Monday, April 23, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 4/23/2007

So they swept the Yankees after taking 2-3 from Toronto. That makes for a good week.

  • The Red Sox played 4 games at Fenway this week. They scored 7 runs in each of those 4 games. Anyone want to do the math on the average runs scored at home by Boston this week?


  • The conventional wisdom suggested, entering the weekend, that the Red Sox had a big advantage in the starting pitching comparisons. They may have, and they showed some advantage, but not as much as was expected. The Yankees' starter's ERA was an abysmal 8.56 for the weekend. The Sox' starter's ERA was a not-really-all-that-much-better 6.53. There was, however, a big difference between the team's bullpens. Boston's relievers put up a 1.42, New York's allowed a 6.98. That made the difference, as the Yankees took leads into the 7th in two of the three games.


  • In other regards, the Boston starters were much better. The shortest Boston start (6 2/3 from Beckett) was longer than the longest New York start (6 1/3 from Pettitte.) The Sox K/BB ratio was 4.75 - the Yankee starters walked as many as they struck out. Red Sox starters allowed 1.4 baserunners per inning, Yankee starters allowed 2.12. The ERA differences don't fully reflect the difference in performance.


  • Boston's starters pitched 7 more innings than New York's and its bullpen threw 4 fewer innings. (Boston didn't hit in the bottom of the 9th in any of the games.) That certainly helps, and on the whole, the series was a lot more stressful for the Yankee relievers than the Boston relievers.


  • Only five times in baseball history has a team hit four consecutive home runs. In two of those five, JD Drew hit the second. That figures to give Drew a unique place in baseball history for a long time - the only man to homer in two different streaks of four straight.


  • Interestingly, when the Indians became the second team ever to do it, back in 1963, the third HR in that string was hit by Tito Francona, Boston manager Terry Francona's father.


  • That Indians team was the first to hit four straight against the same pitcher. The Red Sox last night became the second.


  • Not to forget what preceded the weekend, the win in Toronto on Thursday was a big win. They split the first two games of the series, and had Tavarez facing Halladay, which is a bad match-up for Boston. The big comeback, helped by Halladay's removal, featured Manny's first HR of the year, and brought the team home on a high note.


  • Jon Papelbon had 2 saves in the first two weeks of the season. He had four this week. He's also thrown in 2 straight games and 4 of 5. It would behoove them to score runs tonight, because he won't be available.


  • They're also looking at Halladay vs. Tavarez again tomorrow, so it would be a lot more comfortable to win tonight, and not be forced to try to stave off a sweep tomorrow.



One more good week would get them into May with a little bit of a cushion in the East...





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/23/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.24(2)3.12(1)0.721(1)1251250

New York6.35(1)4.94(9)0.613(2)10789-2

Baltimore4.83(4)4.22(5)0.562(3)1081171

Minnesota4.78(5)4.33(6)0.545(4)1081171

Detroit4.78(5)4.39(7)0.539(5)1081080

Oakland3.72(13)3.44(2)0.535(6)10899-1

Toronto4.56(10)4.56(8)0.5(7)99810-1

Chicago4(11)4.06(4)0.493(8)89981

Cleveland4.73(7)5(10)0.475(9)78871

Los Angeles3.61(14)3.94(3)0.46(10)810991

Texas4.72(8)5.5(12)0.431(11)8108100

Tampa Bay5.11(3)6.33(14)0.403(12)7117110

Seattle4.57(9)6(13)0.378(13)59590

Kansas City3.89(12)5.22(11)0.368(14)711612-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston11448

Baltimore9963

Minnesota9963

Detroit9072

Chicago8676




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston11745

New York9765

Baltimore9270

Minnesota8973

Detroit8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Oakland5.2(7)3.2(1)0.709(1)4132-1

Boston5.43(6)3.57(2)0.683(2)52611

Baltimore6(4)4.33(4)0.645(3)42511

New York7.33(1)5.33(8)0.642(4)4233-1

Minnesota6.17(2)5(7)0.595(5)42420

Detroit6.17(2)5.33(8)0.566(6)33330

Chicago5(8)4.5(5)0.548(7)33421

Los Angeles4(12)4.17(3)0.481(8)33330

Kansas City5.67(5)6.17(12)0.461(9)33330

Tampa Bay5(8)5.67(11)0.443(10)3324-1

Texas4.5(10)5.33(8)0.423(11)33330

Cleveland4.33(11)6.67(13)0.313(12)24240

Toronto2.5(14)4.5(5)0.254(13)2415-1

Seattle3.67(13)7.17(14)0.227(14)1506-1

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