One more week of the regular season, and all that remains is setting rotations, resting players, re-integrating returning players. Oh, and deciding the play-off seeding.
- With 6 games remaining for Boston and 7 for New York, the Red Sox have a 1 game lead in the loss column. The Yankees win the East if they tie. So basically, the situation is this. If the Red Sox lose more games than the Yankees this week, the Yankees win the east. Otherwise, the Red Sox do.
- Boston, New York, Anaheim and Cleveland will be the four AL playoff teams. Boston cannot play New York in the first round, but everything else is up for grabs. Each one of those teams has 63-65 losses. Any of the four could finish with the best record in baseball, any could finish with the 4th best record in the AL.
- It is clear that the four best records in the AL are going to be playing post-season ball. It is also very likely that absent the Wild Card, one of the two best teams would be sitting home.
- I had some things to say about last week's action, but I've pretty much already said them...
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/24/2007
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Boston | 5.33 | (3) | 4.06 | (1) | 0.622 | (1) | 97 | 59 | 92 | 64 | -5
| | New York | 5.91 | (1) | 4.75 | (7) | 0.598 | (2) | 93 | 62 | 90 | 65 | -3
| | Los Angeles | 5.16 | (4) | 4.48 | (5) | 0.564 | (3) | 88 | 68 | 92 | 64 | 4
| | Cleveland | 5.03 | (5) | 4.39 | (3) | 0.561 | (4) | 87 | 68 | 92 | 63 | 5
| | Detroit | 5.47 | (2) | 5 | (9) | 0.541 | (5) | 84 | 72 | 85 | 71 | 1
| | Toronto | 4.58 | (11) | 4.3 | (2) | 0.529 | (6) | 82 | 73 | 78 | 77 | -4
| | Minnesota | 4.5 | (12) | 4.46 | (4) | 0.505 | (7) | 78 | 77 | 76 | 79 | -2
| | Oakland | 4.63 | (9) | 4.67 | (6) | 0.496 | (8) | 78 | 79 | 75 | 82 | -3
| | Seattle | 4.94 | (7) | 5.07 | (10) | 0.488 | (9) | 76 | 79 | 83 | 72 | 7
| | Texas | 5.01 | (6) | 5.25 | (13) | 0.479 | (10) | 75 | 81 | 72 | 84 | -3
| | Kansas City | 4.43 | (13) | 4.81 | (8) | 0.462 | (11) | 72 | 83 | 67 | 88 | -5
| | Baltimore | 4.59 | (10) | 5.24 | (12) | 0.44 | (12) | 68 | 87 | 66 | 89 | -2
| | Tampa Bay | 4.84 | (8) | 5.82 | (14) | 0.416 | (13) | 65 | 91 | 64 | 92 | -1
| | Chicago | 4.26 | (14) | 5.21 | (11) | 0.408 | (14) | 64 | 92 | 68 | 88 | 4
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Boston | 96 | 66
|
| Los Angeles | 96 | 66
|
| Cleveland | 96 | 66
|
| New York | 94 | 68
|
| Detroit | 88 | 74
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Boston | 96 | 66
|
| Cleveland | 96 | 66
|
| Los Angeles | 95 | 67
|
| New York | 94 | 68
|
| Detroit | 88 | 74
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| New York | 7.5 | (1) | 4.5 | (6) | 0.718 | (1) | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1
| | Chicago | 5 | (4) | 3.29 | (1) | 0.683 | (2) | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1
| | Toronto | 6.17 | (2) | 4.67 | (8) | 0.625 | (3) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0
| | Seattle | 5.57 | (3) | 4.29 | (5) | 0.618 | (4) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1
| | Cleveland | 5 | (4) | 4.17 | (4) | 0.583 | (5) | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2
| | Los Angeles | 4.57 | (6) | 3.86 | (3) | 0.577 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1
| | Minnesota | 4.5 | (7) | 3.83 | (2) | 0.573 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1
| | Detroit | 4.5 | (7) | 5 | (10) | 0.452 | (8) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1
| | Boston | 4.17 | (10) | 4.67 | (8) | 0.448 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1
| | Texas | 3.71 | (11) | 4.57 | (7) | 0.406 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1
| | Oakland | 4.33 | (9) | 5.67 | (12) | 0.38 | (11) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| | Baltimore | 3.57 | (12) | 5.71 | (14) | 0.297 | (12) | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 3.5 | (13) | 5.67 | (12) | 0.293 | (13) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| | Kansas City | 3.14 | (14) | 5.14 | (11) | 0.289 | (14) | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1
| |
|---|
Labels: 2007, baseball, pythagorean, Red Sox
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