Monday, June 25, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 6/25

Out on the road. 4 out of 6, against two of the better NL teams, traveling long distances in between, with one of the losses coming when one of the "aces" gets shelled and has to return home for an MRI. I've said it before, I'll say it again - you keep cranking out 4-2 weeks, you finish with a great record. Any 4-2 week is a good week. Period.

  • The offense continues to be a concern. They're now on a pace to score fewer than 800 runs. Part of that is a result of spending a week in NL parks, one of which is one of the worst hitters parks in baseball. Part of that is having players that aren't hitting, and they've still got too many of those.


  • The good: Alex Cora hit .429/.545/.714 in 10 plate appearances over four games. Varitek had a good week, Manny continues to swing the bat well. Crisp had 11 hits in 26 at-bats, continuing a productive streak that has his season numbers up to "bad" from "hideous."


  • The bad: Ortiz was 3-18. 2 HR, but not much else. Lowell was 2-13, with a big hit yesterday, but nothing else. Pena got some at-bats when Drew rested a quad, and did nothing with them.


  • The ugly: Julio Lugo. 0-18. He's now hitting an almost unbelievable .193/.258/.288/.546 on the season.


  • A week and a half ago, the Yankees had gone on a winning streak that coincided with Boston's first real struggles of the season, and the lead was down to 7 1/2 games. People were suggesting that, at the current rate, NY would be in first place by the 4th of July. I mocked that. "Which rate is that? They've made up 1 game in the last 6 days. Three weeks ago this morning, they were 9 1/2 out, this morning they're 9 1/2 out. Neither of those rates is getting them to first place any time soon...that's what happens when one team has a good week while another has a bad one, which happened a week ago. It's just foolish to read too much into it. The Nationals have made up 2 1/2 games against the Mets over the last 3 weeks, and are now ... 9 1/2 games out. Anyone think that Washington's making a charge? ... I expect that the lead, when we get to July 4th (three weeks from today), will be within about 3 games of where it is now, somewhere between 6 1/2 and 12 1/2." It's now back to 11 1/2, as the Yankees have gone 1-5 on an easier road trip than the one the Red Sox are 4-2 on. And it looks like the July 4 lead is a whole heck-of-a-lot more likely to be greater than 12 1/2 than less than 6 1/2...


  • Great game yesterday, in which the Red Sox once again demonstrated the virtues of plate discipline. Jake Peavy wasn't wild, but the Red Sox were patient, fouled off a lot of pitches, and forced him out of the game after just five, having thrown 111 pitches. Beckett had a great game, just one little rough spot in 8 innings, to run his record to 11-1, as the Red Sox handed Peavy just his 2nd loss of the season.


  • It would not be at all surprising to see those two starters match up again in two weeks in San Francisco.


  • At Seattle for three, then home to an extended stretch of weak competition. Right now, they've got an 11 game lead in the East, 11 1/2 over the Yankees. Given the July schedule, I'll be surprised if they aren't still up by double-digits when August starts.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/25/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.05(6)3.89(2)0.617(1)462848262

Detroit6.09(1)4.7(9)0.616(2)46284529-1

Los Angeles5.17(5)4.13(3)0.601(3)463049273

New York5.45(2)4.6(7)0.577(4)42313637-6

Cleveland5.36(3)4.66(8)0.564(5)423243311

Oakland4.3(13)3.84(1)0.552(6)41333935-2

Minnesota4.78(10)4.49(4)0.528(7)39343835-1

Toronto4.78(9)4.57(5)0.521(8)39353737-2

Seattle5.01(7)5.01(11)0.5(9)363639333

Baltimore4.41(11)4.57(6)0.484(10)36393243-4

Texas5.2(4)5.8(13)0.45(11)34413045-4

Kansas City4.33(12)5.22(12)0.415(12)32443046-2

Tampa Bay4.95(8)6.05(14)0.408(13)304333403

Chicago3.87(14)4.82(10)0.402(14)294229420




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10557

Los Angeles10458

Detroit9963

Cleveland9468

Seattle8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10260

Los Angeles10161

Detroit9963

Cleveland9369

Oakland8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit7.33(1)2.33(1)0.89(1)51601

Minnesota6.33(5)3.33(3)0.764(2)5142-1

Texas7.33(1)5(9)0.668(3)42420

Boston4.33(9)3(2)0.662(4)42420

Los Angeles7(3)5(9)0.649(5)42511

Toronto7(3)5.5(13)0.609(6)42420

Cleveland5.33(8)4.33(5)0.594(7)4233-1

Tampa Bay6.33(5)5.33(11)0.578(8)33330

Seattle4.33(9)4(4)0.537(9)33421

Baltimore5.5(7)5.33(11)0.514(10)33330

Chicago3.5(12)4.67(6)0.371(11)2415-1

New York3.17(13)4.83(7)0.316(12)2415-1

Kansas City3.83(11)6(14)0.306(13)24240

Oakland2.67(14)4.83(7)0.252(14)24240

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