Are the Sox going to catch the Orioles?

In response to the contention, made elsewhere, that someone was "waiting for the Orioles to fall back to Earth" and that it "doesn't seem to be happening."

Sure it does. And it will continue. The Red Sox will finish 5-10 games ahead of the Orioles. Boston's a much better team. And they've made up 6 games on the Orioles in the last 6 weeks. On May 10, Boston was 12-19, 7 1/2 games behind the 20-12 Orioles. Since then, Baltimore is 21-21 (and have been outscored by 25!) while Boston is 28-16 (and have outscored its opposition by 67). Over that stretch, and despite the record numbers of outfielders on the DL, despite the lackluster (at best) performances of the expected superstars¹, only the Yankees and Angels have better records than Boston, and no AL team has a better run differential or pythagorean record.

Baltimore is a mediocre team, settling after a hot start. They'll finish the season within 4-6 games of .500. Boston will win 90+. Boston is better than Toronto and Baltimore. Boston is better than Seattle and Oakland. Boston is better than anyone in the Central. The Red Sox need to finish ahead of one of Tampa and LA to make the post-season, and they are already tied with Tampa (on whom they've made up 7 1/5 games over the same stretch.) Barring a 2011-style meltdown (which is obviously a possibility), Boston will be one of the five (and what a bad idea that was, MLB) playoff teams from the AL this year.



¹ - Think about this for a moment - on opening day, the offensive stars of the 2012 Boston Red Sox were Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Over this seven week stretch, they've made up six games on the Orioles, 7 1/2 on the Rays, and played almost the best baseball in the AL, while those five players hit .255/.330/.444/.774, which, while mediocre, actually looks as if it were better than it was, because David Ortiz was a monster (.272/.390/.626/1.016). What really happened is that Ellsbury didn't play at all and the other three combined to hit only .249/.305/.377/.682, while starting, on average, 34 of the 44 games. And they still went 28-16.

Let me just say this about that

The end was ... appropriate. Proportional to what led up to it.



This is what makes sports compelling. Storylines that would get thrown out of Hollywood script pitches as being too unlikely, too unrealistic...

Deja vu...

...all over again.

Tuesday night (9/6), the bats explode and the Red Sox win by double digits against the Blue Jays.
Wednesday (9/7), they take a lead against the Jays into the late innings, and a Daniel Bard meltdown costs them the win.

Tuesday night (9/13), the bats explode and the Red Sox win by double digits against the Blue Jays.
Wednesday (9/14), they take a lead against the Jays into the late innings, and a Daniel Bard meltdown costs them the win.

Hopefully, the wayback machine is now broken, and we don't continue down the path to a sweep by the Rays over the Sox...

Boston at Tampa

A brief comment, before they get underway. I've seen this kind of series many times over the years, generally with Boston chasing NY, and it's far more important for the Rays than the Red Sox. Basically, Tampa needs a sweep - Boston just needs to win one.

No, Tampa won't be out of it if they go 2-1, but they'll have missed their last best change to make up the ground between the two teams. Four games is doable over four weeks, but you need to play great ball, not have any bad luck, and get some help.

One win for Boston is all they need in Tampa.

Monday Pythagorean, 8/31/2009

You don't need me to tell you that 6-1 is a productive week. The lead in the Wild Card is now up to 3 1/2 over Texas and 5 1/2 over Tampa.

• The odds of the Red Sox catching the Yankees are slim. That's life. As we know, it does not matter. In the age of the Wild Card, the only thing that matters is making the playoffs. The Yankees are a great team and have had an unbelievable month and a half. They met up with the Yankees riding high and the Red Sox struggling, and the result was a sudden shift from a tight division to a significant Yankee lead. But here's the thing - if they meet again in the post-season, the 8-0 Red Sox start vs. New York will be exactly as relevant as the four-game sweep in Yankee Stadium.



• Tampa's loss yesterday, late to the Tigers, made this weeks journey south a lot more comfortable. The Red Sox are going to arrive in Chicago on Friday with at least a 2 1/2 game lead over the Rays, even if they get swept. If they can sweep, they'll effectively eliminate the Rays from, if not contention, at least my concern. More likely, the series finishes 2-1 or 1-2, and they leave Tampa with a lead of 4 1/2 or 6 1/2 over the still scary Rays.



• It's starting to look as if the Rangers might be more of a threat than the Rays. I can't quite get my brain to buy it. The concept of Texas allowing the fewest runs per game in the league is foreign to me.



• So is the concept of the Angels leading the AL in runs.



• Five weeks left. 32 games. 15 home, 17 away. The Rays have 18 home, 15 away remaining. The Rangers have 16 home, 17 away. BP's playoff odds report says that the Red Sox are 77% likely to make the post-season. Looks/sounds about right to me.



• There was substantial panic in Red Sox nation a couple of weeks ago. A lot of that seems to have died out. 'Twould have better had it not started in the first place, but the second-guessing fatalists are always going to be with us, and they've got megaphones in 'EEI and the Globe.



• Over the last 3 weeks, the Red Sox are score 6.5 runs per game, first in the AL.



• I've made this point before, but I'll make it again. There are a lot of people who say, "Alex Gonzalez is here for his glove - it doesn't matter what he does with his bat." That's wrong. Yes, it does matter. When they start the game, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, etc. all hit. None of them gets another at-bat until Alex Gonzalez gets one, too. When you've got an automatic out at the bottom of the order, it stops rallies. During the rare weeks of productivity (like this one) you score lots of runs.



