Red Sox: April Audit

A one-month snapshot of the Boston Red Sox and the race in the AL East. (Thanks, as always, to David Pinto's invaluable Day by Day Database. If you're a baseball fan and you're not reading Baseball Musings every day, well, you should be...)

Records:

Boston finishes the month of April at 14-8, in first place in the AL East, percentage points ahead of the 15-9 Toronto Blue Jays.

AL East - April 2009

	W	L	GB	%	R/G	RA/G	Pythagorean	Luck
Boston	14	8	-	.636	5.727	4.864	.574	1
Toronto	15	9	-	.625	5.917	4.667	.607	0
New York	12	10	2	.545	5.818	6.182	.472	2
Baltimore	9	13	5	.409	5.273	6.545	.402	0
Tampa Bay	9	14	5.5	.391	4.783	4.478	.530	-3

• The Red Sox started the month at 2-6, and finished it 1-2. In between, of course, they won 11 straight. They've compiled the best record in the division without necessarily playing the best ball, but I began the season thinking them the best team in the East, and nothing that's happened so far has altered that opinion.



• The Blue Jays have played very well. On a strict runs scored/runs allowed basis, they've been the best team in the AL so far. I don't believe that they can maintain either the run prevention or the run scoring at current levels, though, and still see them as battling Baltimore for the fourth spot in the division.



• Tampa was very good last year, but I maintained all season that their record was better than their performance. So far this year, their performance has been better than their record. They've outscored their opponents, and have essentially played like a 12-11 team rather than a 9-14 one. Expect them to finish well ahead of Baltimore and Toronto, and to be in contention for a playoff spot when September arrives.



• The Yankees are outperforming their run differential, but that's a bit misleading. All it takes is one "disaster" start to skew that differential, particularly with such a small sample size, and they've already had 4, three of them from a pitcher coming back from injury who has now been yanked from the rotation. That's not to say that their pitching has been good, but it's been better than it looks from the runs allowed number. How much it has been, and will continue to be, affected by the new Yankee Stadium remains an open question. But, despite the way they looked in getting swept out of Fenway last weekend, this remains a formidable team, and one which should be battling for a post-season berth all year.



• Baltimore is showing signs of life, for the first time in a decade, but they aren't ready to play with the big boys in this division. If things break right, they could compete with Toronto for fourth, but it's very difficult to imagine a higher finish than that.

Offense:

This chart contains some standard offensive numbers and a couple of more advanced metrics. The last two columns are Bill James' Runs Created, and Runs Created per 25 outs, an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would score with nine hitters performing the way that hitter performed. (The fact that it can end up negative is, indeed, an indicators that these are estimates.)

Red Sox Offense - April 2009

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Kevin Youkilis	21	21	76	20	30	8	0	5	15	14	1	0	.395	.505	.697	1.203	23.7	12.3
Jason Bay	22	22	71	19	23	5	1	5	19	23	2	0	.324	.490	.634	1.123	22.6	11.5
Mike Lowell	21	21	84	12	26	8	1	4	23	3	0	0	.310	.341	.571	.912	13.2	5.1
Jason Varitek	16	16	60	10	15	5	0	4	10	7	0	0	.250	.348	.533	.881	11.4	6.3
Dustin Pedroia	22	22	89	17	25	7	0	1	7	11	3	3	.281	.369	.393	.762	11.3	3.8
Jacoby Ellsbury	22	21	94	12	27	3	0	1	9	5	10	2	.287	.320	.351	.671	10.7	3.6
J.D. Drew	19	17	64	11	15	6	1	3	10	11	0	1	.234	.347	.500	.847	10.0	4.7
David Ortiz	22	22	87	10	20	7	1	0	12	8	0	1	.230	.290	.333	.623	8.6	3.0
Nick Green	18	15	51	7	14	5	0	1	7	1	0	1	.275	.351	.431	.782	7.6	5.0
Jonathan Van Every	5	1	5	1	2	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	.400	.571	1.000	1.571	2.4	20.2
Jeff Bailey	4	3	10	3	2	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	.200	.333	.500	.833	1.8	5.5
Julio Lugo	3	2	6	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.333	.500	.333	.833	1.3	8.3
Rocco Baldelli	5	4	13	2	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.231	.286	.231	.516	.9	2.1
George Kottaras	7	6	17	1	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	.118	.238	.176	.415	.4	.6
Gil Velazquez	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	-2.5
Chris Carter	4	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.5	-2.1
Jed Lowrie	5	5	18	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.056	.150	.056	.206	-.6	-1.0
Team Totals	221	198	752	126	207	55	4	26	121	95	16	8	.275	.364	.463	.827	123.6	5.3

The Red Sox are currently 4th in the AL in offense, averaging 5.73 runs/game.

