NFL picks, Week 12

Picks for week 12 of the 2009 NFL season...

Thanksgiving games:

Green Bay at Detroit (+12) - Obviously, Green Bay is going to win this. But the Lions are going to give the entire nation something extra to be thankful for, as they give us a competitive game, at least through three quarters, and lose by 10 or less.

Oakland (+14) at Dallas - Again, there's no question about who wins this game - the Cowboys do. And it gives me a bad feeling to be picking the Raiders, even if it's only picking them to keep it within two touchdowns. But picking the Cowboys to cover two touchdowns made me even queasier.

N.Y. Giants at Denver (+6) - The conventional wisdom is that the Broncos are in free fall and the Giants are back on track. Maybe it's true, in which case I'm wrong here. But I'm not quite ready to buy either of those propositions, and Denver's still a tough place to play.

Post-Thanksgiving Games:

Tampa Bay (+12) at Atlanta - The Falcons, as much as they've struggled, are still too good to lose to Tampa at home. But they won't win by much.

Miami (-3) at Buffalo - The Dolphins are still harboring hopes of repeating as division champs. The Bills are playing out the string while wooing Mike Shanahan. This one goes exactly as you'd think it would.

Cleveland (+14) at Cincinnati - Yet another split pick. Bengals win by less than 14.

Indianapolis at Houston (+3.5) - The streak ends. Because...well, because I want it to.

Carolina at N.Y. Jets (-3) - It seems odd to be picking a team which has lost 6 of its last 7, doesn't it? And the Panthers are two games better than the Jets over the last seven. Yeah, I could see the Jets losing, but I just cannot pick Carolina.

Washington at Philadelphia (-9) - The Eagles won by 10 in Washington a month ago. Expect a game like any other, only more so.

Seattle (-3) at St. Louis - St. Louis is possibly the only place I'd be picking the Seahawks to cover ANY spread on the road.

Kansas City (+14) at San Diego - The Chiefs are showing signs of life. The Chargers, playing better, are still not to be trusted against an inferior opponent. I can't see Kansas City winning, but I can sure see it closer than two touchdowns.

Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3) - Here's something that's absolutely shocking - if the season ended today, the 6-4 Jacksonville Jaguars would make the playoffs. Will they still be in that spot at 6-5 on Monday? I doubt it.

Chicago at Minnesota (-11) - Are we in the home stretch of the Lovie Smith era in Chicago?

Arizona (+2) at Tennessee - Yes, the Titans have been much better of late. Yes, the Cardinals can't always be trusted to play well against a perceived inferior team. I am stunned, nonetheless, to see Tennessee favored in this game.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2) - If Roethlisberger were playing, I'd still be picking the Ravens (despite the fact that they gave away the game last week against Indianapolis.)

New England (+3) at New Orleans - The Saints have played better than New England thus far, albeit against an easier schedule. But they aren't going to finish undefeated, and they aren't going to finish undefeated because they're going to lose against the Patriots on Monday.