• Red Sox Player of the Week - They scored 6 runs per game, so it should come as no surprise that there were a lot of good performances this week. Including the annual short alien possession of Alex Gonzalez. The top performance was J.D. Drew, who hit .364/.500/.864/1.364 with 3 HR.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The best single performance of the week was Clay Buchholz' domination of the Blue Jays on Saturday night. But he had an awful outing earlier in the week. Obviously, Beckett's struggles continued. Tazawa had a disaster start. Lester's start was good, not great - hopefully he's saving that for Tampa this week. There were a bunch of good bullpen performances, but there are two performances that really stand out. I've had weeks without giving this out - this week I'll give out two. The first is for Tim Wakefield, who returned (albeit temporarily) from the DL and was stellar, allowing only one run in seven innings of work. The second is for the most unexpected performance of hte year thus far, the six-inning short shutout of Toronto by old Father TimePaul Byrd. I can't believe that anyone saw that one coming.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/31/2009

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	5.68	(2)	4.72	(8)	0.585	(1)	76	54	82	48	6
Boston	5.32	(3)	4.5	(4)	0.576	(2)	75	55	76	54	1
Tampa Bay	5.14	(4)	4.52	(5)	0.559	(3)	72	57	70	59	-2
Los Angeles	5.75	(1)	5.09	(11)	0.555	(4)	72	57	77	52	5
Texas	4.83	(7)	4.34	(1)	0.549	(5)	71	58	72	57	1
Detroit	4.57	(10)	4.45	(3)	0.513	(6)	66	63	69	60	3
Minnesota	4.96	(6)	4.9	(10)	0.506	(7)	66	64	65	65	-1
Toronto	4.72	(8)	4.66	(7)	0.505	(8)	65	63	58	70	-7
Chicago	4.57	(11)	4.63	(6)	0.494	(9)	65	66	64	67	-1
Cleveland	5.02	(5)	5.25	(13)	0.48	(10)	62	68	58	72	-4
Oakland	4.42	(12)	4.79	(9)	0.463	(11)	60	70	57	73	-3
Seattle	4.01	(14)	4.36	(2)	0.462	(12)	60	71	68	63	8
Baltimore	4.66	(9)	5.27	(14)	0.444	(13)	58	73	54	77	-4
Kansas City	4.11	(13)	5.19	(12)	0.395	(14)	51	79	50	80	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	102	60
Los Angeles	97	65
Boston	95	67
Texas	90	72
Tampa Bay	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	101	61
Los Angeles	95	67
Boston	94	68
Texas	90	72
Tampa Bay	88	74

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	7.17	(1)	4	(5)	0.744	(1)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	6	(2)	4.14	(7)	0.663	(2)	5	2	6	1	1
Baltimore	5.29	(3)	3.71	(4)	0.656	(3)	5	2	3	4	-2
Detroit	4.67	(6)	3.67	(3)	0.609	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Seattle	4.29	(10)	3.43	(2)	0.601	(5)	4	3	5	2	1
Tampa Bay	4.83	(5)	4	(5)	0.586	(6)	4	2	3	3	-1
Los Angeles	5.29	(3)	4.43	(8)	0.58	(7)	4	3	3	4	-1
Texas	4.5	(9)	4.67	(9)	0.483	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Kansas City	4.57	(7)	4.86	(10)	0.472	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Minnesota	3	(13)	3.33	(1)	0.452	(10)	3	3	4	2	1
Cleveland	4.57	(7)	5.57	(12)	0.41	(11)	3	4	4	3	1
Oakland	2.86	(14)	5	(11)	0.264	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Chicago	3.86	(11)	7	(14)	0.251	(13)	2	5	1	6	-1
Toronto	3.33	(12)	6.17	(13)	0.245	(14)	1	5	1	5	0

Monday Pythagorean, 5/11/2009

Winning two out of three makes for a successful week and a successful season. 5-2 is even better.

• OK, I'll admit it - when Tampa scored in the first inning on Sunday night, I thought it was over. Hey, I thought the same thing Friday night when Shields took a 3-0 lead into the sixth. Tampa has seemed to have Boston's number this year, they've done nothing whatsoever against Garza, and had relatively limited success against Shields.



• It was a good thing that they were able to come back on Friday, because Saturday was a debacle of the highest order. Whether it was bad positioning, poor range, poor reactions or just plain bad luck, it seemed as if every ground ball that Lester through threw¹ managed to roll into the outfield. He's had a couple of performances in which he gave up a lot of runs without seeming to get pounded, but his numbers are not good.



• Neither are Beckett's. When you look at the fact that Becket, Lester and Matsuzaka are, right now, averaging 5.52 innings per start with a combined ERA of 6.83, it is miraculous that the Red Sox are over .500. They've gotten great work from Wakefield, good support from Masterson, excellent work out of the bullpen, and a strong offense. At some point, you'd like to think that Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka would pitch well, too, because some of the positives are bound to take hits.



• It's a good inning when the first five batters come to the plate and score, the last one homering. The Red Sox did that in the sixth inning on Friday night, but it wasn't even the best sixth inning of the week. On Thursday night, the first twelve (12) batters in the sixth inning scored, finishing on a Bay home run.



• A 5-2 week is even better when it includes a 4-1 record against two teams expected to compete for the division title, two teams widely considered to be among the best four or five teams in the game. Boston is now 5-0 against the Yankees, and, while going only 4-6 against Tampa in the early going, they've still managed to build up a 5 1/2 game cushion over the Rays.



• Anyone who thinks that the Rays are done, who thinks that their current record represents their real level, is wrong. They've played well enough to be a couple of games over .500 instead of a couple of games under. But they haven't gotten the breaks, they've run good pitching performances up against slightly better ones, or good offensive days against slightly better ones. Last year, I said all they way along that they were a little bit lucky, that they had a record better than their performance because they had a great record in one-run games. I also said that one-run games is predominantly determined by "luck." Well, with essentially the same team, they're 3-6 in their first 9 one-run games this year. But they'll be playing for a playoff spot in September.



• I remain a Blue Jay skeptic, but it's getting harder to do. They've now played well for a significant length of time. I just don't believe that they can continue to play this well for an entire season. And their schedule will get tougher than it's been so far.