• The Red Sox offense is up from last year. They're hitting, as a team, .275/.364/.463/.827 vs. the .280/.358/.447/.805 that they hit last year. They're on a pace to score 927 runs vs. the 845 that they hit last year. Offensive levels in the AL in general appear to be up at this point, but it's impossible to say for sure what the season-long run scoring environment will be. I had the Red Sox at 853 runs on the season, and I'm now thinking that 875 or 880 may be the right number. I don't think that they're going to score 927, because I expect Youkilis, Bay and Varitek to drop more than Ortiz, Pedroia and Ellsbury pick up.



• Kevin Youkilis had a monster month.



• The Ortiz numbers are chilling. The team is 4th in the AL in runs/game, and its number 3 hitter and DH is hitting .230/.290/.333/.623 with no home runs. The big question is, of course, is this a "slump" or is this a real change in fundamental performance level? Certainly, good hitters can have bad 80 at-bat stretches. But this is an extremely bad stretch, with no strong recent performance to alleviate the concern. I certainly don't think that this represents a real performance level. But it is not inconcievable that the new "real performance level" is mediocre. This is the biggest source of offensive concern, and the biggest room for improvement going forward.



• Biggest upside surprise: Jason Varitek, who has been very productive thus far. Far more productive than they had any right to reasonably expect. And far more productive than he can be expected to continue.



• Biggest question answered: "Can Mike Lowell come back from his hip surgery and still hit?" Answer: "Yes."



• Jacoby Ellsbury might be the most exciting player in the Major Leagues. And the most frustrating. Because it just isn't all that exciting when he gets to first base and turns right, back to the dugout, which is happening far too often for him to actually be productive. If he can get the On-Base Percentage up to about .350, then he probably does enough to be an adequate lead-off hitter. But he's got a ways to go to get there.



• Jason Bay is not Manny Ramirez, but he's put up a passable imitation thereof for the first month. Not only has he hit the ball well, he's taken a ton of walks. (His career high for walks is 102 - he's currently on a pace to draw nearly 170. Obviously, that's unlikely, but it makes for a very productive month.) And, in the past week, he's hit two monster (in importance) home runs, beating the closer for the Yankees to save a game, and the closer for the Indians to win a game.



• Did I mention that Kevin Youkilis had a monster month?



• Offensive hightlights:
  
  • Dustin Pedroia hitting the second pitch of the season into the Monster Seats.
  
  
  • Ellsbury steals home.
  
  
  • Bay beats Rivera and Wood in the span of four days.
  
  
  • 6 runs scored with two out in the 8th, putting the game away following the 10 inning bullpen effort, to start the winning streak.
  
  
  • Coming back from 7-0 to beat the Orioles.
  
  
  • Coming back from 6-0 to beat A.J. Burnett and the Yankees.
  
  
  • Jonathan Van Every beats the Indians in the 10th with his first ML home run.

Pitching:

The Red Sox finish the month of April 7th in the AL in runs allowed/game, though it was better before last night's 13-0 drubbing at the hands of the Rays.

