Monday, April 30, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 4/30/2007

So the Boston Red Sox will finish April with the biggest lead of any division leader (well, unless Toronto and Milwaukee both win tonight.) They'll be at least tied for the best record in baseball. They're 6 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees, who are probably, results to date notwithstanding, one of the best two-four teams in the AL.


  • Two weeks ago, pointing out the schedule and the NY/TOR injury issues, I said, "Is some team poised to open up a lead in the AL East? If one is, it should be the Boston Red Sox...7-6 would be a wasted opportunity. 8-5 is the minimum acceptable record over this stretch. If they really want to take advantage of it, they need to go 9-4 or better..." Well, they went 9-4 (3 losses to Toronto, 1 to NY.) In addition, the Yankees lost to Tampa and Toronto, helping out. They took advantage of it...


  • It still feels like they haven't hit yet. Yet they're third in the AL in runs/game, on a pace to score 844. I think that they'll score more than that. They've gotten great production from Alex Cora, Eric Hinske and Mike Lowell, offsetting, somewhat, Manny's invisibility and the very poor starts of Pedroia and Crisp.


  • I think that a sweep in NY would be the only way the weekend could have been better. If they were going to lose one, I think it worked out perfectly. The panic escalated when Boston won on Friday against New York's best pitcher, another game in which the Yankees had the lead. Saturday was the best pitching matchup of the weekend for Boston, and that was the game that New York won, when a freak injury brought in a pitcher who Boston wasn't expecting to face, and the Red Sox bats did nothing (and hit into some bad luck as well.) That set up Sunday as a series-winner, with New York's best starter facing Boston's worst. And the Red Sox won again. They didn't leave NY with the Yankees on an up note - their brief feelings of maybe coming out of it were immediately smacked down. Perfect.


  • The Sox and Yankees have played 6 times in the last 10 days. New York led in all 6 of the games. Boston won 5 of them. That's just brutal, if you're a Yankee fan (or a Yankee)...


  • Now to tone down the elation, a bit. On May 6, 2005, the Yankees lost to Oakland, dropping their record to 11-19, leaving them 9 games behind the Baltimore Orioles and (does this sound familiar?) 6 1/2 games behind Boston. New York promptly won 10 straight and 19 of 21, leaving them, just three weeks later, on May 27, 1 1/2 in front of Boston. Do I expect this Yankee team to win 10 straight or 19 of 21? Nope. Not with that pitching. Do I expect them to play significantly better than they've played so far, and be competitive for a play-off spot to the end? Absolutely...







AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/30/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.21(3)3.5(1)0.674(1)1681680

Toronto5.13(4)4.38(6)0.572(2)14101212-2

Cleveland5.23(2)4.73(8)0.546(3)12101482

Minnesota4.6(8)4.16(4)0.546(3)141114110

Los Angeles4.4(10)4.04(3)0.539(5)131214111

Oakland3.8(14)3.56(2)0.53(6)13121213-1

New York5.7(1)5.43(12)0.521(7)1211914-3

Detroit4.96(6)4.75(9)0.52(8)121213111

Chicago4.13(12)4.22(5)0.49(9)111212111

Baltimore4.36(11)4.48(7)0.488(10)121312130

Seattle4.5(9)5.15(10)0.439(11)91110101

Texas4.88(7)5.79(13)0.422(12)101410140

Tampa Bay5.04(5)6.48(14)0.387(13)101511141

Kansas City3.92(13)5.16(11)0.377(14)916817-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10854

Cleveland10359

Minnesota9171

Los Angeles9171

Detroit8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10953

Toronto9171

Cleveland9072

Minnesota8973

Los Angeles8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Toronto6.83(1)3.83(3)0.742(1)42420

Cleveland6.29(3)4.14(5)0.682(2)52611

Los Angeles6.43(2)4.29(6)0.677(3)52520

Seattle4.33(9)3.17(1)0.64(4)42511

Boston5.14(6)4.43(7)0.568(5)43430

Minnesota4.14(10)3.71(2)0.55(6)4334-1

Oakland4(11)3.86(4)0.517(7)4334-1

Chicago4.5(8)4.67(8)0.483(8)33330

Detroit5.5(4)5.83(11)0.473(9)33330

Kansas City4(11)5(9)0.399(10)3425-1

Texas5.33(5)6.67(12)0.399(11)24240

Tampa Bay4.86(7)6.86(14)0.347(12)25432

Baltimore3.14(14)5.14(10)0.289(13)2516-1

New York3.83(13)6.83(13)0.258(14)2415-1

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