Monday, September 24, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 9/24

One more week of the regular season, and all that remains is setting rotations, resting players, re-integrating returning players. Oh, and deciding the play-off seeding.

  • With 6 games remaining for Boston and 7 for New York, the Red Sox have a 1 game lead in the loss column. The Yankees win the East if they tie. So basically, the situation is this. If the Red Sox lose more games than the Yankees this week, the Yankees win the east. Otherwise, the Red Sox do.


  • Boston, New York, Anaheim and Cleveland will be the four AL playoff teams. Boston cannot play New York in the first round, but everything else is up for grabs. Each one of those teams has 63-65 losses. Any of the four could finish with the best record in baseball, any could finish with the 4th best record in the AL.


  • It is clear that the four best records in the AL are going to be playing post-season ball. It is also very likely that absent the Wild Card, one of the two best teams would be sitting home.


  • I had some things to say about last week's action, but I've pretty much already said them...





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/24/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.33(3)4.06(1)0.622(1)97599264-5

New York5.91(1)4.75(7)0.598(2)93629065-3

Los Angeles5.16(4)4.48(5)0.564(3)886892644

Cleveland5.03(5)4.39(3)0.561(4)876892635

Detroit5.47(2)5(9)0.541(5)847285711

Toronto4.58(11)4.3(2)0.529(6)82737877-4

Minnesota4.5(12)4.46(4)0.505(7)78777679-2

Oakland4.63(9)4.67(6)0.496(8)78797582-3

Seattle4.94(7)5.07(10)0.488(9)767983727

Texas5.01(6)5.25(13)0.479(10)75817284-3

Kansas City4.43(13)4.81(8)0.462(11)72836788-5

Baltimore4.59(10)5.24(12)0.44(12)68876689-2

Tampa Bay4.84(8)5.82(14)0.416(13)65916492-1

Chicago4.26(14)5.21(11)0.408(14)649268884




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9666

Los Angeles9666

Cleveland9666

New York9468

Detroit8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9666

Cleveland9666

Los Angeles9567

New York9468

Detroit8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York7.5(1)4.5(6)0.718(1)42511

Chicago5(4)3.29(1)0.683(2)5243-1

Toronto6.17(2)4.67(8)0.625(3)42420

Seattle5.57(3)4.29(5)0.618(4)43521

Cleveland5(4)4.17(4)0.583(5)33512

Los Angeles4.57(6)3.86(3)0.577(6)43521

Minnesota4.5(7)3.83(2)0.573(7)33421

Detroit4.5(7)5(10)0.452(8)3324-1

Boston4.17(10)4.67(8)0.448(9)3324-1

Texas3.71(11)4.57(7)0.406(10)3425-1

Oakland4.33(9)5.67(12)0.38(11)2415-1

Baltimore3.57(12)5.71(14)0.297(12)25250

Tampa Bay3.5(13)5.67(12)0.293(13)2415-1

Kansas City3.14(14)5.14(11)0.289(14)25341

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