Red Sox Pitching - April 2009

Player	Games	GS	CG	GF	W	L	WPct	Sv	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	K9	BB9	HR9
Justin Masterson	2	2	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10 2/3	10	2	2	0	3	7	0	0	0	1.6875	5.90625	2.53125	0
Tim Wakefield	4	4	2	0	2	1	0.667	0	0	29	16	6	6	0	12	17	4	0	2	1.86	5.28	3.72	0
Jon Lester	5	5	0	0	1	2	0.333	0	0	30	36	18	18	5	10	33	1	0	1	5.4	9.9	3	1.5
Josh Beckett	5	5	0	0	2	2	0.5	0	0	28 2/3	36	24	23	3	16	31	0	1	0	7.22	9.73	5.02	0.94
Brad Penny	4	4	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17 2/3	24	21	17	5	11	6	1	0	1	8.66	3.06	5.6	2.55
Daisuke Matsuzaka	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6 1/3	14	9	9	3	5	5	1	0	1	12.79	7.11	7.11	4.26
Starters	22	22	2	0	9	6	.600	0	0	122 1/3	136	80	75	16	57	99	7	1	5	5.52	7.28	4.19	1.18
Michael Bowden	1	0	0	0	0	0	-	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9	0	0
Jonathan Van Every	1	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	2/3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	13.5	0
Manny Delcarmen	10	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13	8	2	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	0	6.92	4.85	0
Ramon Ramirez	10	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	12 1/3	5	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	0	4.38	2.92	0
David H Jones	4	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	5 1/3	3	1	1	1	0	5	0	0	1	1.69	8.44	0	1.69
Jonathan Papelbon	10	0	0	8	0	0	-	6	0	10 1/3	8	2	2	1	6	10	1	0	0	1.74	8.71	5.23	0.87
Takashi Saito	8	0	0	3	0	0	-	2	0	8	11	4	4	2	2	8	0	0	0	4.5	9	2.25	2.25
Justin Masterson	4	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	6	7	3	3	0	1	7	0	0	0	4.5	10.5	1.5	0
Hideki Okajima	12	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	9 2/3	8	6	6	2	7	12	1	0	0	5.59	11.17	6.52	1.86
Javier Lopez	11	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	7 2/3	13	9	8	0	8	3	2	0	1	9.39	3.52	9.39	0
Bullpen	71	0	0	20	5	2	.714	8	0	75	64	27	24	6	36	63	6	0	2	2.88	7.56	4.32	.72
Total	93	22	2	20	14	8	.636	8	0	197 1/3	200	107	99	22	93	162	13	1	7	4.52	7.39	4.24	1.00

• The Good - The bullpen has been as advertised. Deep, and filled with pitchers who strike batters out. Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen combined to throw 25 1/3 April innings without allowing an earned run. Tim Wakefield is on one of his upside runs, and has been far and away their most effective starter.



• The Bad - The starting pitching has been less than stellar. With an ERA of 5.52 and fewer than 6 innings per start, it's a good thing that the bullpen has been special, because they'd have had a significantly less successful month with an average 'pen.



• The Ugly - Three-fifths of the rotation, the first, third and fifth starters, have made a total of 11 starts with an ERA of 8.37.



• Read that last one again. If you'd known before the month started that Beckett, Matsuzaka and Penny would combine for 11 starts and an ERA of 8.37, would you have thought that 14-8 was feasible? No, 8-14 sounds more likely. It really is an almost miraculous month when looked at that way.

Odds and Ends:

• Twelve games at home (10-2), ten on the road (4-6). They had a huge home-road discrepency last year, and it has continued through the first month of this season. They'll probably win more at home than on the road again, but they certainly won't finish with a difference as big as it looks right now.



• It's hard to tell, at this point, how the competition has been. Certainly, the teams that were expected to be good (Yankees, Rays, A's, Angels, Indians) have underperformed thus far. How much of that is inherent weakness, how much is just poor timing, and how much is the fact that they've played Boston is impossible to know.



• They've already finished one of their two trips to the west coast, and the next one's coming up. They'll actually be done in the Pacific time zone on May 17. When the dog days arrive, it'll probably be helpful to have no cross-country flights.



• Prop bets that might have made you a lot of money a month ago:
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jason varitek
  
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jacoby Ellsbury
  
  
  • Home runs in April - David Ortiz vs. Jonathan Van Every
  
  
  • Wakefield April ERA > 6 runs lower than Beckett April ERA
  
  
  • Innings pitched in April - Hunter Jones + Michael Bowden vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Monday morning record chase update

There are several offensive records that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have good-to-excellent chances of breaking. Here's where things stand through 13 games:

Tom Brady and New England Patriots Record Chase

Record:	Current:	Held by:	So far:	Need:	Need to average:
Something shocking would have to happen not to break
Points (team)	556	1998 Minnesota Vikings	503	54	18
TDs (team)	70	Miami Dolphins (1984)	65	6	2
TD passes (QB)	49	Peyton Manning (2004)	45	5	1.67
Likely to be broken
Rating	121.1	Peyton Manning (2004)	123.54
Possible, but not currently on pace
PPG (team)	38.8		38.69	119	39.67
I didn't think so, but now looks possible
Yards passing	5084	Dan Marino (1984)	4095	990	330
Unlikely
Comp %	70.55	Ken Anderson (1982)	70.12

Patriots Monday

• Going to the theatre and going to a sporting event are different experiences. You go to a theater, frequently, and see a work that you already know. You aren't there to learn how it ends, but to appreciate the performances, to see what the artist on stage will come up with on that particular event. You go to a sporting event driven by the thrill of competition - two groups put their best out on the field to determine who walks off the field victorious.
  