• Red Sox Player of the Week: Jason Bay is the easy choice. Not only does he continue to rake, hitting .379/.438/.897/1.334 on the week with 4 HR, mostly at important times, but he didn't take a 50 game suspension, thus increasing his value to the team.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: In 4 1/3 innings of high-leverage relief work, Hidecki Okajima allowed only one baserunner (0 hits, 1 BB) while striking out five. Honorable mention to Jonathan Papelbon, who built himself a mess in the 9th inning of the series finale against Tampa, but proceeded to strike out Pena, Upton and Crawford in order to end it.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/11/2009

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	6	(1)	4.53	(4)	0.626	(1)	21	13	22	12	1
Kansas City	4.56	(11)	3.72	(1)	0.592	(2)	19	13	18	14	-1
Boston	5.78	(2)	5.09	(9)	0.558	(3)	18	14	20	12	2
Detroit	5	(8)	4.5	(2)	0.548	(4)	16	14	17	13	1
Tampa Bay	5.12	(5)	4.67	(6)	0.542	(5)	18	15	15	18	-3
Texas	5.65	(3)	5.16	(10)	0.541	(6)	17	14	17	14	0
Los Angeles	4.93	(9)	5	(8)	0.494	(7)	15	15	16	14	1
Oakland	4.17	(12)	4.52	(3)	0.464	(8)	13	16	11	18	-2
New York	5.55	(4)	6.23	(14)	0.447	(9)	14	17	15	16	1
Chicago	4.17	(13)	4.7	(7)	0.445	(10)	13	17	14	16	1
Seattle	4.09	(14)	4.66	(5)	0.441	(11)	14	18	16	16	2
Minnesota	4.59	(10)	5.28	(11)	0.437	(12)	14	18	15	17	1
Cleveland	5.03	(7)	5.88	(12)	0.43	(13)	14	18	11	21	-3
Baltimore	5.06	(6)	5.94	(13)	0.428	(14)	14	18	13	19	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Toronto	105	57
Boston	101	61
Detroit	92	70
Kansas City	91	71
Texas	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Toronto	102	60
Kansas City	95	67
Boston	92	70
Detroit	89	73
Texas	88	74

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	5	(4)	3.14	(3)	0.7	(1)	5	2	5	2	0
Kansas City	3.86	(9)	2.57	(1)	0.677	(2)	5	2	4	3	-1
Toronto	6.43	(1)	4.43	(7)	0.664	(3)	5	2	4	3	-1
Detroit	3.5	(12)	2.67	(2)	0.622	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Baltimore	5	(4)	4.14	(5)	0.585	(5)	4	3	4	3	0
Tampa Bay	6	(3)	5.14	(10)	0.57	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Los Angeles	3.71	(10)	3.29	(4)	0.556	(7)	4	3	6	1	2
Minnesota	5	(4)	4.43	(7)	0.555	(8)	4	3	3	4	-1
Boston	6.29	(2)	5.57	(11)	0.555	(9)	4	3	5	2	1
Oakland	3.57	(11)	4.43	(7)	0.403	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
New York	4.29	(7)	5.71	(12)	0.371	(11)	3	4	2	5	-1
Cleveland	4.29	(7)	6	(13)	0.351	(12)	2	5	2	5	0
Chicago	2.83	(14)	4.33	(6)	0.315	(13)	2	4	2	4	0
Seattle	2.86	(13)	6.86	(14)	0.168	(14)	1	6	1	6	0

¹ - OK, so I typed the wrong homophone. I do know the difference, and at least I spelled the wrong word correctly...

Monday Pythagorean, 5/4/2009

All good things come to an end, including 11-game winnings streaks.

• Both the hitting (11th in the AL) and the pitching (14th in the AL) were bad this week. But at least they tended to be bad at the same time, and blowouts with close wins leads to better records with the same run distributions. And they did take 2 of 3 in the first road series. The big problem is that, so far, they've not been able to handle Tampa Bay. They can't hit Garza, and Longoria and Pena play like Ruth and Gehrig against Boston.



• At some point, someone different will carry the team for a while. Thus far, it's been Youkilis, helped out by Bay, Lowell and Drew, with some help from Varitek. And not much more.



• Ortiz is about to come out of it, though. He had a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad week, with just four hits, three singles and a double. But he's starting to look like himself again - he took two walks on Saturday night that were the best plate appearances he's had this season. If he can maintain the approach, he'll be productive soon.



• Obviously, that was a very painful way to end a winning streak, throwing the ball all over the place, dropping it, and losing a game in which you'd had a couple of different four run leads. But there are going to be a couple of those every year, and you can't spend too much time worrying about it. Likewise, some nights, like Thursday, you go up against someone who has your number with a starter that doesn't have it, and you lose big. Again, not something you spend a lot of time worrying about.



• Seems a shame, though, to have pumped some life back in to Tampa. The Red Sox seem to be a good luck talisman for them right now. They're 5-2 against Boston, 6-13 against everyone else.



• Their first visit to new Yankee Stadium this week.



• Brad Penny had a very good start on Sunday, following up a disaster start on Tuesday. It is, I think, important to note that the disaster start on Tuesday was seriously abetted by the defense. There were double play balls in both the second and third innings on which they failed to retire anyone, and he could have been out of the third with a 7-1 lead instead of out of the game in the third tied at 7. We don't know, yet, how the Brad Penny experiment will end up working out, but there have been as many positive signs as negative thus far, or nearly so.



• I need to see two more really bad starts from Josh Beckett before I get worked up about him. So far, I'm in the "I'd really like him to perform better" mode, not in the "what the heck is wrong with Beckett" mode.



• Red Sox Player of the Week: Some week, someone else will be their best hitter. So far, it's been Youkilis every week, as he piled another 22 plate appearances of .300/.417/.650/1.067 on to his season line.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: As you might guess from that 6.43 runs allowed/game number, there weren't a lot of strong candidates here. Okajima and Ramirez each threw four scoreless innings in relief, but the prize goes to Tim Wakefield. The start on Monday was fantastic, the one on Saturday kind of shaky but adequate, and he gave them two of their best three starts on the week, and he started two of the three games that they won.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/4/2009

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	5.89	(2)	4.56	(5)	0.615	(1)	17	10	18	9	1
Kansas City	4.76	(10)	4.04	(1)	0.574	(2)	14	11	14	11	0
Boston	5.64	(4)	4.96	(8)	0.559	(3)	14	11	15	10	1
Seattle	4.44	(13)	4.04	(1)	0.543	(4)	14	11	15	10	1
Detroit	5.38	(5)	4.96	(7)	0.537	(5)	13	11	13	11	0
Tampa Bay	4.88	(9)	4.54	(3)	0.534	(6)	14	12	11	15	-3
Texas	5.83	(3)	5.75	(11)	0.507	(7)	12	12	12	12	0
Los Angeles	5.3	(6)	5.52	(10)	0.482	(8)	11	12	10	13	-1
Oakland	4.36	(14)	4.55	(4)	0.481	(9)	11	11	9	13	-2
Chicago	4.5	(11)	4.79	(6)	0.471	(10)	11	13	12	12	1
New York	5.92	(1)	6.38	(13)	0.466	(11)	11	13	13	11	2
Cleveland	5.24	(7)	5.84	(12)	0.451	(12)	11	14	9	16	-2
Minnesota	4.48	(12)	5.52	(9)	0.406	(13)	10	15	12	13	2
Baltimore	5.08	(8)	6.44	(14)	0.393	(14)	10	15	9	16	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Toronto	108	54
Boston	97	65
Seattle	97	65
Kansas City	91	71
Detroit	88	74

