So the Boston Red Sox will finish April with the biggest lead of any division leader (well, unless Toronto and Milwaukee both win tonight.) They'll be at least tied for the best record in baseball. They're 6 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees, who are probably, results to date notwithstanding, one of the best two-four teams in the AL.
- Two weeks ago, pointing out the schedule and the NY/TOR injury issues, I said, "Is some team poised to open up a lead in the AL East? If one is, it should be the Boston Red Sox...7-6 would be a wasted opportunity. 8-5 is the minimum acceptable record over this stretch. If they really want to take advantage of it, they need to go 9-4 or better..." Well, they went 9-4 (3 losses to Toronto, 1 to NY.) In addition, the Yankees lost to Tampa and Toronto, helping out. They took advantage of it...
- It still feels like they haven't hit yet. Yet they're third in the AL in runs/game, on a pace to score 844. I think that they'll score more than that. They've gotten great production from Alex Cora, Eric Hinske and Mike Lowell, offsetting, somewhat, Manny's invisibility and the very poor starts of Pedroia and Crisp.
- I think that a sweep in NY would be the only way the weekend could have been better. If they were going to lose one, I think it worked out perfectly. The panic escalated when Boston won on Friday against New York's best pitcher, another game in which the Yankees had the lead. Saturday was the best pitching matchup of the weekend for Boston, and that was the game that New York won, when a freak injury brought in a pitcher who Boston wasn't expecting to face, and the Red Sox bats did nothing (and hit into some bad luck as well.) That set up Sunday as a series-winner, with New York's best starter facing Boston's worst. And the Red Sox won again. They didn't leave NY with the Yankees on an up note - their brief feelings of maybe coming out of it were immediately smacked down. Perfect.
- The Sox and Yankees have played 6 times in the last 10 days. New York led in all 6 of the games. Boston won 5 of them. That's just brutal, if you're a Yankee fan (or a Yankee)...
- Now to tone down the elation, a bit. On May 6, 2005, the Yankees lost to Oakland, dropping their record to 11-19, leaving them 9 games behind the Baltimore Orioles and (does this sound familiar?) 6 1/2 games behind Boston. New York promptly won 10 straight and 19 of 21, leaving them, just three weeks later, on May 27, 1 1/2 in front of Boston. Do I expect this Yankee team to win 10 straight or 19 of 21? Nope. Not with that pitching. Do I expect them to play significantly better than they've played so far, and be competitive for a play-off spot to the end? Absolutely...
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/30/2007
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Boston | 5.21 | (3) | 3.5 | (1) | 0.674 | (1) | 16 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 0
| | Toronto | 5.13 | (4) | 4.38 | (6) | 0.572 | (2) | 14 | 10 | 12 | 12 | -2
| | Cleveland | 5.23 | (2) | 4.73 | (8) | 0.546 | (3) | 12 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 2
| | Minnesota | 4.6 | (8) | 4.16 | (4) | 0.546 | (3) | 14 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 0
| | Los Angeles | 4.4 | (10) | 4.04 | (3) | 0.539 | (5) | 13 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 1
| | Oakland | 3.8 | (14) | 3.56 | (2) | 0.53 | (6) | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | -1
| | New York | 5.7 | (1) | 5.43 | (12) | 0.521 | (7) | 12 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -3
| | Detroit | 4.96 | (6) | 4.75 | (9) | 0.52 | (8) | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 1
| | Chicago | 4.13 | (12) | 4.22 | (5) | 0.49 | (9) | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 1
| | Baltimore | 4.36 | (11) | 4.48 | (7) | 0.488 | (10) | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 0
| | Seattle | 4.5 | (9) | 5.15 | (10) | 0.439 | (11) | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 1
| | Texas | 4.88 | (7) | 5.79 | (13) | 0.422 | (12) | 10 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 5.04 | (5) | 6.48 | (14) | 0.387 | (13) | 10 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 1
| | Kansas City | 3.92 | (13) | 5.16 | (11) | 0.377 | (14) | 9 | 16 | 8 | 17 | -1
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Boston | 108 | 54
|
| Cleveland | 103 | 59
|
| Minnesota | 91 | 71
|
| Los Angeles | 91 | 71
|
| Detroit | 88 | 74
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Boston | 109 | 53
|
| Toronto | 91 | 71
|
| Cleveland | 90 | 72
|
| Minnesota | 89 | 73
|
| Los Angeles | 88 | 74
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Toronto | 6.83 | (1) | 3.83 | (3) | 0.742 | (1) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0
| | Cleveland | 6.29 | (3) | 4.14 | (5) | 0.682 | (2) | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1
| | Los Angeles | 6.43 | (2) | 4.29 | (6) | 0.677 | (3) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0
| | Seattle | 4.33 | (9) | 3.17 | (1) | 0.64 | (4) | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1
| | Boston | 5.14 | (6) | 4.43 | (7) | 0.568 | (5) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0
| | Minnesota | 4.14 | (10) | 3.71 | (2) | 0.55 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1
| | Oakland | 4 | (11) | 3.86 | (4) | 0.517 | (7) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1
| | Chicago | 4.5 | (8) | 4.67 | (8) | 0.483 | (8) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Detroit | 5.5 | (4) | 5.83 | (11) | 0.473 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Kansas City | 4 | (11) | 5 | (9) | 0.399 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1
| | Texas | 5.33 | (5) | 6.67 | (12) | 0.399 | (11) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 4.86 | (7) | 6.86 | (14) | 0.347 | (12) | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2
| | Baltimore | 3.14 | (14) | 5.14 | (10) | 0.289 | (13) | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1
| | New York | 3.83 | (13) | 6.83 | (13) | 0.258 | (14) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| |
|---|
Labels: 2007, baseball, pythagorean, Red Sox
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