  The 2007 Patriots experience has been more of a theatrical performance more often than not. There's only been one game where there was sporting competition in the 4th quarter. The rest of the time, you're watching to see what the artists are going to do. And how they're going to do it. The game last night was decided before the first quarter was open, but you couldn't turn away. The Patriots are like a how-to demonstration right now. "This is how you pass block. This is how you run a passing play. This is how you approach third down. This is how you step up in the pocket. This is how you beat coverage." It is artistry.
  
  It has been unbelievable to watch.
  
  UPDATE: "This isn't an average NFL team blowing out another NFL team. This is one of the great teams of all time, doing work, and it's a pleasure to watch."
  - Michael Holley, WEEI
  
  Couldn't agree more.



• And it should be savored and enjoyed. We're seeing something that has never been seen before, and is unlikely to be seen again. I certainly don't expect to see it again in my lifetime. These are the good old days.



• This may be the first time this has ever been said about a 56-10 game: It was not as close as the final score indicated.
  
  Seriously.
  
  The Patriots scored their last offensive touchdown with over 14 minutes remaining. Brady came out of the game. Their last two offensive drives, both of the drives that Brady played in the second half, took 12 and half minutes, and 22 plays in covering 158 yards. They were killing the clock on the first drive of the second half. There is no way to look at that game and not think that the Patriots could easily have scored 70 had they chosen to.
  
  And Buffalo's lone touchdown came as a result of a fluke/breakdown/scramble third-down conversion, followed by a badly underthrown ball against perfect coverage. A good pass is picked off, but the pass to Parrish was short, and Hobbs wasn't able to react quickly enough to it.
  
  The final differential was 46 - it could have been worse. Much worse.



• Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, the teams with the second and third best point differentials in the NFL, have outscored their opposition by a combined 243 points (124 for the Steelers, 119 for the Colts). The Patriots have outscored theirs by 254.



• The 1985 Chicago Bears, considered by many to be the greatest team of the Super Bowl era, outscored their opposition by 258 points over 16 games. The Patriots, again, have outscored theirs by 254 over 10.



• The NFL record for points in a season is 556, set by the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. The Patriots are currently on a pace to score 658 points and break it by 102, over 18%.
  
  Read that again.
  
  The NFL's been in business for a long time. When the Vikings set that record, they broke the old record, held by the 1983 Redskins, by 15, a little less than 1 point per game. The Patriots are outscoring the 1998 Vikings by over 6 points per game.



• Record watch:
  
  
  

  Patriot (and Brady) Record Chase

  	TD passes	Points (team)	TDs (team)	PPG (team)	Rating	Comp %
  Record	49	556	70	38.8	121.10	70.55
  Current	38	411	54	41.1	133.97	73.96
  Need	12	146	17	211
  Average	2	24.33	2.83	35.17

  
  
  49 TD passes - Peyton Manning, 2004
  556 points - 1998 Minnesota Vikings
  70 Touchdowns - 1984 Miami Dolphins
  38.8 PPG - 1950 Rams
  121.1 passer rating - Peyton Manning, 2004
  70.55 % completion - Ken Anderson, 1982
  
  Some of those (TD passes, points, touchdowns) seem inevitable at this point. The team has to continue performing, but something dramatic and drastic would have have to happen for those records not to fall. Assuming that Brady throws another 150-250 passes, he needs to complete 64%-67% of them to take the completion percentage record. The passer rating is a little bit tougher to project, but he's got some room to perform worse than he has so far and still take it.



• Serious question - what kind of a spread would be required to get you to bet on the Eagles next Sunday night?

Baseball's "Most Impressive" Records

Fantastic piece today from The Baseball Crank, talking about baseball's "most impressive" records. Obviously, any list of this sort is, by its very nature, subjective, but he clearly wasn't tossing darts. There's a lot of analysis, and justification of everything on the list. (For parochial Boston types, there are three Red Sox pitchers on the list, although you might not realize it on a first reading.) But it's the kind of fun list that works for baseball better than any of life's other diversions - I recommend it...