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Toronto	101	61
Kansas City	93	69
Boston	92	70
Seattle	89	73
Detroit	87	75

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	6.14	(4)	4	(2)	0.687	(1)	5	2	4	3	-1
New York	7	(1)	5.17	(6)	0.635	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Kansas City	7	(1)	5.29	(7)	0.626	(3)	4	3	5	2	1
Texas	5	(7)	3.83	(1)	0.619	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Seattle	5.17	(6)	4.33	(3)	0.58	(5)	3	3	3	3	0
Los Angeles	6.2	(3)	5.6	(10)	0.546	(6)	3	2	3	2	0
Oakland	5	(7)	5	(4)	0.5	(7)	3	2	2	3	-1
Toronto	5	(7)	5.43	(8)	0.462	(8)	3	4	4	3	1
Minnesota	5.33	(5)	5.83	(12)	0.459	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Cleveland	4.83	(10)	5.67	(11)	0.428	(10)	3	3	2	4	-1
Detroit	4.5	(12)	5.83	(12)	0.383	(11)	2	4	3	3	1
Boston	4.57	(11)	6.43	(14)	0.349	(12)	2	5	3	4	1
Baltimore	3.67	(13)	5.5	(9)	0.323	(13)	2	4	0	6	-2
Chicago	3.33	(14)	5	(4)	0.323	(14)	2	4	3	3	1

Red Sox: April Audit

A one-month snapshot of the Boston Red Sox and the race in the AL East. (Thanks, as always, to David Pinto's invaluable Day by Day Database. If you're a baseball fan and you're not reading Baseball Musings every day, well, you should be...)

Records:

Boston finishes the month of April at 14-8, in first place in the AL East, percentage points ahead of the 15-9 Toronto Blue Jays.

AL East - April 2009

	W	L	GB	%	R/G	RA/G	Pythagorean	Luck
Boston	14	8	-	.636	5.727	4.864	.574	1
Toronto	15	9	-	.625	5.917	4.667	.607	0
New York	12	10	2	.545	5.818	6.182	.472	2
Baltimore	9	13	5	.409	5.273	6.545	.402	0
Tampa Bay	9	14	5.5	.391	4.783	4.478	.530	-3

• The Red Sox started the month at 2-6, and finished it 1-2. In between, of course, they won 11 straight. They've compiled the best record in the division without necessarily playing the best ball, but I began the season thinking them the best team in the East, and nothing that's happened so far has altered that opinion.



• The Blue Jays have played very well. On a strict runs scored/runs allowed basis, they've been the best team in the AL so far. I don't believe that they can maintain either the run prevention or the run scoring at current levels, though, and still see them as battling Baltimore for the fourth spot in the division.



• Tampa was very good last year, but I maintained all season that their record was better than their performance. So far this year, their performance has been better than their record. They've outscored their opponents, and have essentially played like a 12-11 team rather than a 9-14 one. Expect them to finish well ahead of Baltimore and Toronto, and to be in contention for a playoff spot when September arrives.



• The Yankees are outperforming their run differential, but that's a bit misleading. All it takes is one "disaster" start to skew that differential, particularly with such a small sample size, and they've already had 4, three of them from a pitcher coming back from injury who has now been yanked from the rotation. That's not to say that their pitching has been good, but it's been better than it looks from the runs allowed number. How much it has been, and will continue to be, affected by the new Yankee Stadium remains an open question. But, despite the way they looked in getting swept out of Fenway last weekend, this remains a formidable team, and one which should be battling for a post-season berth all year.



• Baltimore is showing signs of life, for the first time in a decade, but they aren't ready to play with the big boys in this division. If things break right, they could compete with Toronto for fourth, but it's very difficult to imagine a higher finish than that.

Offense:

This chart contains some standard offensive numbers and a couple of more advanced metrics. The last two columns are Bill James' Runs Created, and Runs Created per 25 outs, an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would score with nine hitters performing the way that hitter performed. (The fact that it can end up negative is, indeed, an indicators that these are estimates.)

Red Sox Offense - April 2009

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Kevin Youkilis	21	21	76	20	30	8	0	5	15	14	1	0	.395	.505	.697	1.203	23.7	12.3
Jason Bay	22	22	71	19	23	5	1	5	19	23	2	0	.324	.490	.634	1.123	22.6	11.5
Mike Lowell	21	21	84	12	26	8	1	4	23	3	0	0	.310	.341	.571	.912	13.2	5.1
Jason Varitek	16	16	60	10	15	5	0	4	10	7	0	0	.250	.348	.533	.881	11.4	6.3
Dustin Pedroia	22	22	89	17	25	7	0	1	7	11	3	3	.281	.369	.393	.762	11.3	3.8
Jacoby Ellsbury	22	21	94	12	27	3	0	1	9	5	10	2	.287	.320	.351	.671	10.7	3.6
J.D. Drew	19	17	64	11	15	6	1	3	10	11	0	1	.234	.347	.500	.847	10.0	4.7
David Ortiz	22	22	87	10	20	7	1	0	12	8	0	1	.230	.290	.333	.623	8.6	3.0
Nick Green	18	15	51	7	14	5	0	1	7	1	0	1	.275	.351	.431	.782	7.6	5.0
Jonathan Van Every	5	1	5	1	2	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	.400	.571	1.000	1.571	2.4	20.2
Jeff Bailey	4	3	10	3	2	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	.200	.333	.500	.833	1.8	5.5
Julio Lugo	3	2	6	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.333	.500	.333	.833	1.3	8.3
Rocco Baldelli	5	4	13	2	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.231	.286	.231	.516	.9	2.1
George Kottaras	7	6	17	1	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	.118	.238	.176	.415	.4	.6
Gil Velazquez	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	-2.5
Chris Carter	4	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.5	-2.1
Jed Lowrie	5	5	18	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.056	.150	.056	.206	-.6	-1.0
Team Totals	221	198	752	126	207	55	4	26	121	95	16	8	.275	.364	.463	.827	123.6	5.3

The Red Sox are currently 4th in the AL in offense, averaging 5.73 runs/game.

