible for a team to go 0-16. Now we wonder whether it is possible for it to happen two years in a row.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6.5) - Three weeks in, the re-evaluation process started. Before the season started, this looked like a clash of the Titans, an early season meeting between two AFC powerhouses. But when it's over, we're either going to have two 2-2 teams, or a 3-1 Chargers team and a 1-3 Steelers team. Neither of them has looked as good as I expected them to. The Steelers look to have problems, with or without Polamalu, but at home, against a San Diego team that has looked anything but dominant, I expect them to win by a TD.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-3.5) - I don't like either of these teams, but obviously I'm rooting for Green Bay. I won't be watching, of course, because anything involving Brett Favre (and as I type this, he's on ESPN, lying about this being just another game, and according to the scroll, the next four stories are going to be about him as well, which I won't see because I'm changing the channel) is unwatchable¹ , but I'm rooting - very hard - for the Packers. I just don't think that they're going to win.



¹ - Not because of Favre, but because of the announcers' coverage of Favre. There will actually be more than one player on the field on Monday night, but the coverage won't reveal that...

NFL Week 3 wrapup

Week 3 in the NFL...

• The Patriots are not clicking yet, but they beat a pretty good Atlanta team by 16. They allowed the Falcons only 19 plays and less than 7 minutes of possession time in the second half. They've been extremely inefficient in the red zone, settling for field goals far too often. And certainly the defense has done nothing to create a feeling of dominance. But they've had massive time-of-possession advantages in two of their three games, and a small one in the third. I maintain my optimism for what they're going to be when it's all said and done, and my uncertainty as to when they're really going to present.



• Congratulations to the Detroit Lions. It was a long, long time coming. Here's a prediction - the next one will come a lot quicker than this one did.



• Note to NBC executives: The presence of Keith Olbermann drives many who would be interested in Football Night in America away from that program. Some of us don't make it back for the game. Whatever your ratings are, it is difficult for me to imagine that they wouldn't be higher without him.



• In trouble:
  
  • Miami, 0-3. Their reign at the top of the AFC East was a short one.
  • Tennessee, 0-3. They lost three games out of 16 last year, matched that in 3 games this year. Already three games behind the Colts.
  • Washington, 1-2. They're already two games out in a division with three better teams, and there probably isn't a coach in football with a hotter seat than Jim Zorn's after they became the first team to fall to the Lions in nearly two calendar years.



• Should have been in trouble: Denver. OK, their schedule has been, well, "weak" (to be charitable) thus far, but 3-0 is 3-0. 3-13 wouldn't have shocked me from this Bronco team. One suspects that Josh McDaniel has bought himself some credibility in that lockerroom.



• I proclaimed the Ravens "scary" last week after their win in San Diego. I may rescind that. Yes, they've won three, two of them easily. But the Browns may be the worst team in football, and the Chiefs aren't much better. With the way that the Chargers have struggled against Oakland and Miami, that Baltimore win in week 2 may not have been what it looked like at the time.



• Obvious pick: Giants over Tampa Bay, Packers over Rams



• Obvious Pick which was dead wrong: Pittburgh over Cincinnati



• Somewhere in this world, there's a man that picked Denver to start the season 3-0. I'd like to have him managing my stock portfolio.



• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and there's LOTS of it this week):
  
  

  Washington at Detroit - "This is it. The week that the Lions break the streak, upsetting the favored but inconsistent Redskins."
  
  NY Giants at Tampa Bay - "Yeah, whatever. I hate the Giants. I hated them long before 2007, but that certainly didn't help. Hate 'em or not, they're an order of magnitude better than the Buccaneers right now. This one is not competitive."
  
  San Francisco at Minnesota - "If Minnesota is what the consensus suggests they are, then I'm wrong here. Even if I'm right about the Vikings, it's asking a lot of the 49ers to go into the Metrodome and win. I suspect that they aren't quite good enough to do that. But I expect them to be in every game, to be tough and disciplined and hard to beat. So the Viking escape with this one by a field goal."
  
  Cleveland at Baltimore - "OK, the Ravens are officially scary. (So are the Browns, but pretty much only for Cleveland fans.)"




• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):
  
  

  Jacksonville at Houston - "The cards and letters continue to pour in from the Jaguar faithful1 that I'm underrating them. Here's your chance, Jaguars - I've called you bullies, weaklings, a faux NFL team (and it's only week 3!) - go ahead and prove me wrong."
  
