Monday, June 04, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 6/4/2007

For just the second time this year, the Red Sox have put together a .500 week, going 3-3. They also went 3-3 in week one, and have won more than they lost in every week in between. They also, after starting the season 28-0, have lost two games out of the last 3 in which they scored 5+ runs.

  • Sometimes you know what's going to happen. Sometimes you know it and it's wrong. And sometime you know it and it's right. When the Yankees took a 4-0 lead last night, I knew it was one of those nights, and that Boston wasn't going to score 4. I was wrong. When Pettitte came out after 4 1/3, I knew Boston would win going away. I was wrong again. When Alex Rodriguez faced Jon Papelbon in the 9th, I knew he was going to hit one out. I actually changed the channel, because I didn't want to see it. When I flipped back to ESPN, it was to see the back of Wily Mo Pena, and the ball bouncing in the bullpen. I wish that I'd been wrong again.


  • Fox ran a graphic on Saturday afternoon about game length. Over the last four years, Red Sox-Yankee games have run something like 3:22, while the average of all other games is 2:34 or something. I'm glad someone did the research, but I'd have guessed that the average Red Sox-Yankee game was actually longer. They are all grinders. It really is amazing to watch - the level of baseball that these two teams play is just qualitatively different, the quality of at-bats is different, the intensity of the game is different, than any other games during the season. It is very close to play-off baseball every time that they're on the same field.


  • All Boston had to do this weekend was win one, but this morning would be a lot brighter if they'd held on to that game last night. When Boston took the lead in the 5th, I was dying to hear Mike Francesa on the FAN this afternoon, but now it's going to be significantly less entertaining than it would have been. How close was Lugo to scoring in the 6th? How close was Ortiz to hitting it out against Rivera in the 9th? How close was Pedroia's ball to a 2-run double in the 8th? Very frustrating. And they could really have put the Yankees away, or close to it, with a win last night. Yes, there's not much difference between 14 1/2 and 12 1/2. Yes, Boston's the better team. But they've let the Yankees take 4-of-6 over the last two weeks and that reeks of wasted opportunity.


  • I wonder if the Sox have reached their hotel in Oakland yet. They haven't had a three-game losing streak yet this year, but they're sure set up for one now. Cold, wet, late last night, they fly out to the west coast to face the best pitcher in the AL so far this year tonight with their number 5 starter. And tomorrow's the day that the jet lag really kicks in. This could be unpleasant for the next couple of days.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/4/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.47(3)4.04(3)0.636(1)352037182

Detroit5.82(1)4.98(10)0.571(2)322432240

Oakland4.29(12)3.71(1)0.566(3)31242827-3

Cleveland5.71(2)4.95(9)0.565(4)312434213

Los Angeles4.62(8)4.02(2)0.564(5)332536223

New York5.35(4)4.91(8)0.54(6)29252430-5

Minnesota4.65(7)4.33(5)0.533(7)29262827-1

Seattle5.19(5)5(11)0.517(8)272628251

Baltimore4.42(11)4.26(4)0.517(9)29282730-2

Toronto4.5(10)4.54(6)0.496(10)28282729-1

Texas4.95(6)5.77(13)0.43(11)25322037-5

Chicago4.02(13)4.73(7)0.426(12)223025273

Tampa Bay4.57(9)6.02(14)0.377(13)203423313

Kansas City3.95(14)5.28(12)0.37(14)213621360




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10953

Los Angeles10161

Cleveland10062

Detroit9369

Seattle8676




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10557

Los Angeles9567

Cleveland9468

Detroit9270

Oakland8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Baltimore4.71(7)2.71(2)0.733(1)5243-1

Minnesota5.17(6)3.17(3)0.71(2)42420

Oakland3(12)2.17(1)0.645(3)42420

Toronto4.29(10)3.29(4)0.619(4)43521

Detroit8(1)6.14(12)0.619(5)4334-1

Seattle7.43(2)5.86(8)0.607(6)43430

Boston5.67(5)5.67(7)0.5(7)33330

New York5.83(4)6(10)0.487(8)33330

Los Angeles4.71(7)4.86(6)0.486(9)34522

Cleveland6.14(3)6.71(14)0.459(10)34340

Texas4.57(9)6.29(13)0.358(11)3425-1

Tampa Bay3.83(11)6(10)0.306(12)24331

Kansas City2.83(14)4.67(5)0.286(13)24240

Chicago3(12)5.86(8)0.227(14)2516-1

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