• The Red Sox offense is up from last year. They're hitting, as a team, .275/.364/.463/.827 vs. the .280/.358/.447/.805 that they hit last year. They're on a pace to score 927 runs vs. the 845 that they hit last year. Offensive levels in the AL in general appear to be up at this point, but it's impossible to say for sure what the season-long run scoring environment will be. I had the Red Sox at 853 runs on the season, and I'm now thinking that 875 or 880 may be the right number. I don't think that they're going to score 927, because I expect Youkilis, Bay and Varitek to drop more than Ortiz, Pedroia and Ellsbury pick up.



• Kevin Youkilis had a monster month.



• The Ortiz numbers are chilling. The team is 4th in the AL in runs/game, and its number 3 hitter and DH is hitting .230/.290/.333/.623 with no home runs. The big question is, of course, is this a "slump" or is this a real change in fundamental performance level? Certainly, good hitters can have bad 80 at-bat stretches. But this is an extremely bad stretch, with no strong recent performance to alleviate the concern. I certainly don't think that this represents a real performance level. But it is not inconcievable that the new "real performance level" is mediocre. This is the biggest source of offensive concern, and the biggest room for improvement going forward.



• Biggest upside surprise: Jason Varitek, who has been very productive thus far. Far more productive than they had any right to reasonably expect. And far more productive than he can be expected to continue.



• Biggest question answered: "Can Mike Lowell come back from his hip surgery and still hit?" Answer: "Yes."



• Jacoby Ellsbury might be the most exciting player in the Major Leagues. And the most frustrating. Because it just isn't all that exciting when he gets to first base and turns right, back to the dugout, which is happening far too often for him to actually be productive. If he can get the On-Base Percentage up to about .350, then he probably does enough to be an adequate lead-off hitter. But he's got a ways to go to get there.



• Jason Bay is not Manny Ramirez, but he's put up a passable imitation thereof for the first month. Not only has he hit the ball well, he's taken a ton of walks. (His career high for walks is 102 - he's currently on a pace to draw nearly 170. Obviously, that's unlikely, but it makes for a very productive month.) And, in the past week, he's hit two monster (in importance) home runs, beating the closer for the Yankees to save a game, and the closer for the Indians to win a game.



• Did I mention that Kevin Youkilis had a monster month?



• Offensive hightlights:
  
  • Dustin Pedroia hitting the second pitch of the season into the Monster Seats.
  
  
  • Ellsbury steals home.
  
  
  • Bay beats Rivera and Wood in the span of four days.
  
  
  • 6 runs scored with two out in the 8th, putting the game away following the 10 inning bullpen effort, to start the winning streak.
  
  
  • Coming back from 7-0 to beat the Orioles.
  
  
  • Coming back from 6-0 to beat A.J. Burnett and the Yankees.
  
  
  • Jonathan Van Every beats the Indians in the 10th with his first ML home run.

Pitching:

The Red Sox finish the month of April 7th in the AL in runs allowed/game, though it was better before last night's 13-0 drubbing at the hands of the Rays.

Red Sox Pitching - April 2009

Player	Games	GS	CG	GF	W	L	WPct	Sv	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	K9	BB9	HR9
Justin Masterson	2	2	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10 2/3	10	2	2	0	3	7	0	0	0	1.6875	5.90625	2.53125	0
Tim Wakefield	4	4	2	0	2	1	0.667	0	0	29	16	6	6	0	12	17	4	0	2	1.86	5.28	3.72	0
Jon Lester	5	5	0	0	1	2	0.333	0	0	30	36	18	18	5	10	33	1	0	1	5.4	9.9	3	1.5
Josh Beckett	5	5	0	0	2	2	0.5	0	0	28 2/3	36	24	23	3	16	31	0	1	0	7.22	9.73	5.02	0.94
Brad Penny	4	4	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17 2/3	24	21	17	5	11	6	1	0	1	8.66	3.06	5.6	2.55
Daisuke Matsuzaka	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6 1/3	14	9	9	3	5	5	1	0	1	12.79	7.11	7.11	4.26
Starters	22	22	2	0	9	6	.600	0	0	122 1/3	136	80	75	16	57	99	7	1	5	5.52	7.28	4.19	1.18
Michael Bowden	1	0	0	0	0	0	-	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9	0	0
Jonathan Van Every	1	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	2/3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.5	0
Manny Delcarmen	10	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13	8	2	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	0	6.92	4.85	0
Ramon Ramirez	10	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	12 1/3	5	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	0	4.38	2.92	0
David H Jones	4	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	5 1/3	3	1	1	1	0	5	0	0	1	1.69	8.44	0	1.69
Jonathan Papelbon	10	0	0	8	0	0	-	6	0	10 1/3	8	2	2	1	6	10	1	0	0	1.74	8.71	5.23	0.87
Takashi Saito	8	0	0	3	0	0	-	2	0	8	11	4	4	2	2	8	0	0	0	4.5	9	2.25	2.25
Justin Masterson	4	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	6	7	3	3	0	1	7	0	0	0	4.5	10.5	1.5	0
Hideki Okajima	12	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	9 2/3	8	6	6	2	7	12	1	0	0	5.59	11.17	6.52	1.86
Javier Lopez	11	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	7 2/3	13	9	8	0	8	3	2	0	1	9.39	3.52	9.39	0
Bullpen	71	0	0	20	5	2	.714	8	0	75	64	27	24	6	36	63	6	0	2	2.88	7.56	4.32	.72
Total	93	22	2	20	14	8	.636	8	0	197 1/3	200	107	99	22	93	162	13	1	7	4.52	7.39	4.24	1.00

• The Good - The bullpen has been as advertised. Deep, and filled with pitchers who strike batters out. Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen combined to throw 25 1/3 April innings without allowing an earned run. Tim Wakefield is on one of his upside runs, and has been far and away their most effective starter.



