Monday, July 30, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 7/30

As frustrating as yesterday was, 5-2 on the road is a good week. A very good week. And they picked up a game on the Yankees, despite NY having an easier schedule. That's a good thing.

  • It looks like only a half game, but one of the Yankee wins was a 2-inning conclusion to a game that they essentially won a month ago against the Orioles. The Red Sox went 5-2 on the week, the Yankees went 4-3. During the games played during the week.


  • Josh Beckett, in his last 3 starts, has gone 8 innings and allowed 2 runs, gone 8 innings and allowed 1 run, and gone 6 innings and allowed 3 runs. The worst of those three starts resulted in a "win" for Beckett, the other two resulted in "losses." I've said it before, I'll say it again - the idea of judging starting pitchers on won/loss record is just silly, and no one would ever propose it today if people hadn't been doing it for a hundred years.


  • This is another week with a big schedule advantage for the Yankees. Boston has three at home against Baltimore and three at Seattle. New York has six at home, against the White Sox and Royals. Frankly, the Red Sox shouldn't expect the Yankees to lose this week, so they really need to go 4-2, at least. But if they can get through the next nine with the lead at 6 or 7, they'll be in good shape, because this may be the worst 9-day stretch of the season from a comparative schedule point of view.


    BostonNY

    BAL - 3CHW - 3

    @SEA - 3KC - 3

    @LAA - 3@TOR - 3



  • Pitching's been very good. Offense is starting to wake up. Still the best team in baseball. This is all good...





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/30/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.16(4)3.95(1)0.62(1)65406441-1

New York5.68(2)4.56(7)0.599(2)63425649-7

Detroit5.82(1)5(11)0.569(3)594560441

Los Angeles5.09(5)4.5(5)0.555(4)574661424

Cleveland5.25(3)4.74(8)0.546(5)574860453

Toronto4.66(11)4.38(3)0.529(6)55495252-3

Minnesota4.71(8)4.53(6)0.518(7)54505351-1

Baltimore4.56(12)4.46(4)0.51(8)53514955-4

Seattle4.89(6)4.83(9)0.506(9)525157465

Oakland4.28(13)4.24(2)0.504(10)53524956-4

Kansas City4.7(9)4.89(10)0.482(11)50544757-3

Texas4.87(7)5.41(13)0.452(12)47584659-1

Chicago4.25(14)5.06(12)0.421(13)446148574

Tampa Bay4.69(10)6.33(14)0.367(14)386639651




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9963

Los Angeles9666

Detroit9369

Cleveland9369

Seattle9072




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9963

Los Angeles9468

Detroit9369

Cleveland9171

New York9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Toronto5.5(7)2(1)0.864(1)5142-1

Boston6(3)3.43(2)0.736(2)52520

Baltimore6.17(2)4.17(3)0.672(3)42521

Los Angeles8.33(1)5.83(10)0.658(4)42420

New York6(3)4.57(5)0.622(5)43531

Kansas City5.14(9)4.43(4)0.568(6)43430

Seattle5.5(7)5.13(7)0.532(7)4435-1

Oakland6(3)6.14(11)0.489(8)34340

Chicago4.88(10)5.25(8)0.466(9)44531

Cleveland3.57(12)4.57(5)0.389(10)3425-1

Detroit6(3)8.25(14)0.358(11)3526-1

Texas3.86(11)5.57(9)0.338(12)25432

Tampa Bay3.33(13)6.67(13)0.22(13)15150

Minnesota2.67(14)6.5(12)0.164(14)15241

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