Monday Pythagorean - 7/16

Short week in baseball, due to the All Star break. And I was at Karate camp over the weekend, so I saw very little of the limited action.

• Boston 2-2 vs. Toronto. New York 3-1 vs. Tampa Bay. The lead is 9.



• Apparently a frustrating weekend for the Red Sox. They scored a lot of runs, but didn't use them efficiently - they won two games by a total of 8 runs, lost 2 games by a total of 2 runs. They outscored the Blue Jays 22-16, but only split the series.



• Seven games this week, all at home, hosting two of the four worst teams in the AL. This is the kind of schedule where 4-3 isn't really good enough.



• Josh Beckett has several wins this year in games in which he did not pitch as well as in yesterday's loss. As if we needed more evidence of the silliness of judging starting pitchers on their win-loss records...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/16/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.02	(4)	3.98	(1)	0.605	(1)	55	36	55	36	0
Detroit	5.94	(1)	4.73	(9)	0.603	(2)	54	36	54	36	0
New York	5.42	(2)	4.57	(5)	0.578	(3)	51	38	45	44	-6
Cleveland	5.34	(3)	4.69	(8)	0.559	(4)	51	40	54	37	3
Los Angeles	4.97	(6)	4.4	(3)	0.556	(5)	51	40	55	36	4
Minnesota	4.95	(8)	4.46	(4)	0.548	(6)	50	42	49	43	-1
Oakland	4.25	(13)	4.09	(2)	0.518	(7)	48	44	44	48	-4
Seattle	4.98	(5)	4.83	(10)	0.514	(8)	46	43	51	38	5
Toronto	4.74	(9)	4.64	(7)	0.51	(9)	46	45	45	46	-1
Baltimore	4.47	(12)	4.58	(6)	0.489	(10)	44	47	41	50	-3
Kansas City	4.56	(11)	4.97	(12)	0.461	(11)	42	49	39	52	-3
Texas	4.96	(7)	5.44	(13)	0.458	(12)	42	49	39	52	-3
Chicago	4.13	(14)	4.9	(11)	0.423	(13)	38	52	40	50	2
Tampa Bay	4.69	(10)	6.16	(14)	0.378	(14)	34	57	35	56	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	98	64
Los Angeles	98	64
Detroit	97	65
Cleveland	96	66
Seattle	93	69

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	98	64
Detroit	97	65
Cleveland	94	68
Los Angeles	94	68
Seattle	88	74

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Minnesota	4.75	(7)	2.75	(1)	0.731	(1)	3	1	4	0	1
Boston	5.5	(3)	4	(3)	0.642	(2)	3	1	2	2	-1
Los Angeles	5	(5)	3.67	(2)	0.638	(3)	2	1	2	1	0
New York	6	(1)	4.75	(6)	0.605	(4)	2	2	3	1	1
Detroit	5.75	(2)	4.75	(6)	0.587	(5)	2	2	2	2	0
Baltimore	5.25	(4)	4.5	(5)	0.57	(6)	2	2	3	1	1
Cleveland	5	(5)	4.33	(4)	0.565	(7)	2	1	2	1	0
Kansas City	4.33	(11)	5	(9)	0.435	(8)	1	2	1	2	0
Chicago	4.5	(10)	5.25	(11)	0.43	(9)	2	2	1	3	-1
Seattle	4.75	(7)	5.75	(13)	0.413	(10)	2	2	2	2	0
Tampa Bay	4.75	(7)	6	(14)	0.395	(11)	2	2	1	3	-1
Texas	3.67	(13)	5	(9)	0.362	(12)	1	2	1	2	0
Toronto	4	(12)	5.5	(12)	0.358	(13)	1	3	2	2	1
Oakland	2.75	(14)	4.75	(6)	0.269	(14)	1	3	0	4	-1