Saturday, November 21, 2009

NFL Picks, Week 11

Picks for week 11 of the 2009 NFL season...

Thursday:

Miami at Carolina (-3) - Anyone who's been reading me for any length of time knows that I don't think much of the Panthers, but I haven't thought much of the Dolphins, either, and the loss of Ronnie Brown is a tough one for that team to overcome.

UPDATED with Sunday's picks:

Pittsburgh (-10) at Kansas City - I know that it's on the road. I know that the Chiefs won last week. I know that I've been a Chiefs backer pretty often this year, thinking highly of both the GM and the QB. All of that and the Steelers' problems running the ball notwithstanding, it's hard to imagine this not being Pittsburgh by two scores or more.

Seattle at Minnesota (-10.5) - Another game in which the talent discrepancy leaves me with nothing interesting whatsoever to say.

Washington at Dallas (-11) - The Cowboys, riding high, got spanked by the Packers last week in a result that I didn't see coming. And the Redskins beat the Broncos handily. Which leaves your humble game-picker in a state of confusion. I guess that I need to see more than one week in a row.

San Francisco (+7) at Green Bay - I suspect that this is an "I like Singletary" wishful-thinking pick. I certainly can't justify it.

Buffalo (+9) at Jacksonville - This could easily go the other way, but I'm betting on the Bills being shamed by the firing of their coach into picking it up and putting an NFL effort on the field against another of the AFC's also rans.

Cleveland at Detroit (-3.5) - Hmm... St. Louis vs. Oakland? Cleveland vs. Oakland? St. Louis vs. Detroit? Detroit vs. Kansas City? Hmm... It's tough to tell. This might actually be the worst game that NFL schedule-makers could give us this season.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (+1.5) - The Colts came from behind, yet again, to pull out another game and run their regular season winning streak to 17. If it's going to end anytime soon, it ends this week.

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-7) - As bad as the Giants have been, well, the Falcons have been nearly that bad. And the Giants are at home and coming off of a bye week.

New Orleans (-11) at Tampa Bay - Let me say this clearly, leaving no room for mis-interpretation - the Saints are NOT going undefeated this season. Not now way, not no how. That said, they ARE going undefeated this week.

Arizona (-9) at St. Louis - A good NFL team would have to really play down to get beaten by the dreadful Rams. And the Cardinals are just the team to do it. But it's not the way to bet.

San Diego (+0) at Denver - This game is actually off the board right now, because no one knows whether Orton's playing or not. I'm thinking that it doesn't actually matter. San Diego's righted the ship, Denver's taking on water, and this one goes to the Chargers by 4-7 regardless of who plays QB for the Broncos.

N.Y. Jets at New England (-11) - Blowout. Payback for the Jets for week 2 (and Wes Welker and Jarod Mayo are back while Kris Jenkins is gone), payback for the world for the abuse heaped this past week, the Patriots put the hammer down early and keep it down. The Jets would be lucky to score 10 or hold the Patriots under 30.

Cincinnati (-10) at Oakland - The Raiders might win this game on Sunday. And I might vote for Barack Obama in 2012. And the sun may rise in the West. I'm not putting money on any of those things happening.

Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago - Chicago is closer to the Atlantic Ocean than San Diego or Oakland. Is it close enough for the Eagles to function? All signs point to yes.

Tennessee at Houston (-4.5) - Tennessee played about as bad a game as an NFL team can play in the snows of Foxboro. Then they took a much-needed week off. Since then, they haven't lost, and the rumors of the demise of Jeff Fisher turned out to be exaggerated. Can they run the winning streak to four in a row? Doesn't seem likely.

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