Monday, July 16, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 7/16

Short week in baseball, due to the All Star break. And I was at Karate camp over the weekend, so I saw very little of the limited action.

  • Boston 2-2 vs. Toronto. New York 3-1 vs. Tampa Bay. The lead is 9.


  • Apparently a frustrating weekend for the Red Sox. They scored a lot of runs, but didn't use them efficiently - they won two games by a total of 8 runs, lost 2 games by a total of 2 runs. They outscored the Blue Jays 22-16, but only split the series.


  • Seven games this week, all at home, hosting two of the four worst teams in the AL. This is the kind of schedule where 4-3 isn't really good enough.


  • Josh Beckett has several wins this year in games in which he did not pitch as well as in yesterday's loss. As if we needed more evidence of the silliness of judging starting pitchers on their win-loss records...






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/16/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.02(4)3.98(1)0.605(1)553655360

Detroit5.94(1)4.73(9)0.603(2)543654360

New York5.42(2)4.57(5)0.578(3)51384544-6

Cleveland5.34(3)4.69(8)0.559(4)514054373

Los Angeles4.97(6)4.4(3)0.556(5)514055364

Minnesota4.95(8)4.46(4)0.548(6)50424943-1

Oakland4.25(13)4.09(2)0.518(7)48444448-4

Seattle4.98(5)4.83(10)0.514(8)464351385

Toronto4.74(9)4.64(7)0.51(9)46454546-1

Baltimore4.47(12)4.58(6)0.489(10)44474150-3

Kansas City4.56(11)4.97(12)0.461(11)42493952-3

Texas4.96(7)5.44(13)0.458(12)42493952-3

Chicago4.13(14)4.9(11)0.423(13)385240502

Tampa Bay4.69(10)6.16(14)0.378(14)345735561




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9864

Los Angeles9864

Detroit9765

Cleveland9666

Seattle9369




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9864

Detroit9765

Cleveland9468

Los Angeles9468

Seattle8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Minnesota4.75(7)2.75(1)0.731(1)31401

Boston5.5(3)4(3)0.642(2)3122-1

Los Angeles5(5)3.67(2)0.638(3)21210

New York6(1)4.75(6)0.605(4)22311

Detroit5.75(2)4.75(6)0.587(5)22220

Baltimore5.25(4)4.5(5)0.57(6)22311

Cleveland5(5)4.33(4)0.565(7)21210

Kansas City4.33(11)5(9)0.435(8)12120

Chicago4.5(10)5.25(11)0.43(9)2213-1

Seattle4.75(7)5.75(13)0.413(10)22220

Tampa Bay4.75(7)6(14)0.395(11)2213-1

Texas3.67(13)5(9)0.362(12)12120

Toronto4(12)5.5(12)0.358(13)13221

Oakland2.75(14)4.75(6)0.269(14)1304-1

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