• The Bad - The starting pitching has been less than stellar. With an ERA of 5.52 and fewer than 6 innings per start, it's a good thing that the bullpen has been special, because they'd have had a significantly less successful month with an average 'pen.



• The Ugly - Three-fifths of the rotation, the first, third and fifth starters, have made a total of 11 starts with an ERA of 8.37.



• Read that last one again. If you'd known before the month started that Beckett, Matsuzaka and Penny would combine for 11 starts and an ERA of 8.37, would you have thought that 14-8 was feasible? No, 8-14 sounds more likely. It really is an almost miraculous month when looked at that way.

Odds and Ends:

• Twelve games at home (10-2), ten on the road (4-6). They had a huge home-road discrepency last year, and it has continued through the first month of this season. They'll probably win more at home than on the road again, but they certainly won't finish with a difference as big as it looks right now.



• It's hard to tell, at this point, how the competition has been. Certainly, the teams that were expected to be good (Yankees, Rays, A's, Angels, Indians) have underperformed thus far. How much of that is inherent weakness, how much is just poor timing, and how much is the fact that they've played Boston is impossible to know.



• They've already finished one of their two trips to the west coast, and the next one's coming up. They'll actually be done in the Pacific time zone on May 17. When the dog days arrive, it'll probably be helpful to have no cross-country flights.



• Prop bets that might have made you a lot of money a month ago:
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jason varitek
  
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jacoby Ellsbury
  
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jonathan Van Every
  
  
  • Wakefield April ERA > 6 runs lower than Beckett April ERA
  
  
  • Innings pitched in April - Hunter Jones + Michael Bowden vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Wait 'til next year!

And the curtain rings down on the 2008 baseball season for the Boston Red Sox...

• Another excellent year, and the organization looks strong for years to come. While the outcome is disappointing, Red Sox fans should look at this season as another success. What you want is an organization that's going to get your team into the playoffs consistently, with a chance to win it all. That's what we've got right now, and we should be rejoicing over it.



• Obviously, Red Sox fans wanted it to go the other way. For non-Red Sox fans of baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays are the best story since the 2004 Red Sox. I said back in May that the team they most reminded me of was the 1967 Red Sox. A group of young, good players - that's the kind of team that makes big leaps record-wise. I didn't expect their pitching to be as good as it was, but that's a strong team, and should be for the next few years.



• Memo to anyone that wants to make the "Hey, the Rays payroll was only x and the Red Sox payroll was 3x, so the Rays were lots, lots better and smarter" argument, don't bother. The Rays payroll is lower, not because Boston's overpaying lots of players, but because Tampa's underpaying lots of players. And they're underpaying lots of players because the players haven't done anything in the past, or they're just starting their Major League careers. If you finish last every year and get to pick first, you get to accumulate young talent (Longoria, Upton) that the Red Sox won't get a chance to acquire until they're older and much, much more expensive. That's life. Most "the team was really bad for a long time than took a big leap forward" teams are going to be far less expensive than "consistenly excellent for a long time" teams. That's the way the system works. Tampa's had a very well run organization for the past few years - to use the payroll as an argument that they're better run than the Red Sox would be a mistake.



• I think that Boston was a better team than Tampa this year. Not a lot better, but better. I'm not sure that they were better when the playoffs started. Not having Lowell, and having only a shadow of Beckett - that makes a huge difference.



• It's not Terry Francona's fault that they lost, but I don't think he had a great series. In particular, there's just no excuse for Varitek making the third out of the seventh inning last night with the tying run at third base. I know that everyone loves him. I know that he had a big hit on Saturday night. But he's had an absolutely awful year, and it was imperative to put someone up at the plate with a better chance of getting a hit, or at least not making an out, than him. They took a third catcher, instead of a useful bat, then had no bat to use for the catcher. But Casey, Lowrie - anyone - would have been a better option there.



• "Wait 'til next year" has a completely different feel since 2004...

Tampa goes up 3-1

So Boston's down 3-1 in the ALCS. I do not feel this the way I once would have. I'm older, and my perspective has changed. The Red Sox have won the World Series twice recently. And they've got a management team that understands how to use its (formidable) resources in a game where 4 out of 14 teams makes the playoffs every year. So if they lose tomorrow, there's every reason to think that they'll be back in the post-season next year, and the year after that. So my angst is minimal.

Not to say that the last couple of games have been enjoyable. They have not. It's no fun to be out of it before it starts, and that's the way the last couple have felt. But if the ride is over for this year, it's been a good ride, and, while there will be, as there always is, some player turnover, the ride isn't over for this basic team. Next year's Red Sox, with Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Ortiz, Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Bay, Drew and others, will almost certainly be playing October baseball again.

And there's no reason to think that they CAN'T win this series. After all, their last seven ALCS games have come in "lose and go home" situations, and they're 7-0. (Time for the old "now they've got the Rays just where they want them!") They're extremely unlikely to win out again, but that's life.

I think that this is an appropriate time to quote something that a wise (ha!) man wrote just about a year (actually, exactly 52 weeks) ago:

Francona managed game 2 just fine, he managed game 3 just fine, he managed game 4 just fine. The players haven't gotten the job done - that's life - it happens. It's baseball. The idea that this 7 game series tells us anything about these teams that the 162 games of the regular season didn't is laughable. It determines a "champion" but it doesn't pick the best team - just the one who plays the best in 4 of 7. It is frustrating, and we would much rather see them win than lose, but the other team gets paid, too, and sometimes that's just what happens. The Red Sox certainly aren't out of this series, but the odds of them winning are not good. Whether they come back and win, or go down in game 5, this is an excellent team, with a good manager, that had a very good year. Winning the World Series is special and important, but the post-season is a crapshoot - the organization has to think in terms of putting together a team that can get there consistently, because that's how you win World Series - you get to the post-season and have a good run at the right time.

Really, I've got nothing to add to that...

Tampa 9, Boston 8

A couple of quick notes:

• I just finished watching the game. Sort of. It ran so long that, despite the fact I told my DVR to record two hours past the 11:30 program end, I missed the last play. Not that I wanted to see it.