  Tennessee at NY Jets - "The Jets, pretty full of themselves after almost living up to their week of lip-flapping by beating the Patriots (who played about as badly as they can, certainly worse than they will the next two times they meet), run into a Tennessee team that's already desperate and looking for a little revenge on last year's loss to NY. And the Titans get that revenge."




• For the week:
  Winners: 12-4
  ATS: 12-4-0



• For the season:
  Winners: 32-16
  ATS: 26-22-0

NFL picks, Week 3

Picks for week 3 of the 2009 NFL season...


Green Bay (-7) at St. Louis - I thought, going in, that the Packers were overrated. I did not think that they could lose to the Bengals at home. If they could do that, could they lose to the Rams in St. Louis? I guess it's conceivable, but it sure doesn't seem like the kind of bet that's going to make you money.

Kansas City at Philadelphia (-7) - Is there anyone that could start at quarterback for the Eagles behind whom they would not beat the Chiefs by a touchdown?

Atlanta at New England (-4) - The Falcons are a pretty good team. The Patriots are showing the effects of rust, primarily because their All-Time great QB has played 7 minutes of football in 19 months. The offense is going to get it together, but it may not be this week. The defense is going to grow and synch up and get on the same page and end up being pretty good, but it probably won't be this week. I'm not picking the Falcons, because I just don't ever pick against the Patriots - there's no satisfaction in that for me whatsoever, and I won't do it. And I'm not saying that I'm picking the Patriots despite the fact that I think the Falcons will win, because I don't think the Falcons will win. I think that the Patriots defense will play well enough, and the Patriots offense will play well enough to outscore Atlanta and win the game. It's not inconceivable that I'm wrong, but that's what, as near as I can tell, I truly believe.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-13) - OK, the Ravens are officially scary. (So are the Browns, but pretty much only for Cleveland fans.)

Washington at Detroit (+6) - This is it. The week that the Lions break the streak, upsetting the favored but inconsistent Redskins. Do I really believe this? OK, I'm not sure about that. But they'll do it one of these weeks, and I will have picked them.

Jacksonville at Houston (-3.5) - The cards and letters continue to pour in from the Jaguar faithful¹ that I'm underrating them. Here's your chance, Jaguars - I've called you bullies, weaklings, a faux NFL team (and it's only week 3!) - go ahead and prove me wrong.

San Francisco (+7) at Minnesota - If Minnesota is what the consensus suggests they are, then I'm wrong here. Even if I'm right about the Vikings, it's asking a lot of the 49ers to go into the Metrodome and win. I suspect that they aren't quite good enough to do that. But I expect them to be in every game, to be tough and disciplined and hard to beat. So the Viking escape with this one by a field goal.

N.Y. Giants (-7) at Tampa Bay - Yeah, whatever. I hate the Giants. I hated them long before 2007, but that certainly didn't help. Hate 'em or not, they're an order of magnitude better than the Buccaneers right now. This one is not competitive.

Tennessee (+3) at N.Y. Jets - The Jets, pretty full of themselves after almost living up to their week of lip-flapping by beating the Patriots (who played about as badly as they can, certainly worse than they will the next two times they meet), run into a Tennessee team that's already desperate and looking for a little revenge on last year's loss to NY. And the Titans get that revenge.

Chicago (-2.5) at Seattle - As we go through this little exercise every week, you may notice that I'm a lot firmer about my opinions of teams that are lacking or overrated than the converse. And here's another example, as I'm not picking based on the Bears being better than the Seahawks, but on the Seahawks being worse than the Bears.

New Orleans (-6) at Buffalo - I'm undecided, at this point, on the Bills. But I'm not undecided about the Saints. They're going to win for a while, until they run up against a great offensive team. And Buffalo's not it.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cincinnati - If the Bengals play their best game, and the Steelers play their worst, I could see a Cincinnati win. But, as I assume that neither of those conditions will be true, I assume that the Steelers win comfortably.

Denver at Oakland (+2) - Yes, Oakland stinks. But here's the fundamental question driving this pick - is it rational to supposed that the Denver Broncos start the season 3-0? Having asked that, and answered, "No," I have no choice but to take the Raiders.

