Monday Pythagorean - 4/16

Well, that's a week. 4 games, 2 rain-outs. A shutout loss in a pitchers' duel, and 3 blow-out wins, 2 of the blow-outs coming from late inning explosions that opened up close games.

• The Red Sox scored 32 runs in four games, even though they were shutout once.



• As a result of having outscored the opposition 32-7 this week, the Red Sox now have far and away the best run differential in the AL, having outscored their opponents by 23 runs thus far. Only the Mets, at 27, have a better differential.



• The best 3 AL teams by run differential are in the AL East, as the Yankees and Blue Jays are tied for 2nd, having outscored their opponents by 12.



• All small sample size caveats apply.



• They've done this despite the fact that 1/3 of their batting order (Ramirez, Varitek, Crisp) have been very bad so far.



• Friday night, we saw an example of perfect bullpen usage. Frankly, that's the usage that Bill James and others have talked about, the usage that the Red Sox tried to implement back in 2003, a usage that the media has mocked for four years as "closer by committee." The big outs in that game weren't in the ninth. They were in the eighth. With Vladimir Guerrero, and then Garrett Anderson, representing the tying run. Terry Francona recognized that the game was on the line right there, and went to Papelbon. Who was, once again, dominant. Having saved the game, the Red Sox proceeded to score 6 more in the bottom of the eighth. Papelbon would have gotten a save for pitching the ninth, but he went to the showers instead. No save was recorded and the "closer" didn't finish the game. But the best pitcher in the bullpen got the most important outs.



• Right now, Boston has won two straight and 4 of 5. It doesn't feel like it, though, because they've only played 4 games in the last 7 days. I'm not optimistic about them getting a game in today, either...

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/16/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.1	(5)	2.8	(1)	0.75	(1)	7	3	6	4	-1
Cleveland	5	(6)	3.89	(5)	0.613	(2)	6	3	6	3	0
New York	5.82	(1)	4.73	(10)	0.594	(3)	7	4	5	6	-2
Toronto	5.58	(2)	4.58	(9)	0.589	(4)	7	5	7	5	0
Detroit	4.08	(9)	3.92	(6)	0.519	(5)	6	6	7	5	1
Seattle	5.25	(3)	5.13	(12)	0.511	(6)	4	4	5	3	1
Minnesota	4.08	(9)	4	(7)	0.509	(7)	6	6	7	5	1
Baltimore	4.25	(8)	4.17	(8)	0.509	(8)	6	6	6	6	0
Chicago	3.45	(11)	3.82	(3)	0.454	(9)	5	6	5	6	0
Los Angeles	3.42	(12)	3.83	(4)	0.448	(10)	5	7	6	6	1
Oakland	3.15	(13)	3.54	(2)	0.448	(10)	6	7	6	7	0
Texas	4.83	(7)	5.58	(13)	0.434	(12)	5	7	5	7	0
Tampa Bay	5.17	(4)	6.67	(14)	0.385	(13)	5	7	5	7	0
Kansas City	3	(14)	4.75	(11)	0.301	(14)	4	8	3	9	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Cleveland	108	54
Seattle	101	61
Boston	97	65
Toronto	95	67
Detroit	95	67

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	120	42
Cleveland	100	62
New York	95	67
Toronto	95	67
Detroit	85	77

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	8	(1)	1.75	(1)	0.942	(1)	4	0	3	1	-1
Baltimore	4	(8)	2.5	(2)	0.703	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
New York	5.17	(4)	3.5	(6)	0.671	(3)	4	2	3	3	-1
Toronto	4.86	(6)	4	(8)	0.588	(4)	4	3	4	3	0
Cleveland	3.67	(10)	3.17	(4)	0.567	(5)	3	3	4	2	1
Detroit	3.71	(9)	3.29	(5)	0.556	(6)	4	3	4	3	0
Chicago	3	(12)	2.67	(3)	0.554	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Seattle	6	(3)	5.6	(10)	0.532	(8)	3	2	3	2	0
Texas	6.5	(2)	7.17	(14)	0.455	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Oakland	3.17	(11)	3.83	(7)	0.413	(10)	2	4	3	3	1
Minnesota	4.14	(7)	5.14	(9)	0.402	(11)	3	4	3	4	0
Tampa Bay	5.14	(5)	6.57	(13)	0.39	(12)	3	4	3	4	0
Kansas City	2.83	(13)	5.83	(11)	0.211	(13)	1	5	1	5	0
Los Angeles	2.6	(14)	6	(12)	0.178	(14)	1	4	1	4	0