• I groaned when they said that Timlin was warming up. I think he's done, and shouldn't be on the roster.



• I'm a big Francona fan, but he had a bad night last night*. I thought it was a mistake to send Beckett back out for the 5th, and I cannot understand why Masterson only pitched 2/3 of an inning. This is a kid who started the year as a starter, he and Papelbon are the last good relievers available, the game is tied in the 8th - there's no telling how long it's going to go, and you're going to burn Papelbon with Masterson having only retired two batters? Mistake.



• It would have been less frustrating if they hadn't tied the game in the 8th...

* - I don't criticize the manager - ever - after the fact. These were criticisms of the moves that I made AT THE TIME. Criticizing moves just because they didn't work is unfair. I criticize moves that I thought bad before knowing the outcomes.

MLB Playoff Predictions

I'd like to begin with a new acronym, to cut down on the number of times that I have to repeat certain comments.

Any Thing Can Happen In A Short Series
ATCHIASS

You'll see it again...

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox

I want to reiterate my fundamental position that a 5-7 game series tells you nothing about the relative virtues of the competing teams. I'd expect the significantly better team to win 3 of 5 significantly less than 100% of the time. Either team could win this series. Either team could lose this series. Either team could sweep this series. That goes for all the rest of them, too.

ATCHIASS

That said...

I hold these truths to be self-evident:

1. The Boston Red Sox are a better team than the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.


2. That fact and $700 billion would get them a bailout of the US financial system.


3. It won't get them into the ALCS.

The Angels won 100 games, the Red Sox 95. Even more telling, the Angels beat the Red Sox in 8 of the 9 games played between the two teams this year. How on earth can I say that the Red Sox are a better team?

1) They scored more runs and
2) they allowed fewer runs while
3) playing a tougher schedule

Baseball Prospectus does some standings based on not only runs scored and allowed, but adjusted for the opponents and the components* of run scoring and allowing. They think that these standings are a better representation of the quality of the teams in baseball. Boston's 3rd order record was 102-60. The Angel's was 84-78, worse than the top four teams in the AL East.

Of course, that fact and $700 billion would get them a bailout of the US financial system.

I've written weekly about the Pythagorean projection of season results, and the Angels have overperformed their projection by a historically significant amount. In the history of Major League baseball, two (2) teams (the 1905 Detroit Tigers and the 2004 NY Yankees [anyone remember what ended up happening to them?]) have had larger gaps between their actual and expected won/loss record. The Angels won 100 games while outscoring their opponents by 68 runs. The previous worst run differential for a 100-win team was 89, by the 2004 NY Yankees.

Another way to look at it is that the Angels averaged .42 runs per game more than their opposition. They are the 24th team in history to have a run differential of between .41 and .43 runs per game. The previous 23 averaged a schedule-adjusted 88 wins, with a high of 96 and a low of 82. If you calculate the average and standard deviation and the z-scores, you see that ~71% of the teams were within +- 1 standard deviation of the mean. ~91% were within 2. If you put together a bar chart, you get something that looks suspiciously like the normal bell curve. In other words, the statistical evidence suggests that teams outscoring their opponents by 68 runs over a 162 game season win 88 games, plus or minus. Plus or minus what? Random variation. "Luck."

So one of two things is the case. Either a) the Angels are constructed and manned in such a way as to render previous conceptions of the relationship between run differential and winning percentage meaningless or b) they had a historically fluky lucky won/loss record.

I'm inclined to the latter.

The Red Sox, of course, outscored their opponents by 151 runs, far and away the best in the AL. They were projected to win 96 games and won 95. The Angels were projected to win 88 and won 100. How did that happen? The Angels won the vast majority of the games in which luck was a bigger factor than relative team quality.

Let's think about this for a moment. Is anyone shocked when a good team loses to a bad team in a game in July? Of course not - it's baseball, and people recognize that one game is meaningless in determining team quality. But over the course of 162 games, we get a pretty good idea, from their performance (not just the won/loss record) which is the better team. There's no one who seriously doubts that the 2008 Dodgers were better than the 2008 Giants, right? But those teams split 18 games. So we don't focus on one month, or one week, or one day, recognizing that, as the samples build, we see what teams are. Over the long haul. There's too much variation, too many bounces of the ball that can go the wrong way, to decide who's better over the course of a week.

Likewise, the closer the game, the more room there is for a bounce, a bloop that falls or a rocket right at a fielder, to impact the outcome. Good teams win big when their talent has good days and a bad team's players have off days. When the good team's players have off days and the bad team's players have good days, things get close. One and two run games tell you less about a team's quality than bigger differentials, because there's more "luck" involved.

In games decided by one or two runs this year, Los Angeles was 61-28 (.685). Boston was 34-33 (.507).
In games decided by three runs or more, Los Angeles was 39-34 (.534). Boston was 61-34 (.642).

That's how on earth I can say that the Red Sox are a better team than the Angels. And they could get swept out of the playoffs over the weekend, and I'll still be saying it on Monday.

Objective rankings

In one of his abstracts, Bill James produced a play-off predictor system, based on the playoff that had occurred up to that point. Some of it makes sense, some doesn't, and I'm sure that it's less relevant than it was. But it is kind of a fun toy, so here it is, Red Sox vs. Angels:

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (LAA - 10)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (BOS - 3)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (LAA - 14)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (BOS - 12)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (BOS - 10)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (LAA - 8)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (BOS - 8)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (LAA - 7)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (BOS - 7)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (BOS - 19)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (LAA - 15)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or
went further (BOS - 12)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (LAA - 12)

BOS - 83, LAA - 66

The Bill James Playoff predictor likes the Red Sox in this series.

So do I.

Baseball Prospectus has another curve-fitting exercise they call the "secret sauce" ranking. This looks at teams' ranks in three sabermetric categories, with the overall higher ranked team predicted to have better post-season success. As it's a sum-of-ranks rating, lower is better.

Boston (15) over LAA (19)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

The gap on paper between these two teams is not as great as the gap on paper between Boston and Los Angeles. Tampa was better than Chicago, but not by as much as the 8 game difference in the standings would make it appear. If you care about things like playoff experience, Chicago's got a lot more of it. Of course, many people expected Tampa to fold down the stretch, and they did nothing of the sort. Chicago's got a better offense, the Rays have done a better job preventing runs from scoring. It still sort of seems as if the Tampa bullpen's done it with smoke, mirrors, baling wire and duct tape. Garza's been very good, but Kazmir's varied between excellent and "can't throw a strike."

