Monday, May 28, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 5/28/2007

Two out of three is a 108 win pace in a 162 games season. The Red Sox have maintained that pace pretty consistently since week 1. I still don't expect them to win 110-112, but the pace that they need to maintain to get to 100 wins drops every week...

  • This cannot continue forever, but for seven consecutive Monday's, Boston has improved its standings relative to the division lead. After one week of play, they were 3-3 and half a game back. After two weeks, they were tied for the division lead. They took the lead in week three, and have improved it every week since.


  • The Red Sox really only needed one of three in New York, while the Yankees needed a sweep. Boston got the one that it needed, but there was still an attitude in NY that, "now they're starting to move." The lead was down to 9 1/2. The last three days have put a signficant damper on that. The Yankees are further behind this morning than they've been all year, further behind than they've been in at least 12 years.


  • I don't know how many teams have had leads of 11 1/2 or more in the division and not gone on to win it. I'm thinking that it's probably not many. Which doesn't mean that this is over. It isn't, and you won't hear me say that it is. (Not this week, anyway.) But something unusual and unexpected has to happen for Boston not to win the East. No other team in that division is going to play well enough to make up its deficit - Boston will have to play much, much worse. Which means injuries.


  • Why am I still focused on the Yankees, when they're behind Baltimore and Toronto? Beyond the fact that they are the Yankees, I still believe them to be the 2nd best team in the division. Baltimore's not going to win 90 games. Toronto's not going to win 90 games. I still think that the Yankees could.


  • That said, this could be the year that they don't. Damon's breaking down, Giambi's breaking down, Abreu's breaking down, Rivera may be breaking down, Mussina's 38, Posada is 35, they don't have a bench. Things have gone badly for them so far, but aside from Wang's and Hughes' hamstring pulls, nothing that isn't at least understandable. The offensive level is a big issue. This was supposed to be an offensive monster, but they're on a pace to score "only" 857 runs, 4th in the AL. That's not going to get it done. They're on a pace to win 71 games (83 if they win at their Pythagorean pace the rest of the way.) I don't think that happens, but...






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/28/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.45(3)3.84(1)0.655(1)321734152

Cleveland5.65(1)4.69(7)0.584(2)282031173

Los Angeles4.61(8)3.9(3)0.575(3)292231202

Detroit5.51(2)4.82(10)0.561(4)282129201

Oakland4.45(11)3.9(2)0.56(5)27222425-3

New York5.29(4)4.77(9)0.547(6)26222127-5

Minnesota4.59(9)4.47(4)0.512(7)25242425-1

Seattle4.85(6)4.87(11)0.498(8)232324221

Baltimore4.38(12)4.48(5)0.49(9)24262327-1

Toronto4.53(10)4.71(8)0.482(10)24252227-2

Chicago4.18(13)4.56(6)0.46(11)212424213

Texas5(5)5.7(13)0.44(12)22281832-4

Tampa Bay4.67(7)6.02(14)0.386(13)192920281

Kansas City4.08(14)5.35(12)0.378(14)193219320




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston11250

Cleveland10557

Los Angeles9864

Detroit9666

Chicago8676




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10854

Cleveland9864

Los Angeles9567

Detroit9270

Oakland8775




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Seattle7.14(1)4(2)0.743(1)52520

Cleveland6.14(3)4.29(3)0.659(2)52520

Baltimore5.17(9)3.83(1)0.633(3)4233-1

Boston5.83(4)5.33(7)0.541(4)33421

Detroit5.5(6)5.17(6)0.529(5)3324-1

Minnesota5.33(8)5.33(7)0.5(6)33421

Chicago5.6(5)5.6(10)0.5(6)32320

Tampa Bay6.2(2)6.4(12)0.485(8)23230

Toronto4.5(11)4.83(4)0.467(9)33330

New York4.5(11)4.83(4)0.467(9)3324-1

Los Angeles5(10)5.5(9)0.457(11)33421

Texas5.5(6)6.5(13)0.424(12)3315-2

Oakland3.83(14)6(11)0.306(13)24240

Kansas City4.17(13)7.67(14)0.247(14)15241

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