Monday, June 11, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 6/11/2007

Well, it arrived, as we knew that it must. And I'm not even a little bit surprised that it was this week. The Red Sox played a week below .500, finishing 3-4. I said last week that it would be tough to avoid the first extended losing streak of the season, and it was. They played a great game on Monday, playing on adrenalin, but lost in extra innings to a tough Oakland team. At which point, they apparently sent the bats ahead to Arizona, despite having three left with the A's. Only a spectacular effort from Schilling prevented them from getting swept.

But the fact is, despite all that was against them, and how poorly the week went, they were tied in the 6th yesterday, in a game that could have given them a winning week. If this is what a bad week looks like, then this team won't finish with a good record - they'll finish with a great record.

  • It is no secret that I've been a fan of Terry Francona, and that remains the case. I think he does an excellent job handling the team, a very good job handling the pitching, and, for the most part, he "gets it" as to what's important on the field. All that said, Julio Lugo is now officially killing this team in the lead-off spot. I was all in favor of the Lugo over Gonzalez upgrade, but he's now hitting an almost unbelievably bad .214/.275/.321/.596 over 57 games. Drop him to 9th, hit Youkilis/Pedroia in front of Ortiz/Ramirez and I think that would significantly improve the offense.


  • And the offense needs to improve. They're now down to an 844 run pace. They'll win a lot of games with their pitching at that pace, but it should be better. And I'd be shocked if Mike Lowell finished the season anywhere near his current .313/.374/.550/.924, particularly now that they're talking about a bad wrist. They have to have improvement from the black holes, CF and SS, in the lineup right now.


  • So the Red Sox finally have a "bad" week, at the same time as the Yankees have a good one, and the Yankee trolls are all popping up - "hey, they lost five games on their lead in 10 days!" and nonsense of that sort. Try this instead. Three weeks ago this morning, the Yankees were 10 1/2 out. This morning, with Boston having lost 5-of-8 while the Yankees have won 8-of-9, they're 9 1/2 out. Good luck catching up at that rate.


  • But they're still a very good team, as I pointed out while the yahoos were declaring the race over three weeks ago. It wasn't over then, and it's not over now.


  • Which doesn't mean that I think the Yankees will catch the Red Sox. I don't. But there are going to be stretches like this in the course of any season, and the Yankees are still too talented to finish below .500...







AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/11/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.21(5)3.92(2)0.627(1)392340221

Detroit6.03(1)4.95(10)0.589(2)37253626-1

Los Angeles4.98(6)4.11(3)0.587(3)382640242

Oakland4.18(12)3.45(1)0.586(4)36263428-2

New York5.61(2)4.77(8)0.573(5)35263031-5

Cleveland5.52(3)4.75(7)0.568(6)352637242

Seattle5.22(4)5(11)0.52(7)312833262

Baltimore4.38(11)4.3(4)0.508(8)32312934-3

Minnesota4.59(9)4.56(5)0.503(9)31303031-1

Toronto4.58(10)4.6(6)0.498(10)31313032-1

Texas4.95(7)5.9(13)0.42(11)26372340-3

Chicago3.93(14)4.8(9)0.41(12)243527323

Tampa Bay4.87(8)5.97(14)0.408(13)253628333

Kansas City4.05(13)5.16(12)0.391(14)25392440-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10557

Los Angeles10161

Cleveland9864

Detroit9468

Seattle9171




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10359

Los Angeles9864

Detroit9567

Cleveland9468

Oakland9369




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland3.29(12)1.43(1)0.821(1)61610

New York7.57(3)3.71(4)0.786(2)61610

Detroit8(2)4.67(6)0.728(3)42420

Los Angeles8.5(1)5(8)0.725(4)42420

Tampa Bay7.14(4)5.57(12)0.612(5)43521

Cleveland3.83(11)3(2)0.61(6)4233-1

Kansas City4.86(8)4.14(5)0.572(7)4334-1

Seattle5.5(5)5(8)0.543(8)33512

Boston3.14(14)3(2)0.521(9)4334-1

Toronto5.33(6)5.17(10)0.515(10)33330

Baltimore4(9)4.67(6)0.43(11)3324-1

Texas5(7)7.17(14)0.341(12)24331

Chicago3.29(12)5.29(11)0.295(13)25250

Minnesota4(9)6.67(13)0.282(14)24240

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