Monday, April 16, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 4/16

Well, that's a week. 4 games, 2 rain-outs. A shutout loss in a pitchers' duel, and 3 blow-out wins, 2 of the blow-outs coming from late inning explosions that opened up close games.

  • The Red Sox scored 32 runs in four games, even though they were shutout once.


  • As a result of having outscored the opposition 32-7 this week, the Red Sox now have far and away the best run differential in the AL, having outscored their opponents by 23 runs thus far. Only the Mets, at 27, have a better differential.


  • The best 3 AL teams by run differential are in the AL East, as the Yankees and Blue Jays are tied for 2nd, having outscored their opponents by 12.


  • All small sample size caveats apply.


  • They've done this despite the fact that 1/3 of their batting order (Ramirez, Varitek, Crisp) have been very bad so far.


  • Friday night, we saw an example of perfect bullpen usage. Frankly, that's the usage that Bill James and others have talked about, the usage that the Red Sox tried to implement back in 2003, a usage that the media has mocked for four years as "closer by committee." The big outs in that game weren't in the ninth. They were in the eighth. With Vladimir Guerrero, and then Garrett Anderson, representing the tying run. Terry Francona recognized that the game was on the line right there, and went to Papelbon. Who was, once again, dominant. Having saved the game, the Red Sox proceeded to score 6 more in the bottom of the eighth. Papelbon would have gotten a save for pitching the ninth, but he went to the showers instead. No save was recorded and the "closer" didn't finish the game. But the best pitcher in the bullpen got the most important outs.


  • Right now, Boston has won two straight and 4 of 5. It doesn't feel like it, though, because they've only played 4 games in the last 7 days. I'm not optimistic about them getting a game in today, either...




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/16/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.1(5)2.8(1)0.75(1)7364-1

Cleveland5(6)3.89(5)0.613(2)63630

New York5.82(1)4.73(10)0.594(3)7456-2

Toronto5.58(2)4.58(9)0.589(4)75750

Detroit4.08(9)3.92(6)0.519(5)66751

Seattle5.25(3)5.13(12)0.511(6)44531

Minnesota4.08(9)4(7)0.509(7)66751

Baltimore4.25(8)4.17(8)0.509(8)66660

Chicago3.45(11)3.82(3)0.454(9)56560

Los Angeles3.42(12)3.83(4)0.448(10)57661

Oakland3.15(13)3.54(2)0.448(10)67670

Texas4.83(7)5.58(13)0.434(12)57570

Tampa Bay5.17(4)6.67(14)0.385(13)57570

Kansas City3(14)4.75(11)0.301(14)4839-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Cleveland10854

Seattle10161

Boston9765

Toronto9567

Detroit9567




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston12042

Cleveland10062

New York9567

Toronto9567

Detroit8577




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston8(1)1.75(1)0.942(1)4031-1

Baltimore4(8)2.5(2)0.703(2)42420

New York5.17(4)3.5(6)0.671(3)4233-1

Toronto4.86(6)4(8)0.588(4)43430

Cleveland3.67(10)3.17(4)0.567(5)33421

Detroit3.71(9)3.29(5)0.556(6)43430

Chicago3(12)2.67(3)0.554(7)33330

Seattle6(3)5.6(10)0.532(8)32320

Texas6.5(2)7.17(14)0.455(9)33330

Oakland3.17(11)3.83(7)0.413(10)24331

Minnesota4.14(7)5.14(9)0.402(11)34340

Tampa Bay5.14(5)6.57(13)0.39(12)34340

Kansas City2.83(13)5.83(11)0.211(13)15150

Los Angeles2.6(14)6(12)0.178(14)14140

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