Monday Pythagorean - 7/30

As frustrating as yesterday was, 5-2 on the road is a good week. A very good week. And they picked up a game on the Yankees, despite NY having an easier schedule. That's a good thing.

• It looks like only a half game, but one of the Yankee wins was a 2-inning conclusion to a game that they essentially won a month ago against the Orioles. The Red Sox went 5-2 on the week, the Yankees went 4-3. During the games played during the week.



• Josh Beckett, in his last 3 starts, has gone 8 innings and allowed 2 runs, gone 8 innings and allowed 1 run, and gone 6 innings and allowed 3 runs. The worst of those three starts resulted in a "win" for Beckett, the other two resulted in "losses." I've said it before, I'll say it again - the idea of judging starting pitchers on won/loss record is just silly, and no one would ever propose it today if people hadn't been doing it for a hundred years.



• This is another week with a big schedule advantage for the Yankees. Boston has three at home against Baltimore and three at Seattle. New York has six at home, against the White Sox and Royals. Frankly, the Red Sox shouldn't expect the Yankees to lose this week, so they really need to go 4-2, at least. But if they can get through the next nine with the lead at 6 or 7, they'll be in good shape, because this may be the worst 9-day stretch of the season from a comparative schedule point of view.
  
  
  

  Boston	NY
  BAL - 3	CHW - 3
  @SEA - 3	KC - 3
  @LAA - 3	@TOR - 3

  
  



• Pitching's been very good. Offense is starting to wake up. Still the best team in baseball. This is all good...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/30/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.16	(4)	3.95	(1)	0.62	(1)	65	40	64	41	-1
New York	5.68	(2)	4.56	(7)	0.599	(2)	63	42	56	49	-7
Detroit	5.82	(1)	5	(11)	0.569	(3)	59	45	60	44	1
Los Angeles	5.09	(5)	4.5	(5)	0.555	(4)	57	46	61	42	4
Cleveland	5.25	(3)	4.74	(8)	0.546	(5)	57	48	60	45	3
Toronto	4.66	(11)	4.38	(3)	0.529	(6)	55	49	52	52	-3
Minnesota	4.71	(8)	4.53	(6)	0.518	(7)	54	50	53	51	-1
Baltimore	4.56	(12)	4.46	(4)	0.51	(8)	53	51	49	55	-4
Seattle	4.89	(6)	4.83	(9)	0.506	(9)	52	51	57	46	5
Oakland	4.28	(13)	4.24	(2)	0.504	(10)	53	52	49	56	-4
Kansas City	4.7	(9)	4.89	(10)	0.482	(11)	50	54	47	57	-3
Texas	4.87	(7)	5.41	(13)	0.452	(12)	47	58	46	59	-1
Chicago	4.25	(14)	5.06	(12)	0.421	(13)	44	61	48	57	4
Tampa Bay	4.69	(10)	6.33	(14)	0.367	(14)	38	66	39	65	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	99	63
Los Angeles	96	66
Detroit	93	69
Cleveland	93	69
Seattle	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	99	63
Los Angeles	94	68
Detroit	93	69
Cleveland	91	71
New York	90	72

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	5.5	(7)	2	(1)	0.864	(1)	5	1	4	2	-1
Boston	6	(3)	3.43	(2)	0.736	(2)	5	2	5	2	0
Baltimore	6.17	(2)	4.17	(3)	0.672	(3)	4	2	5	2	1
Los Angeles	8.33	(1)	5.83	(10)	0.658	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
New York	6	(3)	4.57	(5)	0.622	(5)	4	3	5	3	1
Kansas City	5.14	(9)	4.43	(4)	0.568	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Seattle	5.5	(7)	5.13	(7)	0.532	(7)	4	4	3	5	-1
Oakland	6	(3)	6.14	(11)	0.489	(8)	3	4	3	4	0
Chicago	4.88	(10)	5.25	(8)	0.466	(9)	4	4	5	3	1
Cleveland	3.57	(12)	4.57	(5)	0.389	(10)	3	4	2	5	-1
Detroit	6	(3)	8.25	(14)	0.358	(11)	3	5	2	6	-1
Texas	3.86	(11)	5.57	(9)	0.338	(12)	2	5	4	3	2
Tampa Bay	3.33	(13)	6.67	(13)	0.22	(13)	1	5	1	5	0
Minnesota	2.67	(14)	6.5	(12)	0.164	(14)	1	5	2	4	1