Miami at San Diego (-6) - It was a long way from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and the playoffs in 2008. I don't think that the Dolphins are going back to 1 win, but I'm pretty sure that they're not going back to the playoffs.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Arizona - This could go either way. Which Cardinals team shows up? If the Colts defense couldn't get the Dolphins off the field on Monday night, what are they going to do with Arizona's? Whatever the case, my mental conception of the league is still such that the Colts are a powerhouse, the Cardinals aren't, and the very good AFC team beats the good NFC pretty much every week.

Carolina at Dallas (-8.5) - I don't know why this isn't 18.5. It's really hard for me to imagine that this game is going to be competitive.



¹ - Well, they might, if any Jaguar faithful actually read any of my postings and cared.

NFL Week 2 wrapup

Week 2 in the NFL...

• Tom Brady looked rusty in week 1 against the Bills. He looked worse in week 2 against the Jets. Obviously, some of that credit goes to New York. I'm not ready, however, to give them as much credit as they're getting. I honestly believe that Sunday was far more about the Patriots offense not being in synch yet than it was about the Jets just shutting them down. The offense will come back together - there's too much talent not to. But it may take a month or a month and a half until Brady's right. Lets remember that, before last week's game, he'd play 7 minutes of football in 19 months. And the defense is going to improve as the year goes on as well. The start has been a little shakier than I expected, and it may last for a while. But this is going to be a very good or great team come playoff time, and no one's going to want them in the post-season. Including the NY Jets.



• Note to NBC executives: The presence of Keith Olbermann drives many who would be interested in Football Night in America away from that program. Some of us don't make it back for the game. Whatever your ratings are, it is difficult for me to imagine that they wouldn't be higher without him.



• As I dislike both the Giants and Cowboys, there was really nothing I wanted to see in that game. And I didn't. So I have nothing to say about what was probably the biggest game of the weekend, because I didn't see a single snap. If I were getting paid for this gig, I'd have had to watch it. But I'm not, and I didn't.



• The Stat of the week comes from the Monday Night game. Indianapolis scored 27 points despite running only 35 plays over 14:53 of possession time.



• Obvious pick: New Orleans blowing out Philadelphia.



• Obvious Pick which was dead wrong: Tennessee over Houston.



• Somewhere in this world, there's a man that picked Denver to start the season 2-0. I'd like to have him managing my stock portfolio.



• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:
  
  

  New Orleans at Philadelphia - "Don't know how good New Orleans defense is. But I know that the McNabb and Vick-less Eagles aren't going to score enough to match the Saints."
  
  Arizona at Jacksonville - "The Cardinals are the epitome of the talented but inconsistent team, a team capable of getting blown out by a non-playoff team and starting a run to the Super Bowl two weeks later. Jacksonville is a faux NFL team, a bully team that isn't anywhere near as tough, physical, smart or effective as it thinks it is, or is reputed to be. Could the Jaguars win this at home? Sure. And they could win big, as the Cardinals can go way, way South when they go. But I expect Arizona to bounce back with their offense, and win by a touchdown."
  
  Tampa Bay at Buffalo - "The Bills did some good things on Monday night, but not as many, and not as well, as the score seemed to indicate. Their defense gave up tons and tons of yardage, and while they made a couple of 4th down stops, it seemed more a case of New England failing to execute than Buffalo stopping them. And, of course, when the game situation got critical, the Patriots scored 14 unanswered in less than five minutes. Lucky for them, they come out of it with their confidence up, and Tampa Bay is not New England."




• Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite [and there're a plethora of comments to choose from this week]):
  
  

  Houston at Tennessee - "Let's see. The Titans lost, on the road, in overtime, to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Texans got blown out at home to the defending 3rd place in the AFC East Jets. Hmm... Ponder, ponder. What should I do? Who should I take? Man, some of these decisions are so hard..."
  
  Cincinnati at Green Bay - "I think it's pretty clear that I think less of the Green Bay Packers than many of the pundits do. But we're talking about a Bengals team that lost at home to Denver last week. I'd have to think a whole lot less of the Packers than I do to take Cincinnati."
  
  New England at NY Jets - "The Jets aren't just going to beat the Patriots this week, they're going to embarrass them. Or not. I suspect not. The Jets may put 28 on the board. The Patriots will match them, score for score, plus score a couple more times. (And I'm still waiting for the commissioner to take away the Jets 2010 first round draft pick. After all, isn't that the established penalty for "cheating?")"




