Terry Francona is not a moron.

I've seen and heard a lot of criticism, even condemnation, of Terry Francona for not pulling Gagne after he walked the bases loaded last night. Yes, that was a frustrating game last night. Yes, Gagne has been a disaster. Yes, if your primary goal was winning that game, he should have been pulled before the game-tying walk.

But that obviously isn't the primary goal. Francona's not a moron. If we all can see what's happening, he can see it, too. We've got enough of a track record with him now to be able to understand what's happening. That would never happen in a playoff game. But they aren't playing playoff games yet - they're getting ready to go to the playoffs*. One of the things that they need to do is understand, before they set the rosters, whether Gagne is salvagable or not.

That stunk last night, but going into the post-season with the best record (which they still have, by the way) is not as important as going in with the right roster. As we've seen repeatedly. The only goal of the regular season is to win enough games to be playing in the post-seaons. Period. Sometime in the next few days, the Red Sox will have accomplished that this year.

The last time the team with the best record in baseball won a World Series was in 1998, when the Yankees did it. In the last 5 years, the AL representative in the World Series has gotten into the post-season via the Wild Card 3 times. Last year, the AL sent Detroit to the World Series, a team that led its division all year, had a bigger lead in August than the Red Sox did this year, and ended up losing its division late.

None of that means that I want them to go in as the Wild Card. I haven't given up on the division. I want them to win it, and think that there's some importance to doing so. But it pales in significance to setting the roster. And playing well in the playoffs. Last night's loss, in the grand scheme of things, doesn't mean as much as a win with Gagne getting out of that inning would have. So they left him in.

And prepare yourselves, because it (bringing him into a tight situation late and letting him pitch) is very likely to happen again...


* - And don't even bother with panic talk about how that might keep them out of the playoffs. They're 7 up in the loss column on Detroit with 10 to play, the magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 4. They'll be playing in the playoffs.


Update:
Over at Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan agrees with me (though he's coming at the same question from a different perspective.) [Subscription required]

Look at how Terry Francona has managed his squad all month, in the knowledge that his team is going to October. He’s been resting players all around the roster, diddling with his rotation, and trying experiments like "let’s see how many batters Eric Gagne can walk in one inning." ... I can’t quantify the effects of rest on a player’s performance, but I can say that the cost of doing so—possibly ending up as the wild card versus winning the division—is essentially zero...It doesn’t matter who wins the AL East. It just matters that both the Yankees and the Red Sox stay ahead of the Tigers. As long as both are doing that, there’s no reason to care about who ends up with the better seed.

Eric Gagne's trail of woe

On July 31, the Red Sox acquired closer Eric Gagne from Texas, adding to a strength, as they already had the most effective bullpen in the AL. The idea was to bolster the bullpen, shorten the game, and give Okajima and Papelbon a little more rest. The move was universally praised. I thought that it was a smart move - I still think that it was a smart move. There will be second-guessers mocking the front office for this one, but I won't be one of them. You judge a move based on what you know at the time. It looked like a good idea.

But it has been a disaster. A complete and total disaster. The magnitude of the problem can be understood when you say that they'd have been far better off had Gagne gotten hurt before ever taking the mound for the team. While it's rare that you can ever blame one player for a loss, a late inning reliever has to take that responsibility when he blows it. This team has four losses for which Gagne is directly responsible.

1. Friday, August 10 - Boston's bats rally in the 8th at Baltimore, and they take 5-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th. Gagne comes in and allows 4 runs while retiring one batter. Boston loses, 6-5.


2. Sunday, August 12 - Two days later, Boston takes a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th. Gagne comes in, walks the first batter, gives up a 2-run homer to the third. Boston loses in 10, 6-3.


3. Friday, August 17 - Five days after that, poised to take a double-header from the Angels after the Red Sox batters against score 4 in the bottom of the 8th, Gagne comes out to protect a 5-4 lead. He gives up 3 runs after retiring the first batter, and Boston loses 7-5.


4. Tuesday, September 18 - An excellent performance by Jon Lester brings the Red Sox to the 8th inning with a 2-1 lead. Gagne retires the first two Toronto batters in the bottom of the 8th. Walk, single, walk loads the bases. Walk ties the game. Double drives in two more. Boston scores one in the 9th, but loses 4-3.

And the magic number is still 9, and the lead is down to 2 in the loss column, and there are four games which they almost certainly would have won had they not made the deadline trade for Gagne, and there aren't any games to point at on the plus side, games where he has made a positive difference.

He has allowed at least one run in 7 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed the tying or go-ahead run in 4 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed one or more baserunners in 14 of his 15 appearances. He has allowed 30 baserunners in just 14 innings. He's allowed 14 runs, for an ERA of 9.00.

He has, in short, been a disaster.

Update: Baseball Crank emails: "Eric Gagne is French for Calvin Schiraldi."