Monday, August 20, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 8/20

Red Sox 4-3. Yankees 4-3. Similar schedules. Advantage goes to the team ahead, which is Boston.

  • They need to have another 5+ win week. They haven't done it in a while, and this is the week to do it.


  • There was a long debate in the Red Sox usenet group just over a year ago about the Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena trade. There were some people who looked at two months of stats from each of the two players and were willing to declare the traded a disaster. Others of us thought that the trade was risky but made sense. But the key point that I kept trying to make was that I evaluated the trade at the time it was made, based on the information available at the time, and wouldn't change my opinion of whether the trade made sense or not based on how it turned out.

    The Eric Gagne trade made sense. It has also, almost certainly, cost them three games directly in the standings. They need to have him pitch well in the post-season on the way to a World Series win for that trade not to turn out disastrously. The trade made sense, it was a good trade, but wow, has it turned out badly so far.


  • Some people are more concerned about the offense than they were before. I'm feeling better about it. Yesterday was frustrating, but they've started to put some pressure on teams late in games, which they really haven't done much this season. This wasn't a great week for the offense, but they were facing some good pitching, too. Somehow, they always end up with Kazmir when they play Tampa, as they will again tonight. But they kept grinding, and took leads late, which they weren't doing earlier.


  • There's a perception that the Red Sox got out to a hot start and have been treading water since then. That's not really true. Over the last 13 weeks, they've had the second-best pythagorean in the AL (behind NY). They've had the 5th best offense and 2nd best pitching/defense. They have underperformed by 3 games so they've played 44-37 (an 88-win pace) instead of 47-34 (a 94-win pace.)


  • But it really is time to start playing better, again.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/20/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.93(1)4.64(8)0.61(1)76487054-6

Boston5.14(3)4.03(1)0.609(2)76487450-2

Los Angeles5.03(4)4.43(5)0.558(3)695472513

Cleveland4.98(6)4.59(7)0.538(4)665768552

Detroit5.58(2)5.14(11)0.538(5)675767570

Toronto4.57(10)4.24(2)0.535(6)66576360-3

Seattle4.99(5)4.87(10)0.512(7)625969527

Minnesota4.46(12)4.35(4)0.511(8)63606261-1

Oakland4.45(13)4.34(3)0.511(9)64616164-3

Baltimore4.63(8)4.57(6)0.506(10)62605765-5

Kansas City4.58(9)4.83(9)0.475(11)58655568-3

Texas4.75(7)5.23(13)0.456(12)56675469-2

Chicago4.28(14)5.21(12)0.411(13)517254693

Tampa Bay4.54(11)6(14)0.375(14)467747761




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9765

Los Angeles9567

Seattle9270

New York9171

Cleveland9072




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9765

Los Angeles9468

New York9369

Seattle9072

Cleveland8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Minnesota3.83(9)2.33(1)0.713(1)42420

Baltimore5.5(1)3.5(6)0.696(2)4233-1

Kansas City5(3)3.43(5)0.666(3)5243-1

Cleveland4(7)2.8(3)0.658(4)32320

Boston4.86(5)3.71(7)0.62(5)43430

Oakland4.71(6)4.14(9)0.559(6)43521

Texas2.83(13)2.5(2)0.557(7)33330

Toronto3.14(12)3(4)0.521(8)43430

New York5(3)5.43(11)0.462(9)34431

Seattle5.17(2)5.67(13)0.458(10)33421

Los Angeles3.57(10)4.71(10)0.376(11)34340

Chicago4(7)6.33(14)0.301(12)2406-2

Detroit3.43(11)5.57(12)0.291(13)25250

Tampa Bay2.17(14)3.83(8)0.26(14)24240

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