• For the week:
  Winners: 8-8
  ATS: 6-10-0



• For the season:
  Winners: 20-12
  ATS: 14-18-0

NFL picks, Week 2

Predictions for Week 2 in the 2009 NFL season:


Arizona (+4.5) at Jacksonville - The Cardinals are the epitome of the talented but inconsistent team, a team capable of getting blown out by a non-playoff team and starting a run to the Super Bowl two weeks later. Jacksonville is a faux NFL team, a bully team that isn't anywhere near as tough, physical, smart or effective as it thinks it is, or is reputed to be. Could the Jaguars win this at home? Sure. And they could win big, as the Cardinals can go way, way South when they go. But I expect Arizona to bounce back with their offense, and win by a touchdown.

Baltimore at San Diego (-3.5) - If the Ravens go out to San Diego and win this week, I'll re-shuffle my mental rankings and raise the Ravens to "scary." Right now, I still need to be convinced, and have them classified as "pretty good."

Carolina at Atlanta (-7) - There are two real questions here. The first is, "how many touchdowns does Jake Delhomme throw this week?" The second, and more important, is, "are any of them to guys wearing Carolina Panthers uniforms?"

Cincinnati at Green Bay (-9) - I think it's pretty clear that I think less of the Green Bay Packers than many of the pundits do. But we're talking about a Bengals team that lost at home to Denver last week. I'd have to think a whole lot less of the Packers than I do to take Cincinnati.

Cleveland (-3.5) at Denver - Remember Peppermint Patty taking a true/false test? "That makes three trues in a row, so this must be false..." Silly, of course. And here I am, taking Cleveland, apparently on the theory that I can't just take all of the home teams.

Houston at Tennessee (-8) - Let's see. The Titans lost, on the road, in overtime, to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Texans got blown out at home to the defending 3rd place in the AFC East Jets. Hmm... Ponder, ponder. What should I do? Who should I take? Man, some of these decisions are so hard...

Minnesota at Detroit (+10.5) - I know what you're thinking - Lyford has gone crazy. He's lost it. Well...I can't necessarily disagree. Here are the things that are driving this - I think Minnesota's overrated. I think Detroit is going to make strides. The Lions are at home. The Vikings are unlikely to bring their 'A' game, just because it's Detroit. At some point, Brett Favre's going to have to throw the ball. Put it all together and ... OK, Lyford's crazy. (I do think that the Vikings win, they just don't cover.)

N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-2.5) - Match these two teams up in December, and it's Coughlin over Phillips every time. Match 'em up in Texas in September, it's a coin toss. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Heads. Hmm - I think I've got Rosencrantz' quarter here...

New England (-4) at N.Y. Jets - The Jets aren't just going to beat the Patriots this week, they're going to embarrass them. Or not. I suspect not. The Jets may put 28 on the board. The Patriots will match them, score for score, plus score a couple more times. (And I'm still waiting for the commissioner to take away the Jets 2010 first round draft pick. After all, isn't that the established penalty for "cheating?")

New Orleans (+0) at Philadelphia - Don't know how good New Orleans defense is. But I know that the McNabb and Vick-less Eagles aren't going to score enough to match the Saints.

Oakland at Kansas City (-3.5) - Really? Picking the Chiefs to cover more than a field goal against anyone? And didn't the Raiders almost beat the Chargers on Monday night? Yes. Yes. And Yes.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Chicago - So are the Bears wearing white and the Steelers black, or the other way around? Either way, will Jay Cutler be able to differentiate between Chicago receivers and Pittsburgh defensive backs? Not quite enough, I suspect.

Seattle at San Francisco (+0) - As of today, September 18, 2009, I'm picking the San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West.

St. Louis at Washington (-10.5) - That St. Louis team that played in Seattle last week didn't look as if it could stay within 2 touchdowns of any real NFL team. And they were only playing the Seahawks.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo (-4.5) - The Bills did some good things on Monday night, but not as many, and not as well, as the score seemed to indicate. Their defense gave up tons and tons of yardage, and while they made a couple of 4th down stops, it seemed more a case of New England failing to execute than Buffalo stopping them. And, of course, when the game situation got critical, the Patriots scored 14 unanswered in less than five minutes. Lucky for them, they come out of it with their confidence up, and Tampa Bay is not New England.

Indianapolis (-2) at Miami - Yes, Dungy's gone. Does this make this Colts team appreciably weaker than its immediate predecessors? I don't see it. I instead see a Miami team that's all alone in last place in the AFC East on Tuesday morning.