Monday, May 21, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 5/21

3-1 against one of the best teams in the AL. 2-1 against one of the best teams in the NL. During a week that featured two rain outs, two double-headers and two starts by minor leaguers because of the Beckett injury. That's another very good week.

  • There's a debate raging in the Boston media (OK, among the nimrod WEEI hosts) about whether the division race is over yet. Of course it's not. Historical examples of teams coming from that far back are just not as rare as we'd like them to be. Everyone remembers 1978. The Red Sox made up a 9 game deficit in 3 weeks in 1988 (passing 5 teams in the process). Just 3 years ago, 2004, the Yankees had a 10 1/2 game lead in the East on August 14 and saw it cut to 2 1/2 three weeks later on September 4. They held on, but everyone thought it was over in early August, and no one thought it was over in early September.


  • Does that mean that I don't think that Boston will win the east? No, it doesn't. Are the Red Sox an excellent bet to win the AL East right now? They sure are. But what if Schilling and Matsuzaka join Beckett on the DL next week? It's never over until it's over (ask the 2004 Yankees about that) and this isn't over, and won't be for a while. The Yankees have got too much talent to continue to flounder this way.


  • Let me clarify that last statement. The Yankees have got too much talent if everyone plays the way they've played in the past. Is this the year that Damon, Giambi and Abreu all get old? Is this the year that Mariano isn't Mariano anymore? Was Cano a fluke - have teams figured something out about how to deal with him? None of those are unreasonable questions. If Boston outscores NY, as they've done thus far, the Red Sox win the division easily, going away. The Yankees figured to be a dominant offensive team - if they're not, all bets are off. If they are, they're competitive, and win 90+.


  • Even if the Yankees win 90+, the Red Sox are, right now, a good bet to win 100+. They've played at a 113-win pace thus far (and it's a legitimate 113-win pace, not a fluky, lucky 113-win pace) and they just need to go 70-49, a 95-win pace, the rest of the way to reach 100. I thought that they were better than a 95 win team before the season started, but that's all that they've got to do to reach 100. I think that the Yankees will win a lot of games, but I don't think that they'll reach 100.


  • Boston is currently on a pace to score 875 runs and allow 588. Those would be outstanding totals.


  • There's been some talk about "what will it look like when Manny starts to hit!" To temper that a little bit, let me suggest that Mike Lowell cannot sustain his current levels. Cora's over his head. Varitek won't maintain a .377 OBP, though it wouldn't surprise me if his SLG finished up slightly higher than his current .415. They can expect more from Manny and Crisp and Lugo, I think. On the whole, the offense has been pretty close to what I expect it to be. I expected around 900 runs, and run-scoring is down across the board. I don't expect a lot more than what we've seen so far.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/21/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.4(4)3.63(2)0.674(1)291430131

Oakland4.53(7)3.6(1)0.604(2)26172221-4

Los Angeles4.56(6)3.69(3)0.595(3)271827180

Cleveland5.56(1)4.76(8)0.571(4)231826153

Detroit5.51(2)4.77(10)0.566(5)241927163

New York5.4(3)4.76(9)0.558(6)23191923-4

Minnesota4.49(9)4.35(4)0.514(7)22212023-2

Toronto4.53(7)4.7(7)0.484(8)21221924-2

Baltimore4.27(12)4.57(6)0.469(9)21232024-1

Chicago4(14)4.43(5)0.454(10)182221193

Seattle4.44(11)5.03(11)0.443(11)172219202

Texas4.93(5)5.59(13)0.443(12)19251727-2

Kansas City4.07(13)5.04(12)0.403(13)18271728-1

Tampa Bay4.49(9)5.98(14)0.372(14)162718252




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston11349

Cleveland10359

Detroit10260

Los Angeles9765

Chicago8577




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston11052

Los Angeles9765

Cleveland9567

Oakland9468

Detroit9468




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Los Angeles5.86(2)2.86(2)0.788(1)61610

Cleveland7.17(1)4.17(7)0.73(2)42511

Toronto4.67(10)2.83(1)0.714(3)42420

Kansas City5.14(6)3.71(4)0.645(4)52520

Detroit5.57(4)4.14(6)0.632(5)43430

Oakland4.71(9)3.71(4)0.607(6)4334-1

Boston4.86(7)4.43(9)0.542(7)43521

New York4.5(11)4.17(7)0.535(8)3324-1

Texas5.86(2)5.86(13)0.5(9)4325-2

Tampa Bay5.33(5)6(14)0.446(10)33330

Baltimore2.67(14)3.17(3)0.422(11)3324-1

Chicago4.83(8)5.83(12)0.415(12)24331

Seattle3.83(13)4.83(10)0.396(13)24240

Minnesota4.33(12)5.5(11)0.393(14)24240

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