Objective rankings

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (TB - 16)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (CHI - 3)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (TB - 14)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (TB - 12)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (CHI - 10)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (TB - 8)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (TB - 8)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (CHI - 7)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (TB - 7)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (TB - 19)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (TB - 15)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or
went further (CHI - 12)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (TB - 12)

TB - 111, CHI - 44

Tampa Bay (32) ties Chicago (32)

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

If any series looks a mismatch, it's this one. The Secret Sauce says it's a blowout, James PP says advantage Cubs but not a big one. ATCHIASS, but these two teams are not of similar quality. Joe Torre's drawn praise, but for what, I'm not sure. Most people were predicting the Dodgers to win 90 games and the West before the season started. I don't see any great accomplishment in winning 84 and the West. There are seven teams with better records who are golfing already. The Cubs, on the other hand, led the world in run differential, and led the NL from start to finish. They scored 155 more runs than the Dodgers, and allowed 23 more.

But...ATCHIASS

Objective rankings

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (CHC - 26)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (CHC - 3)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (LAD - 14)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (LAD - 12)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (CHC - 10)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (CHC - 8)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (CHC - 8)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (LAD - 7)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (CHC - 7)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (LAD - 19)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (LAD - 15)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or
went further (CHC - 12)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (LAD - 0)

CHC - 86, LAD - 67


Secret Sauce:

Chicago (19) over Los Angeles (52)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Both of these teams closed strong to leave the Mets on the outside looking in. Sabathia didn't have much left when the Indians got to the ALCS last year, and the Brewers are going to go as far as he can take them.

Objective rankings

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (PHI - 4)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (PHI - 3)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (PHI - 14)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (PHI - 12)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (PHI - 10)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (MIL - 8)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (PHI - 8)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (MIL - 7)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (PHI - 7)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (PHI - 19)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (MIL - 15)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or
went further (PHI - 12)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (PHI - 12)

PHI - 113, MIL - 30


Secret Sauce:

Milwaukee (38) over Philadelphia (40)

Picks

I want to reiterate my fundamental position that a 5-7 game series tells you nothing about the relative virtues of the competing teams. I'd expect the significantly better team to win 3 of 5 significantly less than 100% of the time. Either team could win this series. Either team could lose this series. Either team could sweep this series. That goes for all the rest of them, too.

ATCHIASS

My baseball pundit contract requires, though, that I make predictions. This enables me to gloat about things I get right. Anything I get wrong, well, there are sure to be mitigating circumstances that we'll enable me to claim victory on them, too. ;-) (In that sense, it's kind of like the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - in any cases where my predictions differ from actual reality, it's reality that's got it wrong...)

So here they are - the Lyford predictions for the ALDS and NLDS Series:

Boston over Los Angeles of Anaheim
Tampa Bay over Chicago
Philadelphia over Milwaukee
Chicago over Los Angeles


("Three favorites and your hometown team? Going way out on a limb, there, huh?" To which I respond, "Hey, I just calls 'em the way I sees 'em...")





* - Why do they look at "components" of run-scoring? Because there is so much "luck" involved in the game. A pitcher who strikes out three batters in an inning in which he allows three walks and a home run may give up 1, 2, 3 or 4 runs. For the offense, the HR and walks are all good outcomes of the pitcher/batter confrontation, the strike outs are bad outcomes, but the order in which they occur is critical to their applied value. Every good outcome has an inherent value. A walk puts a runner on base, makes a pitcher throw more pitches and gives another batter a chance to hit. Whether the inherent value contributes to any actual or applied value depends on order.

The same thing applies to teams as well. A team that scores 4 runs 3 times and 2 runs 3 times in a six game stretch, while allowing 3 runs three times and five runs three times might be 3-3 or 6-0. It's all about scoring big runs when your pitchers aren't pitching well, and pitching well in games when you aren't scoring much. To the extent that teams have shown that tendency or "ability," it's not consistent year-to-year, or even

Having accepted that, the way we look at players and teams hinges on a mindset.

• A: Some players/teams are inherently "clutch," that is, they demonstrate a repeatable ability to perform better in "key" situations, and therefore produce results which exceed the value expected from the components pieces of their offensive events, or runs scored and runs allowed.


• B: Everyone who makes it to the Major Leagues has had to perform in clutch situations many times, and has demonstrated an ability to perform in situations of mental stress. There are no players who have demonstrated a statistically significant repeatable ability to increase their performance in "key" situations. Therefore, there is no need to discard the null hypothesis, which is that team and player results are built upon a foundation of raw performance, and vary according to a certain amount of "luck."

I hold with position B.

Congratulations, Tampa Bay Rays

Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays on winning the 2008 AL East division championship. They accomplished that with their 10-3 win over the Red Sox in Tampa last night*. In their 11th year of existence, they not only win more than 70 games for the first time, their first finish higher than 4th (and they'd only done that once) is a first place finish. That's quite an accomplishment and a big step to take in one year. Many people expected them to be much better this year, but not many expected this.


* - What's that? The race isn't over? Well, technically, that's true. It's pretty darn close to it, though. The lead in the division is two games, but the effective lead is bigger. For one thing, the lead is three in the loss column, and that was Boston's last opportunity to contribute to any Rays losses. For another, that win last night clinched the season series between the two teams for the Rays. Given that they'll both be in the playoffs, that means that if they finish tied, Tampa wins the East. Right now, Boston has 10 games left, Tampa 12. In order to win the division, the Sox need to lose four fewer than Tampa the rest of the way to win the East. If Boston goes 7-3, Tampa only needs 6-6 to win. The Red Sox haven't mathematically clinched, but they will have in the next few days, and resting players and setting up the pitching are more important than winning the East. So it could still happen, but I think it extremely unlikely. I think Tampa's win last night was the effective clincher.

Striking out the devil...

Well, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are so serious about the dropping of "Devil" that they've even asked the invaluable David Pinto to pony up.

No word on whether "Tampa Bay Fightin' Seaweed" is still acceptable...